DJ, 

For "hopium" one could look at South Africa numbers; cases in these weekend numbers only up 4%....SA deaths went from 171 last week to 211 this week. The countries "keeping themselves rich" also managed to use more booster vaccines then "countries we keep poor" could use in ALL of their vaccination campains...SA deaths +23%...

However SA population is much younger and it is summer there as well. For North America (cases +2%, deaths -11%) and Europe (cases +1%, deaths -7%) and the new cases number is under reporting...UK reporting 82,886 new cases sunday -trend +53%, (45 deaths trend still -7%) but that number should be 4x to 5x higher...testing limits being reached, BoJo not willing to face reality...

Italy cases +41%, Spain +34%, France "just" +8%...Northern Europe Denmark +39%, Finland +25%, Norway +0,5%....(deaths -63%)...

South Africa is a bit further in Omicron...Zimbabwe cases -9%, deaths +75% may also give some indications...

In North America cases +2%, deaths -11%...Canada cases +70%, deaths -22% (Delta-deaths going down, Omicron cases going up ?) USA cases +0.4% deaths -10%....

The picture I get from the numbers underlines the big problem with Omicron; number of new cases (as far as testing capacity is there) "explodes"....Outside Africa if death-statistics go up it may-mostly-be related to Delta. But since healthcare was allready in a crisis large numbers of Omicron cases-often mixed with new Delta cases is pushing many countries into chaos. 

UK statistics for NHS indicate 25%-35% of HCW-ers may be unable to work soon...limiting further what health care can do. IF (IF !!) Omicron is able to infect/spread in HCW-ers much faster then the Delta-variant could it again underlines the need for better protection FFP-3 masks etc. 

NOTE; This last week before Christmas we may get at least some basic statistics. Due to Christwas and New Year maybe second week of january may see some basic statistics again....Omicron will have become the global dominant variant but due to timing we may miss a lot of basic info....

-Weekend did stop info-overload a bit, a look at latest news from Flutrackers; 

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/united-states-covid-19-sars-cov-2-september-13-2020-may-31-2021/932009-us-new-york-times-shows-covid-19-hospitalizations-up-16-and-deaths-up-9-in-last-two-weeks-december-19-2021[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/united-states-covid-19-sars-cov-2-september-13-2020-may-31-2021/932009-us-new-york-times-shows-covid-19-hospitalizations-up-16-and-deaths-up-9-in-last-two-weeks-december-19-2021 ; 

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/...vid-cases.html

DJ In larger countries picture often will be very mixed...Not only will in some regions cases go up, other regions go down...also some regions may have Omicron cases still very limited while in other regions Omicron is dominant...and sequencing has to give an indication of what Delta is doing...

Would it be possible some people catch BOTH !!!! So Omicron AND Delta ?  Would testing detect it in time ??? Would it bring an Omicron-Delta mix/recombination ? What are the statistics on vaccination/earlier infection status ? Do antibodies result in higher cases ? 

I expect we will learn a lot more in this last week before Christmas...

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/928700-omicron-covid-19-variant-b-1-1529-a-variant-of-concern?view=stream[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/928700-omicron-covid-19-variant-b-1-1529-a-variant-of-concern?view=stream (latest) Discussion a.o. on how to look at numbers from South(ern) Africa....Could it be that Omicron is "milder" ??? (At least there ???) ...DJ So far the basic idea was of 100 cases testing positive on day 1, maybe 10 or 20 would need hospitalcare between 7-14 days later on, somewhere around 1 would die within 28 days (just to give a time line...not exact numbers). 

So "time will tell" ...In Norway-Osly cases were in in general young, often even boostered people... the "attack rate" was extreme, over 70% did get infected...but Norway deaths going down -63% (last week 81, this week 30)  may not inform us on how Omicron may show itself in unvaccinated or more vulnerables...South Africa deaths do go up +23%....

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/united-states-covid-19-sars-cov-2-september-13-2020-may-31-2021/932006-us-media-fauci-said-that-vaccines-boosters-and-masks-in-congregate-settings-should-protect-most-people-december-19-2021[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/united-states-covid-19-sars-cov-2-september-13-2020-may-31-2021/932006-us-media-fauci-said-that-vaccines-boosters-and-masks-in-congregate-settings-should-protect-most-people-december-19-2021 ; “This virus is extraordinary,” Dr. Anthony Fauci said on Sunday in reference to the Omicron variant. As Americans wrestle with whether to curtail holiday plans, Fauci said that vaccines, boosters and masks in congregate settings should protect most people.

DJ With Omicron there is even more reason for government action !!! Here in NL I do welcome the lockdown (still not as strict as some countries have seen, but for NL this lockdown till at least january 14 is a big step ! ). We were late with booster-vaccines but soon may be at 1,5 million booster vaccines per week...the idea is that all 18+ can have a booster vaccine end of january...

The mix of good masks, ventilation, social distance, booster vaccines and limiting contacts will make a major difference !!!

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/united-states-covid-19-sars-cov-2-september-13-2020-may-31-2021/925006-us-cdc-covid-data-tracker-weekly-review-2021-2022-season-for-trend-analysis-only?view=stream[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/united-states-covid-19-sars-cov-2-september-13-2020-may-31-2021/925006-us-cdc-covid-data-tracker-weekly-review-2021-2022-season-for-trend-analysis-only?view=stream latest - lots of info on the US situation (DJ-I like it when "pictures tell the story...you do not have to read a lot to find out what the picture means...so "room for improvement"...) 

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/united-states-covid-19-sars-cov-2-september-13-2020-may-31-2021/931994-breakthrough-infections-generate-%E2%80%98super-immunity%E2%80%99-to-covid-19-study-suggests[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/united-states-covid-19-sars-cov-2-september-13-2020-may-31-2021/931994-breakthrough-infections-generate-%E2%80%98super-immunity%E2%80%99-to-covid-19-study-suggests ;

DJ The importance of a study like this one may be in offering a longer term perspective. It would be more then welcome if we did find ways for protection against all kind of new CoViD variants....Let me be honest on this study; I (DJ) am very sceptical; "if it sounds to good to be real it may not be real"....

I think in variants there is a trend of growing immune-escape, so strategies would have to look for limiting contacts and better treatments...since we may not be able to further slow down infections (via immunity both after infection or vaccination-that "defense" does not seem to last long enough..There may be limits to "boosters"...). 

To end this part 1 a list of questions;

-How "mild" is Omicron, do vaccines offer enough protection against severe disease also for the more vulnerables ? 

-Will Delta disappear now Omicron is increasing, or will they both keep spreading ? May they even mix ? 

-How does this pandemic spill over in non-human-hosts ? If Omicron did start in mice-will this pandemic see more spread in "non-human-beings"? 

-What are best strategies; boosters (avoiding they become superspread events) ? Lockdowns ? Masks ? For how long, what mix would work best but is also social acceptable and not destroying the economy ?

-Healthcare allready is in crisis; how to organize it that it can function in the best possible way ? 

Governments should communicate much better, do also better in limiting socio-economic damage. You do not want people getting stressed and depressed because they end up without an income...end up homeless...Governments should be much more active in that field. 

DJ, I realize I live in a very priviliged position; fixed income, house with a garden, social bubble, will be able to get a booster in january nearby...Lots of people are in a worse position...

Omicron is exploding, it is yet unclear on what to expect from it...will it bring (further) socio-economic collapse, chaos ? Or can we limit it-all of us ? 

I believe in being honest; if you simply do not know yet be honest about that ! False promisses, hopium, over-optimism and then another crisis undermine trust.  If Pfizer is warning (like they warned in june/july-boosters are needed) this pandemic may at least last till 2024. Global level of vaccination also getting worse-vaccines being used for boosters. China, Russia, India and some other countries may be able to increase vaccine production/export for "countries we keep poor"...

Political this pandemic may also "change the world"; in Chile elections the candidate that is going for more social justice did win the elections there (beating the fascist son of a German nazi who escaped from Europe after the war... no doubt he was the US-elite/CIA candidate...Will we see another pinochet-style coupe against a new Allende like we did see september 11 1973 ? Organized by the US-CIA ?). 

This pandemic underlines the importance of good PUBLIC healthcare, social security, housing, education, public transport as human rights...

Again-this pandemic IS political ! 

End of part 1

part 2b...copying from some links end up in "ruining a post"...."monday morning/coffee..."

[url]https://twitter.com/BertMulderCWZ[/url] or https://twitter.com/BertMulderCWZ In NL discussion on what went wrong in NL; Denmark, Norway tests only under 5% positive...in NL we are at testing limits with (over) 25% of tests being positive...UK did start it booster campain much earlier...here in NL the idea is we may have to get close to 10 million people vaccinated before end of january...(a lot of them boosters, some unvaccinated may be willing to accept vaccinations-welcome !!! good news !!!, also children 5-12 y/o can get a vaccine...) so lots of work to be done !!

Point of criticism is "boosters should be only part of a strategy-not all of the strategy"....Also FFP2 masks (+) offer protection...(here in NL you have to wear a mask in public spaces....but there are no rules on quality...so masks became a fashion item...not a safety item...).

[url]https://twitter.com/Ammer_B[/url] or https://twitter.com/Ammer_B ; Germany’s new expert council weighs in on #omicron: "Due to the simultaneous, extreme number of patients, a considerable overload of the hospitals is to be expected - even in the unlikely case of significantly weakened disease severity compared to the Delta variant"

-

This  feels like key issue for coming weeks- with   but mega-transmissible variant, risk from huge workforce absence in every sector. Even on this basis could make argument for +NPIs to try and take edge off overall case numbers, even if severity true

-

It’s a very fine line to walk -isolating staff who are contacts at home risks dismantling the service -reducing isolation periods after contact risks infection outbreaks in hospitals affecting patients & staff Omicron uniquely likely to lead to fierce cluster outbreaks

DJ Governments should make plans NOW !!!! on how to keep "essential shops" open, essential services going....The "market-ideology" is totally lacking the needed supervision ! Governments should have all the info on the pandemic, balance it with what is needed to avoid social collapse ! NOW !!!!

