Exponential Growth - Stop and Read Immediately

BabyCat wrote: But this is simply, hands down, the best website for tracking data. It's a live Google spreadsheet, and has over 120 volunteers.  https://covid2019.azurewebsites.net/ US is at 122 now, other sites can't keep up.

Is anyone else able to access this site?  I just tried and it just comes up as a blank white screen?

Newbie1A wrote: BabyCat wrote: But this is simply, hands down, the best website for tracking data. It's a live Google spreadsheet, and has over 120 volunteers.  https://covid2019.azurewebsites.net/ US is at 122 now, other sites can't keep up.  Is anyone else able to access this site?  I just tried and it just comes up as a blank white screen?

It took about 10 seconds on my computer, but loaded eventually. 

https://twitter.com/Secret_Beijing/status/1235770514607570955 

Thought this was interesting...and disturbing.

Reminds me of the zombie roaches TedTalk... 

https://www.ted.com/talks/ed_yong_zombie_roaches_and_other_parasite_tales/transcript?language=en 

We are, after all, just organisms, too. But with consciousness, of even our own mortality. 

That is why I choose faith. 

As of this moment, 20,860 confirmed infections ex-China. Noted for posterity.  Since 2/13, daily increases have been increasing steadily, with just a couple exceptions. 

245 US, noted for posterity. 

Perhaps we do not reach 1,000 by Sunday/Monday as I thought (because of limited testing reported across the country), but I think very likely by early next week, maybe Tuesday/Wednesday. 

Note, by 3/16, this will be very country-specific, as to control measures. Those countries with higher totals at the moment (S. Korean, Iran, Italy, Germany France, Japan, Spain, US will make the largest portions of the totals, but many other countries will experience exponentially rising totals as well.  I

As I projected weeks ago, there will be breakout totals around this time frame. I'll re-post those projections. 

Now with the cruise ship passengers from the Grand Princess being traced and undoubtedly tested if symptomatic, I think the US will reach 1,000 confirmed by Monday, despite the weekend (public health emergency/hospitals/labs now more in place). I believe it's going to be an ugly weekend and beginning to next week, with a steady drum beat of news. Case, case, cluster, cluster, boom, boom. 

Revised world projections. 100,000 by 3/15 or sooner. 

Here's this guy's projection. Predicts 60,000 by March 15.  I think 60,000 by March 12, 100,000 by March 15 (subject to testing limits). He's got better looking models, that's for sure. But we'll see who was closer, though. 

US cases rose 46% today, fyi. 

From the sheer number of cases, their geographical distribution, it's quite clear the US has MULTIPLE areas of community transmission across the country, and it cannot likely be contained to a single area. (Example: An FBI agent in a SF satellite office was just confirmed.)  https://coronavirus.1point3acres.com/en 

What does this mean? It means that if the US wants to avoid disaster, we need to start drastically shutting down as much social contact as possible. NOW.

This is extremely, extremely bad. Damn the Chinese CCP. Damn them to hell. 

Prepare for more. Maybe we'll see 1,000 by Monday noon.  Certainly if the current and former Grand Princess pax start being tested and counted, that would likely lead to 500 or more alone. 

BabyCat wrote: What does this mean? It means that if the US wants to avoid disaster, we need to start drastically shutting down as much social contact as possible. NOW. This is extremely, extremely bad. Damn the Chinese CCP. Damn them to hell.

Well the CCP took action too late - but at least they did.  More then I can say for Trump or Trudeau (or most countries politicians!), and I can't see Trudeau at least taking any serious action even when too late... CCP screwed up, but they bought time for the rest of us to prepare (for which I personally am grateful) at a huge cost to the average Chinese citizen...too bad our governments threw this gift of time away - that mistake will likely be a huge cost to the average Can/Amer etc

Getting closer and close to my 1,000 by Monday evening call:

Revised US Projections. Notice how they are increasing with each iteration. 

Jake Glanville from Pandemic show on Netflix
 Jacob Glanville on Twitter
 
 Comparing two estimates: #California 03/07/20: about 100 #COVID19 cases confirmed. Estimate #1: Assuming 20% of cases are severe enough to seek treatment, and 25% of such cases were actually tested at hospitals, I estimate 2000 infected people in the state.
 
 Estimate #2: given #COVID19 R0=2.5, a 6 day infection cycle, spreading beginning around same time as DNA estimated Seattle cases of 7-weeks ago, we would have 669 cases from a single individual, and 1043 if we had one new spreader arrive per week until Chinese air travel ceased.
 
