Exponential Growth - Stop and Read Immediately

Had a co worker tell me he was sick of hearing about the Coronavirus BS.    I really cannot fathom anyone not wanting to be prepared.  Whats the worse that happens.  You have a stockpile of food.  

Different places different people. In my very rural deep red part of the country people have been quietly but persistently stocking up to the point where our local grocery has had to begin rationing basic supplies and necessities. 

Not everyone can be judged solely based on voting habits. There are smart and dumb people everywhere on this globe. 

Well I'm still not optimistic about the next two to three months it is a reason for some hope.the question remains will other countries attacked those kinds of measure is? Eventually they will have 2 as Italy found out. So will the United States and other countries they are just going to have to power down and shut down until it's slow down enough.

Please please watch from 11.16 to 18.40.  That's just about 7 mins and it will make it all clear.  Please watch

For those struggling with what exponential  growth means and why it's such a warning please watch below.  It explains it quite well.  Especially the analogy  of the drop of water in a football stadium growing exponentially  and when the spectator in the top tier finally realised they need to escape it may be to late.

Anyway it helped me understand. 

https://youtu.be/Rb94GXQVEKQ

Please please watch from 11.16 to 18.40.  That's just about 7 mins and it will make it all clear.  Please watch 

Worldwide ex-China log chart starting to bend. Let's hope it continue...

I think more people are starting to respond, stay home...airport traffic in Europe and NA down significantly...a little panic is not necessarily a bad thing.

People making rational decision in the absence of poor government planning and inaction can help. 

Hazelpad wrote: Please please watch from 11.16 to 18.40.  That's just about 7 mins and it will make it all clear.  Please watch For those struggling with what exponential  growth means and why it's such a warning please watch below.  It explains it quite well.  Especially the analogy  of the drop of water in a football stadium growing exponentially  and when the spectator in the top tier finally realised they need to escape it may be to late. Anyway it helped me understand.  https://youtu.be/Rb94GXQVEKQ Please please watch from 11.16 to 18.40.  That's just about 7 mins and it will make it all clear.  Please watch

YES YES YES, brilliant video. It is absolutely a MUST WATCH.  

I emailed it to my Dad yesterday (he didn't watch it) so told him about the stadium part this morning. Even telling him vs the visual it had a huge impact.

Also posted it on Facebook begging people to watch it, and.. no one has.  I will try again, because it is SO important...   

There are a few nice mantras out there.  But that one is top of the list.  I think it saved my sanity.

Great video...I will be following him too!

And less anyone question if they are SIP...he is!

Also the part where we will have herd immunity is when 3/4 of the world's population ...THE WORLD"S mind you...has been infected and become immune...won't happen he said, this spring or this fall, but maybe in TWO YEARS. (barring a vaccine of course)

Case, Case, case, cluster cluster BOOM!

Hello friends, things are moving fast, and trying to stay safe.  It is now very foreseeable mitigation events coming shortly in the Bay Area (and Santa Clara County specifically). Haven't had time for any charts, but https://twitter.com/jodigraphics15  has great ones. 

First, good news, as I discussed previously China's success with initial first wave containment, has been, up to now, fairly well duplicated in highly structured Asian societies that can scale up testing, institute large scale social distancing with public cooperation (and mandatory masks!!), etc. with Singapore, S. Korea, Hong Kong and the epi curve has definitely flattened for now...

However, as we all know, Italy is only now doing the same, finally, and the first signs of curve flattening are emerging there. Right now, France, Germany, US ,etc needs to do the same, but unfortunately for many, political paralysis, ineptitude, identification of problem will thwart that for a while. But it can, and will work if we actually do it. 

As I initially projected by today, there are now over 1000 US cases (1005 and climbing by the minute). This was foreseeable as now wider testing is underway. Seattle is now becoming a ghost town. It will take a few more days for the US public to recognize the severity of this event, and the spread within other areas. Testing will be a key indicator, of course.

The curve at the ex-China worldwide level (current count 37,822) is also starting to flatten slightly (mostly due to S. Korea's progress) and I hope that continues. The whole point of this thread, and the efforts of many others across the internet, on Twitter, Facebook, has been to warn of the dangers on uncontained exponential spread. Fortunately, the warnings are finally being heeded. I hope the damage is limited. 