Do not wait till supermarkets close because they ran out of staff, GP's stop because they tested positive, public transport collapsed, mail services get halted....So far "liberal-conservative dogmatism saving the economy" made matters only much worse !!!

Why there is STILL that much international (air) travel spreading all kind of sub-variants going on ? What interests are being served ? Even airlines may be better of if they have to stop flying for a few months by law then running out of staff/passengers by pandemic for years !!!

"Some of my infectious disease colleagues say [#Omicron] appears to be as transmissible as diseases like measles" says Dr. David Reich of Mount Sinai Hospital— this buttresses what I’ve been saying and what I’m hearing from sources within govt.

[url]https://twitter.com/dgurdasani1[/url] or https://twitter.com/dgurdasani1 ;

DJ CoViD does not stay with the children-spreads into households, families...To many children do get healthissues, from Long CoViD to MIS-C  (Multi Inflammatory Syndrome in Children) to ending up in ICU, dying....Politics going for "children do not vote-so we ignore them"  have lost all morals...

Deepti Gurdasani

@dgurdasani1

·

10 u

Germany's experts are very clear here- contact reduction, high quality masks all  vital *alongside boosters*. Boosters by themselves not enough in the light of what they refer to as explosive growth.

Prof. Christina Pagel

@chrischirp

·

10 u

I've seen how people respond to Deepti and other women of colour here - and I've seen how people respond to me inbetween as a white woman and how they respond to men. It's been one of the more depressing things I've had to experience.

DJ This pandemic is full of stupidities showing how unequal society is. In some "media" (not to mention Media-Experts-Politics MEP=mad) female scientists are allmost ignored...racism is widespread. 

We have a limited number of good scientists-it should not matter if they are male or female, black or white.....stupidity will kill us all !

On the UK situation [url]https://twitter.com/yaneerbaryam[/url] or https://twitter.com/yaneerbaryam ; The threat of Omicron was laid bare by government scientists last night as they warned there are now hundreds of thousands of infections every day. That number could reach between 600,000 and 2 million by end of the month if new restrictions are not brought in immediately.

The government’s SPI-M-O group of scientists, which reports to the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage), also warned that, based on their modelling, hospitalisations could peak between 3,000 and 10,000 a day and deaths at between 600 and 6,000 a day.

DJ Will dogmatism cause an even bigger disaster for the UK...and many other countries. Not only in more cases/deaths but also in more-worse-variants ? More spread to non-human hosts ? 

Prof. Christina Pagel

@chrischirp

·

12 u

If we look at raw numbers of cases we can see that Omicron is rising *on top* of high Delta. Most recent days seeing falling Delta - likely a combo of boosters, school holidays and omicron outcompeting. BUT it's not rapid replacement - we still have lots of Delta! 2/2

D

part 2, twitter etc. see if they have "new news" or still in lots of questions in need of answers...Some numbers/news helping to get a better picture...

DJ-Because I am "following the news", trying to understand what is happening...nothing more ! (On what I am trying to do with "scenario's"). 

[url]https://twitter.com/BertMulderCWZ[/url] or https://twitter.com/BertMulderCWZ ...(retweets) Even some "experts" now coming up with "people have to die from something"-nonsense ! Intelligence may be something you are born with...going to university may not make "a stupid person intelligent"!!! 

Weekly hospital admissions  in England  in children 0-5 years old. Even worse than 2 days ago. 196 in the last 7 days +39% than the previous week  The NEW worst figure since the beginning of the pandemic

DJ The reality is there allways have been 0-5 y/o's ending up at ICU...However if Omicron is allowed to spread in children "because it is only mild and would create herd immunity" by now we know that kind of non sense is criminal....

We have new findings on Omicron in SA, led by 

. See http://columbia.edu/~jls106/yang_shaman_omicron_sa.pdf…. Using a model-inference approach, we estimate for Gauteng that Omicron is 100.3% (95% CI: 74.8 - 140.4%) more transmissible than the ancestral SARS-CoV-2... 1/7 

..and 36.5% (95% CI: 20.9 - 60.1%) more transmissible than Delta; in addition, it erodes 63.7% (95% CI: 52.9 - 73.9%) of the population immunity, accumulated from prior infections and vaccination, in Gauteng. 2/7

DJ Again this pandemic did become a poltical problem allready in 2020..."saving the economy-insanity" on the long run is destroying that economy ! I do not have the knowledge/wisdom to compare SARS-1 in 2003 with SARS-2 in 2019/2020....But I know early action could have limited this pandemic, maybe even prevented CoViD-19 becoming a pandemic ! Free travel (now via vaccinated/tested hosts) is still spreading all kinds of variants...

DJ We need a long term strategy NOW !

Dr. Tom Frieden

@DrTomFrieden

·

6 u

I've worked on infectious disease outbreaks for 30 years. I've NEVER seen anything like the speed of Omicron. It's as infectious as measles spreading in a non-immune population, with a much shorter incubation time therefore much faster doubling time. Hope it's a lot less severe.

DJ Growing indications Omicron may not be milder then Delta...may be even worse...but limited data...!

On this twitter (from NL) also some "non-experts" stating even if Omicron "would be somewhat milder" if manty people catch it at the same time it can disrupt society....Increase of mental problems (not only in young people) is a "normal reaction on an abnormal situation"....The best treatment for an increase of mental problems would be a better strategy ! Offering perspectives !

DJ-Again the question how "good" the "old normal" was ? It did end us up with climate collapse, overpopulation, increase of income inequality and this pandemic ! The "old normal" in many ways WAS the problem !

Can anyone spot the problem now  *  unless people in London have started going into hospitals with something that is *mild*  

Deze collectie weergeven

DJ The short term crisis-till summer 2022-is how to deal with very limited health care capacity facing extreme healthcare demand ? There should be plans ! Start those plans ! Get much more hospital beds, triage-schemes (low care, high care, intensive care), who can do what when....but please make this pandemic a priority NOW !!!!

The way UK numbers are going BoJo&Co is destroying the UK by NOT taking action NOW !!! Statistics for healthcare indicate UK healthcare on its way to collapse...Logistics, security may be next....limited food in supermarkets, energy problems...."Send in the army" ? To do what ? Shoot at citizens they are supposed to defend ? [url]https://southfront.org/polish-defector-emil-chechko-revealed-mass-murders-of-migrants-on-polish-border/[/url] or https://southfront.org/polish-defector-emil-chechko-revealed-mass-murders-of-migrants-on-polish-border/ Western Governments no longer killing "only refugees" from wars they started but now also massive killing of their "own" population ? 

(Western) Politics ran out of its tracks maybe with the end of the Soviet Union-around 1990 ? "Market economy", liberal-conservatism the new dogma....Politics coming up with ever more complicated answers to problems they created often themselves...another "tower of Babel" [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tower_of_Babel[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tower_of_Babel ...(Of course that story is pre-christian [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tower_of_Babel#Comparable_myths[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tower_of_Babel#Comparable_myths without willing to start a discussion on religion-most religions are based on much older ideas/beliefs ). 

Health Nerd

@GidMK

·

13 u

It is genuinely bonkers that this was an actual policy proposal from supposedly serious scientists

I believe in keeping things simple....we all share basic needs...supposed to have the same human rights...

End of part 2

DJ, sort of update...

-Good news [url]https://nltimes.nl/2021/12/21/dutch-coronavirus-policy-dead-end-new-coronavirus-minister-needed-says-labour-mp[/url] or https://nltimes.nl/2021/12/21/dutch-coronavirus-policy-dead-end-new-coronavirus-minister-needed-says-labour-mp ; 

Labour MP Attje Kuiken, who sits on the Tweede Kamer’s public health committee, indicated she was aggravated by the Cabinet’s sudden decision to put the country in a lockdown that will last at least four weeks. In an interview with AD, she called for serious changes to the composition of the Cabinet, and to re-evaluate the role of the Outbreak Management Team.

“We are at a dead-end, now almost two years after the start of the crisis. A press conference like the one on Saturday? It was disconcerting. Everyone lacked perspective, no matter how well-intentioned. The messages were sometimes too difficult to follow. There was a lack of clear vision,” Kuiken said.

DJ There is a need for long term perspectives in all countries.....(so far the good news)

UK

[url]https://twitter.com/dgurdasani1[/url] or https://twitter.com/dgurdasani1 ; "It is predicted that the London Ambulance Service (LAS), Emergency Departments (EDs) and the General and Acute (G&A) bed base are likely to become overwhelmed due to rising Covid demand in the next 2-3 weeks" - NHS London warning today reported by HSJ

-

Dr Duncan Robertson

@Dr_D_Robertson

·

7 u

Some ministers are treating science and scientists with contempt. Omicron doesn't take any notice.  It just infects people.  And then hospitalises people.  And then kills people.

-

Early results from our #COVID19 Infection Survey show the characteristics of people more likely to have a positive case compatible with the Omicron variant compared with a positive case compatible with the Delta variant. Read more in our statement  http://ow.ly/H30750Hgi31-

Deepti Gurdasani

@dgurdasani1

·

8 u

Just to clarify, this wouldn't necessarily be a good thing- because it means we may have two variants occupying quite different immunological compartments so that prior exposure against one doesn't protect against the other and vice versa. Herd immunity becomes a distant dream.

DJ UK healthcare close to collapse, Omicron and Delta "occupying different immunological compartments" people may catch both ! 

International situation; 

[url]https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/russia-warns-address-our-security-concerns-or-we-will-create-them-for-you-by-putting-nukes-in-venezuela-and-cuba[/url] or https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/russia-warns-address-our-security-concerns-or-we-will-create-them-for-you-by-putting-nukes-in-venezuela-and-cuba 

[url]https://community.defconwarningsystem.com/threads/defcon-4-european-crisis-reports-only.15408/page-22[/url] or https://community.defconwarningsystem.com/threads/defcon-4-european-crisis-reports-only.15408/page-22 mentioning Belarus/Kaliningrad as possible positions for Russian nuclear weapons...

