Exponential Growth - Stop and Read Immediately

There is clearly some bending at the log scale. Good news, as the Chinese quarantine effect may be starting to show up. Either that, like many others, even the NYT, is that the Chinese are just intentionally manipulating the reported numbers. After my experience in China, I'd bet it's the latter. Still, the quarantine effect may actually be there, just that imagine reported numbers at 10-20% of actual.

Optimistic case?

This is my first post. I read the medium article that since been taken down (finally found it, somebody saved it) Until I read this article by https://jameslyonsweiler.com/. That is the root page, the article is 'On the origins of the 2019 nCoV virus, Wuhan, China'
The article seems to be the best I've seen so far that explains the possibilities of 2019 nCoV beginning.
It gives 4 possibilities and one of them is the accidental release of a virus that (I think) was intended to be a vaccine for China, researched in secret (of course). This makes the most sense to me simply because it doesn't make sense for China to deliberately kill their own people. It also makes sense because for them politics overrides everything.
In this case, James Weiler (I assume) says that China has a huge humanitarian problem on it's hands, BUT it should NOT spread out of China the same way that it is spreading IN CHINA.
The article just seems to me to be the best one that I have read.
I'm going to post this in other sites similar to avianflutalk.com.
I would like other people's opinion on this. Eventually me may find the truth, hopefully (aside from everybody catching 2019 nCoV too)
Richard

What do you think is the best explanation?

I Agree (again with Technophobe)

Pointing fingers is futile....and juvenile

It's like at work if you get a cold and someone gets it the day after

And they blame You....

Childish......

I don't like to put myself in the place of a biowarfare designer, but I had a go.

It occured to me that a moderate death rate could be an advantage.

It allows greater spread. Big killers like ebola tend to burn themselves out.

Who is the target? Individual people - then you want a big killer! or infrastructure - then you want to tie up the hospitals, doctors, dentists, opticians, suppliers of goods and services - you would need a moderate death rate - high enough for panic, low enough and slow enough to knacker the system!

There could be a use for a big killer, but they do not strike me as the only option. I know I'm not in the know, but this is just the sort of thing I would use.

Exactly!

Exponential growth out of China continues:

"On February 4, there were 38 new cases outside mainland China, the biggest daily increase to date
Quote Tweet

BNO Newsroom
@BNODesk
· Feb 4
A little bit of good news about coronavirus: The number of new cases outside mainland China is currently declining:

Jan. 31: 28 new cases
Feb. 1: 14 new cases
Feb. 2: 11 new cases
Feb. 3: 6 new cases"

-As I've mentioned previously, 1-2 week incubation period and reporting/testing lag time. It's reasonable to prepare for continued increases. Whether or not they are exponential, remains to be seen. However, it does appear to be the case.

There's talk of a 5 day doubling rate for nCov cases, being reported on UK radio this morning. The official figures from John Hopkins tracker, seems to show a significant rise in cases but lower rise in death rates!!, If I'm not mistaken...maybe hope at last !?

More discussion on Twitter about possible deceleration in latest numbers, and move away from exponential to sub-exponential. There is talk about fitting quadratics, third degree polynomials, etc.

I think perhaps this is possible, if one could trust the numbers. I don't. I think they are published to create a narrative.

Here are some graphs to think about. The latter ones are from a paper which describes the exponential growth characteristics of epidemics. Pay particular attention to how Ro affects the expoential growth rate. Essentially, unless Ro is less than 2 some how, some way (whether by reduced transmission, quarantine, social distancing, vaccination, etc.) this is still going to be a very big problem in the months to come not only for China, but for the world.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5348083/

Mathematical models to characterize early epidemic growth: A Review
Gerardo Chowell,1,2 Lisa Sattenspiel,3 Shweta Bansal,4,2 and Cécile Viboud2

Discussion that the numbers are staged:

"
@evdefender
Fraud investigator preparing for the Elon Musk congressional hearings. Tracking #coronavirus because Elon says it's the common cold.
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R^2 = 1.0000
@evdefender
·
7h
We finally overshot the Hubei #CoronaVirus predictions by a bit:

Feb. 5 Hubei Province

Cases: 19,665 (+2987)
Deaths:       549 (+70)

This marks the narrative's first reported decrease in daily acceleration.

Quote Tweet

R^2 = 1.0000
@evdefender
· 21h
From the Feb. 4 data, Hubei (1/31 regions) had 69% of "confirmed" Mainland #coronavirus cases.

Yet, Hubei model adjusts more than the full Mainland: harder prediction. 🤔

I'd post these for Hubei tonight to maintain narrative:

Cases: 20,218 (+3540)
Deaths:       562 (+83)
Show this thread
R^2 = 1.0000
@evdefender
·
6h
Feb. 5 Mainland China #CoronaVirus: A New Narrative!

Cases: 28,018 (+3694)
Deaths:       563 (+73)

The Good?:
Finally overshot a bit as it's the 1st time new cases less than previous day!

