KiminNM I do not have much problems sleeping...maybe because of my activity on this forum...

"Accept what you can not change - change what you can not concept - learn to see the difference" ...I remember some disaster movie with a tsunami coming in, a budhist munk did not stop his meditation...what will be, will be....

Most problems come from high speed spread....even if most of it will be "mild" allmost ALL people seem vulnarable...

Also lots of other countries see Omicron cases going high speed-even in tripple vaccinated...(other link for US-SF story [url]https://www.sfchronicle.com/health/article/Omicron-outbreak-from-out-of-state-wedding-tied-16685845.php[/url] or https://www.sfchronicle.com/health/article/Omicron-outbreak-from-out-of-state-wedding-tied-16685845.php ; The infected Kaiser staff members — who range in age from 18 to 49 — had attended a wedding on Nov. 27 in Wisconsin, where at least one Alameda County attendee had recently returned from international travel, according to public health officials.

DJ Travel related...

DJ, part 2,

Some background...I do not mention hyperinflation...WAR often is choosen as a way out of a crisis. After NApoleon, NAzi's now NAto is moving east "to stop Russian agression"...[url]https://www.rt.com/russia/542859-nato-ukraine-georgia-plans/[/url] or https://www.rt.com/russia/542859-nato-ukraine-georgia-plans/ and [url]https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/russia-trouble-coming-fast[/url] or https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/russia-trouble-coming-fast ; 

We in the USA and our allies in Europe are in the wrong here; we are the aggressors, trying to put missiles close enough to Russia to wipe them out without warning.

Russia simply cannot allow this; it is an existential threat to them.

Russia has made it clear for years they cannot allow our new "missile defense" systems into Ukraine because the warheads can be swapped-out, inside the launcher where no one can see it being done, and changed from a conventional warhead to a nuclear warhead.

We in the US/NATO are doing to Russia, what the then-Soviet Union did to us in 1963 with Cuba.   Back in the early 1960's the US detected Soviet Union medium, and intermediate range nuclear missiles in Cuba.   At the time, our President, John F. Kennedy, had to take action to stop what was taking place.

President Kennedy made it clear that either those missiles had to be removed or the US would invade Cuba and destroy them.  It was a matter of U.S. Survival.   Today, we in the US/NATO are doing the same thing to Russia!   We are the bad guys in this.

DJ; Trying to include Ukraine, Georgia in NATO, putting weapons of mass destruction close to the Russian borders, is a red line for Putin. Given also talks with Iran, China only show "western arrogance" we may be getting into another crisis. Why the US has to put US troops and weapons in Taiwan ? Why Biden does not want to return to the Iran deal made under Obama ? 

Of course Media-Experts-Politics (MEP) in the west come with their own "reality". Not mentioning Ukraine, Georgia [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Enlargement_of_NATO#Current_status[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Enlargement_of_NATO#Current_status joining NATO, stationing nuclear missiles in those countries MEP goes for the "bad Putin" story. US,UK,and a few others-being involved in lots of wars in Islamic countries boycot China winter olympics "in solidarity with China/Uyghur muslims"...after recruiting some of them to join IS (via Turkey)....

"Action speaks louder then words"...Western "leaders" live in a tunnel vision...in many ways out of contact with any reality...on climate change, this pandemic, hyper inflation, international relations...Learning the hard way seems to be the only option left....

-[url]https://twitter.com/x2IndSpeculator[/url] or https://twitter.com/x2IndSpeculator  (part retweets) has lots of info on this worsening pandemic-with healthcare collapse just days away, but also hyperinflation because "printing money" to pay "private partners" for testing, PPE, masks zillions...(some of those "private partners" happen to be sponsors/family members of government parties...legal corruption...) comes at a price...

DJ And it is not even clear if Omicron will result in "mild" disease...Omicron is splitting up in many forms [url]https://github.com/cov-lineages/pango-designation/issues/366[/url] or https://github.com/cov-lineages/pango-designation/issues/366 and [url]https://github.com/cov-lineages/pango-designation/issues/360[/url] or https://github.com/cov-lineages/pango-designation/issues/360 . Delta reacting allready on Omicron [url]https://github.com/cov-lineages/pango-designation/issues/354[/url] or https://github.com/cov-lineages/pango-designation/issues/354 ; Among the AY.123 sequences growing in Belgium, 73 sequences are misdesignated by covspectrum to be AY.43 and appear to show a growth pattern. AY.123 shares the ORF7b:E3* codon found in some Omicron sequences and has grown to approximately 8% proportion in Belgium as well. This sub-lineage therefore comprises of 48% of Belgian AY.123 sequences in weeks 46 and 47. The lineage has also recently been detected in the UK and Israel for the first time.

DJ It looks like Delta is "far from over" (and Delta is not "mild")....will Omicron and some Delta variants mix up and become a new variant-even worse-as soon as in January ????

Via twitter another horror-link ; [url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/coronavirus/omicron-in-norway-a-warning-to-the-world/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/coronavirus/omicron-in-norway-a-warning-to-the-world/ ;

DJ,  Part 1,

Some background; 

-[url]http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2021/12/planetwide-ecocide-the-crime-against-life-on-earth.html[/url] or http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2021/12/planetwide-ecocide-the-crime-against-life-on-earth.html DJ US tornadoes killing over 100 people of course are related to "climate change"...however "Media-Experts-Politics" love to deny/downplay this...This pandemic is related to climate change bringing many forms of life in crisis when they lose their habitat/feeding grounds...Making those forms of live more vulnarable for all kind of diseases and bringing them closer to humans/other species to spread...

[url]https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/israel-calls-snap-military-drill-on-a-saturday-night[/url] or https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/israel-calls-snap-military-drill-on-a-saturday-night HT proberbly is correct; The US is NOT willing to (join Israel in any) attack on Iran. More "sanctions", sabotage will be no problem, open en direct war with Iran would further damage the US. 

First of all even some US politicians "may have heard something on this pandemic"...so starting yet another war would be bad timing. Second international support for more US agression is "limited"; BoJo-UK may join in....Even US politics may have realized the US is "losing ground".

-Will Russia invade Ukraine to stop it from "joining NATO moving east-giving room for missiles even closer to Moscow" ? I think we may see "regime change ping-pong"...The west did end a pro-Russian government via its secret services, Russia-and its allies/friends may now try to retake Kiev-government...

Turkey/Erdogan did increase his influence in Ukraine-also needs good relations with Russia/Putin for economic reasons. (If the EU does not like that-why did the EU keep Turkey out of the EU ???? I believe the EU may have been a "force for the good" in EurAsia...but they messed it up...again.)

The present Ukraine government is aware it can not win a war with Russia, will not get any serious help from "the west"...Putin also knows that.  Russia-Iran-China etc. may be willing to invest in Ukraine. Ukraine now more poor then some north African countries....Also suffering with lots of health issues...In Ukraine nationalists face the choice of uniting the country-bringing back much more Russian influence, however balanced by Turkey, Iran, China, India...or to continue this endless war with no perspective sinking deeper in debts and healthissues...

China will "do all it can" to avoid military action against Taiwan...However US troops/missiles in Taiwan are crossing red lines for China....A-symetric action could mean China may react on US military in Taiwan by taking over the Panama/Suez-canal or so...The Myanmar military coup most likely was related to giving China land links to the Indian Ocean (a.o.) via Myanmar...Global trade demands global infrastructure...China did "take over" Entebbe-the Uganda airport-being a major "hub" for air transport to Africa...

-This pandemic; numbers [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ 

Weekend-lower numbers, global cases 509,284 trend -2%, deaths reported 5,736 trend -3% DJ-These numbers could indicate Delta may be "limited" by both restrictions and increase of immunity (both after infection or/and after vaccination). 

Looking at "regions" most of them see cases going down on a regional level (Europe, North America, Asia all -4%, South America -11%, Oceania -0,1%). ALL regions see death-trends going down except Oceania deaths +31% (Australia deaths +12%, Papua New Guinea (population 9,2 million) +188%; 8 deaths last week, 23 this week). North America deaths -0,8%, Africa deaths -7%, Europe -1%. 

In Africa Ghana, Sierra Leone reporting high % of increase but both reporting and testing are "poor"...Still it may indicate Omicron also increasing in West Africa...

Zimbabwe cases +479%, Namibia cases +451%, Mozambique +336%, Tanzania +333%, Botswana +101%, South Africa +76%, Kenya +55% indicating Omicron now spreading all over the south part of Africa...Central African Republic (CAR)+400% , Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC, population 93,5 million) +299% ...[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kinshasa[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kinshasa ; 

Kinshasa (/kɪnˈʃɑːsə/; French: [kinʃasa]; Lingala: Kinsásá), formerly Léopoldville (Dutch: Leopoldstad), is the capital and the largest city of the Democratic Republic of the Congo. With a total population of 15 million as of 2021, it is the most populous city in Africa.

Once a site of fishing and trading villages situated along the Congo River, Kinshasa is now one of the world's fastest growing megacities. It faces Brazzaville, the capital of the neighbouring Republic of the Congo; the two cities are the world's second-closest pair of capital cities (after Vatican City and Rome).

-

Kinshasa is Africa's third-largest metropolitan area after Cairo and Lagos.^[3] It is also the world's largest Francophone urban area, with French being the language of government, education, media, public services and high-end commerce in the city, while Lingala is used as a lingua franca in the street.^[7] Kinshasa hosted the 14th Francophonie Summit in October 2012.^[8]

Residents of Kinshasa are known as Kinois (in French and sometimes in English) or Kinshasans (English). The indigenous people of the area include the Humbu [fr] and Teke.

DJ, Omicron started its spread in [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gauteng[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gauteng ; Situated on the Highveld, Gauteng is the smallest province in South Africa. Though Gauteng accounts for only 1.5% of the country's land area, it is home to more than a quarter of its population.^[5] Highly urbanised, the province contains the country's largest city, Johannesburg, which is also one of the largest cities in the world. It also contains the administrative capital, Pretoria, and other large areas such as Midrand, Vanderbijlpark and the affluent Sandton. As of 2019, Gauteng is the most populous province in South Africa with a population of approximately 15 million people according to estimates.^[6]

So this pandemic can be related to urban problems/spread.  Like in Brazil , India etc. mega-cities, and others, that many people living close to each other-often also animals closeby-is causing high speed spread, high speed mutations = new variants...Overpopulation is one of the motors behind this pandemic...