 If you have 2 new spreaders arrive per week for those first three weeks, the estimates are comparable. Multiple issues with both estimates, but they arrive within a half log of same answer. Thoughts?
w hy model this? To form projections. Given 1000 infected now, we will have 2500 by end of week, 6250 by the 20th, 15,625 by the 26th, and 39,062 infected by April 1st. #California has 430 hospitals but with 20% of #COVID19 patients needing care, we may run out of ICU in April

Wow BC how long do you think it will take to get to southern Italy?  Is that something a smart person like you can extrapolate or is that looking into a crystal ball sort of thing?

Compare Northern Italy at this point to Jan. 30 Wuhan, seven days AFTER shutdown. 

Fortunately, China took extreme measures and bought us time. 

The curve is already baked in for 100,000 plus in Italy, given the minimum 1-2 week infection to symptom to confirmation lag. Expect at least 5,000 or more deaths if mitigation measures are not increase radically even further. 

The piecemeal approach won't work. They're constantly behind the virus. 

BabyCat 

What's your thoughts about UK.  Would really appreciate it.  A few of us here considering SIP but dont want to leave it too late.

Thanks in advance.

Hz

The infectious disease experts I've been following on Twitter are LIT UP about the lack of testing for surveillance and target mitigation. 

We're screwed - we need to shut everything down. Now. Business as usual won't work. 

Italy and the US seem to think they can match an exponential problem with linear, graduated measures. NO. 

Hazel, I'll look at the UK as soon I can. I have been a little puzzled at the lower numbers given the initial starting points; however, they're starting to rise as well. This virus takes time to circulate before it starts showing up with more serious cases. 

Ok, Hazelpad, I took a look at the UK. Basically, it's following the same recent pattern of most other countries. Although the UK has tested more than most (27,000), the recent exponential rise suggests that many of the infections are being missed by overly narrow test criteria (sound familiar??). Lots of reports that if you have symptoms but haven't had contact with confirmed case or traveled to identified areas/countries to "consider other diagnoses". It's a mistake, of course, one that will prove to be so very, very shortly. Consider the following:

Fortunately, there are "only" three deaths at the moment, so the policy, up to now, seems to have been fairly successful. However, the underlying situation has undoubtedly changed, likely due to imported Italian (and to a lesser extent, Iranian) cases. I suspect that there is ongoing transmission that is not being picked up by the narrow testing criteria. I expect UK's numbers to continue to rise exponentially, and at about 273 discovered cases about a few days behind the US, and probably about the same status as France and Germany, even though they are showing four times the confirmed cases. Why? Testing aggressiveness, is my assumption. 

One thing to be on the lookout for, is a sudden rise in deaths, which would point to very large numbers of infected and unrecognized clusters and hotspots.

It seems that the UK will release PPE stocks held for a pandemic 

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/coronavirus-nhs-hospitals-masks-nurses-doctors-a9385131.html

Raymond Acquah

@mondrayac

·

1h

As of 9am on 8 March 2020, 23,513 people have been tested in the UK, of which 23,240 were confirmed negative and 273 were confirmed as positive. Two patients who tested positive for COVID-19 have died. #coronavirusuk #coronavirus #joysms #joynews #joy997fm

1

Tom Andrews

@WeVotedToLeave

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1h

Replying to 

@WeVotedToLeave

 

@stuff_so

 and 

@natasha367b

I had all the symptoms of COVID-19 but couldn't get tested as no relevant travel and no known contact with a confirmed case, I believe I was a case of community transmission from an unknown source. UK NHS use a flowchart which just says "consider other diagnoses" in such cases

Kim, sounds familiar, but not positive. Could you post it? I think it's the same thing about the guy who says he just went through the same thing in China, and recommends the US Shut.It.Down. Not. Kidding

I've said similarly for days now. :)

Babycat thanks so much for the detailed reply and taking time to put that post together.  My pHd and background is all in cellular immunology, but did work in virology for a while.

Anything molecular you need to know then I can return favour.  If I dont know I can find out.

Again thanks 

Hz x

ME163.  They're not prepping because they trust their elected leaders.  Even though those that think things through know those elected leaders are lying through their eye-teeth.  Or they're depending on their version of God.  

Sorry if that sounds bitter.  I admit that it is.  You can't fix stupid.  But even more stupid is wasted lives.