Tracking the next pandemic: Avian Flu Talk |
Exponential Growth - Stop and Read Immediately |
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Technophobe
Assistant Admin Joined: January 16 2014 Location: Scotland Status: Offline Points: 88450 |
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No arguments there. STFH! |
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How do you tell if a politician is lying?
His lips or pen are moving. |
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Newbie1A
Adviser Group Joined: January 26 2018 Location: Alberta Status: Offline Points: 11180 |
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Dr Fauci figures a 100,000 Americans dead (says 100-200 in article) |
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If it's to be - it's up to me!
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FluMom
Adviser Group Valued Member Since 2006 Joined: February 03 2020 Location: Colorado Status: Offline Points: 14695 |
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Yes what did you all expect? This is a NOVEL VIRUS! A lot of people are going to die especially the ones who don't stay home! |
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EdwinSm,
Moderator Joined: April 03 2013 Status: Offline Points: 24065 |
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Yes stay at home....Today's morning radio news had an item about how "the week without work" (but with full pay) has backfired in Russia. Instead of staying at home masses of people who no longer had to work spent the time traveling to visit friends. BTW Putin is another of the world leaders who have down played this pandemic. |
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Technophobe
Assistant Admin Joined: January 16 2014 Location: Scotland Status: Offline Points: 88450 |
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Idiocy is not confined to one state or country or leader. It is universal. |
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How do you tell if a politician is lying?
His lips or pen are moving. |
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CRS, DrPH
Expert Level Adviser Joined: January 20 2014 Location: Arizona Status: Offline Points: 26660 |
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I think Dr. Fauci is being conservative, to avoid creating panic. On AFT, I made the prediction that the WuHan virus was likely a corona-virus, like SARS, back on Jan 8, 2020. After a few weeks, I took pen to paper and came up with this calculation, assuming that no control steps would be taken (sent by email to the FBI doctors I work with): "US population is presently about 331 million souls. if about 1/3 of us are at highest risk for serious illness, the denominator is 100 million. CFR may be 2%, so 2 million might die from this one in the US." Shortly thereafter, our British colleagues came out with their model, predicting the following: "In total, in an unmitigated epidemic, we would predict approximately 510,000 deaths in GB and 2.2 million in the US, not accounting for the potential negative effects of health systems being overwhelmed on mortality." The key term here is "unmitigated epidemic," i.e. no social distancing, no stay-at-home etc. At least in the USA, we are attempting to do some of this. However, it is spotty....only a handful of states have aggressively instituted mandatory stay-at-home policies, while others are very lax. So, we are not practicing mitigation in a sense that will snuff this out. Therefore, I am going to go on record and say that we will face 200,000 mortalities in the USA AT MINIMUM, and likely 500,000 with potentially 1 million, depending upon how quickly our politicians take control of this situation. This does NOT include collateral mortalities from patients who die because of lack of hospital space for heart attacks, childbirth, stroke, auto accidents etc. |
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CRS, DrPH
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WitchMisspelled
Adviser Group Joined: January 20 2020 Status: Offline Points: 17170 |
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My understanding is Fauci explained that in the best case scenario there would be 100,000 deaths. The worst case will be 200,000 or better. |
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interwebber
V.I.P. Member Joined: March 21 2020 Location: Idaho Status: Offline Points: 355 |
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Over the last 2 days I have been getting more and more optimistic. It seems like number of new cases and new deaths starting to level off in many places. Yes lots of cases, deaths, and health systems overloaded all over the place...so we all need to STFH to do our part. But important things like 5-min tests are starting to come on line here in the US. And growing evidence (Yes it's anecdotal.. but this is a Pandemic) that anti-malarial drugs given early enough before lung damage occurs in at-risk population has me thinking this nasty bug gets knocked down quickly as long as drug production ramps up with a flattened curve. I am hopeful deaths equivalent to a really bad flu season and everything back to normal in a few months. Not letting down my guard. We are SIP and will continue to do so. Just wanted to share a different perspective. Here is a link to an article today FDA approval last night and 30 million doses donated to the US national stockpile (enough to treat about 3 million people I think) and other manufacturers out there ramping up production. Stay safe. https://news.yahoo.com/fda-emergency-authorizes-malaria-drugs-115945660.html |
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If you're not part of the solution, you're part of the problem!