What this does mean, is that increasing regional containment/shutdowns, then perhaps national level, are likely inevitable for France, Germany, the US, and others.  Some will get there later, some sooner.

We knew this was a possibility. Take care!

At this point, in the US, in my opinion, a partial shutdown is inevitable for the West coast, and large parts of the Eastern Seaboard, and a few other places. It will, and must happen sooner or later, or we'll face grave consequences, including health care system overrun, extremely high death rates, etc. Political denial is still very strong, though. 

This has been posted elsewhere, but so important, I also wanted to post it here:

RT 

@MarkJHandley

: Here’s the coronavirus data, overlayed with the dates offset by the amounts shown.  One of these countries is not like the rest.  Everyone else will be Italy in 9-14 days time. 

An important projection for the US.

I think we'll hit 10,000 by 3/18. Still many reports of testing kit shortages. Governors in many states saying they can't get enough kits, need more. Another example, officials can't test other residents or workers yet surrounding California's newest nursing home death in Sacramento because of testing limitations:

The US is in for a world of shock and hurt in the next two weeks with the spread of the virus. We're looking at a cascading disaster along the lines of Wuhan Jan. 23. At that time, when the decision was made, China had 830 infections, 26 deaths). The US has more than both of those now. Still no strong mitigation measures. Sure, the Ro was probably higher in China because of pop. density, crowding, but still US cities will be hit very, very hard. 

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-51230011

The US still haven't responded with strong, necessary mitigation measures. They're linear responses to an exponential problem and will waste valuable time, and cause more deaths. The virus has been circulating in the US since mid-January. FACT. But we still are not testing thoroughly!! It's absolutely insane.

Instead, Congress is spending their time on "financial stimulus" measures and possible cruise/airline/oil industry bailouts. Where the hell is the PPE?? Where is the coordination from FEMA/HHS/CDC on disaster contingency planning for hospitals?? 

The next two weeks are going to be extraordinarily bad in the US. I would not be surprised if the NYSE and other exchanges were halted/closed or selling banned..the administration cares more about $$$, than people. This much is crystal clear right now. Look at ACTIONS, not WORDS. 

Spain's confirmations are rising rapidly. Now 2,124 (49 deaths), overtakes Germany, France, US. As expected, where one country levels off (S. Korea, others fill in the gap).

Responding to a comment by a member who said some of the exponential projections didn't happen, such as with China or S. Korea. That is true. Because they locked down to reduce Ro. They are unbounded, uncontained projections. They are warnings, not inevitabilities. It is important to try to see the difference.

Yaneer Bar-Yam

@yaneerbaryam

 · 1h

In just Ohio alone, estimates of 100,000 infections or more.

https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/487329-ohio-health-official-estimates-100000-people-in-state-have-coronavirus 

This is a DISASTER. 

I estimate currently 50,000 - 250,000 Americans currently infected. 

We do NOT have the testing capacity. 

I hope I am wrong. Pray that I am. 

But the truth is the US and the rest of the world need to change behavior immediately. 

Time for some review..

On March 1st, I said:

I've modified this chart. It projects worldwide (ex-China) totals for March. 

Possible: 

100,000 by March 12-20

1,000,000 by March 23-April 7

BabyCat wrote: This, though, was one of my first projections of international infections. It's held up pretty well, I would say. Predicted 1,000 within a few days, 2,000 the day of, and we're on track for 3,000 by the 27th. It also projected significant escape within 45-60 days from the 8th, roughly March 24-April 8th.

Initially posted February 8...

53,171 reported infections so far today ( https://covid2019.azurewebsites.net/ )

Predicted 60,000 worldwide ex-China by March 24. I think it's safe to say we'll reach that before then. 

Predicted 1,000,000 worldwide ex-China by April 8. I think it's also safe to we'll reach that before then. 

Hey Babycat, 

Your hard work, and dedication is so much appreciated, Thank You!

Now....go get some rest, we need you here fresh and alert....don't burn out, take a break.

Incredible synopsis.

I'll go watch a movie now..  and listen to "It's the End of the World As We Know It, and I Feel Fine.."

'80s reference..