Outside Africa Omicron is spreading fast in a.o. Europe; Denmark (DK) cases +35%, Norway +32%, UK +13%, Finland +10%...however France +19%, Portugal +18%, Italy +13% may be Delta related. In North America Canada may see Omicron exploding cases +24% (US cases -5%...Omicron spread not yet high enough to put numbers up). 

In some countries (Austria closing schools cases -47%) restrictions-for now-work. Other countries-like NL fraud their numbers...cases -11% mainly due to switching to at home-DIY-testing...also NL-CDC keeps missing detecting Omicron....

In Asia South Korea cases +38%, Taiwan, Oman +19%, Laos, Israel +18%, Vietnam +7%...DJ Since SE Asia (mainly Vietnam) had high level of spread since this summer Delta is "out of control" in that region...unless some new variant is showing up there...Israel cases +18% is showing limits of boosters against Omicron...China cases +10% last week 475, this week 521...even if it would be part propaganda..in general the picture seems to be China is managing to keep numbers limited-but with also an economic/social cost. However many countries see lots of people dying, this pandemic worsening...DJ-I believe in the Zero-CoViD strategy...Not only China but also New Zealand, Australia a.o. did try that route...If all countries went for Zero CoViD from the start we may not be in such an international health crisis !

In South America Bolivia cases +35%, Argentina +27% may indicate Delta still a factor...

[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SARS-CoV-2_Omicron_variant#Statistics[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SARS-CoV-2_Omicron_variant#Statistics  showing 70 countries detecting less then 5,000 cases only shows limits of testing/sequencing. Omicron is expected to be the dominant variant worldwide end of this month...so less then 3 weeks...

In the "media" there are claims of "no deaths due to Omicron", "it is mild", "boosters will save us" and other non-sense...In Norway deaths go up +72%. In parts of Africa deaths also may go up...but poor testing/sequencing may be missing most/all Omicron cases...

Media-Experts-Politics keep downplaying risks...for short term profits...greed based, stupidity...

End of part 1

EdwinSM, Wars are not very popular in Russia...Putins intervention in Syria did cost him support...retirement was going down in Russia at the same time. One of the "goals" of wars is to sell weapons...Show "how good they work" ...Turkish drones (UAV's) may sell good, bring in a lot of money for Turkey/Erdogan. Russian weapons are supposed to be "much better and far cheaper" then US ones...rocket proppelled granates ("RPG") from Russia may cost only 5% of those from the US and "function better"...

In the Falklands/Malvinas war French Exocet missiles showed "what they could do" killing/wounding UK troops when French build Argentina planes did fire them at UK ships....

So a Russian invasion into the Ukraine most likely is very unwelcome for most Russians-costing to much money...However protecting Russians in former Soviet Union states (and the Russian/Orthodox Church (also Orthodox Christianity in Syria, Iraq...the christian minority most supported what the west described as dictators. Christians in the Middle East are often rich, influential...part of the regime ! Greek Orthodox, Egyptian Kopts, Christianity in Armenia, Ukraine, Syria, Iraq , former Yugoslavia, are "family") may bring support. 

I belief in Israel by now 20% of the population has a Russian/Soviet background....Erdogan is "playing" with both Turkish and Islamic "sentiments"...Putin may do so with Russian and Orthodox sentiments....

Must be around a year ago I did see a YouTube talk of a former Foreign Minister of Malaysia warning the US that replacing the Chinese Communist Party could bring in Chinese Nationalists most likely even more anti US.. [url]http://www.chinaww2.com/2015/09/16/the-us-firebombing-of-wuhan-part-2/[/url] or http://www.chinaww2.com/2015/09/16/the-us-firebombing-of-wuhan-part-2/  The US killed over 40,000 Chinese december 1944 fire-bombing Wuhan rail infrastructure-then in hands of Japan. In the 1950-53 Korean War [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Korean_War[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Korean_War estimates go up to 400,000 Chines deaths...(299 from the Soviet Union...mainly most likely pilots). 

China (including Taiwan) and Korea are "united in hate" against Japan...a US ally...In Russia a major alternative for Putin may be "Communists nostalgia" hoping to recreate the Soviet Union in a form....

US foreign policy is a total disaster simply unable to see history....a major force pushing Russia and China (plus lots of other countries) together...The main reason why Castro could stay in power in Cuba was US sanctions, animosity...the CIA trying to kill Castra over and over but failing...Also support from the US to fascists scum/dictators in Latin America did "not offer a good alternative"...Somehow the US seems to be unable to learn...Bolsenaro is yet another CIA supported fascist (he calls himself a fascist...) . 

-A total lack of international cooperation has been one of the ongoing factors in this pandemic. Dealing with this pandemic NEVER was a priority for most countries.....

Dealing with this pandemic as another bussiness oppertunity...good for profits...is one of the crimes Media-Experts-Politics  (MEP) should be blamed for....Patents on vaccines...making money out of a pandemic seems to be no "moral problem" for the MEP ....

Of course China exporting vaccines (they have several vaccines) and PPE etc is also in the interest of China...it is part of their Zero-CoViD strategy...not only trying to keep cases/spread inside China limited but also fighting this pandemic worldwide...At least China HAS a strategy...It is showing a totall lack of any morality that "the west" only does want to see it as "vaccine imperialism"...

The main Russian Sputnik-V vaccine-also produced in other countries-was made by [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gamaleya_Research_Institute_of_Epidemiology_and_Microbiology[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gamaleya_Research_Institute_of_Epidemiology_and_Microbiology founded in 1891. Sputnik-V and AstraZeneca both use Adeno-virus...AZ/O (UK/Sweden) did want to go for zero profit during this pandemic. Both vaccines did see an overload of criticism while they both most likely did do better then most flu-vaccines protect against the flu. (At a certain moment the Russians worked with Oxford on these vaccines...).

One reason why Russians are sceptical about Sputnik-V  is "western propaganda/commercial interests" also reaching Russia (via the internet...). Another major reason is widespread distrust in government...however distrust in government may be even larger in the US...

The outcome of "western making money out of this pandemic"-immorality is further growing influence of Russia, China...Iran and Cuba working together on vaccines, India getting into competition with China on "Big Pharma" ..."BRICS" may be doing most of medication production allready before this pandemic...

-Another aspect of this pandemic on a global scale is lots of countries running out of HCW-ers...NL is now "looking at Africa" for more medical staff. Rich, western countries do not only keep vaccines for themselves...more boosters in the west then vaccines for the poor...They now also go for HCW-ers from "countries we keep poor-for a reason"....

[url]https://nltimes.nl/2021/12/11/icu-staff-alone-will-help-overcrowded-hospitals-lnaz-chair[/url] or https://nltimes.nl/2021/12/11/icu-staff-alone-will-help-overcrowded-hospitals-lnaz-chair  high-tech solutions have their limits....and costs. 

When I look at how "the West" acted during this pandemic "disgusting" and "criminal" come to my mind....Is greed the only western value ? 

End of part 2...

DJ, part 1,

Increasing global tensions due to western agression. Integrating Ukraine, Georgia in NATO, new demands instead of returning to old Iran deal, US troops/weapons on Taiwan "to stop Russian, Chinese, Iran agression"...I do not expect an open war but there may be an increased risk of incidents. 

Extra danger is in UK-BoJo thinking he is Winston Churchill...So far Macron believing he is Napoleon most limited actions to Africa. 

-Pandemic ; [url]https://www.bbc.com/news/explainers-52634739[/url] or https://www.bbc.com/news/explainers-52634739 :

UK now back at four; 

DJ If action was taken earlier; stopping air travel before it did spread Omicron (not restarting it during a pandemic !) not "after the fact for PR reasons" the UK could have avoided yet another worse wave. 

I do not expect the UK to avoid level 5; 

• Level five (red) - a "material risk of healthcare services being overwhelmed"

Running after the facts, to little to late action, a Media-Experts-Politics clique ignoring science, warnings going on hopium and unrealistic optimism...

End result is Omicron will get dominant in the UK this week; The way I see Omicron is Delta on steroïds..spreading faster most likely evading most of immunity and maybe using part of the immunity allready to spread even further. 

The UK is not alone...many countries in NW Europe, North America, Asia now face the same healthcrisis Africa is allready in. 

-Numbers [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/  limited (weekend) testing. I do expect testing may even get more limited because people doing testing/reporting may be needed in healthcare. 

Reported global cases; 435,946 trend -5%, deaths 4,190 trend -3%.

A top 5 for cases; UK 48,854 trend +12%, France 43,848 +15%, USA 38,784 -14% (reporting issues for some states ?), South Africa (SA) 37,875 +93%, Russia 29,929 -7%. At #6 is Germany with 29,633 cases trend -12%. 

Looking at regions Africa cases +101%, deaths-still--5%...SA may be the only country in the region with relevant death-statistics +1%, other countries report very limited numbers. 

In Europe Denmark (DK) cases +50%, tomorrow Omicron will become dominant there. DK deaths -8%. Norway cases +32%-alarming-deaths +126% !!  Norway had 19 deaths being reported last week-the last 7 days (this week) 43. 

France, Italy cases +15%, Portugal +14%, UK +12%, Finland +10%...(How can it be Norway, DK, Finland have numbers going up, Sweden cases -14% ???...Sweden going for "no tests=no cases trumpism ?)

In Asia Oman cases +76%, kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) +51%, South Korea +38%, Taiwan +33%, Laos, Japan +14%, Israel, China +5%...

Canada cases +20%, Australia +12% DJ A lot of the increases most likely related to Omicron "exploding"....in some regions Delta (most likely) still growing. 

