Dr Fauci figures a 100,000 Americans dead (says 100-200 in article)   

 https://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/world/fauci-says-coronavirus-deaths-in-us-could-top-100000/ar-BB11S5cj?ocid=spartanntp

Yes stay at home....Today's morning radio news had an item about how  "the week without work" (but with full pay) has backfired in Russia.  Instead of staying at home masses of people who no longer had to work spent the time traveling to visit friends.   

BTW Putin is another of the world leaders who have down played this pandemic.

Newbie1A wrote: Dr Fauci figures a 100,000 Americans dead (says 100-200 in article)     https://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/world/fauci-says-coronavirus-deaths-in-us-could-top-100000/ar-BB11S5cj?ocid=spartanntp

I think Dr. Fauci is being conservative, to avoid creating panic. 

On AFT, I made the prediction that the WuHan virus was likely a corona-virus, like SARS, back on Jan 8, 2020.   After a few weeks, I took pen to paper and came up with this calculation, assuming that no control steps would be taken (sent by email to the FBI doctors I work with): 

"US population is presently about 331 million souls. if about 1/3 of us are at highest risk

for serious illness, the denominator is 100 million. CFR may be 2%, so 2 million might

die from this one in the US."

 Shortly thereafter, our British colleagues came out with their model, predicting the following: 

Over the last 2 days I have been getting more and more optimistic. It seems like number of new cases and new deaths starting to level off in many places. Yes lots of cases, deaths, and health systems overloaded all over the place...so we all need to STFH to do our part. But important things like 5-min tests are starting to come on line here in the US. And growing evidence (Yes it's anecdotal.. but this is a Pandemic) that anti-malarial drugs given early enough before lung damage occurs in at-risk population has me thinking this nasty bug gets knocked down quickly as long as drug production ramps up with a flattened curve. I am hopeful deaths equivalent to a really bad flu season and everything back to normal in a few months. Not letting down my guard. We are SIP and will continue to do so. Just wanted to share a different perspective. Here is a link to an article today FDA approval last night and 30 million doses donated to the US national stockpile (enough to treat about 3 million people I think) and other manufacturers out there ramping up production. Stay safe.

https://news.yahoo.com/fda-emergency-authorizes-malaria-drugs-115945660.html

Bolsanaro is a public menace, health is but one part of it.

THIS. 

India.

Know the scale of the tragedy this portends. 

https://mobile.twitter.com/PhdParody/status/1244775812345274370

OMG. It's possible the virus is accelerating faster than we can test, isolate, and treat: 50% of those tested in NY were positive:

https://twitter.com/lookner/status/1245017501173518356

To control the pandemic, Breining said, you’d want to test enough people that the percent of positive tests falls to about 10%. At Northwell, this “positivity rate” can approach 50% on some days. 

“That positivity rate tells us we’re only testing a fifth of the patients we’d want to be testing, ideally, if we had unlimited testing available,” Breining said.

https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/31/test-makers-are-moving-fast-but-the-coronavirus-may-be-moving-faster/

BabyCat wrote: I am now concerned the flattening in the curve is due to testing capacity limitations.

Yep, me too.

Ah, yes. I was warning people around me like a lunatic since late January..I was told by my employer to "stop freaking everyone out". I was right. Everything I said was right. I doubt they'll reopen their doors anytime soon. There's a story there to be told some day. Warnings on deaf ears. For a few weeks I just looked at everything like it was the last time I would see it normally again. 

As far as testing limitations go, it appears we have a recent testing capacity probi:

https://mobile.twitter.com/Noahpinion/status/1245108325512925184

More evidence of current peak in testing:

https://mobile.twitter.com/biancoresearch/status/1245130248317997059

I think that will change shortly, but still, danger is confirmations lagging behind spread 

WM. I respect your courage to speak your thoughts freely - I can tell you are a true New Yawker!

I know you don't mean ill, and not the unnecessary death and suffering of anyone, and I think your thought is more metaphorical (generational ideas). It's the duty of each generation to take the reins and make it their own, evaluating the wisdom and preciousness of what they've inherited. It's a sacred trust. For example, America's republic...if we can keep it.

For me, I too odten hesitate. "Minnesota Nice" coupled with "Finnish silence" makes me want to scream from the mountaintop, but then...not, and later wish I did.

Other governments, like the one who issues my passport but which denies me the vote, only count case that die in a hospital - if they die elsewhere they do not officially have Corvid-19.  

ps. If I was given the vote I would not vote for Boris (sorry Tech!)

We here on AFT have been ahead of the curve all along, Kitten - and you have been illustrating it beautifully.  Thank You!

The information (despite China's best efforts) has been out there for all to see, if they bothered to look like we did.  Surely governments must have the equivalent of what we do in their analysts and I would think they had more information to start with.  I think each level in the various chains of command have downplayed the risks, so the further up the chain the message rose the weaker it became.  Denial is a powerful force, so is fear of redundancy.  I don't just mean America, I mean everywhere!

