Exponential Growth - Stop and Read Immediately

Wasn’t that REM?

Yeah, my best estimate for current US infections today is 150,000...

Given that,with 4.5 doubling, we'll have:

3/12 150,000

3/16 and a half 300,000

3/21 600,000 (HERE IS WHERE SOCIAL DISTANCING EFFORTS MAY BECOME APPARENT)

3/25 and a half: 1.2 MILLION

3/30 2.4  MILLION Americans infected

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It looks like 600,000 US infected already ensured. At a minimum, I foresee 600,000 x.01 (1% due to likely undercount/undertesting) deaths = 6,000 deaths in next five weeks, only partial v. more complete shutdowns will lead to more deaths, probably see "only" 24,000 deaths within two months if we're lucky imo

Great point. In fact, that was exactly the experience in the Life Care (?) nursing home facility in WA. They had residents who died of "viral pneumonia" who were later found to be positive once they re-ran the samples once the cluster was discovered a week or two later. But if so, probably at the most, in the low dozens statewide or I'd think they'd find the cluster. 

Here's the logic behind Ohio's 100K figure...basically, community spread they believe implies minimum 1% general pop.:

100,000 cases

: estimate by Ohio state health director. “We know now, just fact of community spread, says that at least 1%, at very least, of our population is carrying this virus in Ohio today. We have 11.7 mil people. So math is over 100,000." #COVID19

Closely following the daily upticks in NY, I think BabyCat's chart is pretty accurate.  Cases are rising exponentially and too fast for my comfort in the last week.   That pink line set my neck hairs standing.  

FYI The City of New York has a population of 8.3 million alone.  The entire state has 19.4 million.  

I'm not sure I'm following you kcs.  But then charts and graphing was never my strong suit.  

Presidential emergency declaration under Stafford Act by 3pm EST by Pres. Trump.

As predicted, by Tuesday. I thought it would be sooner, but said Tuesday to be safe. :)

Today is March 16, currently 98,657 worldwide ex-China reported infections, will reach 100K in moments...

Pretty close to projections - would have been by 12th-15th if S. Korea hadn't done such a great job in containment. Nevertheless, my projection weeks ago that we'd reach 100k between 12th and 20th was spot on (16th). 

Us at 4,289.  We'll see when we reach 10,000. I had projected by 3/18 (end of day). I think we'll be pretty close, much of rise captured by increased testing capacity. 

May have time for more projections, may not. 

It's a dice roll now. Watch Italy. If they crest soon, a very good sign. Watch UK and their 'herd immunity' experiment. Could be a disaster, maybe not because many people will choose to socially distance themselves despite the lack of compulsion from government. 

100,498 reported worldwide ex-China infections. A milestone. 

Next stop: 1,000,000. Will project if I get time, but I seriously believe that with concerted efforts from many countries we can flatten and lengthen the curve.

The Swedish and British approach to let it burn out in the young actually has some insane plausibility, but it's a risk that is just very, very high. Someone said that ID call "herd immunity" at the end "pack of survivors".

You're on your own, if that's still not clear. It's the people that are ahead of the curve, leading the leaders. 

You're so sweet (as are most here...except AI ;) I'm fine - made a bold decision, maybe I'll share it someday. 

Hmm...well, some say I have an uncanny knack for seeing the future. 

Read this Santa Clara County SIP Order. It's unlike anything I've ever seen. Necessary, for sure, but just, wow.  

https://www.sccgov.org/sites/phd/DiseaseInformation/novel-coronavirus/Pages/order-health-officer-031620.aspx

Gee, someone who could have seen when that was coming could have made sure to prep ahead for every contingency.. ;). (looks back to prior posts on timing of mandatory SIP orders)...

PS. UK changed their mind on herd immunity. Right decision, but lost valuable time. The price of the delay will be borne the oldest and weakest, unfortunately. 