Global healthcare is facing a tsunami of cases. Most people do not have (enough) protection against Omicron-so this variant will find lots of hosts...Restrictions/lockdowns, closing schools NOW !!!! could limit the spread somewhat...but for reasons I simply can no longer understand we let it happen all over again...

It looks like Omicron may react differently in different populations. Due to the weekend [url]https://github.com/cov-lineages/pango-designation/issues[/url] or https://github.com/cov-lineages/pango-designation/issues has not been updated. 

In many countries Delta also still is a problem-however vaccines/immunity offers (some) protection. 

One major question I have is why Norway deaths go up this fast...+126%..DK -8%, UK +1%....Ireland deaths +47% (55 to 81). NL +26%, Germany +24% should be related to Delta...not Omicron killing this fast ?  Canada cases +20%, deaths +12%...South Korea cases +38%, deaths +32%, Japan cases +14%, deaths +50%...(Finland cases +10%, deaths +20%...)

I do not see the link in Israel (cases +5% deaths -20%, KSA +51%/-18% Australia cases +12%, deaths -4%

Hoping to find out more in part 2

Part 3, 

[url]https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/dec/12/boris-johnson-quiz-photo-covid-laws-keir-starmer[/url] or https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/dec/12/boris-johnson-quiz-photo-covid-laws-keir-starmer ; “We’ve got a very important vote coming up next week and he can’t even discharge the basic functions of government. He is the worst possible leader at the worst possible time.”

DJ; Party animal & joker BoJo did break CoViD rules december 2020 not once but several times....

[url]https://twitter.com/x2IndSpeculator[/url] or https://twitter.com/x2IndSpeculator as Omicron is exploding and Europe, parts of Asia, US, Canada has an older population...also winter how will Omicron unfold ? (Some links in Dutch). 

The growth rate in cases in London in the ages 20-44 - are insane. The majority of these age groups have at best had 2 vaccines, not many will have had a booster. Growth rate in week to 7 Dec #Omicron 20-2476% 25-2967% 30-3442% 

@chrischirp

 

@Kit_Yates_Maths 

(DJ The idea was https://twitter.com/julesmchamish/status/1470073196770643981/photo/1 would show up...)

Some discussion also on BOTH some Delta sub-variants AND Omicron cases going up....

[url]https://twitter.com/dgurdasani1[/url] or https://twitter.com/dgurdasani1 ;

Michael Volpe OBE

@NoisyMV

·

12 u

There is a tsunami wave of omicron coming - but the greatest vector for spreading covid is and always has been schools. But we'll just ignore that.

-

boosters are critical but not enough. We need to slow this thing down - and that means reducing contacts & making them safer. Plus messaging sucks WFH but go to parties, Boost cos 2 Vax  aren't enough, but 2 Vax don't need to isolate.. tsunami coming but plan b fine? Do better

-

@BorisJohnson is being told by advisers that Omicron doubling time “is less than two days right now”. Severity “is unknown” but “would have to be quite a lot less for the next few weeks not to be a problem”. Delta was doubling every  circa 7 days at its fastest in May, and…

DJ Weekend limited new news...[url]https://twitter.com/yaneerbaryam[/url] or https://twitter.com/yaneerbaryam ;

Yaneer Bar-Yam

@yaneerbaryam

·

10 u

Careful, Graphic description of brain and other damage in a 14-month-old child: Complete autopsy "our findings..suggest that SARS-CoV-2 may invade the central nervous system by blood-cerebrospinal fluid barrier disruption.  https://thelancet.com/journals/lanam

-

Elaine Doyle

@laineydoyle

·

14 u

A wall of Omicron is heading towards us in Ireland. Children aged 5-11 are completely unprotected. Given that vaccine supplies of child-doses are limited, and full roll-out only comes in January, surely we should close the schools early? Where's the sense of urgency?

/article/PIIS2667-193X(21)00038-7/fulltext#.YbZtk8EevEQ.twitter

"Children not at risk" 

Some other twitter; 

Eric Topol

@EricTopol

·

11 u

If you think Prior Covid protects against Omicron (B.1.1.529), think again https://medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.12.08.21267491v1… and "Neutralizing antibody titers against Omicron were low, even below the limit of detection in a significant fraction of convalescent individuals https://drive.google.com/file/d/1zjJWsy

-

bGaa3egiyn5nQqTzBtl0kmvMUu/view

[url]https://twitter.com/chrischirp[/url] or https://twitter.com/chrischirp ;

Took the decision to home school this week due to #COVID outbreak in school. I hope your week looks better than mine.

-

A bit over 1% of Omicron cases hospitalized so far in Denmark. Expect many more from this cohort as hospitalizations lag cases. Most Omicron cases from past 2-3 days

DJ In NL and UK twitter growing unease/anger on the political crisis. "Leaders" turning out to be sociopaths, disasters on two legs....

Some early indications Omicron-also in DK-turns out NOT to be mild for some age groups...even with booster vaccines...

End of part 3...may see more info later on...if I also find time I may even go for a part 4. This week-again-will see Omicron going exponential....also in 3x vaccinated, pushing hospitals/ICU further beyond their limits...Possibly infecting HCW-ers on a major scale (in part due to lack of good PPE...governments selling it to private resellers....). 

Some countries with A. Omicron being detected (some in larger numbers) B. Cases going up C. Also deaths going up do not-yet-proof Omicron is "more severe" but it needs monitoring...

Stay safe !

Thanks as always DJ. I'm back to reading everything posted here, and your research is greatly appreciated. 

Dutch Josh wrote: Looking at a lot of twitter people are getting cynical, frustrated, angry.....a disaster repeating itself...each wave-in reality-most likely killing 10 million+ people worldwide...

My hubby has had to stop looking at Twitter because of all the anger coming from it.

DJ, Above I made a sort of statement-on my goal with scenario's...This forum may help people to make up their minds. Please do not destroy that with bickering/fights...non of us is an expert...we all hope to get info...share idea's etc...try to keep it polite please !!!

-Numbers-also in general discussion some-more specific "Omicron statistics". DJ-My impression is that it does NOT look good. Omicron is spreading much faster then Delta but also may bring more severe disease....( it "being milder" just another piece of wishfull thinking/false hope...still some MEP (Media-Experts-Politics) may be pushing "it is only mild" stories when even graveyards/crematoria run out of capacity....

Media-Experts-Politics clique is the main "motor" behind this pandemic. Stopping restrictions, giving variants all the room to spread, ignoring vaccinated (trying to do the best they can !) still do spread the virus...destroying the economy they claim to save !

This "MEP" going from one blame-game "China did it" to another "blame the unvaccinated" while MEP has the position to limit this pandemic. I do not know enough of virusses but one question I have is why SARS-1 could be contained in 2003, SARS-2 became such a global disaster in 2020....Maybe CoViD-19 in the early ("Wuhan") stages-november/december 2019 was more contagious then SARS-1 in 2002 ???

But-the picture I have-NOT stopping spread over and over (Wuhan, Alpha, Delta now Omicron) "virusses fly-for-free" may be the main reason. That makes this pandemic a political problem. Governments can limit (air) travel but they did not ! MEP could inform people more on vaccines NOT offering protection enough to get infected and spread the virus....They still fail to do so !

-Numbers using both [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ and [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SARS-CoV-2_Omicron_variant#Statistics[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SARS-CoV-2_Omicron_variant#Statistics 

DJ The wiki-Omicron statistics may give an indication on spread-but it is just a matter of a few days before one could claim Omicron is gone global (and we failed to stop that-again !!!). Countries on top of the list are there-not because most Omicron cases are there but because they may have better/more sequencing...(still missing the BA.2 variant...BA.1 is picked up by (most) PCR-testing, BA-2 takes sequencing).  So i look at some of the statistics of the top 20...

UK now reporting most cases of Omicron...UK cases +10%, deaths -1% however from testing positive to death takes time...UK may still be in early stages ? BoJo yesterday confirmed first UK Omicron death...maybe some other UK deaths did not see testing for Omicron ? 

Denmark could be in same position as the UK ??? Cases +39%, deaths -8%. (Ireland is NOT in top 20 for Omicron cases-still 10 Omicron cases detected, very high level of vaccination...cases -4%, deaths +47%...if cases going down is not the result of decreasing testing/test capacity I would love to believe Omicron can become controllable !). 

Norway statistics look very bad ! Cases +28%, deaths +150% allthough numbers still are limited; 16 deaths last week-40 deaths this week. (In the worldometer list on daily cases Norway did NOT report any deaths the last two days...???).

South Africa cases +92%, deaths +13% (153 last week, 173 this week...(yesterday 11, the day before-december 12-21=33 last 2 days-would translate to 165 as an indication for a week). 

USA cases -3%, deaths -5% , Canada cases +30%, deaths +8%, Mexico cases -3%, deaths +13%...Delta still a major problem...very likely Omicron spreading high speed-allready a problem in Canada-very likely also allready in some US states...

Germany cases -13%, deaths +18%, NL cases -20%, deaths +24%..however Belgium cases -22%, deaths -13%...why deaths going up that much in Germany, NL and NOT in Belgium ??? France cases +14%, deaths -1%...Luxemburg cases -4%, deaths -9%....so different patterns in one region...

In Scandinavia Sweden cases -34%, deaths -76% !!!! Norway and Denmark look totally differnt ! Two other Nordic countries; Finland cases +19%, deaths +23% and Iceland cases +4% (deaths 0 last week-1 this week...so "+100%" ...).  To make it more complete Faeroe Islands cases +13%, Greenland cases -51%....(both 0 deaths)...

Statistics may help to get a global picture but does not answer a lot of questions-at best give some indications...(Why are deaths in Papua New Guinea going up +640% last week 5, this week 37...reporting ? Omicron ? )

End of part 1

In response to one of your comments, it is mind boggling to me that HEPA air purifiers aren't being used everywhere.  

My chiropractor has added them to his entire office, my doctor's office hasn't. (they also stopped using forehead thermometers and require patients to pull down their mask to use an oral thermometer. I sure as hell won't be doing that next visit.)