[url]https://www.rt.com/op-ed/543907-nicaragua-diplomatic-relations-taiwan-us/[/url] or https://www.rt.com/op-ed/543907-nicaragua-diplomatic-relations-taiwan-us/ 

Cuba and Iran did work together in vaccine development. Iran did have limited talks with Saudi Arabia/UAE in Amman - Jordan. [url]https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iran-says-further-talks-with-saudi-arabia-depends-riyadhs-seriousness-2021-12-20/[/url] or https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iran-says-further-talks-with-saudi-arabia-depends-riyadhs-seriousness-2021-12-20/ 

DJ-We are in a covered global war...with also a pandemic (or two ? Omicron AND Delta ???) getting out of control...

-Some further news [url]https://twitter.com/x2IndSpeculator[/url] or https://twitter.com/x2IndSpeculator ; *Covid-19 Pandemic Drives U.S. Population Growth to Record Low *Number of U.S. Residents Grew by Just 0.1% for 12 Months Ended July 1

-

Denmark, which has the second-highest number of confirmed Omicron cases, reports 13,558 new coronavirus cases, by far the biggest one-day increase on record

[url]https://twitter.com/chrischirp[/url] or https://twitter.com/chrischirp ; If weekly admissions double just *twice* more from w/e 19 Dec (1.5K), we are back at last January peak in London (6K). We're likely to get a chunk to 1st double next week. What is scaring people is that with Christmas mixing there is no real reason to think they won't go 8/10

[url]https://twitter.com/kakape[/url] or https://twitter.com/kakape ;

"Without a truly global response, where we urgently increase access to tests, treatments and vaccines in all countries – not just those with buying power – we cannot expect to achieve lasting recovery. … We are far beyond the time for warm words"

It's "staggering and deeply frustrating that two years into this pandemic – when we have gathered so much evidence and made huge scientific progress – that governments are still not anticipating events and acting early or working together anywhere near the scale that is required"

If transmission isn’t slowed, "we could see profound impacts on health systems but also across sectors such as education, hospitality, public transport, police and essential national infrastructure as infections prevent people from working.".

"We are clearly in a new and troubling phase of this pandemic. What we have seen so far is sobering but there is still much to learn about Omicron. We cannot afford to cross our fingers and hope this crisis blows over”,  

 writes in a statement just out.

DJ Again-my opinion-dealing with this pandemic is NOT a priority for most "leaders"....[url]https://twitter.com/yaneerbaryam[/url] or https://twitter.com/yaneerbaryam ; 

Key message to 

 and others: Omicron is spreading very rapidly. The responses of many countries are insufficient. Please protect yourself and your families. In the next few weeks shelter in place, and be prepared for the shock that will occur as cases rise.

We don’t know the full extent of the shock and must prepare for difficult times. There are risks of supply chain disruption. We cannot predict their extent due to the underlying complexity.

There are limits to what a society can deal with. There is limited knowledge of how pandemics can disrupt modern societies. But with some imagination you know large cities can become chaos in just 24 hrs... 

Stay safe !

part 2, twitter etc. 

[url]https://twitter.com/BertMulderCWZ[/url] or https://twitter.com/BertMulderCWZ  (most in Dutch) two major recent points;

1. The person presenting care-capacity to NL parliament did show 25% of NL hospitals 6 weeks+ delay with critical care...He did NOT show over 50% of NL hospitals STOPPED critical care (to deal with CoViD). DJ It is not false info but not giving essential info is misleading ! 

2. A psychiatrist claiming schools getting closed 1 week earlier would give children serious mental health issues...missing the point the CoViD crisis is the reason why schools had to close...Of course this pandemic gives a lot of stress ! For a 20 y/o (s)he has been dealing with this crisis for 10% of their lives ! (For a 100 y/o it was just 2%, 50 y/o just 4%). 

DJ this pandemic is giving an increasing amount of extra health issues. From cancer patients NOT getting the live saving operation to teenagers starting narcotics...Dealing with this pandemic should be priority #1 but it is not !

[url]https://twitter.com/Ammer_B[/url] or https://twitter.com/Ammer_B ; 1/6 Health impact v high transmission obvious. But If transmission isn’t slowed could see profound impacts across sectors;education,hospitality,public transport,police,supply chains & critical national infrastructure if infections prevent people working

-

It's disappointing that after all this time to learn from COVID responses globally, several countries' reaction to a new disease threat still seems to be 'faff around with travel bans for a bit then lockdown'

DJ I think to total lack of (re)action by governments-on any crises-may be the real problem. "Solving problems" often is creating money out of thin air and pumping it to solutions "sponsors of government parties' come up with...legal corruption !

[url]https://twitter.com/x2IndSpeculator[/url] or https://twitter.com/x2IndSpeculator ; 

Jens Nordvig

@jnordvig

·

9 u

This chart (via 

@WSJ

 ) suggests that we are massively under-recording the US outbreak currently. This is quite important if you are calculating any ratios (fatality ratios, hospitalization ratios etc)

9

70

130

DJ Wastewater/sewage may give a more realistic-early-indication on virus spread. It could be used better ! If sewage is up increase testing ! Increase restrictions to slow down the spread....A lot of action can/should be taken...the problem those "in power" keep failing to do their job !

Gabriel Hébert-Mild™

@Gab_H_R

·

10 u

NYC hospitalization data: rocketing up with record caseloads 

5

21

49

DJ New York has been hit hard, did see relative good level of vaccinations. But people living close together mixing with Omicron is high cases....Also lots of Delta still around .

Ran out of time....lots of news, more parts of the globe sinking into a crisis...

Stay safe 

KiminNM, I had to look up [url]https://nl.wikipedia.org/wiki/FUBAR[/url] or https://nl.wikipedia.org/wiki/FUBAR ....I may come up with another creative idea for "FUBAR" ("Fixed up beyond all reason" ...maybe later)......I think lots of experts are doing a good job in science working often till they drop....what may be missing is translation of science towards policy/politics. 

I do not think "politicians want to do a bad job" but somehow "science" does not fit in their way of thinking/agenda....A lot of "leaders" simply lack the imagination for what "FUBAR" means...both in climate change as this pandemic - both going exponential and very likely (to remain realistic-to much "hopium around") Beyond All Repair.....

The actions-both on climate change and pandemic-may offer some perspectives in buying time and limiting damage....

-Numbers-to limited testing capacity, reality is far worse (again like with Delta/April India much underreporting, lack of testing/reporting then there...). 

[url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ coming up with 894,536 cases, trend +11%...deaths as far as reported-will go up-7.645 trend -6%

Some countries, regions, history; 

Highest number of cases in worldometers was 904,091 april 29, Delta "exploding" in India. Omicron is allready doing much worse ! 

Highest deaths january 27, 17,517 Alpha exploding in the UK-worldwide...It is very likely "Delta-deaths" were allready much higher-India may not have had the means to do all the testing/reporting...Omicron did spread allready allover the globe-cases going up very fast; beyond testing capacity...Very likely deaths will get worse then both Alpha and Delta, also far over capacity of testing/reporting...Since deaths go up fast in that many countries we could see 30,000-50,000 reported deaths in january ? From many countries, and very likely 10%+ still from Delta...

There are "indications" this time Delta and Omicron are that different Omicron may not (fully) replace Delta...very likely people/hosts can/will get both resulting in all kind of recombinations, new subvariants...

I am not an expert-just trying to make some sense....Delta seemed allready to spread better in non-human hosts (NH2 ?), Omicron very likely (some good studies still need peer review) could have started in mice....this pandemic getting "multi species".....By trying to limit/minimize spread in humans we could try to push Omicron towards (other) animals ? Only to see it come back later ? 

Present vaccines/boosters may at best limit damage...it is good to see lots of research around the globe both in better vaccines (also limiting spread) and better treatments...Without going for "hopium" we may have lots of medication that may be usefull. Fluticason, anti depressives, seem to offer perspectives....NPI did a very good job in many countries summer 2020 (I think NPI did a better job then vaccines-we should have combined vaccines and NPI as most "science" did advise..."saving economy-crazyness" did prolong the pandemic further damaging the economy. It is a false paradox/ way of thinking that lockdowns are destroying the economy...the pandemic is doing that. Stopping the pandemic/spread is saving the economy...

Small bussiness owners seeing their shop/bussiness being ruined are suffering...lets be realistic about that. Economy is "making the money" to be able to have good healthcare...Sometimes I get the impression "creating money" has gone addictive...politics no longer in any contact with the real world...

A problem ? Print money ! But that (just like vaccines) has its limits ! You can NOT keep boostering against CoViD ! You can NOT endless print money...all things have a price...

Countries/regions ;

Europe reported 483,255 new cases trend +8% still around 60% of the REPORTED global cases...lots of cases around the globe NOT being tested/reported. North America did report 253,947 new cases, trend +30%...(Europe deaths 3,850,  -8%, North America 1,942, +1% ) 

Higher level of vaccinations in western Europe may result in less deaths. Omicron deaths still have to go up...will go up !

The UK reported 106,122 cases...real numbers very likely around 500,000...just for the UK, per day...trend +64%, deaths 140 trend +1%.....

Spain not in global top-of-the-news but cases 60,041, trend +83%...France did report 84,272 new cases +10%...Even if Omicron would be (somewhat)  milder the main problems are; 

-extreme high numbers of new cases

-healthcare allready over its capacity

-public tired of this pandemic

-politics unable to understand how "bad" this crisis allready is. 

One could look at "pandemic history" but the most recent major pandemic was over a 100 years ago. The Spanish Flu did get out of control due to troops being moved around the globe. One story is the Spanish Flu came from the US got to Europe (France) via US troops...Some other claims is that it may have showed up in Austria (as well)...there seem to be links with China...News being censored because of the war did stop good communications. 