Heigh ho.  Many of our readership are SIP.  Considering the doubling rate, we probably saved quite a few.

Today is April 3rd, and a sad milestone has been reached over 1,000,000 worldwide ex-China infection (1,017,133 at the moment). 

Looking back over this thread, I wanted to see how my projections fared.

 ***Posted February 6th***

BabyCat wrote: Well, someone asked to make a bit of a prediction of cases internationally in the next 30, 60 , or 90 days. Of cousse, the way this virus transmits depends on the healthc are system surveillance and response, government infection intervention efforts, the density of the area it may be transmitting in, their hygiene, etc. etc. etc. However, one estimate an expert is working with said that it's doubling every 5 days, roughly. Well, we can simply take our current infections and then see what happens every five days, right? Here's what could happen internationally: Today: 270 5 560 10 1120 15 2240 20 4480 25 8960 30 17,920 35 35,940 40 71,680 45 143,360 50 286,720 55 573,440 60 1,146,880 In the US, there are currently 12 infections. 5 24 10 48 15 96 20 192 25 384 30 768 35 1536 40 3072 45 6144 50 12,288 55 24,576 60 49,182 While these figures don't seem "that" frightening, they do seem a bit ominous. Hence, while I think all the talk is of "delaying" and "preparing" for the possible pandemic. I don't imagine the US getting to that high figure, that soon, at this time. I think that strong contact tracing, case identification, and other measures (that layered response they talk about) will pay off like it did for the SARS response. That, and I have faith this President is going to take this very, very seriously and do what needs to be done. Another really important point is that one expert (Dr. Neil) said maybe 25% of international cases have been indentified yet). Others may not be reconginized, or are/were mild cases, but still transmissable. Also, remember the reported case severity of identified cases is about 25%.

Conclusions:

The international projection was BANG ON from 60 days out (it's Day 57, and projected 1,146,880 on Day 60 - will probably hit that well, tomorrow or the next day (Day 58 or 59).

The US estimate was a a severe underestimate (today have 277,999) due to a severe lack of testing and surveillance and tracing. The greatest US policy failure EVER.

My confidence in President Trump to react early in the right ways was misplaced.

It's pretty grim however you look at it. Did you see the reports coming out of Ecuador? The bodies lying on the streets?

KiwiMum wrote: It's pretty grim however you look at it. Did you see the reports coming out of Ecuador? The bodies lying on the streets?

Yes, saw them immediately as posted on Twitter (Guayaquil - yo hablo espanol tambien). It's bad, extremely underreported, and surging, likely to spread beyond. Ecuador made the mistake of assuming that it wouldn't affect them much because of warmer climate and younger, healthier population. It's endemic there and other places in Latin America already (ex: Brazil)- very small testing capacity. You'll start to hear more reports that like. It's going to be bad, really, really bad. Poorer, densely populated in the cities/countries with very minimal health infrastructure.

Colombia acted EARLY, saving many lives. Gracias a Dios!

FluMom wrote: I really have lost faith in any reporting coming out of some countries, like Ecuador.

I've been looking at daily figures for all countries reporting, and it seemed that Ecuador was one of the best in reporting for South America (Chile also seems to be doing a good job).  Places like Venezuela and Haiti are very very suspiciously low when compared to neighbouring countries.   

Flumom, you are probably right about Ecuador figures being low, which shows just how mind-blowing this disaster is.  

My country is advanced, first world, rich; but they don't count all coronavirus deaths.  Care homes - not counted, untested - not counted  (and don't get me on the subject of how few tests we have!)  co-morbidities - often uncounted.

If we are that duplicitous, careless, hopeless how bad is the miscount in a third world country?  That is before you even add the duplicity.  

I would not be surprised if the real count was DOUBLE the official one.

That would not surprise me either.

What is the actual CFR was under 1%?? What if we (and other nations) committed national economic suicide on a FALSE ASSUMPTION? THERE IS NO COMPLETE DATA PICTURE. Why?? Why no serological random national sampling?? Why not even random sampling for COVID-19???

Cannot shake the pics of overloaded hospitals.. ..That's real

Or the Ppe shortage...............................................That's real

The reefer trucks filling up with bodies...................That's real

The overwhelmed healthcare systems, morgues being filled to capacity, and other societies like, China, Italy, Spain, France, and dozens more.........Those are real too

This is the real deal, not a hoax.....the real hope as said above is one or more of the following: the antibody tests, and acceptance of the "new" normal, humanity will march foreword from this with hopefully just a bruise.

I think it's a forgone conclusion that with out mitigation (economic damage) there will be far more deaths......even as it is, we still may see images of bodys being left out on the street in advanced societies.........after 100 years of lightening speed progress, mankind was not psychologically ready for this.

That being said, we have the strength to move past it....the question is how long will it take.