Exponential Growth - Stop and Read Immediately

*Update- go to the end of the thread for more current graphs

Fortunately, the direst predictions have not occurred. Relieved so far!!

0000

Not enough people are paying attention to this. The actual, reported infection rate data is following a near perfect exponential growth, matching up on a logarithmic scale. The math is brutal and inescapable.

If this continues, we are well and truly screwed. The travel "ban" is not stopping this sucker, not even close. In my opinion, the US and other countries need to ban all incoming flights from China, or institute mandatory quarantine for those who have traveled from China in the last 30 days. Extreme? Perhaps. But humans have no immunity to this, and there is no cure. A death rate that remains at 3% will be a catastrophe the modern era has never known. But I don't think anything short of massive and draconian measures are going to stop this. We have been warned.

Quotes from Twitter posts:
Exponential growth of #coronavirus infections. In a lot of places. The diagram uses a logarithmic scale. This allows to compare the #growth rates of #infections in different locations.https://mobile.twitter.com/t_kurz/status/1221854317944168448
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This is a log graph of #coronavirus cases, blue are data, orange is projected. spread is exponential At this rate, a single case could infect everyone on earth within 5 months and kill 1 billion people. https://mobile.twitter.com/prodreamer1/status/1222374250213859329
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#2019nCoV #coronavirus statistic trend 29/01/2020 update. Death rate continues to best fit a polynomial curve. Infection rate still best fits exponential growth curve. https://mobile.twitter.com/prodreamer1/status/1222374250213859329

Following #nCov incidences - I hope the model breaks out of its exponential growth phase. Pretty consistent doubling of cases every 2 days
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#Coronavirus Coronavirus Infected Cases & Prediction. This model was highly accurate so far. We're in trouble guys. 😟

Latest Numbers from WHO show that in about 2 days we are expected to reach 10,000 cases. so far we haven't seen and deviation from the expected exponential climb upwards. #coronavirus #ncov2020 #nCoV19   truly chilling to think soon we may have a big problem on our hands 😕🙁☹️😬 https://mobile.twitter.com/minhai22/status/1222044730097164288

-The problem with #Coronavirus is mathematics. Most people don't understand exponential function over time. On current course, this time next month, well over 1 million stand to lose their lives because of this virus. #health #pandemic #wuhan

I'm more interested in what happen if it

Takes off in India, Bangladesh....the sub-continent

With China now over 60.000 "under observation", very limited testing for the virus, at least 2% of people with the virus showing no fever-still spreading the only good news is that airlines stop flying to China since there is no demand.

Still so many cases are already "out of China" for the moment there is no easy way to slow down the spread.

Stopping major travel-all around the globe-to slow down the spread, stop mass-meetings-are seen as "draconic". Not doing so will show to be worse-the spread goes on.

Most likely already more cases out of any observation, hospital, testing etc. so statistics only catch the top of the problem-with most of the growth-and risks-out of sight for any organization.

They're acting like it's nothing because they're being told "We're safe". I'm sure officials are worried, but it's their job to keep the populace calm but it's being misleading.

pheasant wrote:     Albert needs to pin the projections, good catch Babycat.    I agree, we did some rough extrapolations on Friday or Saturday and it looked to follow roughly the same path, not quite as aggressive but still close.    One thing (among many) I'm waiting for is if the projections hold once the virus takes hold in western society...

Okay.

Good point. The rate at which new infections can be reported I think are being limited by the availability of testing kits, actual hospital visits, etc. How many more exist? Just a tip of the iceberg, imo.

What happens if/when this hits India? Africa? Would climate limit its spread like other coronoviruses like the common cold? Will we see waves/seasons of infections like 1917-1918?

I think it could be like then, but worse, because, like then, we have no immunity, there is no cure/vaccine, but we have air travel.

On the other hand, we have global social media and people can try to isolate themselves, which I think is the saving grace at the moment.