In many countries 3-4 years of war did result in population becoming more vulnarable for diseases (again). To put that in perspective; life expectency till around 1900 was around 40 for most...did slowly go up over the centuries from just 30....Infectious diseases killing lots of people-over 50% of children did not reach 18....(During the "Industrial Revolution in the UK-first half of 19th century 1800-1850 industry workers average life expectency was at worst 17...hardly had the time to create a new generation...One of the reason for "social laws" was the "upper class" did not want to see all of the "lower class" die.....The Irish famine (English upper class claimed the land-sheep did bring in more money then Irish [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Enclosure[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Enclosure ), slave trade are just examples of how the "upper class" did deal with "lower classes"  claiming there was a "god" that had given them that right....religion and power has been mixed for milennia...started before christianity...). 

"Living with the virus" fits with "return to the 19th century ideas of the present "upper class".....On top of millions of people dying from traffic accidents, polution, chemicals/radiation causing cancers "we would have to accept" several millions of deaths per year from CoVid as long as "the economy can keep going"....

One thing very wrong with this immorality is CoViD-19 does not stand still...it keeps mixing, mutating.....You must try to limit it or face the consequences....

One of my worries is CAN ???? CoViD-19 end up as an End-of-Live-Event (ELE) ? Just like climate chance allready is ? They are related/mixed....NOT dealing with both of them better may "end us" ....

End of part 1 [url]https://www.gelderlander.nl/arnhem/kersttrui-voor-de-hond-of-muts-voor-het-paard-outfits-voor-dieren-zijn-hot-deze-kerst-hij-heeft-een-eigen-kledingkast~a9f59ad5/[/url] or https://www.gelderlander.nl/arnhem/kersttrui-voor-de-hond-of-muts-voor-het-paard-outfits-voor-dieren-zijn-hot-deze-kerst-hij-heeft-een-eigen-kledingkast~a9f59ad5/ wardrobe for a dog in NL....

Merry Christmas Josh! Hope you have a good and safe one too 🎀 

DJ, Hope to be able to write a more decent posting today !

-Numbers; Reported cases [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ 814,110, trend +19%, reported deaths 5,826, trend -7%....A lot of non sense claiming Omicron is milder, hopium and christmas is a very bad mix !

Cases going up often resulted in deaths going up 2 to 4 weeks later on....Given healthcare was allready in crisis, Omicron spread started with the most social active it is MUCH to early for even more "hopium" anti-science !!!!

A few twitters [url]https://twitter.com/BertMulderCWZ[/url] or https://twitter.com/BertMulderCWZ ;

DAILY hospital admissions in England 1,246 in the last 24 hours  The worst figure in the last 6 months

WEEKLY hospital admissions in England 6,583 in the last 7 days  +22% than previous week The worst figure in the last 6 months

DJ looking at statistics, friday december 24 did see USA 197,856 reported cases +48%, deaths 747, -7%

UK reported cases 122,186, weekly trend +49%, deaths as far as reported as CoViD-deaths 137, trend +2%

France reported 94,124 cases, trend +30%, 167 deaths +11%

So UK and France see trends for deaths going up...however very likely most of them were Delta cases....

Usk started a story about South Sudan, cases as far as there is any reporting/testing +191%...Sudan-to the north cases +69%...Kenya to the east +312%, Ethiopia +631%, Uganda is south of South Sudan +449%, west of South Sudan "CAR" (Central African Republic" 0 cases reported last week...no tests available ? DRC "Democratic Republic of Congo" (former Zaïre) cases +22%...reported numbers of deaths is even less usefull then statistics on cases....

Is Omicron pushing up numbers in central/east Africa ? Is Delta sub-variant doing so ? [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SARS-CoV-2_Omicron_variant#Statistics[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SARS-CoV-2_Omicron_variant#Statistics Kenya ( 27 ?), Uganda 25?) Omicron cases, far to the north Egypt did see 3 Omicron findings.....

Omicron may have developed in mice....could flooding in South Sudan have pushed people and animals close together with virusses getting mixed ? 

I do not think cholera or malaria did cause the described symptoms...very likely poluted drinking water was a factor....WHO team in the area to do more research...If I did get it correct a lot of testing/medical supplies were lost in the floods...

Another twitter I think is important [url]https://twitter.com/x2IndSpeculator[/url] or https://twitter.com/x2IndSpeculator ; Compared with SARS-CoV2 wild type’s spike protein, the SARS-CoV2 omicron’s receptor binding motif has adopted a more SARS-CoV1 and/or bat/civet-like structure 

DJ A link [url]https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.12.14.472585v1.full[/url] or https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.12.14.472585v1.full ;

Within the receptor binding domain (RBD; aa319 to aa541) of the wild type (wt) SARS-CoV2 spike protein, the amino acid sequence stretch aa437 to aa508 encompasses the receptor binding motif (RBM) [1]. 

Amino acid residue exchanges have been observed at distinct RBM positions with all variants of concern (VOCs) [2]. 

The newly reported omicron VOC carries ten exchanged amino acids (Supplementary Figure 1) in its RBM of which five (K440, S446, N447, K478, and A484) are also found in SARS-CoV1-, in bat-, and/or in civet-derived RBMs at the respective positions and through which omicron’s RBM can be distinguished from that of SARS-CoV2’s wt [3]. 

3D structures of SARS-CoV1 [4] and SARS-COV2 wt [1] are from X-ray data, whereas the RBM structure of SARS-COV2 o has been modeled by alphafold [5]. 

From the remaining five exchanged amino acid residues, four (K493, S496, R498, and H505) are unique to omicron which further differentiates omicron’s from wt’s SARS-CoV2 spike protein when comparing the here assembled seven RBMs (Table 1).

 Importantly, omicron encodes for Y501 which strengthened binding already in alpha, beta, and gamma VOCs [6]. 

Of note, bat RBMs (BM48-31 and Rp3) do not bind to human ACE2 [7] and SARS-CoV1 binds to human ACE2 with lower affinity than SARS-CoV2 wt [8].

Again I am NOT an expert but a major part of the virus "receptor binding domain" making the virus able to get into the cell of the host stretches from position 319 to 541....222 positions....Five of those positions were seen in SARS-1 NOT in SARS-2/CoViD 19....four other mutations so far only seen in Omicron....

In detail: residue K478 has been designated the decisive amino acid exchange in delta’s RBM [2]. 

Omicron has kept K478 which, like residues K440, S446, and N447 (all three are rarely seen in other variants [9]), lend omicron “non-SARS-CoV2” characteristics; e.g. K478 matches with K465 in the RBM of SARS-CoV1. 

With expressing A484 omicron avoided the in alpha and in other VOCs found receptor binding-weakening E484 residue [10]. 

The A484 matching residue from SARS-CoV1’s RBM is A471 which is located adjacent to L472, one of the amino acid residues, which is in direct contact with human ACE2 and which has been assigned as important for species specific binding [4]. 

Residue K493 in omicron’s RBM is positioned where N479 is found in SARS-CoV1’s RBM. N479 makes direct contact with human ACE2 and is considered to be responsible for species-specific binding as well. 

An N479K exchange resulted in steric hindrance and in weakening of RBD-binding to human ACE2 [11]. 

S496 and R498 are rare RBM mutations and adverse effects on binding can be estimated for R498 as opposed to Q498 on wt’s RBM because of charge repulsion [4]. 

Y501 was considered to strengthen binding to human ACE2 considerably with respect to SARS-CoV2 wt and was assumed to also increase virus replication rates [12-14]. 

At last, H505 from SARS-CoV2 omicron is located where Y491 is placed in SARS-CoV1. H505 replaces Y505 of SARS-CoV2 wt’s RBD and of other VOCs, respectively [3]. 

Y505 is directly involved in binding to human ACE2 and from the physico-chemical properties of histidine vs. tyrosine one can conclude that binding of omicron’s RBD to ACE2 would not be positively affected by this exchange.

DJ Omicron is much more different then earlier (major) variants....some other mutations make Omicron a bit more similar to SARS 1....

From the here outlined molecular perspectives, it seems plausible that SARS-CoV2 omicron fulfilled some key criteria of a host-adapted virus variant with high contagion potential and perhaps less severe disease outcome [25]. 

Particularly after monovalent vaccine administration, SARS-CoV2 omicron might challenge a human’s post-immunized waning antibody / B-cell responses to induce a more general and long lasting immunity by extending protective antibody repertoires and by simultaneously enhancing T-cell mediated immunity, thereby ultimately preparing an individual to defeat more pathogenic virus variants in the future.

DJ The outcome of the mutations in Omicron could result in higher spread but milder disease....(???)  Time will tell....

End of part 1

part 3, 

A look on South(ern) African statistics; SA cases -29%, deaths +106%, (217 last week, 446 this week). Zimbabwe was hit hard by Omicron...deaths +84%...last week 50, this week 92...cases -52%. Eswatini cases -34%, deaths +40% (from 10 to 14). In these 3 countries cases may have peaked...now deaths going up...

Some other southern African countries; Malawi cases still +222%, deaths +175% (4 last week 11 this week). Zambia cases +291%, deaths +183% (last week 6 this week 17). Mozambique cases +133%, deaths +183% (6 to 17),  Angola cases exploding +1,047 % (389 cases last week, 4,461 this week...maybe also more testing ?) deaths went from 1 to 8 (so makes +700% ). 

Botswana cases +142%, deaths last week 4, this week 2 so -50%....

[url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/south-africa/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/south-africa/ South Africa did see 3 waves with over 500 deaths per day (summer 2020, winter 20/21, summer 21-but in SA it is summer this time of year !) so number of deaths still "low"...but going up. 

UK, France deaths going up-but still at low levels...Denmark [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/denmark/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/denmark/ allready showing deaths as another wave...[url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/norway/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/norway/ Norway has seen highest number of deaths in november/december...but very limited numbers...Same for Finland [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/finland/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/finland/ ...