DJ - I share your belief that this pandemic *could* be managed and defeated with a multi-pronged approach. But we (the world in general) don't seem capable of doing it.

SIGH. 

Part 2,

DJ-[url]https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/breaking-news-urgent-russia-gives-ultimatum-to-nato[/url] or https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/breaking-news-urgent-russia-gives-ultimatum-to-nato (I could not find the link I hoped to find...) and [url]https://www.rt.com/russia/543185-putin-xi-upcoming-talks/[/url] or https://www.rt.com/russia/543185-putin-xi-upcoming-talks/ 

(Also a.o. [url]https://www.moonofalabama.org/2021/12/ukraine-russia-makes-serious-demands-warns-of-confrontation-.html#more[/url] or https://www.moonofalabama.org/2021/12/ukraine-russia-makes-serious-demands-warns-of-confrontation-.html#more)

Russia, Iran, China  (RIC) fed up with western agression...from NATO moving into Ukraine, Georgia to US troops in Taiwan, US still not returning to Iran-deal, Israel possibly preparing military action against (SCO-member) Iran...a major link for Russia-Indian Ocean, China-Europe/Africa... 

Again-I do not expect an open war-hope not to be overoptimistic...but if the US/EU can do "regime-change operations" so can RIC. (Some countries are pushing for war in the hope of stopping EU-Russia-Iran-China trade.) [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Sa68Hkt6zwI[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Sa68Hkt6zwI Alexander Mercouris on Russian-Chinese unity...

South Korean peace talks with the North should be seen as part of South Korea going for the EurAsian markets...less for the US. 

-This pandemic;

Omicron is spreading at a rate we have not seen with any previous variant. I need to be very clear: vaccines alone will not get any country out of this crisis. It’s not vaccines instead of masks, distancing, ventilation or hand hygiene. Do it all. Do it consistently. Do it well.

DJ...WHO warning-ignored by the "rich countries" going for massive boosters that will take weeks to be effective while Omicron is exploding now-and may be more severe then Delta !

Massive boosting campains now are more PR-related, governments showing action, then usefull. Omicron is allready to widespread-and high speed spreading so those boosters simply are to late. May result in even more Omicron spread in bad organized vaccination stations. 

[url]https://twitter.com/x2IndSpeculator[/url] or https://twitter.com/x2IndSpeculator  (I believed it to be a UK based twitter...maybe some Dutch in the UK ?) DJ-Discussion on how mild Omicron has to be to "help" limit the burden...(DJ The way I translate the info it is not that hard-still-If Omicron spreads 2x faster then Delta it should be <1/2 of severe to "help", if it spreads 4x as fast <1/4...)

Denmark one week further in Omicron then Belgium...(part of the twitter is in Dutch...). December 11 has London-UK 44% Omicron (yesterday NL news; "Amsterdam 3% Omicron" but does that include the BA-2 variant ? Is that info from december 13 or 14 ?)  

If people get ill/needs hospital it is 1 week (+ ?) after Omicron infection. It may be unclear wether Omicron is more severe then Delta (some indications for that)  but it is allready clear Omicron is spreading even faster then expected-will overrun healthcare maybe even before Christmas...

If you can not stop massive infection of hosts with Omicron (etc) then maybe treatments to limit healthproblems can help. 

[url]https://twitter.com/MadsAlbertsen85[/url] or https://twitter.com/MadsAlbertsen85 ; Latest daily Omicron overview for the UK is out. 633 new confirmed cases, and 3,607 new SGTF suspected ones. SGTF in London up from 44.5% to 51.8% of all cases 11-12 Dec vs 10-11 Dec). Assuming Delta is stable, that's a 34% increase in Omicron cases in one day.

-

Testing: The test capacity for SARS-CoV-2 PCR is maxed out and the percent of positive tests is increasing. Furthermore, there are large regional differences in #Omicron and local super-spreading events. See great explainer from 

 https://twitter.com/richardneher/status/1470484564942462997… 2/5

DJ, Delta would still be growing in London...testing capacity limited with some indications (some) Omicron may be missed by some tests....

[url]https://twitter.com/yaneerbaryam[/url] or https://twitter.com/yaneerbaryam (retweets); How many people (on Twitter) realize that you must wear a good mask in all public spaces especially break rooms, public restrooms, and indoor corridor even when no one is around? The virus lingers in poorly ventilated spaces for hours after infectious individuals are gone.

-

¹ #Omicron status update - Israel  To date, 89 Omicron positive patients have been identified. Out of 89 positive: 57 returned from overseas 21 came into contact with returning travelers 10 local (3 events)

DJ, My impression is that a lot of Omicron cases detected may be travel related..people stopped, tested at (air)ports and isolated when first test(s) are positive...A lot of community spread still being missed. 

[url]https://twitter.com/chrischirp[/url] or https://twitter.com/chrischirp ; Risks of myocarditis after infection and vaccination. Important data that has been used in balancing risk and benefit of vaccinations. Overall risks low, yet much higher after infection (40/million) than after vaccination (2,1, and 6 per million) https://nature.com/articles/s41591-021-01630-0

DJ I think we need better communication on risks of vaccination versus risk of CoViD. A lot of non-sense ("children not at risk" so why now expecting parents to get children vaccinated ?) came from Media-Experts-Politics (MEP)....They can blame "social media" for fake-news...problem is MEP also did produce a lot of fake news/false hope....("vaccinating ourselves out of this pandemic" knowing that it did not work that way !)

Due to time limits I keep it with this...My impression is a lot of twitter (also via flutrackers) trying to get "a perspective" both for short term Omicron -december/january and long term-can we "live with the virus", do we still have a choice ? How to live with a pandemic if it would last a few more years-not months...

Stay safe !

I think it's important to remember that the concept of the booster came long before Omicron.  As Josh has said many times, the entire blueprint for how to manage this pandemic for most of the First World, has been centered around keeping their countries open so as not to wreck the economies.  As I said elsewhere, if we wanted to stop this thing cold, I believe we needed to treat it like a four-legged stool.  Lockdowns till the vaccines were given.  People masking properly (most people do not know how to don, doff, or even wear masks properly.  If I had a nickel for every mask I have seen floating under noses, I could've retired by now), distancing.  And as Josh has said many times, offering vaxxes to the poor countries at the same time as the First World countries got them.  Better messaging about the mRNA vaxxes and how they were developed, and how they work.  There are a lot of misconceptions about them that might have been cleared up and eliminated some of the hesitation.  I believe that if we had done all of these things, Covid would probably be gone, although equally possibly it would have gone into an animal population or two and then mutated at some later point to surprise us.

Instead, the way the First World handled the pandemic has led to a slow burn situation, with one variant following the last.  There is alot of criticism of the leaky vaxxes, but I don't think we can expect them to be anything other than leaky because of the way the pandemic has been managed, and the fact that coronaviruses mutate so very quickly.  

And since Covid is making its way into animal reservoirs, as well as the way the pandemic has been managed, I think there is no question that more is on the way.  But I still believe that it will eventually mutate into a common cold, the way other coronaviruses have.  It just takes time.  Many people will suffer and die in the meantime.  And many will carry the complications of Covid long into the future.

S T O P   T H E   S P R E A D   !!!!!! DJ-I can not say that enough...!

My impression summer 2020 NPI/lockdown so far was most succesfull-in general-containing this pandemic. 

When I was young-seems so long ago...I loved jig saw puzzles. In this pandemic the strategy seems to be to pick up a piece of a puzzle that was fitting to see if it fits better in another place...that way you never complete the puzzle...

Vaccines were a good "piece of the puzzle" but if the pandemic-strategy is "all of the puzzle" vaccinations without a lot of restrictions become missplaced...do not complete the (ever more complex-4D) puzzle..The plan simply is showing itself to be not good enough...

Some twitters I start to hate  ;[url]https://twitter.com/x2IndSpeculator[/url] or https://twitter.com/x2IndSpeculator (retweets in part); The new #Omicron variant can likely now infect RODENTS  — the coronavirus couldn’t bind  ACE2 receptor before… but looks like Omicron can now. I vote for elimination, because I don’t want forever #COVID19 or play whack-a-rat repeated waves of COVID.

-

Interesting little tidbit from this recent preprint - unlike other VOCs, Omicron appears to have gained the ability to bind to rodent ACE2. Hint to emergence or simply just a byproduct of (ACE2) receptor optimization/modulation? https://biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.12.12.472269v1

DJ; Delta did show allready more spread in non-human hosts...Omicron (with very likely hundreds of sub-lineages to come still) may "spread even better in non-human hosts"...This means-I fear-possibly a never ending pandemic ? With lots of mixing, recombinations, variants, jumping in between species...I do not see anything that would turn this pandemic towards a "mild cold"...why would the virus develop that way ??? If we are very lucky maybe CoViD-19 starts to feel "more at home" in non-human-hosts...developes away from human hosts...in the YEARS !!! to come...

notice that other variants only weakly bound mouse  ACE2. But this study shows #Omicron binding mouse ACE2 is much much stronger than variants (red line in bottom panel), and now binds almost as strong as Omicron binding human ACE2. 

Did it pick up the picture ? Yes it did-good ! 

There were some claims CoViD in US deer could be linked to contaminated sewage-somehow mixing with the grass/leaves deer eat...However there are allready so manny cases of CoViD in non-human hosts...from (starter ?) bats, pangolins to pets...gorilla's....and mink resulting in cluster-5 in DK...

“Both the numbers but also the percentage of cases is steadily rising”, says Whitty. "So an increasing percentage of all of our cases is now Omicron. But that's not because delta is going away. It's because Omicron is being built on top of that."

-

England's CMO, Prof Chris Whitty, tells a press conference England currently has "two epidemics on top of one another" - the increase in Omicron diagnoses has not, yet, resulted in a fall of Delta. He says Omicron will account for most hospitalisations from Christmas Day onwards

DJ will Omicron surprise us even more-not STOP Delta ? But co-exist/mix in time ? NOT GOOD !!!! May make both Delta and Omicron worse !!!