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BabyCat
V.I.P. Member Joined: January 26 2020 Status: Offline Points: 15175 |
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Glad to be able to report some good news. I was significantly wrong. Yes! I projected 1,000,000 ex-China worldwide by 3/30. Well, we won't hit that today, as now at 702,911. Not going to forecast a revision. The US projections are also significantly lower than projected. We will not reach 1,000,000 by 4/2, and hopefully, never. The world is bending the curve. Let's hope it continues, and we can avoid large successive waves. Oh, and Brazil's Bolsonaro is a reckless demagogue. |
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Technophobe
Assistant Admin Joined: January 16 2014 Location: Scotland Status: Offline Points: 88450 |
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Bolsanaro is a public menace, health is but one part of it. |
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How do you tell if a politician is lying?
His lips or pen are moving. |
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BabyCat
V.I.P. Member Joined: January 26 2020 Status: Offline Points: 15175 |
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I am now concerned the flattening in the curve is due to testing capacity limitations. |
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BabyCat
V.I.P. Member Joined: January 26 2020 Status: Offline Points: 15175 |
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THIS. India. Know the scale of the tragedy this portends. https://mobile.twitter.com/PhdParody/status/1244775812345274370 |
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WitchMisspelled
Adviser Group Joined: January 20 2020 Status: Offline Points: 17170 |
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Me too! Especially in states where they're not getting test kits. Like Michigan. |
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BabyCat
V.I.P. Member Joined: January 26 2020 Status: Offline Points: 15175 |
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OMG. It's possible the virus is accelerating faster than we can test, isolate, and treat: 50% of those tested in NY were positive: @lookner ·9,298 new cases in New York State since yesterday 5,686 new cases in New York City In part this seems to be due to more testing: 18,645 tested yesterday vs. 14K-16K on several recent days But also, % testing positive is up: 49.8% of tests were positive yesterday https://twitter.com/lookner/status/1245017501173518356 |
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WitchMisspelled
Adviser Group Joined: January 20 2020 Status: Offline Points: 17170 |
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Welcome to my world. You're next. |
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BabyCat
V.I.P. Member Joined: January 26 2020 Status: Offline Points: 15175 |
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To control the pandemic, Breining said, you’d want to test enough people that the percent of positive tests falls to about 10%. At Northwell, this “positivity rate” can approach 50% on some days. “That positivity rate tells us we’re only testing a fifth of the patients we’d want to be testing, ideally, if we had unlimited testing available,” Breining said. |
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BabyCat
V.I.P. Member Joined: January 26 2020 Status: Offline Points: 15175 |
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I'm actually a bit frightened by that comment. Next to be hit like NYC? |
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Thorne!