At least part of those (increase in) deaths will be (still) Delta...statistics will give info on how bad Omicron turns out to be....In some countries Omicron now is dominant +50% of new cases....but most/all hospital cases still Delta. 

Because how will Delta develop further ? Sequencing/testing taking time...a.o. UK info may indicate Delta not fully being replaced by Omicron. 

"Mild" could mean 10% Delta cases need hospital care, "only 9%" for Omicron...so "mild" is very elastic !

-Trying to make some sense of Omicron subvariants;

[url]https://outbreak.info/situation-reports?pango=BA.1&loc=ZAF&loc=GBR&loc=USA&selected=ZAF[/url] or https://outbreak.info/situation-reports?pango=BA.1&loc=ZAF&loc=GBR&loc=USA&selected=ZAF  32,597 sequences, (looking at [url]https://outbreak.info/situation-reports?pango=BA.1&loc=ZAF&loc=GBR&loc=USA&selected=Worldwide&overlay=false[/url] or https://outbreak.info/situation-reports?pango=BA.1&loc=ZAF&loc=GBR&loc=USA&selected=Worldwide&overlay=false for global spread) ...Botswana, SA, Zambia reporting most cases (SA 1,598 out of 24,793) 

BA.2 only 35 detections...[url]https://outbreak.info/situation-reports?pango=BA.2&loc=ZAF&loc=GBR&loc=USA&selected=Worldwide&overlay=false[/url] or https://outbreak.info/situation-reports?pango=BA.2&loc=ZAF&loc=GBR&loc=USA&selected=Worldwide&overlay=false SA 16 cases, Canada, Denmark each 8 detections, UK 2, Australia 1...much more global spread but very limited data...

BA.3 [url]https://outbreak.info/situation-reports?pango=BA.3&loc=ZAF&loc=GBR&loc=USA&selected=Worldwide&overlay=false[/url] or https://outbreak.info/situation-reports?pango=BA.3&loc=ZAF&loc=GBR&loc=USA&selected=Worldwide&overlay=false only 16 detections; 10 in SA, 2 both in US and UK and NL and Botswana each 1....

-[url]https://innovationorigins.com/en/corona-in-europe-why-is-the-netherlands-in-lockdown/[/url] or https://innovationorigins.com/en/corona-in-europe-why-is-the-netherlands-in-lockdown/ ;

(Thank you for sharing this story! However, please do so in a way that respects the copyright of this text. If you want to share or reproduce this full text, please ask permission from Innovation Origins (partners@innovationorigins.com) or become a partner of ours! You are of course free to quote this story with source citation. Would you like to share this article in another way? Then use this link to the article: https://innovationorigins.com/en/corona-in-europe-why-is-the-netherlands-in-lockdown/ ) DJ-I respect copy rights...only copy fragments for non-profit information goals...

Yet the results of the first studies of the effects of Omicron appear to be cautiously hopeful. At least for individual patients. Experts from the US, South Africa, Denmark and Great Britain are in general agreement that the risk of hospitalization is much lower. Nevertheless, lower does not equal zero. That even moderate rates can create unmanageable problems for healthcare systems has been borne out by millions of corona patients over the past two years.

The problem with Omicron is that the vaccines – especially without a booster shot – do not work as well as they should, leaving hundreds of millions of Europeans, young and old, susceptible to another viral assault. Because one thing is now certain: this variant is going to cause extremely high rates of infection. The consequences of that need to be exceptionally mild to avoid overburdening ICUs.

-

Thank you for sharing this story! However, please do so in a way that respects the copyright of this text. If you want to share or reproduce this full text, please ask permission from Innovation Origins (partners@innovationorigins.com) or become a partner of ours! You are of course free to quote this story with source citation. Would you like to share this article in another way? Then use this link to the article: https://innovationorigins.com/en/corona-in-europe-why-is-the-netherlands-in-lockdown/

Between 6 and 12 December, 453,802 corona tests were administered in the Municipal Health Services (GGD) testing lanes, according to data from the Netherlands Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM). This may sound like a lot, but that’s often the case with large numbers. How much is this really? Not very much if we compare the figures of the Danish Statens Serum Institut. Their data dashboard shows how in the Scandinavian country, which has only 5.8 million pairs of nostrils, a test swab went up a nostril 244,650 times. In one week? No, in a day. In week 50, that figure was nearly 1.5 million(!).

 For every head of the Dutch population, two Belgians, four French and no less than thirteen Austrians get tested in a testing lane of their respective government agencies.

DJ Boostering started to late, testing in NL was very poor, excess deaths, hospital/ICU capacity at/over capacity...so the only way to be able to get some grip on NL is going for-a sort of-lockdown...(not very effective, no legal right to work from home...so still lots of traffic jams...).

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/europe-aj/europe-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/932060-the-netherlands-has-just-gone-into-a-month-long-nationwide-lockdown-in-response-to-the-omicron-surge-december-19-2021[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/europe-aj/europe-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/932060-the-netherlands-has-just-gone-into-a-month-long-nationwide-lockdown-in-response-to-the-omicron-surge-december-19-2021 ; For the sixth week in a row, the Netherlands is completely dark red on the map reflecting coronavirus cases in Europe. That is the highest warning level on the map, which is updated every Thursday by the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control. The total number of positive coronavirus tests is falling, also in comparison to other countries, but that decrease has not been fast enough in any of the 12 provinces to step down to a lower warning level.
....
The Danish capital of Copenhagen has become the area of greatest concern in Europe. More than 55,000 infections were detected there in the past two weeks, equivalent to almost 3,006 for every 100,000 inhabitants. That's a 48 percent increase from last week's data. The number of new cases is also rising rapidly in Oslo, Norway. Both countries have found a high number of infections caused by the new Omicron variant.

DJ The NL goal with booster vaccines (going to 1,5 million per week-and that is much !) is keeping hospital care going...get R0 under 1....and then "reopening again" to soon....Schools start january 10 is the plan. 

[url]https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/sage-101-minutes-coronavirus-covid-19-response-23-december-2021/sage-101-minutes-coronavirus-covid-19-response-23-december-2021[/url] or https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/sage-101-minutes-coronavirus-covid-19-response-23-december-2021/sage-101-minutes-coronavirus-covid-19-response-23-december-2021 DJ-Translation; Of cases with Omicron getting into hospital average age is younger-giving "better results". Doubling time may be slowing down-but could be caused by less testing....

[url]https://twitter.com/chrischirp[/url] or https://twitter.com/chrischirp ; At 240 average admissions a day, London is less than one doubling away from the level at which the govt has said that further measures may be needed. Given these figures, I'd say it's highly likely we will reach that point very quickly after Xmas.

DJ UK government still against any serious restrictions so cases, hospital cases going up...UK deaths +2% may be just the start...

-International situation Alexander Mercouris [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pd3FaLaGlwk[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pd3FaLaGlwk ; China Again Supports 'Courageous' Putin in Standoff with US; India Signals Sympathy News Topic 371 Putin lambasts West, endorses strong ties with China at yearend press conference https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/20211... Telephone conversation with Prime Minister of India Narendra Modi http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president...

DJ Media-Experts-Politics in "the west" may be that much out of touch with reality they end up at the sideline of history...

End of part 3...[url]https://www.nporadio2.nl/live[/url] or https://www.nporadio2.nl/live  After a top 4000 on radio (with TV link) NL top 2000 !

DJ, GOOD statistics can give a view on events....[url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ may not be able to get good numbers from lots of countries. 

The 385,808 reported cases (trend +10%) and 3,337 deaths (-12%)show no/limited US/UK cases....that will get compensated in the coming week resulting in to high numbers then....We are in the worst pandemic from over a century but some countries fail to see the urgency....

A look at some countries then; Ireland [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/ireland/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/ireland/ is seeing a record number of daily cases. Littlesmile did give the further statistics of hospital/ICU cases going up as well (latest news). Cases trend +79%, deaths going up as well +17% (last week 47, this week 55). Yesterday Ireland (population just over 5 million excluding the northern part) reported 10,404 cases...#10 for december 26 reported global cases !

Canada yesterday december 26, reported 10,409 cases (5 more then Ireland, Canada population 38,2 million). Trend for Canadian cases +92% ! Deaths (still) -23%.  Canada now also seeing record numbers for new cases, but deaths so far limited...will go up in the coming weeks. [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/canada/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/canada/ 

China is the third country I want to look at. Omicron did reach China may be spreading-even with very strong government actions to limit new cases, protect public health. Chinese cases +31% last week 605, this week 793. Worldometers number for december 26 had 206 new cases in China being reported. 

On China;

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/china-other-health-threats/china-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/932325-china-covid-19-hidden-transmission-urban-spread-143-confirmed-cases-a-difficult-time-for-xi-an-epidemic-shaanxi-province-december-22-2021-lockdown-imposed[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/china-other-health-threats/china-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/932325-china-covid-19-hidden-transmission-urban-spread-143-confirmed-cases-a-difficult-time-for-xi-an-epidemic-shaanxi-province-december-22-2021-lockdown-imposed ;

Xi'an: Starting from 18 o'clock today, we will carry out a total elimination! Please close doors and windows in advance

Publish time: 2021-12-26 17:10Institute of Microbiology, Chinese Academy of Sciences

notice

In order to further do a good job in the prevention and control of the epidemic, effectively guarantee the health and life safety of the people. The Municipal Epidemic Prevention and Control Headquarters decided to carry out a full-scale eradication within the city starting at 18:00 on December 26, 2021.

The general public is requested to close doors and windows in advance, and put away the clothes and items placed on the open-air balcony; after the killing operation, avoid touching the outer surface of the building, flowers, and trees with hands. Once touched, immediately rinse with clean water.