UK COVID update: Biggest one-day increase in cases, hospitalizations rising in London - New cases: 78,610 - Average: 57,838 (+3,895) - Omicron cases: 10,017 (+4,671) - In hospital: 7,600 (-91) - In ICU: 892 (-9) - New deaths: 165 - Average: 115 (+1)

DJ, and just starting with winter also fresh, Christmas, New Year still to come..."viruuses love parties"...Some more bad news; *PANDEMIC WON'T END IN COMING 2-3 YEARS, ECDC HEAD TELLS HB

-

Bloom Lab

@jbloom_lab

·

3 u

.

@EvolveDotZoo

, here is plot with BA.3 added (as defined at https://github.com/cov-lineages/pango-designation/issues/367#issuecomment-992550394…). Interactive version of plot with mouseovers is at https://jbloomlab.github.io/RBD_escape_calculator_paper/variants_w_BA.2.html…. BA.3 probably antigenically similar to BA.1 as it shares mutations at 417, 446, 484 and other key sites. (9/n)

DJ, The Omicron family is growing fast ! [url]https://github.com/cov-lineages/pango-designation/issues/367[/url] or https://github.com/cov-lineages/pango-designation/issues/367 ; Now added as BA.3 in v1.2.112 (still in discussion) https://github.com/cov-lineages/pango-designation/releases/tag/v1.2.112

Denmark, which has the highest number of confirmed Omicron cases, reports 8,773 new coronavirus cases, the biggest one-day increase on record

-

Testing capacity will almost certainly fail to keep up with #Omicron: even with best efforts we can scale supply linearly, but demand will grow exponentially. This will happen everywhere at (almost) the same time, so global supply chains of reagents, plastics, etc will struggle.

DJ Not only Omicron but all developments overstretch testing/sequencing capacity..."the dam did break up" the reservoir is on its way...More; Important finding from Hong Kong: SCoV2 Omicron replicates to higher initial levels than earlier variants in bronchial tissue. Slightly decreased replication in lung tissue. Might entail higher levels of virus shedding, even if bronchus ≠ nose or throat. https://med.hku.hk/en/news/press/

-

Very interesting analyses about the virology of #Omicron, which may explain the faster spread of this variant. According to a new lab study, Omicron infects & multiplies ~70x faster than the Delta variant and the wild type SARS-CoV-2 in the human bronchus, but not in the lung.20211215-omicron-sars-cov-2-infection?utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter&utm_campaign=press_release

DJ; The booster vaccination is effective 7 days after vaccination. from [url]https://www.rivm.nl/en/covid-19-vaccination/covid-19-vaccines/booster-vaccination[/url] or https://www.rivm.nl/en/covid-19-vaccination/covid-19-vaccines/booster-vaccination I believe age is a factor. Older/ill people may see less immunity response after a booster/vaccination...also may take more time...Maybe timing may be also a factor. The idea is that UK taking 12 weeks between first and second vaccination resulted in a better immunity reaction then just 3-6 weeks between the first two vaccinations. The idea was there should be-for most-6 months between last vaccination and booster..but since Omicron (and maybe some Delta) tend to ignore vaccines (these variants are becoming anti-vax...) the "hope" is a booster may help increasing defenses...

I-non-expert-expect the/a "final stage" of (an) evolution may be variants using immunity to get into the cells [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Antibody-dependent_enhancement[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Antibody-dependent_enhancement ; If you want to take over another country the best option is that countries army is inviting, welcoming you...not fighting you...

I wished I could claim there was better news...Maybe some treatments could offer hope ?

cn65 I understand what your saying. At this stage maybe there is no right answer? Tho I feel that we should've done better. That proper rules, less divide and confusion were needed before this stage.

I don't know what lockdown was like for you but for us essential work could still be carried on here. People worked from home and I know many businesses have now changed to home work as it is actually better. I think for everyone lockdown was different. 

ViQueen24, I get your point, hope you are correct....[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_coronavirus#Other_animal_coronaviruses[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_coronavirus#Other_animal_coronaviruses ; 

According to diversity estimate, there may be 3,200 species of coronaviruses in bats.^[132]

DJ We should have stopped CoViD-19 at the start...we were lucky in the summer of 2020 with restrictions limiting cases....

-A look at numbers realizing a lot of countries now far beyond testing capacity...but statistics are one of the limited tools we have...As allways statistics can give indications-raise questions science has to fill in. Omicron is looking "bad"...

[url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ ;

Total global reported cases as far as being tested 707,768 (-1%), deaths 8,073 (-2%).  Africa cases +71%, deaths (still) -5%, Oceania (mainly AUStralia) cases +19% (AUS +25%), deaths -33% (AUS-26%).  Other regions report cases still decreasing; Europe cases -4%, deaths -2%, North America cases -1%, deaths -0,9%, Asia cases -5%, deaths +0,4% (India +20%, South Korea +20%, Vietnam +14%, Japan +14%, Thailand +2%). 

Omicron exploding in some parts of the globe, just starting in some other parts and very limited in still some countries. [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SARS-CoV-2_Omicron_variant#Statistics[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SARS-CoV-2_Omicron_variant#Statistics now mentioning 88 countries did report close to 20,000 detections. Translation; Omicron is global and there must be tens of millions of cases allready....

One of the many "bad news" findings; Delta also still increasing in several area's even with Omicron exploding...The idea was Delta would be overtaken but a.o. in London-UK indications are it is not....

So a lot of increases in most countries are Omicron....but in several countries it also includes still a certain percentage of Delta....

More "bad news" testing/sequencing is at its limits...reported cases may be 1/2 of real numbers could also be just 5%.....With Omicron better able to spread in non-human hosts this pandemic is "off the radar".....Diagnosis based on symptoms...if you have "cold like symptoms" isolate !!! 

Other "bad news" as far as I understand testing may miss an increasing number of CoViD-cases...you can use a test if you have one. If it is "positive" you most likely will have a form of CoViD...if it is negative-but you do have symptoms it is very likely you also have CoViD....

Of course we should have been in lock down for weeks !!! Of course boosters should have followed Israel...latest statistics cases -4%, deaths +89% (9 deaths last week, 17 this week on a population of 9,3 million).

I could write a list of countries in problems...I mention just a few;

Canada, cases +40%, deaths +3%  (why USA cases -2%, deaths -1% ???)

Spain cases +59%, deaths +82% (is it Omicron or Delta or both ???)/Portugal cases +10%, deaths -14% (why the big difference ???)

Nordic countries; Denmark cases +36%, deaths +6%, Finland cases +26%, deaths +9%, Norway cases+21%, deaths +66% (!!!!) , Iceland cases +15% ...1 death this week, 0 last week...and then Sweden cases +2%, deaths still -20%...

South Africa cases +69%, deaths +13% a lot of countries doing much worse in large parts of Africa...Egypt cases -7%, deaths -4% most likely just indicating Omicron has to start there...

Asia with over 60% of the global population has a very mixed view. Omicron very likely increasing in South Korea, Japan, Arab world...but SE Asia, Vietnam, Laos may still see Delta being very problematic....Lots of Asian countries did report Omicron cases...so it is spreading....

That we at least have these kind of statistics may be part of very limited "good news".  One of the major questions is do vaccines still offer some protection against now several sub-variants of Omicron ? It may at least-one hopes-limit severe disease....but 0% effective in stopping the spread.

I keep bringing up [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Antibody-dependent_enhancement[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Antibody-dependent_enhancement . Some use ADE-claims in anti-vaccines claims...I think most of the global immunity/antibodies do not come from vaccinations but from "natural infection"....Immunity-selective pressure may result in (sub)variants that are getting better in both evading and using immunity...

As a non-expert I do not know what is worse....they both are "bad"...Outcome could be the variants able to infect a host over and over again...

-Music for mourning; [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yy7WOQwXd5I[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yy7WOQwXd5I -The Cats-Lea. 

Again I am not an expert..I think a lot of "experts" with decades of study and experience also are struggling to find answers...but this pandemic is getting very ugly. Healthcare will soon be out of capacity....(and yes lots of governments failed and keep failing...but I made that point often allready...). 

We now all may face people nearby getting sick, risk of (severe) disease for ourselves, see a lot of people dying and suffering...realize how limited we are....

Music can give me strenght, comfort me....We have been-as humans-in so many valleys...welcoming the wider view when we leave those valleys behind...."We can work it out"...

Stay safe & sane, end of part 1

Part 3 - just to underline how bad it is....

[url]https://twitter.com/chrischirp[/url] or https://twitter.com/chrischirp ; ‘That suggests you’re  calling for social gatherings to be limited?’ ‘..it’s doubling every 2 days. Do you know what that means? It means it will be 8 times more serious in 1 week, 40 times more serious in 2 weeks, 3-400 times in 3 weeks. Over 1000 times more serious in 4 weeks’

-

DJ Just some numbers; 

Modelling from the 

 projects that Omicron could cause up to 75,000 deaths in England. We ask 

, co-author of the model, how the calculations were made, on our “Babbage” podcast

or 

DJ others claim 1,7 days doubling time...This soon will be far over testing capacity within a few days...even if only 10% of cases...maybe 5% cases needed "extra care" allready overstretched care will be unable to provide it for most. 

Gabriel Léger-Mild 

@Gab_H_R

·

12 u

Omicron  Look at Ontario’s Rt for Omicron. It’s 4,55! I’m wondering, what would be the effect of a lockdown, during the holidays? I’m assuming more people will cheat. What do you think?

and "Change in COVID-19-related _fatalities_ resulting from a dominant Omicron VOC in the EU/EEA between December 2021 and March 2022" "Pessimistic scenario", current boosting speed, no contact reduction: 18 times(!) https://ecdc.europa.eu/sites/default/files/documents/covid-19-assessment-further-emergence-omicron-18th-risk-assessment-december-2021.pdf

link [url]https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/sites/default/files/documents/covid-19-assessment-further-emergence-omicron-18th-risk-assessment-december-2021.pdf[/url] or https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/sites/default/files/documents/covid-19-assessment-further-emergence-omicron-18th-risk-assessment-december-2021.pdf 

Ridhwaan Suliman

@rid1tweets

·

10 u

Finally, here's an updated graph (log scale) of reported #COVID19 DEATHS during each wave in Gauteng  Whilst absolute number of reported deaths in #Gauteng still low (8% of previous peak), the rate of increase remains high - currently doubling about ~11 days  #OmicronVirus

DJ All alarmbells should be ringing...but it is confused with christmass related bells ringing...