I still have contacts in China, and even outside of Hubei, the country is essentially shut down, public spaces (subways, stores, streets, buses,etc.) are deserted. Ghost towns. Everybody is inside, self-quarantined. Contacts post pics and videos of deserted streets, how bored they are at home for 10 days now, how shops are out of various items, how expensive food is now as food production/distribution has essentially halted, since it is mostly poorer folks working these kinds of jobs, and if travel is limited, they cannot work.

At what point, because of this, will the infection rate curve start to change inflection? (The slope becomes smaller or first derivative changes)) Will it be in a few days or a few weeks? This virus is now "out in the wild" and unfortunately the impact is only going to be delayed or reduced, not eliminated, until we get a vaccine or an effective treatment. I only hope like many viruses, its virulence reduces as it infects more people. As someone who appreciates the math, I want to see more data, but as a human being, that data going forward comes at an enormous cost.

Here in Northern California, the Bay Area is home to many people with current ties (recent travel, or connected to those with recent travel) to Mainland China. I suspect this virus is already circulating here as a result, and health departments and people are naively assuming there are fewer carriers than I suspect there is. So, I started wearing a mask in public. I don't care what anyone else thinks anymore, besides, no one cares anyway here. This is the time to do so I believe because we have so many unknowns, unknown Ro, unknown incubation or transmission vectors (eyes?), unknown virus hardiness, high attack rate (20% serious rate per WHO), asymptomatic shedding, and H2H transmission. I am not going to wait until "the government" tells me what I should do first.

Ruh-ro. Today's new figures puts us ABOVE THE line with continued exponential growth:

Coronavirus update:
- 7,811 confirmed cases worldwide
- 12,167 suspected cases
- 170 fatalities
- 1,370 in serious/critical condition
- 124 treated and released
- All regions of China reporting cases
- 17 countries reporting cases

https://twitter.com/BNODesk


Yikes!!

My prediction - WHO will belatedly issue a worldwide pandemic alert tomorrow, simultaneously with CDC declaration of additional US cases. Also, see more airlines shut down all airline travel to China, followed by most countries closing off Chinese airline carriers. Like Boeing's plane 727-MAX, the US is going to be leading from behind on this one, following other countries.

Please stop with the panic tones. The current type A flu that has a vaccine you can still get has killed over 9000 people in the US alone. Many of these are children under 5 with known preexisting medical issues. This pandemic flu one of the ones we are way overdue for will take out the old and the young infirm for the next 6 months in countries with poor medical facilities . A vaccine will be here within that time. This novel strain already has been sequenced by the Chinese and shared with the world. Many labs are working off prior coronavirus strains with vaccines already cutting the time to manufacturing vaccines in half. Most everyone in this forum are prepping . We know how to SIP. If you still don’t its time to learn. For the rest of us take a deep breath and lets calmly go forward into this calamity

I suppose you are correct, no need to sound panicked. It is a bit much of a doom and gloom. Thank you for that.

But it is certainly concerning.

I do believe that things will be alright in the end.

I was just reading the story of vaccine pioneer, Edward Jenner, a fascinating story if you have a bit of time. In the late 1700s, smallpox killed 10% up to 20% of the English population. His brilliant observation that cowpox was quite similar to smallpox, led hi to test on James Phillips, the 8 year old son of his gardener (probably didn't get permission I imagine) to deliberately infect him with cowpox from the pus of an infected milkmaid. When the boy came down with a fever but recovered, he deliberately infected him this time with pus from a smallpox victim, this time he survived well.

Fortunately, we have made incredible advances in the development of vaccines as you noted, so now it's just a matter of time.

I hope many can protect themselves long enough until it is available.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Edward_Jenner

I agree Kiwimum...many people who do not prep will come to this site and ask what to do. We have always said purchase can goods you always use just get more of them, get batteries, keep your gas tank full, buy bottle water.

None of us has panicked but we just stepped up what we are keeping in our homes as extra food, water, drugs and candies . We are all very concerned because if this is bad and spreads here and in NZ we want to help as many people as we can.

Yep i agree. She's full blown pandemic! I ran a few graphs. The R0 is approximately R2.5 over a 10 day cycle.