Xi'an Epidemic Prevention and Control Headquarters Office

December 26, 2021

zhttps://baijiahao.baidu.com/s?id=1720199207956860943&wfr=spider&for=pc

DJ From the same Flutrackers link; Hidden transmission, urban spread, 143 confirmed cases, a difficult time for Xi'an epidemic
At 09:48 on December 22, 2021

　　The local epidemic keeps moving.

　　As of 24:00 on the 21st, there were 143 confirmed cases in Xi'an in this round of the epidemic, which have spilled to Beijing, Dongguan, Yan'an, and Xianyang.

　　From December 18th to 20th, for three consecutive days, the number of new diagnoses in Xi'an doubled every day-10 cases, 21 cases, and 42 cases. On the 21st, the number of new diagnoses continued to increase-52 cases.

　　Liu Feng, director of the Shaanxi Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, believes that concealed transmission has occurred in Xi'an, forming a certain scale of community transmission.

　　There have been 90 “closed areas” in Xi’an where positive cases have been reported, and 16 million nucleic acid tests have been completed. Even so, the epidemic still shows no signs of bottoming out, and it has entered the peak of case reporting.

and The CDC responded that Xi’an currently implements city-wide closed management. First, because the first round of nucleic acid screening found new positive cases outside the closed area, the distribution area of the cases has expanded, community transmission has occurred, and epidemiological investigations have been conducted. It was found that the trajectory of the cases is complex and the scope is wide. It is difficult to determine and trace close contacts and close contacts of close contacts, and the prevention and control situation is complex and severe. The second reason is that the delta virus variant that caused the epidemic is highly infectious, fast spreading, and short between generations. In view of the characteristics of this virus, we must race against the virus as much as possible. Only at present, we can reduce the flow of people as much as possible. Gathering and slowing down the city can stop the spread of the virus as soon as possible. The third is that the epidemic is characterized by hidden transmission. Because many positive cases have not obvious initial symptoms, patients tend to ignore their personal physical conditions and cause rapid transmission inadvertently. In order to discover potential sources of infection as soon as possible and conduct timely isolation and treatment , To protect the health of Xi'an citizens to the greatest extent, so after comprehensive research and judgment, the level of management and control will be upgraded.

DJ So [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Xi%27an[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Xi%27an Xi'an may be facing an outbreak not being containable with the strategies used in China this far. The 13 million people in the metro-area did see 16 million tests...a/pre symptomatic spread is the major problem. 

"Decontamination" of the street as part of the strategy ? DJ-A question could be is there another CoViD form/variant spreading in central China ? 

[url]https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/chinas-local-covid-19-cases-edge-higher-xian-enters-5th-day-lockdown-2021-12-27/[/url] or https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/chinas-local-covid-19-cases-edge-higher-xian-enters-5th-day-lockdown-2021-12-27/ ; 

• China reports 162 local symptomatic cases vs 158 day earlier
• In Xian 150 local symptomatic cases for Sunday vs 155 Saturday
• Xian starts new round of citywide testing on Monday
• The latest outbreak has led to 635 local confirmed cases in Xian, a city of 13 million people, during the Dec. 9-26 period, with no Omicron variant infections yet reported.

  Across mainland China, a total of 162 domestically transmitted COVID-19 infections with confirmed symptoms were reported for Sunday, up from 158 a day earlier, according to official data on Monday. No deaths were reported for Sunday.

DJ [url]https://www.rfa.org/english/news/china/surge-12232021120335.html[/url] or https://www.rfa.org/english/news/china/surge-12232021120335.html rats related hemorrhagic fever ; 

"Hemorrhagic fever is a common infectious disease in northern China," the paper said. "Starting from October every year, some areas of Shaanxi [of which Xi'an is the provincial capital] enter the high incidence season of hemorrhagic fever."

The disease, also known as epidemic hemorrhagic fever, is caused by hantavirus, with rodents as the main source of infection, it said.

[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Orthohantavirus[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Orthohantavirus 

DJ End of part 1....

DJ, International situation; [url]https://www.rt.com/russia/544537-nato-war-preparations-moscow/[/url] or https://www.rt.com/russia/544537-nato-war-preparations-moscow/ ,

[url]https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/russian-defence-ministry-nato-preparing-for-large-scale-high-intensity-conflict-with-moscow[/url] or https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/russian-defence-ministry-nato-preparing-for-large-scale-high-intensity-conflict-with-moscow and [url]https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/nato-pushes-russia-again-wants-sweden-and-finland-to-join-russia-warns-of-military-and-political-consequences[/url] or https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/nato-pushes-russia-again-wants-sweden-and-finland-to-join-russia-warns-of-military-and-political-consequences 

[url]https://www.moonofalabama.org/2021/12/china-but-at-what-cost.html[/url] or https://www.moonofalabama.org/2021/12/china-but-at-what-cost.html 

DJ After NApoleon, NAzi's now NAto is moving east....trying to include Sweden, Finland, Ukraine, Georgia....why ??? US troops/missiles in Ukraine, Taiwan, South Korea do destabilize international relations...Is NATO planning to "liberate" Russian, Iranian oil ? Fighting Chinese economic growth ? 

Neo-colonialism is pushing the former colonies away from "the west" gone crazy....

-We NEED international cooperation to get this pandemic under control. But I question if "the west" does take this pandemic serious...Free air travel for variants did not only see "wild type/Wuhan" flying around the globe early 2020, Delta had free global travel april 2021, Omicron was "flying around the globe for free" in november...in fact some countries are above prepandemic flightlevels with the pandemic only getting worse...

Numbers [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/  reported global cases december 26 as far as there was testing capacity 739,765 weekly trend +28%, deaths as far as reported 4,988 trend -7%..does this decrease in deaths show Omicron is "mild"? NO ! People that die from Omicron would most likely die within 2 to 4 weeks...Some countries do not include CoViD deaths after 28 days (UK, Russia), China does only count symptomatic cases as cases...so excluding positive tests without symptoms...

US reporting 217,522 cases (+60%), 679 deaths (+7%)...high number of cases in part compensation for underreporting cases during christmas...

UK reporting "only" 98,515 cases (+31%)...did not report cases during christmas...so where did those cases go ? On twitter UK cases 100,000+...UK deaths 143, trend -5%....

France has seen 100,000+ cases last week, yesterday France had 30,383 cases being reported ??? Trend +37%, France deaths 256 (+13%)...

DJ In part because of limited testing during christmas/new year, testcapacity at limits, and lots of people not getting tested (what is the point, lateral flow/DIY tests-at-home can give some indications...If an official test only offers an extra of more limitations, no extra help, why get an official test ?) the real number of daily new cases must be far above the 1 million per day....

Most of the spread is now under the radar, governments base their strategy on "official numbers" but those numbers are getting more disconnected with reality....This is worsening the pandemic !

"Omicron is only mild" nonsense in the "embedded media", Media-Experts-Politics block again spreading hopium, false promises, unrealistic optimism...No serious virologists is claiming any longer "Omicron only a cold like corona-virus", it is still SARS-2 ! (Severe Acute Respitory Syndrome !!! The name is misleading-CoViD 19 can cause infections all over the body, not only in the respitory system). 

A look at (Southern) Africa...Africa cases +13%, deaths +21%...South Africa cases -26% (but still at high level) deaths +23%, Zimbabwe was hit much harder cases there now -55%, deaths +58%...a lot of the deaths may be Omicron related...Healthcare being overstretched by far does not help...

Kenya, Zambia, Malawi all report increase of cases far over 100%+, deaths often also 100%+ (Zambia +79%)...only a part of the increases can be explained by increase of testing. Omicron has been around in that region for more then a week, so testing did increase often also more then a week ago. Trends look at numbers-per-week...

South Sudan cases +66%...(2 deaths this week, 0 last week reported...). Central/East Africa may need extra monitoring, testing, sequencing....It would be very unwelcome if yet another variant would be spreading...

This forum ;

DJ There is very good reason to widen that up ! [url]https://github.com/cov-lineages/pango-designation/issues/384[/url] or https://github.com/cov-lineages/pango-designation/issues/384 ; 

The lineage is a potential AY.36 sublineage with two SNPs at the N-gene sequence c.28922G>T and c.29077C>T. The first SNP translates as mutation N:A217S, the second one is synonymous. These two SNPs causes a N-gene curve shift to the right (with 2 times higher Ct values than the other gene curves) when using the TaqPath (ThermoFisher) SARS-CoV-2 RT-PCR kit.

It circulates in Central Catalonia (Manresa and nearby villages) since 10/Nov/2021 when it was first detected as a N-gene shift to the right in a sample obtained from a village called Castellgalí near Manresa in Catalonia, Spain. Since then, we observed 46 more cases in the region with the same profile of a N-gene shift to the right with 2 times higher Ct values than the other genes.

It is remarkable that it can be detected by observing a double shift to the left of the N-gene or a N-gene Target Failure (NGTF) when using the TaqPath (ThermoFisher) SARS-CoV-2 RT-PCR kit. The same way the Alfa and Omicron variants are detected with the SGTF.

In Catalunya a Delta subvariant was spreading early november. It can be Omicron did push aside Delta there by now. 

A look at global region-trends; Europe cases +17%, deaths -13%, North America cases +63%, deaths +3%, South America cases +63% also, deaths -24%, Asia cases -0,9%, deaths -0,2%, Oceania cases +137%, deaths +20% and Africa cases +13%, deaths +21%.

Canada being hit very hard; cases +151%, deaths however still -1%. Argentina cases +158%, deaths also -1%...Israel cases +76%, deaths -42%...

DJ-My non-expert translation, Omicron is spreading high speed in many area's, but often deaths are not going up yet. Africa, some European countries, maybe Australia (cases +140%, deaths +28%)  may indicate deaths also will increase. 

Israel may indicate booster-vaccinations limit somewhat, so far, the number of people dying from Omicron...

