Tracking the next pandemic: Avian Flu Talk |
Exponential Growth - Stop and Read Immediately |
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ksc
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Glupa
Adviser Group Long term valued member Joined: January 28 2020 Location: SW Virginia Status: Offline Points: 1030 |
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Wasn’t that REM? |
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BabyCat
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By that same measure, assuming CFR is 3%...with 41 current US deaths, and considering 4 week infection to death timeline...that would mean about 41 x 100/3 = 1367 US infections around 4 weeks ago, so....assuming a 4 day doubling time from recent confirmed data, we'd have: 2/12 1,367 2/16 2,734 2/20 5,468 2/24 10,936 2/28 21,872 3/3 43,744 3/7 87,488 3/11 174,976 3/15 349,952 Which aligns pretty well with my 50k-250k previous estimate.. If assuming a doubling time of 5 days: 2/12 1,367 2/17 2,734 2/22 5,468 2/27 10,936 3/3 21,872 3/3 43,744 3/8 87,488 3/13 174,976 Logical, no? |
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BabyCat
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Yeah, my best estimate for current US infections today is 150,000... Given that,with 4.5 doubling, we'll have: 3/12 150,000 3/16 and a half 300,000 3/21 600,000 (HERE IS WHERE SOCIAL DISTANCING EFFORTS MAY BECOME APPARENT) 3/25 and a half: 1.2 MILLION 3/30 2.4 MILLION Americans infected --- It looks like 600,000 US infected already ensured. At a minimum, I foresee 600,000 x.01 (1% due to likely undercount/undertesting) deaths = 6,000 deaths in next five weeks, only partial v. more complete shutdowns will lead to more deaths, probably see "only" 24,000 deaths within two months if we're lucky imo |
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KiwiMum
Chief Moderator Joined: May 29 2013 Status: Offline Points: 29680 |
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Perhaps the Ohio deaths are reported under other headings. People die all the time and particularly if they are elderly. Perhaps cause of death is organ failure, or respiratory failure. I once sat with an elderly relative as she died of extreme old age and the doctor, who told me she had died from old age, had to put heart failure on the death certificate as technically that was the last part of her that stopped working. There may be old people who die at home of respiratory failure or undiagnosed pneumonia (which was always called the old man's friend because it was a painless way to die) and when they've been found it's been put down as some form of organ failure. It's not like an autopsy is done on every one. |
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Those who got it wrong, for whatever reason, may feel defensive and retrench into a position that doesn’t accord with the facts.
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BabyCat
V.I.P. Member Joined: January 26 2020 Status: Offline Points: 15175 |
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Great point. In fact, that was exactly the experience in the Life Care (?) nursing home facility in WA. They had residents who died of "viral pneumonia" who were later found to be positive once they re-ran the samples once the cluster was discovered a week or two later. But if so, probably at the most, in the low dozens statewide or I'd think they'd find the cluster. |
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BabyCat
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US Numbers as of later evening 3/12... |
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BabyCat
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Here's the logic behind Ohio's 100K figure...basically, community spread they believe implies minimum 1% general pop.: 100,000 cases: estimate by Ohio state health director. “We know now, just fact of community spread, says that at least 1%, at very least, of our population is carrying this virus in Ohio today. We have 11.7 mil people. So math is over 100,000." #COVID19 |
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BabyCat
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BabyCat
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ksc
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It might be better to adjust that graph based on population to show a better representation. Or maybe use individual states such as CA, MA, NY, etc. |
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WitchMisspelled
Adviser Group Joined: January 20 2020 Status: Offline Points: 17170 |
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Closely following the daily upticks in NY, I think BabyCat's chart is pretty accurate. Cases are rising exponentially and too fast for my comfort in the last week. That pink line set my neck hairs standing. |
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ksc
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Singapore has a population of 6 mil., US 300+ mil. So if you divided the US cases (2000) by 50, you'd come up with about 40 cases per 6 mil of population. The pink line would be on the bottom. If you plotted NY on that graph, it would have an almost identical line as Singapore, but lower on the graph once again. |
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WitchMisspelled
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FYI The City of New York has a population of 8.3 million alone. The entire state has 19.4 million. |
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ksc
Adviser Group Joined: February 09 2020 Status: Offline Points: 10995 |
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I used 18 mil. for NY. so 3 times as large as Singapore. Simply divide NY case number by 3 and that would give you a comparable number based on population. |
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BabyCat
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Presidential emergency declaration under Stafford Act by 3pm EST by Pres. Trump. As predicted, by Tuesday. I thought it would be sooner, but said Tuesday to be safe. :) |
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WitchMisspelled
Adviser Group Joined: January 20 2020 Status: Offline Points: 17170 |
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That's my nap time. Darn! I'll miss it. I guess I'll just have to watch the round-up... |
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BabyCat
V.I.P. Member Joined: January 26 2020 Status: Offline Points: 15175 |
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Today is March 16, currently 98,657 worldwide ex-China reported infections, will reach 100K in moments... Pretty close to projections - would have been by 12th-15th if S. Korea hadn't done such a great job in containment. Nevertheless, my projection weeks ago that we'd reach 100k between 12th and 20th was spot on (16th). Us at 4,289. We'll see when we reach 10,000. I had projected by 3/18 (end of day). I think we'll be pretty close, much of rise captured by increased testing capacity. May have time for more projections, may not. It's a dice roll now. Watch Italy. If they crest soon, a very good sign. Watch UK and their 'herd immunity' experiment. Could be a disaster, maybe not because many people will choose to socially distance themselves despite the lack of compulsion from government. |
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Technophobe
Assistant Admin Joined: January 16 2014 Location: Scotland Status: Offline Points: 88450 |
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It might work, but I doubt it. Very glad I'm a prepper. VERY GLAD! |
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How do you tell if a politician is lying?