A few remarks; 

-limited testing may mean Omicron (and very likely some Delta-subvariants) are much wider spread then decission makers (want to) know. 

-the speed of spread, increase of healthissues - on top of overloaded healthcare - may cause unrest/panic in some area's very likely allready next week...

-keeping essentials going (food, energy, basic healthcare, security ) may become a challange in those area's

I would love to be totally wrong....can only hope Omicron is "much more mild", Delta increase limited...people act wise...

end of part 3

Littlesmile-better to be warned then finding out to late....Bad news is never welcomed...

A summary of [url]https://www.science.org/content/article/scientists-see-really-really-tough-winter-omicron[/url] or https://www.science.org/content/article/scientists-see-really-really-tough-winter-omicron ; “What we see is an extraordinary, rapid spread,” says Troels Lillebæk, an infectious disease researcher at the University of Copenhagen. Despite very high vaccination rates, the country of 5 million is now seeing more than 6000 cases a day, roughly twice the number seen during the highest previous peak. (The growth seemed to show signs of slowing down early this week, but that may be in part because the country is reaching the limits of its testing capability.) Neighboring Norway, which has about the same population, is now projecting more than 100,000 cases a day in a matter of weeks, unless people drastically reduce social contacts.

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As with earlier variants, a handful of countries are providing the world with most of the early data. South Africa, where scientists first observed the spread of Omicron, has sequenced a wealth of genomes and produced data about early cases. Denmark, with one of the best genomic surveillance systems in the world, has provided an in-depth view of how Omicron can explode on top of a Delta surge. And scientists in the United Kingdom are conducting a host of studies to nail down how well Omicron transmits in households and elsewhere, and how vaccines are doing against the variant. “We should be pretty grateful” to these countries, Hodcroft says.

As a result, Omicron’s key properties are becoming clearer by the day. It’s beyond doubt that the variant has a substantial growth advantage. What’s less clear is whether that’s mostly because it can evade the human immune response or also because it is inherently more transmissible than its predecessors. That may not matter in the short run, but it does for the long-term outlook. If it’s all about immune evasion, Omicron’s advantage over Delta could wane as immunity to it builds up, and the two could end up cocirculating. If Omicron is also more infectious, it may replace Delta, just as Delta displaced earlier variants.

-

 This past week, laboratory assays by several groups have shown antibodies, whether elicited by vaccines or a previous infection, are significantly less effective at neutralizing Omicron than other variants. And based on the first cases, scientists in the United Kingdom have estimated that protection from symptomatic illness is much lower in people who have received two doses of the AstraZeneca or messenger RNA vaccines. The good news is that boosters appear to bring protection against disease back to about 75%, and probably even higher against hospitalization. “I think it all boils down in the end to protection from severe disease,” Krammer says.

-

Recent genomic comparisons suggest Omicron only began to spread in mid-October—earlier work had estimated late September—so the variant hasn’t infected enough people to conclude much of anything, he says. By chance, many of the early cases in South Africa happened to be in younger people, who are less likely to develop severe disease. And even if the variant turns out to be inherently milder, the volume of cases will likely overwhelm health systems. “A colleague put it really well in one of our little depressing Slack channels,” Hanage says: “There’s not much that can spread this fast and be benign to a society that’s already got full hospitals without it.”

Scientists also worry Omicron—which represented a massive leap from known variants in genomic terms—may bring other, unpleasant evolutionary surprises. For instance, roughly one-tenth of Omicron genomes sequenced so far have an additional mutation in the spike protein called 346K that is predicted to make it even better at evading the immune system. “Omicron has most of the greatest hits for antibody escape already, so there aren’t a ton of additions that it could make, but 346K is one of them,” says Stephen Goldstein, a virologist at the University of Utah. “We have to keep an eye on it.”

-

Given its divergence from earlier variants, Krammer thinks vaccine manufacturers should develop booster shots tailored to Omicron. Obtaining regulatory approval and making such boosters available in large numbers would take months, however—too long to address the crisis many scientists expect. And if the past year is any indicator, they are unlikely to be available to low- and middle-income countries in any meaningful quantities.

DJ-I hate to do this...I would hate myself even more if I did NOT warn !! Boosters are simply coming to late with this high spread....Most people are fed up with "pandemic news" certainly with Christmas, New Year in sight...

[url]https://www.science.org/content/article/what-does-omicron-mean-future-covid-19-vaccinations[/url] or https://www.science.org/content/article/what-does-omicron-mean-future-covid-19-vaccinations ;

Barely a year after vaccine developers reported spectacular successes against SARS-CoV-2, the latest variant of the virus has presented them with a new challenge. Omicron is spreading at unprecedented speed, and studies of blood samples and emerging real-world evidence show one reason is its ability to dodge immunity, whether from previous infections or vaccination. The new threat has galvanized vaccine developers and public health officials—but they are not all pushing in the same direction.

-

Yet another camp has embraced a bolder option. Rather than chasing SARS-CoV-2 variants with tailored shots, they say it’s better to push harder for universal coronavirus vaccines that would aim to protect against every new mutant of SARS-CoV-2, as well as other coronaviruses that nature might throw at humans in the future. Because of Omicron, “There is even stronger interest in our approach,” says Kayvon Modjarrad of the Walter Reed Army Institute of Research, who is spearheading the development of a pancoronavirus vaccine candidate that has just completed its phase 1 trial. Other pancoronavirus candidates may start their first trials in 2022.

-

“The idea of reboosting every 6 months or even every year, that’s not a public health strategy,” says Céline Gounder of New York University’s Grossman School of Medicine, who was a COVID-19 adviser to President-elect Joe Biden during the transition.

Gounder, though, argues a booster push currently makes sense because there are so many unknowns about Omicron’s severity. “Let’s give third doses right now to buy us some time while we sort it out,” she says.

-

Moderna and the other producer of a widely used mRNA vaccine, Pfizer and its partner BioNTech, say they could begin to deliver an Omicron-tailored vaccine as soon as March 2022. But they warn that shifting to a new vaccine inevitably would cut production of the current one.

-

A pancoronavirus vaccine may not be as tall of an order as it might seem, says Fauci, who takes heart in the fact that current vaccines based on the original Wuhan strain have powerfully prevented severe disease with all variants. “That bodes pretty well for the possibility of getting a pancoronavirus [vaccine] that you can boost with and protect against everything,” he says. Already, several have fared well in animal trials, and several candidates will start human trials next year.

Some vaccinated people may already have pansarbecovirus antibodies, a team led by Linfa Wang of the Duke-NUS Medical School in Singapore found. In work posted as a preprint 4 months ago and published on 7 October in NEJM, Wang’s team studied people who nearly 2 decades ago had recovered from SARS and recently received the Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 vaccines. In test tube studies, their antibodies neutralized SARS-CoV, which causes SARS, SARS-CoV-2, and several SARS-related coronaviruses found in bats.

Wang is now making a vaccine booster based on a hybrid of spike sequences from SARS-CoV and SARS-related bat viruses, but he doesn’t have access to monkeys to rigorously test the concept first. He’s also still shopping for a company to back the project. “Anything to do with commercial partners takes time,” Wang wrote in an email, explaining that he hopes to launch clinical trials in the first half of 2022. “The Omicron emergence will hopefully make this move a bit faster!”

DJ A lot of countries working on vaccines etc. 

Hi shady, Wellcome to the forum.....

Yes this is one of the biggest problems,

The economy's of the state ,

vs,

the health of the  people.......

What to do ????

Take care all 😷😉💉

part 2, 

DJ, I hope twitter etc. may give more info a.o. on what variant is spreading were. How many sublineages are there allready for Omicron...just 3 ? Would welcome (good) news on Omicron and animals...There must be patients with both Omicron and pets...How does that work out ? 

[url]https://twitter.com/BertMulderCWZ[/url] or https://twitter.com/BertMulderCWZ (retweet); Did Van Dissel comment on the realistic possibility that there might not be enough front line medical workers during this #omicron wave? Did he mention how it’s impossible to keep the trains, grocery stores, schools open if so many people are incapacitated at the same time?

DJ Jaap van Dissel is the NL-Fauci, head of NL-CDC. He admitted NL was late with boostering, to optimistic during most of this pandemic. DJ. As head of the crisis-team he often first did meet with the government and then went to crisis meetings...more or less giving the impression of taking political orders...His team came up with the "herd-immunity" plan, still did not think of anything better. Ignoring what is happening outside NL they still do not have a plan for how to deal with Omicron....There is no short-term plan, no long term plan...and Van Dissel is supposed to be the leading expert in NL....

Amsterdam 25%+ Omicron allready december 15, other places in NL see  Omicron cases most likely also go up...but the "news" is in general cases are going down...can 't fix stupid ! The "new NL government" -same as the old one-going for spending cuts on public healthcare....

DJ The fast way to get an indication for Omicron spread is looking for missing positions 69/70...However specific Omicron mutations at position 371/373 may be a better screening method ? 

[url]https://twitter.com/x2IndSpeculator[/url] or https://twitter.com/x2IndSpeculator ;

Eric Feigl-Ding

@DrEricDing

·

13 u

The #Omicron variant is surging in the US exponentially… CDC data shows that New York / New Jersey region is now over 10% Omicron of all #COVID19 cases. The rest of US is not far behind—likely dominant by Christmas  — please be careful during holidays. Figure by 

@DrWilliamKu

.

