Exponential Growth - Stop and Read Immediately

Comments on chart below, Japan's, France's and Germany's (and followed closely by Spain's) numbers are entering into more obvious (to the average person), exponential rise. The EU and UK raised the threat level to the highest I read. Also, Iran's and Italy's (and the US') CFR rates suggest significantly more infections than confirmed. 

Even WHO pushing up the CFR.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2020/03/03/coronavirus-live-updates/#link-FZWCUE6QH5AVLCAB2UUN4BHBQM

Still 20%-60% attack rate. Still very bad. If CFR is 3%, follow the logic, do the math.

20% of US population (350 M) = 70 Million -> 70 * .03 = 2.1 Million Americans dead. 

60% = 6.3 Million Americans dead. 

It could take a scythe to the elderly and those living with health conditions....(shudder)

Here are some US and other country death totals from war. To put things into perspective. 

Here's another good website for county by country (you can look up your country), and total infection confirmations/death figures. 1 day lag update time, some data is still a bit spotty, but generally accurate. 

https://www.kff.org/global-health-policy/fact-sheet/coronavirus-tracker/ 

BabyCat wrote: But this is simply, hands down, the best website for tracking data. It's a live Google spreadsheet, and has over 120 volunteers.  https://covid2019.azurewebsites.net/ US is at 122 now, other sites can't keep up.

WOW... South Korea at 5,328

US Projections based on current counts (could be revised later this evening). I consider these very low estimates (but have to use the data available), based on previous under-testing (suppression), and now greatly expanded testing along with loosed testing criteria. 

Each day will add another data point. I believe the US will follow Italy in terms of disease spread. 

And that last site, is the FASTEST with reported cases. 126 in US now, all others are at 122 still. 

I'm going to use them often if they can keep up. 

https://coronavirus.1point3acres.com/en

The site also have CANADA data, and it is in English (didn't see the tab).

My next projection should scare you if you haven't been paying attention.

Projects 100,000 cases worldwide (ex-China) by March 15...in 12 days. 

I believe it's going to happen, no matter what the authorities do, because they've already shown inaction, delayed reaction, too little, too late. It's already baked in the cake, considering the incubation period and hidden cases, and lack of preparedness worldwide. The front line medical staff in some countries may start to fall. Even if all countries were to go into lock-down tomorrow (which they won't), I'm convinced it will probably still happen. Whether it's a combination of Iran spillover, or Japan, or Germany, or Italy, or West Coast USA, it's going to add up to that, because if it's not there, it'll be elsewhere, and then everywhere, after that. 

It will start, like Italy and Korea, as a small fire, then, if not properly handled, explode into a firestorm.  Pretty soon, one of the embers is going to drop onto a powderkeg (e.g. a dense, urban network, like Calcutta, or New York, or Paris, or Cairo, or Berlin, or Sao Paolo, or Osaka, or Tokyo, or Mumbai, or Dehli, or Chicago, or London, or...

Quick question- does anyone think that coronavirus will be put on the back burner for most folks? I mean  not a priority anymore? Maybe because of "coronavirus news fatigue"? Or because folks have very short attention spans and if this thing isn't right in my backyard at this moment, then nothing to worry about.
I think there will be a time where others will just ignore it all. Only a few of us will understand what is really going on or even care.

Yes, people already seem to be tired of hearing about it, but denial of reality can only last so long as a protective mechanism..when the problem can no longer be ignored, dismissed, ridiculed, argued against, or minimized. These will be the people who will panic the most, and become desperate. Desperate people do desperate things. 

Just because it's happening "over there" doesn't mean it can't "happen here." The messaging from the CDC is saying it "can happen here" which is important to condition people.  Cognitive dissonance writ large, for the most part. 

But, look, you can try to convince others, but it's really not your job. It's almost too late for a large governmental response. It just ensures the eventual problem and the necessary response just keeps getting larger and larger. Look at Italy. They can't contain it. They cancelled all public events, cinemas, etc. Just prepare yourself and those who are open to it. Others? Well, they make their own choices. 

The fellows at work were downplaying it, and didn't want to hear about it last 2 weeks...so I have been quiet.

   starting Friday people are waking up, so now they are more attentive to the news.....most if not all of the conclusions we here at AFT have been talking about are accurate....that is a testament to all the hard work everyone here is doing, we are certainly ahead of the curve....Congrats to all!

   As to the "news fatigue" I personally have been hit with it, tracking this, checking and making sure we have what we need is draining.....I took some time and recharged...that was refreshing.

Everyone needs to make some diversions and do fun things, or you will burn out....I'm thinking this will be a steady trickle, with mini floods of news, over the next 4-8 weeks...maybe over 12 weeks

Well, 3 more cases in my county, Santa Clara County,for a total of 14, which is probably the second highest number outside of WA/King Cty....

2 are local transmission, 3 under investigation:

https://www.sccgov.org/sites/phd/DiseaseInformation/novel-coronavirus/Pages/home.aspx 

They have also updated their advisories and recommendations, now recommending elderly and at risk to stay indoors, avoid public gatherings, etc. and for employers to start exploring work from home options, among many other NPIs (non-Pharrmaceutical interventions). They are also openly messaging and discussing school related issues, abseeism, remote learning, etc.. It's getting very close to confirmed breakout.