His lips or pen are moving. |
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BabyCat
V.I.P. Member Joined: January 26 2020 Status: Offline Points: 15175 |
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100,498 reported worldwide ex-China infections. A milestone. Next stop: 1,000,000. Will project if I get time, but I seriously believe that with concerted efforts from many countries we can flatten and lengthen the curve. The Swedish and British approach to let it burn out in the young actually has some insane plausibility, but it's a risk that is just very, very high. Someone said that ID call "herd immunity" at the end "pack of survivors". You're on your own, if that's still not clear. It's the people that are ahead of the curve, leading the leaders. |
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BeachMama
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BabyCat, I have been thinking about you. I would have PM’d you, but can’t figure out how to do it on here (I guess I should be named “TechnoInept! LOL). I’m glad you’re well. Thanks again for all of your hard work and sounding the alarm. |
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BabyCat
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You're so sweet (as are most here...except AI ;) I'm fine - made a bold decision, maybe I'll share it someday. |
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Newbie1A
Adviser Group Joined: January 26 2018 Location: Alberta Status: Offline Points: 11180 |
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You headed out of the city to a safer place far away?!?!? |
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If it's to be - it's up to me!
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BabyCat
V.I.P. Member Joined: January 26 2020 Status: Offline Points: 15175 |
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Hmm...well, some say I have an uncanny knack for seeing the future. Read this Santa Clara County SIP Order. It's unlike anything I've ever seen. Necessary, for sure, but just, wow. Gee, someone who could have seen when that was coming could have made sure to prep ahead for every contingency.. ;). (looks back to prior posts on timing of mandatory SIP orders)... |
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BabyCat
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US on track for 100k by 3/27 (+/2). However, while I expect social distancing measures to start having an effect, the lack of testing, and testing ramp up will balance that for a while, so the 100K projection looks pretty solid at this point. Remember Wuhan, then Hubei a day later, then rest of China a day after that, was locked down at about 800 cases and China leveled off around 80,000 up to now. The 1 million mark is an open question when and whether it will be reached. Depends on each and every one of us. It is these kinds of projections why the US govt started updating its guidelines...15 days they said..3/31...About 250K reported infections would entail 15-20% severity, 8%-10% hospitalization (20-25,000 hospitalizations, 3-4% deaths (7-10,000 deaths), and the health care system would start to become overwhelmed already...THAT is why more restrictive, and mandatory orders for many more areas of the US are coming. Prepare for them. |
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BabyCat
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PS. UK changed their mind on herd immunity. Right decision, but lost valuable time. The price of the delay will be borne the oldest and weakest, unfortunately. P.P.S. Most of middle America outside major coastal cities that I've seen on the road to my undisclosed location this past week is acting like business as usual. Not a good sign. But really light traffic through some Midwest major cities during rush hour though so I imagine behavior is changing by the moment. No one laughs at my mask, goggles, gloves anymore. PS. Did you know it's pretty easy to avoid close (less than 10 feet) contact with any people or community surfaces if you figured out ahead of time the bathroom situation (port-a-potties with privacy tent at rest stops works fine), sleep in a tent/vehicle, have enough food/water (MREs/5 gallon bottles), and gas up at empty filling stations? It was little less dramatic than the Mad Max scenario I had in my mind, though, haha. Here's worldwide ex-China projections: |
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BabyCat
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Projecting 1 Million ex-China worldwide by 3/29 (+/- 1)..however, I expect social distancing will have noticeable effect, so perhaps will be delayed a few days or around 4/3...problem is when one place seems to have squashed CV-19 for a while, others are rising to take over the growth... |
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BeachMama
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Newbie1A
Adviser Group Joined: January 26 2018 Location: Alberta Status: Offline Points: 11180 |
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Glad you got out of city in time, countryside is safer - at least till the 'golden hoards' get there. |
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If it's to be - it's up to me!