DJ-STOP THE SPREAD is needed but simply not done...so a lot of the (western dominated) world will go for booster after booster...becoming less and less effective over time..."living with the virus-insanity" just as "living with climate collapse" bringing more and more extreme weather...we may have spring like temperatures this new years eve here in NL....crazy...

End of part 1

Thank you as always Josh, very interesting indeed..... I think everyone should keep their eyes wide open now or look to the right lol. I liked that quote, it suits the UK lol...

Things seem to be going much faster here then expected. Then other places slow... Unpredictable??

The CDC continues to put the economy ahead of health and Disease Control. Disease Control is *literally* supposed to be their purpose. Nice to see Twitter calling them out and lambasting the Delta CEO.  

And the lack of both at home testing and PCR in the US is beyond abysmal.

And politicians trying to say "we didn't see this coming"?

What a clusterf**k.

I'm back to fantasizing about an human destroying meteor to calm myself.  

I think China's ban on people driving in Xi'an is a genius idea. A straight out ban. No excuses. No exemptions.

DJ, [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ reported cases;

   1,222, 487 for december 28, on just ONE day....Yes it is over reporting since christmas had a lot of underreporting....trend however for cases is +30% and that is on a weekly basis. 

Deaths-as far as being reported 6,876, trend (still) -11% on a global scale. Since testing going up to deaths going up may have a timegap between 2 to 4 weeks one can not say Omicron is resulting in less deaths...Simply to early for that. Countries/regions first effected by Omicron indicate deaths do go up. But in part that may be caused by much less care being available...

Yesterday I did allready mention US, (312,939 +66%), UK (129,471 +31%,),France (1179,807 +37%)over 100,000 cases...Spain came close with 99,671 cases, trend for cases alarming +104%..

For that matter weekly trends may be better indicators-even if there is limited testing/reporting in many places;

Europe cases +18%, deaths -13%

North America cases +69%, deaths -14%

South America cases +63%, deaths -24%

Africa cases +14%, deaths +21%

Asia cases -0,9%, deaths -0,2%

Oceania  cases +137%, deaths +20%

As a rule people first catch the disease then die from it...so first cases go up, then deaths go up. Asia as a "region" is the only one not yet reporting an increase of cases. In Europe and Africa increase now between 14%-18%...The Americaś see it growing much faster 63% to 69%...Oceania well...

Africa and Oceania see deaths going up 20% to 21%....may indicate they would be further in the spread, have less cara facilities (so people die faster) or more cases in the more vulnerables...(also likely to die faster). 

When you look at some countries with a good history on reporting/info;

Denmark cases +35%, deaths +48% (last week 61, last 7 days 90)

Ireland cases +81%, deaths +17% (last week 47, this week 55)

Portugal cases +86%, deaths -24%   Omicron just starting to spread, early phase ? 

Israel cases +76%, deaths -42%  did see allready Omicron cases weeks ago...young population, lots of booster-vaccines..

Norway cases -26%, deaths -70%...did see early high spread but may be indicating Omicron can be controlled

South Korea cases -13%, deaths +8% on its way to containing the outbreak ? 

I also take a look at China cases going up +47% there. Last week 606, this week 891...Chinese definition of a case is a symptomatic case. China is doing extreme high level of testing. Mega-cities with population 10 million+ being tested ALL in under 1 week....Very clear, strict, national plan. If in any region the virus shows up local government but also the population may know what to expect...Xi'an did see also a hanta-virus outbreak so extra steps were needed.  The local government trying to kill all the rodents spreading the hanta-virus in the street...of course it would be unwise to go outside then...

If I wanted to I could calculate if the high number of reported cases december 28 would compensate for lower cases being reported december 26, 27...I do expect today may see another 1 million + number so the "correction" is still going on with also Omicron (and most likely Delta) pushing up numbers in many regions...

Many countries are running out of testing capacity...so the reported numbers are even more unrealistic then they allready were before Omicron started to explode...The US-FDA warning lateral flow/DIY home testing may be "not that good" in picking up Omicron....

What to do ? 

-STOP THE SPREAD !!!! It is crazy a lot of air travel is going on during a pandemic !

-Increase testing/sequencing capacity....then increase testing. Bloodtests may help to find out how many CoViD cases were missed in the recent year or so....So one can get more realism in statistics/numbers...a lot of people may have had (mild/asymptomatic) CoViD and simply did not know. They may have infected others...even when vaccinated both. 

-Realism in vaccines...they are just one tool, not all of the tools ! You need restrictions to limit contacts...so limit spread...

-Make realistic LONG TERM plans ! Switching from "it is endemic" to "it is mild" , "summer/vaccines will save us" nonsense does NOT help to regain public trust ! And to have public following any rules they have to have leaders they can trust....

-For that matter de-politize this pandemic. In a major fire I don't want the mayor to lead the firefight but most experienced firefighters....There is a lot of expertism in many scientists able to come up with good strategies..."working group-project bases" (so also CDC etc kept out ?)

I think we can and will get out of this pandemic. We have not that much options....but for now limiting damage would allready be a good start. 

Just my opinion, not an expert...only sharing thoughts...

End of part 1

Some new info; 

BREAKING Weekly Hospital admissions in England per age groups last week on previous week: Total  8,329 +49% 0-5 286 +51% 6-17 226 +55% 18-64 4,144 +40% 65-84 2,478 +56% 85+ 1,195 +68% 1/

DJ Not good...JUST IN: France reports 208.000 new cases in 24 hours 

Also not good, yesterday France reported 179,807 cases, the day before 30,383...very limited christmas testing....AFP between december 22 and 28 worldwide increase of cases of 6,55 million; 936,000 per day. 

[url]https://edition.cnn.com/2021/12/27/health/covid-kids-hospitals/index.html[/url] or https://edition.cnn.com/2021/12/27/health/covid-kids-hospitals/index.html ;

DJ In the UK Parents shouldn't have to travel (which in itself can carry risks) to get their children access to life-saving vaccines that are still not being offered in the UK- despite being available in most places across W. Europe.

so parents take their children to France (if they are able). 

DJ More reinfections, Omicron evading vaccines, less testing, more children getting into hospital...

A look at yesterday worldometer new cases global 1,231,589 (+30%)

Europe had 684,896 new cases (+18% Europe under 60% of global cases)

North America 347,462 new cases (+69%)

South America 54,359 (+63% the America's together just over 401,000 cases )

Asia reported 89,015 cases, Africa 44,396 and Oceania 11,461 (of wich 11,267 in Australia trend +140%, New Zealand cases -21%)

"Those suffering under more socialist governments paying lots of tax for public health see less cases as an outcome"....

part 2, 

[url]https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/news-nation/covid-vaccines-complete-failure[/url] or https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/news-nation/covid-vaccines-complete-failure DJ-Hal Turner did publish a lot of non-sense on this pandemic. In the early phase he did take it serious, later on claimed it was non-sense....

DJ Vaccines are NOT a complete failure but the ongoing vaccine-STRATEGY (or lack of it) is !  Vaccinated people still do spread the virus, variants ! And that has been ignored from the start of mass vaccination in most countries. We now face a healthcrisis in wich immunity is being evaded, no longer working, because of that "strategy"....

I still am willing to believe vaccines may have saved millions of lives but did cause also a lot of healthproblems, killing possibly tens-of-thousends due to wrong reactions of the immune system, not aspirating, allergies....these problems are being underestimated "the show must go on"....

The vaccines did buy us time-governments used that time to reopen...not to think of any better strategies....with "experts ???" making all kind of welcome claims; from the virus "is running out of variants" to "endemic/we can live with it"....[url]https://nltimes.nl/2021/12/30/netherlands-preparing-three-covid-booster-rounds-2022[/url] or https://nltimes.nl/2021/12/30/netherlands-preparing-three-covid-booster-rounds-2022 ; The Cabinet is assuming that there will be three booster rounds for Covid-19 vaccines next year, including the current booster campaign, and at least one more in 2023. Health minister Hugo de Jonge provided the Tweede Kamer with that update in a letter sent on Wednesday.

So now it is "boosters will save us"....Even a lot of people that used to "believe" in vaccinations are now getting critical....Boosters for what ? 

To keep airlines ruining the climate ? Allow a rich elite flying around the planet wasting (tax)money ? 

After two years now in this pandemic it would be so welcome to see a way out, not sinking even deeper in the swamp and/or increasing speed in a dead end street (the one more passive, the other active...both deathly...).

A look at some twitter a.o. on hospital cases exploding with "mild" Omicron....[url]https://twitter.com/x2IndSpeculator[/url] or https://twitter.com/x2IndSpeculator ; U.S. COVID update: New cases set world record, number in hospital rising - New cases: 484,377 - Average: 302,132 (+34,394) - States reporting: 50/50 - In hospital: 84,293 (+5,594) - In ICU: 17,577 (+220) - New deaths: 1,937 - Average: 1,232 (-17) Data: https://newsnodes.com/us

-

Italy reports 98,030 new coronavirus cases, by far the biggest one-day increase on record, amid a rise in hospitalizations

DJ Some made the claim "vaccines did break the link between cases going up and hospital/ICU/deaths going up"....I think vaccines may have delayed that link only...One of my big worries is that when people realize "democracy turned into democrazy" the may get that angry....When politics do not serve the people but only the rich (as so often in history) "social unrest" may be a "mild description"....

Our findings confirm that the rapid spread of the Omicron VOC primarily can be ascribed to the immune evasiveness rather than an inherent increase in the basic transmissibility.

Link; [url]https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.12.27.21268278v1[/url] or https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.12.27.21268278v1 ;  Comparing households infected with the Omicron to Delta VOC, we found an 1.17 (95\%-CI: 0.99-1.38) times higher SAR for unvaccinated, 2.61 times (95\%-CI: 2.34-2.90) higher for fully vaccinated and 3.66 (95\%-CI: 2.65-5.05) times higher for booster-vaccinated individuals, demonstrating strong evidence of immune evasiveness of the Omicron VOC. Our findings confirm that the rapid spread of the Omicron VOC primarily can be ascribed to the immune evasiveness rather than an inherent increase in the basic transmissibility.