I read a great analysis similar to what I've been suggested with the 11 deaths so far, which, like Iran, is likely only a small fraction of current cases, and we still aren't reacting fast enough. 

I fear it's going to get a whole lot worse before it gets better. 

Back to my projections...

A few days ago, I used 22% as an interim guiding factor...it's held up well for a few days:

                            Projection   Actual (as of early eve. 3/4)

But, like I said, this 22% won't likely hold for long, as you can see by the numbers it's accelerating. We're only now able to catch up confirming what already probably exists (maybe in the low thousands across the country right now). Trouble is, without this confirmatory early testing, we are running blind to try to contain, contact trace, mitigate..

Good evening. There are now 15,627 worldwide ex-China infections, a number which is climbing as I type this. Disturbingly, the daily increase is also (as expected though, accelerating as well). Twice, in trying to create some charts, dramatic additions were made to the total .The day isn't even over yet (the way I've been calculating the 'day' at least). This site has the fastest ex-China world and country specific updates:

https://covid2019.azurewebsites.net/ 

This site has the fastest US updates:

https://coronavirus.1point3acres.com/en 

Now on to some fresh charts:

The last chart has a more updated figure.

Recent charts -

First, some "good news". Although I don't believe China's numbers, the trend, from the evidence coming from China, does appear true. They have apparently, through extreme social control, succeeded in limiting the devastation of the epidemic. There are certainly open questions whether that can be maintained with them slowly getting back to work, but it does appear larger, far more devastating harm has been greatly reduced. Can the rest of the world do the same? Will it? When? How? That's what I don't understand. The world watched China battle, and her people suffer, and pretend that it wasn't as great a threat to them. North Korea immediately locked down, shut the border, deported foreigners, etc. It's an extreme state, and an extreme example, but you get the idea. Why are stronger surveillance, containment, mitigation measures being taken right now, in the most critical time period? I don't get it. Singapore also showed how to hold the monster in the can, by sitting on it (the world's finest disease control, as demonstrated when it really matters), while its tentacles writhed out at anything it could grab hold of. 

Guys most of us have done what we can to prep.  We can do no more, rest easy that you have what you need and in a few weeks you will not be those people looking at empty shelves worried.  I am calm even though I am going to tell my boss that I am going on a leave of absence starting at the end of March.  I love my life and my son and I want to be here for him as he goes through life.  I love and trust the Lord and I rest easy that he is in control of my life and what He decides if fine with me.  I just did my best for me and my family.

Good morning, it's March 5, and there are currently 208 confirmed infections in the US ( https://coronavirus.1point3acres.com/en ) 

As I projected a few days ago, the rate is now exceeding 22%. 

So far today (day isn't even half over!)

Prepare for bad news. 

Thank you BabyCat for all your hard work. I have such a packed schedule I barely have time to prepare for this and keep my head above water in day to day life in normal circumstances. Your data has been spot on and I really appreciate your diligence. 👏🏻👏🏻👏🏻

SIX new, confirmed cases of unknown origin in my county, Santa Clara County. It's a s*%tstorm and I'm right in the middle of it. My family is still going out, and I'm hoping the county will declare an emergency and force school closings/work from home orders, so they stay safe, because they aren't able (or willing yet) to "turtle"  like I have. But, I'm as prepared as I could be I suppose, given the time that I've had. 

If I, and a family members is confirmed, I'll think about letting you know. It would be a tough call, you know, what with privacy on one hand, and my sense of obligation, as you've seen in this thread, to warn others....

BabyCat wrote: SIX new, confirmed cases of unknown origin in my county, Santa Clara County. It's a s*%tstorm and I'm right in the middle of it. My family is still going out, and I'm hoping the county will declare an emergency and force school closings/work from home orders, so they stay safe, because they aren't able (or willing yet) to "turtle"  like I have. But, I'm as prepared as I could be I suppose, given the time that I've had.  If I, and a family members is confirmed, I'll think about letting you know. It would be a tough call, you know, what with privacy on one hand, and my sense of obligation, as you've seen in this thread, to warn others....

I spent 20 odd years in Santa Clara County (mostly San Jose). This is so hard to hear about. Just stay safe and healthy. :-)  Sending blessings... 

This guy is a snark master.

EVent Horizon

@evdefender

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1h

Imagine if you knew Katrina was coming and how much damage it would do at least 2 months in advance but waited to evacuate people until after the storm hit

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FxMacro

@fxmacro

 · 4h

PENCE SAYS U.S. DOES NOT HAVE ENOUGH CORONAVIRUS TESTS TODAY TO MEET ANTICIPATED DEMAND GOING FORWARD

Don't forget, Bernie Sanders held a big rally in San Jose 4 days ago...I fear that the event was just a disaster vector for the virus, the city, and the country. Bernie's team are travelling everywhere. Will they be tested if any are showing symptoms?

I mean, history doesn't usally repeat, but, good God, are we this stupid??