I consider myself a fence sitter having experienced many viruses here on this site. However. This one has everything adding up to a grand catastrophe.

The authorities wont be able to keep up. There will be panic. Hospitals will overflow. Its going to be chaos.

PLEASE REST ASSURED The death rate is not high. I don't believe that many will die as the death rate is less than 1%.

You can guarantee people will panic so be careful.

good luck all..

New graphs today:

That is one of the most classic cases of an exponential curve I have ever seen.

What's really frightening, is, if you are watching the numbers, is that total deaths are greater than total recovered right now, 171 to 143. That's of a set of confirmed, rather than total infected who have survived.

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

BabyCat wrote: What's really frightening, is, if you are watching the numbers, is that total deaths are greater than total recovered right now, 171 to 143. That's of a set of confirmed, rather than total infected who have survived.

Or “cured” as many people seem to think.

Yep. What pheasant said

Heres the chart. I pegged the start in November. This is an R2.5 and ten day cycle.

Having worked on a possible H5N1 out break in 05. Here is a projection. World wide full exposure by the 4th of July. No vac will be ready by then. This takes into account maximum efforts to slow the spread down and people doing their best to not get sick. Based just on my previous work and how we saw the Bird flu play out, I would expect most of the power grid to stay up and local water supply to stay active. The JIT supply lines will present a problem for those that have not prepared for this. I suspect that no one on this site will be caught with their pants down and not ready.

Way too early to panic and panic is never the right response.

This is nasty and I personally beleieve, that it is far nastier than we are being told. But panic never helped anyone. It only gets in the way of being sensible.

When the nasty finally arrives on your doorstep, THEN you SIP. Before that, stock up what you can and stop panicking over what you can't.

Isolation is the key. The masks, glasses, gloves, aprons etc. offer a tiny bit of protection, alcohol gel slightly more, good hygene practices are better still and isolation is the best protection of all.

You still have some prepping time.

Our FluMom is worth listening to. She has the whole process pegged. I have watched what she said and it makes more sense than most people. You won't get soft, sloppy sentiment from her - just good solid commonn sense.

Wow. So they won’t be able to count the infected soon?

But I'm sure China will soon increase production of kits. They can, and do, anything they can in a big way when they want to, and this comes from the top (Emperor Xi). Xi must know that to lose this battle risks being seen as losing the 'mandate of heaven' in Chinese dynastic lore, and thus risks being pushed out.

This fresh tweet from BNO indicates the problem:


BNO Newsroom
@BNODesk
·
18m
The numbers are from the day before. There are also limitations to how many people can get tested every day. Right now there are 9,822 confirmed cases but more than 15,000 are still being tested


--

That means there are, right now, likely 25,000 probable cases in China, since, remember, the docs are only testing if a patient is obviously extremely ill. as many reports have suggested, with such a limited testing kit supply.

Right there, is the bottleneck. Still exponential.

Remember the reports last week, or 90,000 or more? True. China now have over 100,000 under observation.

This also means, prepare for exponentially rising confirmed numbers, closer to 25,000 in two, maybe three days.

This indicates extreme infectiousness, as suggested also by the dozens of countries now with confirmed cases. Ro could, as China has indicated, be closer to 4.

I believe it's no longer possible to contain this, only delaying it to your door, and figuring out the actual CFR. The Titanic has just hit an iceberg, and people are still kicking around the ice on the deck.

I think the numbers are tailing off because China can't keep up with counting them. - We know they have insufficient kits (Thank you QuietPrepper*) BabyCat has pointed this out and so has FluMom** - both of whom seem to 'grock'the situation. I agree.

In my humble opinion, the numbers are simply growing too large for the massively overstretched Chinese system to count.






*http://www.avianflutalk.com/incredible-citizen-reporter-video-from-wuhan_topic40581_post282694.html?KW=test+kits#282694

**http://www.avianflutalk.com/incredible-citizen-reporter-video-from-wuhan_topic40581_post282699.html?KW=test+kits#282699