DJ, this Danish study simply indicates vaccines offer less protection against infection. Israel cases +107%, deaths -27% may leave some room for "hopium" that boosters may limit severe disease/deaths...at least for now. Omicron AND Delta both must be mutating like crazy....China cases +67% (last week 611, this week 1,019) in combination with dealing with the Xi'an hanta-virus outbreak is yet another warning ! 

CoViD-19 tends for recombination, Delta did seem to show increase of spread in non-human hosts, Omicron-mouse as a most likely source-may be even spreading more in non human hosts....With governments refusing any risks serious about "everything" can go wrong....

For the Romans end of the Roman Empire was unthinkable...yet it happened. Our "civilization" itself is at risk, from wars, climate change, gamble-economics to diseases out of control resulting in a "mega-mix"....[url]https://www.wormsandgermsblog.com/2021/12/articles/miscellaneous/new-update-a-guide-to-mitigating-the-risk-of-infection-in-veterinary-practices-during-the-covid-19-pandemic-2/[/url] or https://www.wormsandgermsblog.com/2021/12/articles/miscellaneous/new-update-a-guide-to-mitigating-the-risk-of-infection-in-veterinary-practices-during-the-covid-19-pandemic-2/ DJ-One of the reasons we may not find Omicron in animals is that we do NOT look for Omicron in animals....

Denise Dewald, MD 

@denise_dewald

·

10 u

They seem to think that if we all get sick in one fell swoop, it will be over. That’s not how it will work. More transmission means more variants. There is no durable immunity to a virus that is rapidly re-inventing itself.

DJ Most countries seem to have a "flat-earth" vision on this pandemic...disease-vaccine=end of pandemic....It does not work that way ! Vaccines are medical interventions with medical risks ! Vaccines should be part of a balanced strategy monitored by good testing, check ups on (vaccine)risks etc. We simply do not see that....THAT lack of strategy is doing so much more damage by now then the virus itself does....It is ruining supply chains, public trust, smaller bussinesses, many lives....and politics trying to look away.... and why ? 

DJ Increasing booster-vaccinations while NOT stopping the spread is becoming a sign of insanity...It opens the door to even more (sub)variants better in evading immunity....By now "saving the economy" must be clear non-sense with most workers getting ill....Is this pandemic a form of self-destruction ? 

End of part 2

part 4, 

Climate change may be in an "exponential phase"...[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Exponential_growth[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Exponential_growth / [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Exponential_growth#/media/File:Exponential.svg[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Exponential_growth#/media/File:Exponential.svg 

The graph illustrates how exponential growth (green) surpasses both linear (red) and cubic (blue) growth.

  Exponential growth

  Cubic growth

  Linear growth

Exponential growth is a process that increases quantity over time. It occurs when the instantaneous rate of change (that is, the derivative) of a quantity

DJ

This pandemic may bo going the same way. [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic#History[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic#History 

[url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ 

linear graph of cases more and more moving that way, deaths will follow that pattern with some delay...

One of the things to understand the virus does not care what host it can infect to recreate itself. It is not only getting better in evading immunity but also (related no doubt) getting better in reproducing itself in non human hosts. The statistics for this pandemic miss that-testing in non human hosts is very limited. 

There are less then 8 billion human hosts, non human hosts this virus can spread into should be in the hundreds of billions....the human host for this corona-virus is becoming less and less an issue.

However, for us humans, spread of CoViD-19 in non human hosts should alarm us. Somehow understanding spreading of CoViD19 into non-human hosts may signal exponential growth seems missing...

Omicron may have seen some of its development in mice [url]https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.12.14.472632v1.full[/url] or https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.12.14.472632v1.full .

CoViD-19/SARS-2 jumping up and down between species, several variants, sub variants, spreading-like most likely Delta and Omicron may do-able to infect a host at the same time causing even more mutations, recombinations...

The crazy number with wich the virus can spread-resulting in crazy number of mutations, exponential growth of (sub)variants [url]https://outbreak.info/situation-reports[/url] or https://outbreak.info/situation-reports Delta allready 209 sub-variants...

As long as the virus can spread this (for) free around the globe we are "on the highway to hell" full speed !

DJ-My hope for climate change-methane release maybe the main exponential factor [url]http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2021/12/terrifying-arctic-methane-levels.html[/url] or http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2021/12/terrifying-arctic-methane-levels.html is in the "unknown-unknowns"...we are not that clever...will landice slipping from Greenland into the North Atlantic limit climate change ? 

In this pandemic CoViD-19 "move away from humans" and become some main disease in rodents ? We may have seen CoViD-pandemics earlier in history [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1889%E2%80%931890_pandemic[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1889%E2%80%931890_pandemic and maybe CoViD-19 will become another cold-virus at the end still ? 

I simply do not know that much...that gives me hope...!

DJ, [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ reporting close to 1,9 million tested new cases worldwide, trend +47% with very likely that number only the tip of a gigantic pandemic iceberg. 

How bad these numbers are may depend on lots of things...vaccines/boosters still seem to offer some protection against severe disease...so far. 

South Africa cases now -34%, deaths -4%, Zimbabwe cases -41%, deaths +101% (69 to 139 so very limited). 

So what the numbers mean is a bit open....Yes-a "tsunami" in cases, with rules on isolation after testing positive/contact bringing a lot of disruption. Some people testing positive on day one may test negative on day two...others may even test positive on day 10....so may be infecting others...The Antarctica story-Belgian base there [url]https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1543002/Antarctica-news-Covid-Omicron-vaccinated-PCR-test-scientists-ont[/url] or https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1543002/Antarctica-news-Covid-Omicron-vaccinated-PCR-test-scientists-ont (KiwiMum did put a link in latest news, Antarctica is "next door" to New Zealand...;-) underlines Omicron may escape testing, quarantine....

So-hope has to be Omicron is mild and stays mild...with hospital cases allready going up around the globe...So these statistics-at best-may give limited indications, not much more...but we do not have that many options...

Five countries over 100,000 new cases;

USA 572,029 new cases december 30 +76%, deaths 1,362 -16% (and as good as all of those deaths NOT from Omicron !)

France 206,243 cases, +85%, deaths 180 +11% 

UK 189,213 cases, +42%, deaths 332 -34%

Spain 161,688 cases +94%, deaths 74 +24%

Italy 126, 888 cases +101%, deaths 156 +11%

The reason why US, UK deaths are going down is they were allready on high level....since the Omicron cases did go up recently most of the deaths still will be from Delta (developing itself still as well...). [url]https://github.com/cov-lineages/pango-designation/issues[/url] or https://github.com/cov-lineages/pango-designation/issues has two new Delta sublineages from Israel, a further split in AY.5 (allready split up in 5 sublineages itself AY.5.1 to AY.5.5) and AY.112 (There is allready a AY.112.1) For subvariants see [url]https://outbreak.info/situation-reports[/url] or https://outbreak.info/situation-reports 

[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SARS-CoV-2_Omicron_variant#Statistics[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SARS-CoV-2_Omicron_variant#Statistics now has 111 countries....(Delta so far detected in 178 countries...) 

NL cases -8%, deaths -17% Omicron dominant in all of NL, major (80%+) in Amsterdam....Restrictions and high speed booster campain may limit damage - buy us some time ? 

In South(ern) Africa Omicron may be decreasing-will that see Delta subvariants going up ? [url]https://outbreak.info/situation-reports/omicron?loc=ZAF&loc=GBR&loc=USA&selected=Worldwide&overlay=false[/url] or https://outbreak.info/situation-reports/omicron?loc=ZAF&loc=GBR&loc=USA&selected=Worldwide&overlay=false Omicron BA.1 is around 99% of all Omicron as far as testing/sequencing is finding out...

It would be very welcome if Omicron would be both very mild and the last major variant...but wishfull thinking, "hopium" has been very dominant in (lack of) strategies so far....We need MORE testing, sequencing, but testing capacity is going down...in part due to staff testing positive themselves, but also (a.o. in NL) testing-staff now working in booster vaccinations....

So several questions;

-How bad is it that Omicron cases explode like this ? Yes hospital cases going up in many countries, it may even bring some increase in ICU, deaths ? Healthcare is overstretched-but field/emergency hospitals, triage/selection of patients, optimizing HCW-ers (trained nurses, doctors for patients needing more care, other staff dealing with low(er) care patients) can do-for now-most of the job ? 

-How will Omicron, Delta, CoViD further develop ? Lots of mutations going on there...Omicron even better in evading immunity then Delta. Will new (sub)variants undo limited vaccine/booster protection ? 

-Non-human hosts...US deer see CoViD-19 spread but the "old" wild type...Delta may have been seen more in Zoo-animals ? How will Delta/Omicron spread in/via pets ? Birds can catch corona virusses, will some CoViD-variants mix with MERS (in camels ?)....what other animals could see a high level of spread with the virus jumping over to other species ? Denmark did deal with cluster5 in minks by killing all the minks...very limited spread of cluster-5 to humans.

My limited view-trying to make my mind up-is people may be able to limit risks...limited contacts will mean limiting spread. Children did not see vaccine protection, some indications of (strong) increase in children getting more serious illness....One questions is when to reopen schools...in many countries still closed due to christmas/new year....(Here in NL most schools may reopen january 10....government has to decide on that coming monday, january 3...lots of pressure on "childrens right on education" but also lots of warnings related to childrens health, poor ventilation and communication...).

Keeping the economy going may need better rules on masks on the workplace...limiting isolation/quarantine but at least sticking to (self) testing negative...A "priority-plan", government action, could be of help...food, water, safety should have more priority then holidays/skiing....For that matter the "conservative-pseudo liberal politics" -doing nothing-is not helping....

A look at twitter etc. trying to find out how others look at it...what info they have, further then numbers going up high speed....in part 2 later on...

End of part 1...