DJ In combination with DK info ; 

Denmark  Omicron vs Delta Hospitalizations  Please tell me, what do you see? H/T 

@jukka235

 

Omicron resulting in much more hospital cases after 2 weeks since infection/first symptoms....[url]https://twitter.com/Gab_H_R/status/1471550460003815427/photo/1[/url] or https://twitter.com/Gab_H_R/status/1471550460003815427/photo/1 ;

Denmark statistics after 4 days since positive PCR-test Delta did see 0,46% of positive cases going to hospital, Omicron 0.42% (so at that moment "milder" but hardly...) after 14 days however Delta 0,6% of cases went to hospital...Omicron after 14 days did see 5,41% (13 days even higher 5,97, 12 days 6,06%...). Most countries do not have enough hospital capacity...

Here in NL a lot of care going to GP's...so they are also running out of capacity....

So much for the "it is only mild" excuse Media-Experts-Politics come up with for further inaction...

Time from infection to positive test about 5-6 days - longer with test processing delays. That means that infections reported over next week mostly already happened. For Omicron, that's 3 doublings... *at best* 2 if growth has slowed this week.

DJ Maybe earlier sort of infections/vaccinations may make a difference on how Omicron/Delta further will develop. It could be some earlier variants/vaccine (strategies) could offer better protection ? 

[url]https://twitter.com/yaneerbaryam[/url] or https://twitter.com/yaneerbaryam ;

I have to keep it short...maybe more later

Stay safe - end of part 2

DJ, "We are in deep sh.t"!!!

[url]https://www.moonofalabama.org/2021/12/omicron-update.html[/url] or https://www.moonofalabama.org/2021/12/omicron-update.html trying to give a summary of what we (not) know on Omicron. 

[url]https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/we-are-in-danger-us-eu-nato-v-russia-ukraine[/url] or https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/we-are-in-danger-us-eu-nato-v-russia-ukraine ...but the conflict is much wider...(parts of) the west also unwilling to de-escalate tensions with China, restore the Iran-deal...US forces still in Iraq, China putting up military bases in Africa. 

Let me also include [url]http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2021/12/terrifying-arctic-methane-levels.html[/url] or http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2021/12/terrifying-arctic-methane-levels.html ...Methane release from the poles could push global temperatures high speed...

-Pandemic situation; [url]https://nltimes.nl/2021/12/17/hard-lockdown-necessary-right-now-says-dutch-outbreak-team[/url] or https://nltimes.nl/2021/12/17/hard-lockdown-necessary-right-now-says-dutch-outbreak-team If you want to stop Omicron you have to stop contacts...in fact stop ALL contacts NOW !!!

[url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/#weekly_table[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/#weekly_table ...most cases by now do no longer get tested even in "countries keeping themselves rich"...So cases +0,7%, deaths -5% is at best an indication...

Europe cases -1%, deaths -4% UK is "making the news" with 93,045 new cases december 17. UK trend cases +32%, deaths -6%...However looking at trends Spain (reporting 33,359 cases yesterday) for cases +77%, deaths +74% may be even more alarming. 

North America cases +2%, deaths -6%, Canada cases +45%, deaths still -2%.  South America cases -16%, deaths +2%, however Argentina cases +66%, deaths +52%.

Africa cases-as far as reported-+59%, deaths "still only" +4%. South Africa (SA) cases +54%, deaths +39%, Zimbabwe cases +35%, deaths +125%...in general the picture may be cases going up will be followed by deaths going up a week/ten days later...Allthough the picture can be different from country to country...

Asia is a story on its own...cases for all of Asia -6%, deaths -9%...South Korea cases +22%, deaths +19%. Japan cases +20%, deaths 0%...

Israel did do a lot of booster-vaccinations, cases +0,7%, deaths going from 8 last week to 20 this week (=+150%)...

India claiming only 6,543 new cases yesterday-with Omicron spreading-cases -13%, deaths -3% (DJ Unrealistic numbers)

China cases -2% last week 557, this week 546...Chinese definition of a "case" is testing positive with symptoms. China sticks to the-in my opinion only realistic strategy-zero CoViD with massive testing, strong restrictions when cases show up. DJ-I do fear Omicron may mean Zero CoViD strategy would have to go for an allmost permanent semi-lockdown...for all of 2022...

Pfizer made the news claiming we may be in a crisis till 2024 at least...

DJ The problem with exponential problems is that when you act to late...it may be to late to act. Even the most strict steps can not stop climate change/temperature rise...Since between infection and testing positive Omicron did double several times (UK doubling time maybe just 1,5 days) when you start seeing hundreds of cases there may allready be tens-of-thousend cases on their way....

Both climate change and this pandemic are the outcome of failing politics. Starting world war three is not an improvement. 

- About World War Three ; [url]https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/subscribers-only-classified-info-obtained-war[/url] or https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/subscribers-only-classified-info-obtained-war  DJ, After NApoleon, the NAzi's now NAto thinks it has to "move east"....The US did not accept Soviet missiles in Cuba. By pulling back US missiles from Turkey we did survive that crisis...

Now NATO thinks Russia has to accept Ukraine, Georgia becoming part of NATO (against promisses made to Gorbachev in 1991-NATO would NOT move east...). The US claims to stick to a "One China policy" but is sending US troops/weapons to Taiwan...

Biden did not undo breaking the Iran-deal stupidity of trump....

Russia-Iran-China (a.o. via the [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shanghai_Cooperation_Organisation[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shanghai_Cooperation_Organisation ) did become the major global power. 

In my (DJ) opinion US confrontation-policy pushed Russia-Iran-China into far stretching cooperation. Western foreign policy still has a sort of colonial view...Not treating Russia, China, Iran as equals has a price...The US also wants to stop the EU from bying energy from Russia, Iran...trade with China...

If the "west" wants confrontation, learning the hard way..."it can be done" ....

- DJ Can we survive this mess ? If things go "bad" my answer will be "no"....We need far stretching international cooperation to deal with both this pandemic and climate change...But we get confrontation....

I think there are many colours between black and white....If there would be a will to get out of the problems we may still have some "sort of a chance"...but if even the problems are denied...kicking the can down the road only offers limited hope. 

As allways-hope to be completely wrong...the virus going "mild", unforseen feedbacks stopping climate collapse, we do get international cooperation...I would love it !

I am not an expert, this is just my-very limited-opinion. 

End of part 1

DJ, 

Yesterday I posted this link in latest news "Omicron mouse link"; [url]https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.12.14.472632v1.full[/url] or https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.12.14.472632v1.full ; We then conducted enrichment analysis for each of the seven mouse-adapted SARS-CoV-2 variants and observed statistical significance for all these variants (Fig. 4D). In particular, we observed amino acid mutations at residues 493 and 498 in five and six of the seven mouse-adapted SARS-CoV-2 variants, respectively (Fig. 4D).

 Identical amino acid mutations (i.e., Q493R and Q498R) were both observed in two variants (Montagutelli et al., 2021; Wong et al., 2021), and considering that these two amino acid mutations are uncommon in human patients infected by non-Omicron SARS-CoV-2 variants (0.005% and 0.002%, respectively) we concluded that the progenitor of Omicron evolved in mouse species (or at least rodent species).

DJ If indeed Omicron did see part of its development in mice we have a very major further problem !!!

CoViD-19 may be spreading in mice....maybe just as good as they did in mink. And maybe allready for over a year....CoViD-19 would then be a multi-species pandemic...I think in lots of countries they now try to find CoViD-19 in mice...see how a mouse deals with the infection-how many variants there may be in non human hosts....

If the virus is that widespread we have to give up the idea of containing it. But "living with the virus" would bring endless pandemic waves evading immunity...So better treatments, early detection could be part of a new plan. 

But we need to get more info on CoViD-spread in non-human hosts. It may not be a major issue in farm animals yet...but how far away from there is it ? 

[url]https://www.wormsandgermsblog.com/2021/12/articles/animals/other-animals/covid-in-animals-review-part-6-updated-marine-mammals/[/url] or https://www.wormsandgermsblog.com/2021/12/articles/animals/other-animals/covid-in-animals-review-part-6-updated-marine-mammals/  has done a good job in informing what is known...problem is not much is known...

If Omicron has a strong link to mice it may mean other non-human hosts run a greater risk for CoViD-like disease as well. Bats may be the major reservoir for Corona virusses...Do animals spread the virus asymptomathic ? Will new variants cause then to get ill ? 

I think there may be some link with [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/African_swine_fever_virus#2018-2020_African_swine_fever_panzootic[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/African_swine_fever_virus#2018-2020_African_swine_fever_panzootic . Did pigs get CoViD as a co-infection, developing further into what became SARS-2 ? If so is that proces now stopped or still going on ? 

Again [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coronavirus[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coronavirus is widespread in all kind of animals; Human coronaviruses infect the epithelial cells of the respiratory tract, while animal coronaviruses generally infect the epithelial cells of the digestive tract.^[42] SARS coronavirus, for example, infects the human epithelial cells of the lungs via an aerosol route^[67] by binding to the angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 (ACE2) receptor.^[68] Transmissible gastroenteritis coronavirus (TGEV) infects the pig epithelial cells of the digestive tract via a fecal-oral route^[66] by binding to the alanine aminopeptidase (APN) receptor.^[49]

DJ More CoViD variants jumping from (other) animals to "us" may give digestive tract problems more then respitory ones...