P.P.S. Most of middle America outside major coastal cities that I've seen on the road to my undisclosed location this past week is acting like business as usual. Not a good sign. But really light traffic through some Midwest major cities during rush hour though so I imagine behavior is changing by the moment. No one laughs at my mask, goggles, gloves anymore.  PS. Did you know it's pretty easy to avoid close (less than 10 feet) contact with any people or community surfaces if you figured out ahead of time the bathroom situation (port-a-potties with privacy tent at rest stops works fine), sleep in a tent/vehicle, have enough food/water (MREs/5 gallon bottles), and gas up at empty filling stations? It was little less dramatic than the  Mad Max scenario I had in my mind, though, haha. 

Here's worldwide ex-China projections:

BabyCat wrote: You're so sweet (as are most here...except AI ;) I'm fine - made a bold decision, maybe I'll share it someday.

Ooh, I can’t wait to hear all about it!!! 

Newbie1A wrote: BabyCat wrote:   P.P.S. Most of middle America outside major coastal cities that I've seen on the road to my undisclosed location this past week is acting like business as usual. Not a good sign.  Glad you got out of city in time, countryside is safer - at least till the 'golden hoards' get there.

I live in southern AZ, south of Tucson and we are taking it quite seriously in these parts.  However, some states may not, depending upon their politics:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/03/16/this-crisis-looks-worse-than-911-2008-collapse-will-we-finally-fix-our-politics/

Seventy-one percent of Republican primary voters believe the virus has been exaggerated for political reasons, and only a bare majority of Republicans were convinced the virus is definitely not a hoax, last week’s Economist/YouGov poll found

Thanks CRS. I'm convinced we need to scare the s%$t out of people to change their behaviors and avoid those death totals. 

I'd rather be called an alarmist and have people take precautions and then have nothing dire happen, than the alternative..but if nothing happens, I will say - see, it worked. 

BabyCat wrote: Note, by 3/16, this will be very country-specific, as to control measures. Those countries with higher totals at the moment (S. Korean, Iran, Italy, Germany France, Japan, Spain, US will make the largest portions of the totals, but many other countries will experience exponentially rising totals as well.  I As I projected weeks ago, there will be breakout totals around this time frame. I'll re-post those projections.

By the way, this projection was fairly dead on accurate, very late on the 15th we hit 100K

BabyCat wrote: Revised US projections (I keep re-posting because the projections keep significantly increasing). This will be like South Korea's numbers within two weeks. Unfortunately, ours won't increase as slowly, because we are NOT testing and we are NOT containing as well as they have. The pop in S. Korea immediately cooperated, stayed home. The US? Ha. Cases are going to EXPLODE.  There. I said it. I'm done sugar-coating it. This is going to be a DISASTER.

Actual US number on 3/15: 3782

BabyCat wrote: I don't think these medium and long-term outlooks are likely, they are just interesting I think to consider. The catastrophic, unmitigated, uncontained, theoretical case. Societies would shut down to prevent this. Far more sophisticating modeling would be necessary to project something like this, with so many variables, why supercomputers do this kind of thing.

Posted Feb. 26, 20 days ago. Actual numbers higher:

Ex: 3/14 75,100

3/15 101,187

3/17 117,236 (day not over yet)

We're still in trouble. 

I've changed my mind. Unless the entire world drastically powers down and enacts strong control measures, we're playing a losing game. 

I think we may need to power down for more than several months to prevent these projections. 

New projections:

Ok, here's a new chart, and a new idea...

I think we'll see various phases in the coming month or two..as countries go into lockdown, we'll see cases level off, then start up again elsewhere, level off, start up again, etc. Dr. Osterholm believes we'll see a resurgence of cases in China as the controls are lifted. Then we'll see the hammer come back down again..

The most massive storm the world has seen in a century is upon us, an event that will probably have an impact greater than a world war. The world's risk for serious destabilization, geopolitical security risk is rising exponentially by the day. This is an event that will reverberate for decades. This is the end of life as we know it for years. Too negative? I don't think enough.