The Bad?:
It's all a goal seek on (-0Day) Mortality = 2.01%

Quote Tweet

R^2 = 1.0000
@evdefender
· 18h
Tonight's Mainland #CoronaVirus numbers posted 11 hours before the release if I were in charge of maintaining the narrative and leaning on the optimistic side as stated previously.

Let's hope I'm high this time.

Cases: 28,678 (+4,354)
Deaths:      578      (+88)
Show this thread
R^2 = 1.0000
@evdefender
·
6h
A major observation here is the mortality rate calculated on a day/day or (-0 Day) basis, which is wound very tightly around 2.01% regardless of fit on # of cases.

It has also been very steady with a slight decline seeking 2.0% since the narrative change Jan 27.

#coronavirus
R^2 = 1.0000
@evdefender
Tomorrow is Important:

Today marks the 1st day in the last 10 where I can't simply explain the point by a pre-determined quadratic.

It is therefore their 1st attempt at introducing some variability into the model or a shift in the narrative to begin a rollover."
https://mobile.twitter.com/evdefender/status/1225217509000761344?

@evdefender makes a great point. The numbers being reported are too perfect. That is, fit neatly into a quadratic of R2 = 1.00 (well, .995 or better).

In a moving chaotic situation such as this, the numbers shouldn't all fit perfectly on the curve!!!! They are totally managing the reported infections and the fatality rate to try to make it so that they can appear to have "won the battle" no matter the truth (or the dead bodies) on the ground. China has buried the truth (and the evidence, and millions of bodies) before, and they will do it again.

It's obviously a false narrative. China lies. It's what they do. I lived there.

Wishful thinking? Wrong conclusion based on a faulty assumption the data is correct?

--

https://mobile.twitter.com/d_voigtlaender/status/1225530773102628865

Dirk Voigtländer
@d_voigtlaender
The daily percentage increase in laboratoy-confirmed cumulated corona infections seems to decline by c.1%pt per day. Should this trends continue the number of new cases should peak mid February and hopefully be further reduced in the time beyond. #coronavirus #coronavirusoutbreak

I wish our homeland security and cdc would pay attention to your spot on post which I mentioned 3 weeks ago that those numbers looked fishy compared to boots on the ground resources

Do you think it is following the same curve as Avian Flu in 2009. At the conference in DC today at 2 pm the Asian Dr mentioned that. She seemed to down play corona virus numbers out of China but said that a second wave in the Fall would be the one the US needed to prepare for

Well, there appears to be some good news in the graphs and models I have found (below). Whether it's an artificial narrative, or reality, remains to be seen.

The real story is internationally at this point, I believe. Will it take off, is it taking off in some place at this moment?

It's apparently a new day in falsified data land...

pheasant wrote: I agree with you Babycat, furthermore, the government is on a major propaganda campaign right now...slogans like fight the enemy, win the battle, sacrifice for victory etc:    They are in a war.

I agree with you both - I call BS...all those thousands of people standing in lines, waiting in hospital hallways etc should all be simmering into full blown cases pretty soon. Xi is a self inflated egomaniac...just saying...has WAY more concern about saving face (his!) then the people under his dictatorship rule!

Exponential growth over any long length of time need to take in account of seasonal variations as growth would depend upon outside temperature.
These viruses are seasonal dependent
   

International cases rising 18% day. I did a quick breakdown projection, where we might be in 30, 60, 90 days at that rate.

Day 1 326 (today)
2 385
3 454
4 536
5 632
6 746
7 880
8 1038
9 1225
10 1446
11 1706
12 2013
13 2015
14 2378
15 2806
16 3311
17 3907
18 4610
19 5440
20 6419
21 7575
22 8939
23 10548
24 12,447
25 14,6687
26 17,331
27 20,450
28 24,131
29 28,475
30 33,600
31 39,649
32 46,786
33 55,207
34 65,144
35 76,870
36 90,707
37 107,034
38 126,300
39 149,034
40 175,860
41 207,515
42 244,868
43 288,944
44 340,954
45 402,326
46 474,745
47 560,199
48 662,034
49 780,021
50 920,424
51 1,086,101
52 1,281,599
53 1,512,286
54 1,784,498
55 2,105,708
56 2,484,735
57 2,931,987
58 3,459,745
59 4,082,499
60 4,817,349

61 5,684,472
62 6,707,677
63 7,915,058
64 9,338,769
65 11,929,927
66 13,994,694
67 15,345,539
68 18,107,736
69 21,367,129
70 25,213,212
71 29,751,590
71 35,106,876
72 41,426,114
73 48,882,815
74 57,681,721
75 68,064,431
76 80,316,029
77 94,772,914
78 111,832,038
79 131,961,805
80 155,714,930
81 183,743,617
82 216,817,468
83 255,844,613
84 301,896,643
85 356,238,049
86 420,360,886
87 496,025,845
88 585,310,497
89 690,666,387
90 815,986,337

---

Conclusion: Would it hurt to be a little prepared for this, in case (God forbid), it happens like this?

Trend outside China is clearly exponential, while supposed trend now in China somewhat stabilizing. I don't buy it, especially the supposed death count.