[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coronavirus#Origin[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coronavirus#Origin gives some Corona-history; 

The most recent common ancestor (MRCA) of all coronaviruses is estimated to have existed as recently as 8000 BCE, although some models place the common ancestor as far back as 55 million years or more, implying long term coevolution with bat and avian species.^[72] The most recent common ancestor of the alphacoronavirus line has been placed at about 2400 BCE, of the betacoronavirus line at 3300 BCE, of the gammacoronavirus line at 2800 BCE, and the deltacoronavirus line at about 3000 BCE. Bats and birds, as warm-blooded flying vertebrates, are an ideal natural reservoir for the coronavirus gene pool (with bats the reservoir for alphacoronaviruses and betacoronavirus – and birds the reservoir for gammacoronaviruses and deltacoronaviruses). The large number and global range of bat and avian species that host viruses have enabled extensive evolution and dissemination of coronaviruses.^[73]

Many human coronaviruses have their origin in bats.^[74] The human coronavirus NL63 shared a common ancestor with a bat coronavirus (ARCoV.2) between 1190 and 1449 CE.^[75] The human coronavirus 229E shared a common ancestor with a bat coronavirus (GhanaGrp1 Bt CoV) between 1686 and 1800 CE.^[76] More recently, alpaca coronavirus and human coronavirus 229E diverged sometime before 1960.^[77] MERS-CoV emerged in humans from bats through the intermediate host of camels.^[78] MERS-CoV, although related to several bat coronavirus species, appears to have diverged from these several centuries ago.^[79] The most closely related bat coronavirus and SARS-CoV diverged in 1986.^[80] The ancestors of SARS-CoV first infected leaf-nose bats of the genus Hipposideridae; subsequently, they spread to horseshoe bats in the species Rhinolophidae, then to Asian palm civets, and finally to humans.^[81][82]

Unlike other betacoronaviruses, bovine coronavirus of the species Betacoronavirus 1 and subgenus Embecovirus is thought to have originated in rodents and not in bats.^[74][83] In the 1790s, equine coronavirus diverged from the bovine coronavirus after a cross-species jump.^[84] Later in the 1890s, human coronavirus OC43 diverged from bovine coronavirus after another cross-species spillover event.^[85][84] It is speculated that the flu pandemic of 1890 may have been caused by this spillover event, and not by the influenza virus, because of the related timing, neurological symptoms, and unknown causative agent of the pandemic.^[86] Besides causing respiratory infections, human coronavirus OC43 is also suspected of playing a role in neurological diseases.^[87] In the 1950s, the human coronavirus OC43 began to diverge into its present genotypes.^[88] Phylogenetically, mouse hepatitis virus (Murine coronavirus), which infects the mouse's liver and central nervous system,^[89] is related to human coronavirus OC43 and bovine coronavirus. Human coronavirus HKU1, like the aforementioned viruses, also has its origins in rodents.^[74]

DJ I did put all of the origin-segment here to show how corona-virusses have been around. [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coronavirus#Infection_in_animals[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coronavirus#Infection_in_animals ; Coronaviruses have been recognized as causing pathological conditions in veterinary medicine since the 1930s.^[19] They infect a range of animals including swine, cattle, horses, camels, cats, dogs, rodents, birds and bats.^[126] The majority of animal related coronaviruses infect the intestinal tract and are transmitted by a fecal-oral route.^[127] Significant research efforts have been focused on elucidating the viral pathogenesis of these animal coronaviruses, especially by virologists interested in veterinary and zoonotic diseases.^[128]

I think corona-virusses may have been jumping species for centuries....Very likely lots of times also into humans...good news is most of those "jumps" were not "succes" for the virus...did not spread further in humans...

Maybe the basic point I want to make is that most likely CoViD-19 very likely is in several species. It will jump to humans from time to time, often staying very limited. 

In a strategy non-human spread of CoViD-19 has to have a major role. Much more testing in/for CoViD in non-human hosts is getting urgent. 

The most optimistic scenario would see CoViD-19 developing "away" from humans...but that would most likely be just giving us limited time. 

End of part 1,

part 3,

DJ-A pandemic is a global problem in need of a global plan....however-just like climate change-putting economy first the pandemic risks are-so far-mostly denied/ignored...

"We" think that around 2 million people dying in traffic is "acceptable'...a price we have to pay for car-use...also killing millions by polution. Industrial accidents are "collateral damage" for economic "progress" getting the 0,1% even more rich...and over 50% of the global population even relatively more poor....

So "living with the virus" may be acceptable for the 0,1%...it may reduce life expectency saving costs for "the old and ill" limiting the rich even getting richer....

We need to look at the socio-economic background for how "we" deal with this pandemic-and many other problems. It is "just" a bussiness oppertunity....

Seeing this world as a market-place where everything is for sale may be a fundamental form of insanity...truth, democrazy, lives "all a matter of pricing"...."We" as humans-have lost our way...

WAR !!!

[url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wi31sNhRfmQ[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wi31sNhRfmQ  Alexander Mercouris; Russia Demands US Strategic Retreat, Demands US Agree Draft Treaties Ending/Reversing NATO Expansion, Revive INF, ABM Treaties, Respect UN, End US Exceptionalism, Regime Change Wars

[url]https://www.moonofalabama.org/2021/12/russia-details-secruity-demands-to-us-and-nato.html[/url] or https://www.moonofalabama.org/2021/12/russia-details-secruity-demands-to-us-and-nato.html ;

A visit to the National Security Archive at the George Washington University can easily debunk that NYT passage:

Declassified documents show security assurances against NATO expansion to Soviet leaders from Baker, Bush, Genscher, Kohl, Gates, Mitterrand, Thatcher, Hurd, Major, and Woerner

The first concrete assurances by Western leaders on NATO began on January 31, 1990, when West German Foreign Minister Hans-Dietrich Genscher opened the bidding with a major public speech at Tutzing, in Bavaria, on German unification. The U.S. Embassy in Bonn (see Document 1) informed Washington that Genscher made clear “that the changes in Eastern Europe and the German unification process must not lead to an ‘impairment of Soviet security interests.’ Therefore, NATO should rule out an ‘expansion of its territory towards the east, i.e. moving it closer to the Soviet borders.’” The Bonn cable also noted Genscher’s proposal to leave the East German territory out of NATO military structures even in a unified Germany in NATO.

This latter idea of special status for the GDR territory was codified in the final German unification treaty signed on September 12, 1990, by the Two-Plus-Four foreign ministers (see Document 25). The former idea about “closer to the Soviet borders” is written down not in treaties but in multiple memoranda of conversation between the Soviets and the highest-level Western interlocutors (Genscher, Kohl, Baker, Gates, Bush, Mitterrand, Thatcher, Major, Woerner, and others) offering assurances throughout 1990 and into 1991 about protecting Soviet security interests and including the USSR in new European security structures. The two issues were related but not the same. Subsequent analysis sometimes conflated the two and argued that the discussion did not involve all of Europe. The documents published below show clearly that it did.

Russia has put its cards on the table. It is now for the U.S. to show that it accepts talks on a equal level. To get to real treaties will take some time. There will be a lot of resistance from the Republican side against such an 'appeasement'. For a Democratic president it will be nearly impossible to get such a treaty ratified by a soon Republican controlled Senate. So the whole thing may have to wait for the next president to get it done.

DJ "The west" did declare NATO would not move east in 1990....Just like a.o. the Iran-deal, Paris-climate agreement etc. western words, promisses, agreements are empty...The US agreed to a One-China policy but is now sending troops and weapons to Taiwan...The US did NOT return to the Iran deal, did NOT get its occupation forces out of Iraq or Syria....

Everything comes at a cost...

Ignoring pandemic risks will worsen the pandemic, ignoring/denying climate change is pushing up "global warming" beyond the point we can survive...

After NApoleon, NAzi's now NAto is "moving east"....[url]https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/video-nato-u-s-tanks-cross-from-greece-into-bulgaria-heading-north-toward-ukraine[/url] or https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/video-nato-u-s-tanks-cross-from-greece-into-bulgaria-heading-north-toward-ukraine , 

[url]https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/russia-reduces-natural-gas-flow-to-europe-over-nato-ukraine[/url] or https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/russia-reduces-natural-gas-flow-to-europe-over-nato-ukraine 

and [url]https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/russia-orders-two-strategic-nuclear-missile-complexes-to-combat-duty-closes-northern-sea-route-in-arctic-over-nato-activities[/url] or https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/russia-orders-two-strategic-nuclear-missile-complexes-to-combat-duty-closes-northern-sea-route-in-arctic-over-nato-activities 

Since I want to check info from Hal Turner also [url]https://community.defconwarningsystem.com/forums/military-events.6/[/url] or https://community.defconwarningsystem.com/forums/military-events.6/  and [url]https://www.rt.com/russia/543646-counter-threat-security-proposal-snub/[/url] or https://www.rt.com/russia/543646-counter-threat-security-proposal-snub/ ; 

DJ Russia and China do not make jokes on war.....For them Iran is a strategic ally linking Russia with the Indian Ocean, China with Europe and Africa...

[url]https://www.debka.com/calls-in-washington-for-limited-military-steps-against-nuclear-iran-white-house-sees-no-way-back-to-deal/[/url] or https://www.debka.com/calls-in-washington-for-limited-military-steps-against-nuclear-iran-white-house-sees-no-way-back-to-deal/ ; 

Influential US figures collectively called on President Joe Biden on Friday, Dec. 17, to go for limited military steps to stop Iran’s rapid advance towards a nuclear bomb, after the talks in Vienna were paused with no new date for resumption.  National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan then admitted, “It’s not going well in the sense that we do not yet have a pathway back” to the 2015 deal” with the world powers. Another White House source warned in a special press briefing on Friday that Iran is only a “very short” way from “breakout.”

The group calling for military action included Howard Berman, former Chairman of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, Michele Flournoy former Deputy Defense Secretary, Jane Harman, former senior member of the Senate Intelligence Committee, Leon Panetta, former Defense Secretary, Gen. David Petraeus, former commander of US forces in Iraq and Afghanistan and ex-Director of the CIA, Dennis Ross, former senior diplomat specializing in the Middle East, and Robert B. Satloff, who heads the Washington Institute on the Near East.

is unacceptable for Russia, Iran, China...ANY !!!!! Western attack on a SCO-member-like Iran-would be seen as an attack on all of the SCO !!!!

Some "leaders" in the "west" simply do not understand we live in the 21st century, not the 19th....

This forum is discussing health issues...but we need to keep an eye on global events-during a pandemic-also for health care capacity...

The reasons why we are in this pandemic, climate collapse getting into world war 3 may be linked....Are humans self-destructive ???

End of part 3...may look at twitter etc. later on...but it is weekend...limited news, one question is will some form of Delta keep spreading with also Omicron cases going up...Another question is "how bad is Omicron"...how bad it can get mutating like wildfire...

I do not expect much new news on that in the week-end...