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CRS, DrPH
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I live in southern AZ, south of Tucson and we are taking it quite seriously in these parts. However, some states may not, depending upon their politics: Seventy-one percent of Republican primary voters believe the virus has been exaggerated for political reasons, and only a bare majority of Republicans were convinced the virus is definitely not a hoax, last week’s Economist/YouGov poll found |
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CRS, DrPH
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CRS, DrPH
Expert Level Adviser Joined: January 20 2014 Location: Arizona Status: Offline Points: 26660 |
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Good work, BC! These are my own numbers, which I shared with MDs for the FBI, nobody laughed at me: US population is presently about 331 million souls. if about 1/3 of us are at highest risk for serious illness, the numerator is 100 million. CFR (case fatality rate) may be 2%, so 2 million might die from this one in the US. .....I just saw this in the New York Times: Sweeping new federal recommendations announced on Monday for Americans to sharply limit their activities appeared to draw on a dire scientific report warning that, without action by the government and individuals to slow the spread of coronavirus and suppress new cases, 2.2 million people in the United States could die. |
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CRS, DrPH
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BabyCat
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Thanks CRS. I'm convinced we need to scare the s%$t out of people to change their behaviors and avoid those death totals. I'd rather be called an alarmist and have people take precautions and then have nothing dire happen, than the alternative..but if nothing happens, I will say - see, it worked. |
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BabyCat
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well, here's a real expert's analysis...I still think it's a bit too low at that time... https://twitter.com/AndrewALover w/ & CPAC as sentinel event, we estimate --> A total of 54,100 SARS-CoV-2 infections (80% CI 5,600 to 125,300) have occurred in the US through Mar 12. Consistent w/est. from Preprint https://works.bepress.com/andrew-lover/28/… #COVID19 #Surveillance |
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BabyCat
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By the way, this projection was fairly dead on accurate, very late on the 15th we hit 100K |
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BabyCat
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Guess who was closer? |
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BabyCat
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Actual US number on 3/15: 3782 |
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BabyCat
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From Feb 8th. The US is 10.5 days behind Italy. |
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BabyCat
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Posted Feb. 26, 20 days ago. Actual numbers higher: Ex: 3/14 75,100 3/15 101,187 3/17 117,236 (day not over yet) We're still in trouble. I've changed my mind. Unless the entire world drastically powers down and enacts strong control measures, we're playing a losing game. I think we may need to power down for more than several months to prevent these projections. |
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FluMom
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India, India, India! If it hits there it will be like a wild fire. They have contained it so far but how long can that last! |
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BabyCat
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New projections: |
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BabyCat
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You are assuming it hasn't already done so. How do you know it is contained? It could be in the clusters stages for all we know. I seriously doubt India's surveillance ability to distinguish between the myriad of other health issues. While India has decent doctors (certainly many come to the US to practice), India does have 1.3 billion people, most of them dirt poor, with 60% defecating outdoors. But, one thing that is India's favor is that there isn't a lot of Chinese tourists/trade/business ties..most Chinese seriously dislike India and Indians, almost as much as the Japanese (about 20% of Chinese state TV is anti-Japanese WWII communist war drama). Living in China, I learned this. It was very, very hard for Indians to work in China, they were openly discriminated against, and I saw it first hand with two different employers. Nor does India have strong trade/travel ties with Italy. These two things led to much of the current spread. But, yeah, it would be bad! I think it's just a matter of time until we hear of more cases there, though. As for slowing the spread, you think it would be possible to "socially distance" in India?? Ha! Fat chance. |
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BabyCat
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Ok, here's a new chart, and a new idea... I think we'll see various phases in the coming month or two..as countries go into lockdown, we'll see cases level off, then start up again elsewhere, level off, start up again, etc. Dr. Osterholm believes we'll see a resurgence of cases in China as the controls are lifted. Then we'll see the hammer come back down again.. |
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BabyCat
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BabyCat
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The most massive storm the world has seen in a century is upon us, an event that will probably have an impact greater than a world war. The world's risk for serious destabilization, geopolitical security risk is rising exponentially by the day. This is an event that will reverberate for decades. This is the end of life as we know it for years. Too negative? I don't think enough.
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BabyCat
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Reposted from March 6, originally posted Feb 8. Predicted/Actual: Predicted 60,000 by March 20th, actual: March 13th: 63,600 Predicted 84,000 by March 15th, Actual March 15th: 88,733. Pretty accurate. What I am trying to impress upon everyone (preaching to the choir here, I'm sure) is STAY HOME. SHUT DOWN. TELL ANYONE WHO HAS EARS TO LISTEN. |
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