Adviser Group Joined: February 07 2020 Status: Offline Points: 2695 |
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Yep, me too. |
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WitchMisspelled
Adviser Group Joined: January 20 2020 Status: Offline Points: 17170 |
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Sorry BabyCat and anyone else for this ominous comment. It was a bit of a throw-away comment made in one of my darker moments. I don't know what state you're in, but from what I've been reading those states that did a lot of testing and ordered stay at home earlier rather than later have a better chance at avoiding the debacle happening in NYC than those that didn't. My city didn't have a chance because I believe it was already spreading before the first case was found when we finally got working test kits. I remember it was something like two days after the first case was found in Westchester that it was announced authorities could no longer do tracing. Mind-boggling. But it makes me feel less paranoid that I started stay at home/social distancing back in early February. |
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BabyCat
V.I.P. Member Joined: January 26 2020 Status: Offline Points: 15175 |
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Ah, yes. I was warning people around me like a lunatic since late January..I was told by my employer to "stop freaking everyone out". I was right. Everything I said was right. I doubt they'll reopen their doors anytime soon. There's a story there to be told some day. Warnings on deaf ears. For a few weeks I just looked at everything like it was the last time I would see it normally again. As far as testing limitations go, it appears we have a recent testing capacity probi: https://mobile.twitter.com/Noahpinion/status/1245108325512925184 |
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WitchMisspelled
Adviser Group Joined: January 20 2020 Status: Offline Points: 17170 |
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We've had a testing problem since day one. This will be our downfall. This will create situations that just shouldn't exist. Every clinic and hospital should have test kits. Testing centers should not be closing down because there aren't enough test kits. There just isn't enough to go around. |
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BabyCat
V.I.P. Member Joined: January 26 2020 Status: Offline Points: 15175 |
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More evidence of current peak in testing: https://mobile.twitter.com/biancoresearch/status/1245130248317997059 I think that will change shortly, but still, danger is confirmations lagging behind spread |
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WitchMisspelled
Adviser Group Joined: January 20 2020 Status: Offline Points: 17170 |
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And as a side note to your comment of not seeing things normally again. I am convinced there will be a new normal after we're on the other side of this. Society and life-styles will change. Some will deal with change and others will not. As much as I know there are those here who think this is a "powder puff" (and they're entitled to their opinion), things will change in ways we can't even imagine yet. There I go again. Sorry. |
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BabyCat
V.I.P. Member Joined: January 26 2020 Status: Offline Points: 15175 |
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WM. I respect your courage to speak your thoughts freely - I can tell you are a true New Yawker! I know you don't mean ill, and not the unnecessary death and suffering of anyone, and I think your thought is more metaphorical (generational ideas). It's the duty of each generation to take the reins and make it their own, evaluating the wisdom and preciousness of what they've inherited. It's a sacred trust. For example, America's republic...if we can keep it. For me, I too odten hesitate. "Minnesota Nice" coupled with "Finnish silence" makes me want to scream from the mountaintop, but then...not, and later wish I did. |
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BabyCat
V.I.P. Member Joined: January 26 2020 Status: Offline Points: 15175 |
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Alll the IC needed to do was follow this forum!!! We nailed it from the beginning. CIA, I'm available. Experience in China, superior research and analysis abilities. ;) New US Intelligence Report Accuses China Of Deliberately Lying About Coronavirus FiguresThe report, which was leaked to the US press by senior-level officials, revealed that the US believes China deliberately tried to conceal the extent of the outbreak, suggesting that Beijing's decision to lift its lockdown is probably premature, which is why they're pivoting toward blaming foreigners for these new "asymptomatic" cases that have supposedly been known to the government all along, they just simply 'forgot' to count them. |
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EdwinSm,
Moderator Joined: April 03 2013 Status: Offline Points: 24065 |
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Other governments, like the one who issues my passport but which denies me the vote, only count case that die in a hospital - if they die elsewhere they do not officially have Corvid-19. ps. If I was given the vote I would not vote for Boris (sorry Tech!) |
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BabyCat
V.I.P. Member Joined: January 26 2020 Status: Offline Points: 15175 |
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Very good point. Italy I know is doing that. Why? That's what China did. |
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Technophobe
Assistant Admin Joined: January 16 2014 Location: Scotland Status: Offline Points: 88450 |
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We here on AFT have been ahead of the curve all along, Kitten - and you have been illustrating it beautifully. Thank You! The information (despite China's best efforts) has been out there for all to see, if they bothered to look like we did. Surely governments must have the equivalent of what we do in their analysts and I would think they had more information to start with. I think each level in the various chains of command have downplayed the risks, so the further up the chain the message rose the weaker it became. Denial is a powerful force, so is fear of redundancy. I don't just mean America, I mean everywhere! Heigh ho. Many of our readership are SIP. Considering the doubling rate, we probably saved quite a few. |
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How do you tell if a politician is lying?
His lips or pen are moving. |
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Technophobe
Assistant Admin Joined: January 16 2014 Location: Scotland Status: Offline Points: 88450 |
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How do you tell if a politician is lying?
His lips or pen are moving. |
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BabyCat
V.I.P. Member Joined: January 26 2020 Status: Offline Points: 15175 |
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Today is April 3rd, and a sad milestone has been reached over 1,000,000 worldwide ex-China infection (1,017,133 at the moment). Looking back over this thread, I wanted to see how my projections fared. ***Posted February 6th***
Conclusions: The international projection was BANG ON from 60 days out (it's Day 57, and projected 1,146,880 on Day 60 - will probably hit that well, tomorrow or the next day (Day 58 or 59). The US estimate was a a severe underestimate (today have 277,999) due to a severe lack of testing and surveillance and tracing. The greatest US policy failure EVER. My confidence in President Trump to react early in the right ways was misplaced. |
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BabyCat
V.I.P. Member Joined: January 26 2020 Status: Offline Points: 15175 |
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***Posted Feb. 8**** Actual: 1,000,000 by April 3rd (55 days)
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KiwiMum
Chief Moderator Joined: May 29 2013 Status: Offline Points: 29680 |
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It's pretty grim however you look at it. Did you see the reports coming out of Ecuador? The bodies lying on the streets? |
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Those who got it wrong, for whatever reason, may feel defensive and retrench into a position that doesn’t accord with the facts.
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BabyCat
V.I.P. Member Joined: January 26 2020 Status: Offline Points: 15175 |
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Is anyone else a little spooked by that? |
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BabyCat
V.I.P. Member Joined: January 26 2020 Status: Offline Points: 15175 |
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Yes, saw them immediately as posted on Twitter (Guayaquil - yo hablo espanol tambien). It's bad, extremely underreported, and surging, likely to spread beyond. Ecuador made the mistake of assuming that it wouldn't affect them much because of warmer climate and younger, healthier population. It's endemic there and other places in Latin America already (ex: Brazil)- very small testing capacity. You'll start to hear more reports that like. It's going to be bad, really, really bad. Poorer, densely populated in the cities/countries with very minimal health infrastructure. Colombia acted EARLY, saving many lives. Gracias a Dios! |
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FluMom
Adviser Group Valued Member Since 2006 Joined: February 03 2020 Location: Colorado Status: Offline Points: 14695 |
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I really have lost faith in any reporting coming out of some countries, like Ecuador. I do not think they can keep up with how many dead much less getting people into hospitals for help and testing is probably not even being done. We think we have it bad some of these countries in South America, Central America, Africa, India are going to be a huge mess with so many deaths they will lose count. This is so sad but what can any of us do but sit and watch it all happen. |
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EdwinSm,
Moderator Joined: April 03 2013 Status: Offline Points: 24065 |
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I've been looking at daily figures for all countries reporting, and it seemed that Ecuador was one of the best in reporting for South America (Chile also seems to be doing a good job). Places like Venezuela and Haiti are very very suspiciously low when compared to neighbouring countries. Flumom, you are probably right about Ecuador figures being low, which shows just how mind-blowing this disaster is. |
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FluMom
Adviser Group Valued Member Since 2006 Joined: February 03 2020 Location: Colorado Status: Offline Points: 14695 |
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Oh, you are correct Edwin...I think a lot of countries are behind in reporting and not because they are dishonest...they just can't keep up with all they have to do. |
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Technophobe
Assistant Admin Joined: January 16 2014 Location: Scotland Status: Offline Points: 88450 |
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My country is advanced, first world, rich; but they don't count all coronavirus deaths. Care homes - not counted, untested - not counted (and don't get me on the subject of how few tests we have!) co-morbidities - often uncounted. If we are that duplicitous, careless, hopeless how bad is the miscount in a third world country? That is before you even add the duplicity. I would not be surprised if the real count was DOUBLE the official one. |
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How do you tell if a politician is lying?
His lips or pen are moving. |
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KiwiMum
Chief Moderator Joined: May 29 2013 Status: Offline Points: 29680 |
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Both Boris and Dr John Campbell said that the real number was 10 or 20 times the official one. |
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Those who got it wrong, for whatever reason, may feel defensive and retrench into a position that doesn’t accord with the facts.
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Technophobe
Assistant Admin Joined: January 16 2014 Location: Scotland Status: Offline Points: 88450 |
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That would not surprise me either. |
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How do you tell if a politician is lying?
His lips or pen are moving. |
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BabyCat
V.I.P. Member Joined: January 26 2020 Status: Offline Points: 15175 |
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So does Dr. Mina, a leading testing authority in the US. Definitely over 2 million, probably 4 million: https://twitter.com/michaelmina_lab/status/1246338140232695814 |
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BabyCat
V.I.P. Member Joined: January 26 2020 Status: Offline Points: 15175 |
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What is the actual CFR was under 1%?? What if we (and other nations) committed national economic suicide on a FALSE ASSUMPTION? THERE IS NO COMPLETE DATA PICTURE. Why?? Why no serological random national sampling?? Why not even random sampling for COVID-19??? |
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EdwinSm,
Moderator Joined: April 03 2013 Status: Offline Points: 24065 |
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+1 Yesterday I was thinking of the same issue, but from a slightly different perspective. With under testing the national figures are low - when the dust settles (and cases drop) it would be then harder for politicians to justify having committed economic suicide. I think that while there might be short term benefit to play down numbers as cases rise (to try to curtail panic), in the long term it would be to the political advantage of leaders to report the higher figures to show that the hard actions were justifiable. |
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pheasant
Admin Group Joined: May 20 2006 Location: Florida Status: Offline Points: 9851 |
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Cannot shake the pics of overloaded hospitals.. ..That's real Or the Ppe shortage...............................................That's real The reefer trucks filling up with bodies...................That's real The overwhelmed healthcare systems, morgues being filled to capacity, and other societies like, China, Italy, Spain, France, and dozens more.........Those are real too This is the real deal, not a hoax.....the real hope as said above is one or more of the following: the antibody tests, and acceptance of the "new" normal, humanity will march foreword from this with hopefully just a bruise. I think it's a forgone conclusion that with out mitigation (economic damage) there will be far more deaths......even as it is, we still may see images of bodys being left out on the street in advanced societies.........after 100 years of lightening speed progress, mankind was not psychologically ready for this. That being said, we have the strength to move past it....the question is how long will it take. |
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The only thing we have to fear, is fear itself......FDR
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g0ldl10n
Valued Member Joined: March 26 2020 Location: Ohio Status: Offline Points: 60 |
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Pheasant, that is a true - but - are all the shortages of PPE because we actually used that many - or - is it because certain countries stocked up and hoarded the global supply at the beginning.. something similar to the toilet paper shortage us coming folk are facing (and other supplies such as hand soap)? Because YOU KNOW relative to the population as a whole there is a very few number of people sitting on so much toilet paper that they aren't going to get to for a year or longer. Also, according to all the experts you're more likely to contract this virus sooner or later, so these mitigation efforts are just slowing down there inevitable. It is also slowing down the "herd immunity". And because of things such as that I don't think we can really know if we'd be in a different position we are now without actually going through this without these mitigation efforts. I mean, if the death rate is well below 1%, (and possibly comparable to the Flu) if the experts estimates on how many people have or are infected are even close to reality you have to ask yourself, are more people going to end up being hurt far into the future by economic suicide than they would have otherwise if we didn't take those actions? It's a pretty horrible position to be in but economists are predicting the impacts of this are going up make the 2007-2009 recession look like a picnic. We're talking Great Depression unemployment numbers (possibly worse). How many small/medium sized businesses that are responsible for the majority of employment never going to recover? Everyone knows poorer people die MUCH more often from preventable diseases and acute illnesses, and we know this is going to have long lasting effects on people's financial situations, so I don't even think we can even begin calculate/comprehend how many people end up dying from these preventable ailments in future that will reach many years into it. Guess just another way to look at this situation. |
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