Exponential Growth - Stop and Read Immediately

The biggest issue I see though, is the long period (up to 14 days) from infection to symptoms. Owing to this, I’m not so sure we can relax. By the end of February, I think we’ll have a much better grasp on the trajectory of this thing.

Read a long article of an interview of a Wuhan doctor on the front lines, says average is about 3 weeks to die, from confirmation/hospital admission to death.
Week 1, usually mild. Week 2, some (20-25%) get serious, if don't get help right away, death, crapshoot of whether they live or die. Week 3, either better, or dead.

Here's a new chart from Twitter, explaining how China lies.
China's data neatly fits the quadratic x2=1 . It just doesn't happen so predictably in real life. Watch the different in international infections rates going forward.
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Polar Bear Diaries
@DiariesPolar
"All epidemics – before they are brought under control – take the form of a green line, an exponential function of some sort. It is impossible for them to take the form of a blue line, a quadratic formula of some sort"
#ChinaLies
#ChinaVirus
#Coronavirus
#CoronavirusOutbreak
https://mobile.twitter.com/DiariesPolar/status/1227055621100298240

A few days ago (7th), posted this:

"International cases rising 18% day. I did a quick breakdown projection, where we might be in 30, 60, 90 days at that rate.

Day 1 326 (today)
2 385
3 454
4 536
5 632
6 746
7 880"

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Today (11th, Day 4 of prediction) at 517 at this moment. Predicted 536. 18% still a bit too high. Probably around 15% increase every day, I hope it stays in this sub-exponential (somewhat linear) form. (However, epidemics typically begin in exponential until a certain point) Do the math from there. Even if stays sub-exponential, may get ugly, real soon. Maybe the rest of world dodges a bullet when Spring comes. Time will tell.

Today 517
2 595
3 684
4 786
5 904
6 1040
7 1,196
8 1,375
9 1,582
10 1,819
11 2,092
12 2,405
13 2,766
14 3,182
15 3,658
16 4,207
17 4,838
18 5,564
19 6,498
20 7,358
21 8,461

A caveat, too, is that most of the new international infections are from the Japan cruise liner. However, I believe the high infection confirmations are because of confirmed exposure followed by aggressive testing. Other countries are not as aggressively testing such a defined sample set. In other words, they're not looking hard enough. Thus, significant undercounting or underreporting at the moment. The lull in the international storm. But, it's coming, I am convinced, and will unleash hell. Best to be prepared to battle now.

On the 8th, I also used a graph to predict 1000 cases in 8 days (by the 16th). Over halfway there. (517). 5 more days to go. We'll see if it gets there, and which model wins out. I hope both models are incorrect. I really, really, really, really hope not. For the world's sake. But the epidemiology and the math are cold, hard facts we must accept. Right now, the rest of the world, except of China, HK, maybe Singapore, and a few other places are not battening down the hatches. I think they should.

I think FAR more aggressive contact tracing and testing needs to happen NOW with all those who have had an international travel history from Wuhan or Hubei province recently (estimates about 60,000). and their close contacts. I think we'd find a lot more. I think it's a worldwide imperative.

Flumom, sorry I didn't see your post.

The graphs mean that it could get bad, soon, or not so bad, and take longer.

I really don't know which. I think the world's health authorities are working very hard.

I think it's clear it's not going to be stopped anytime soon. I think it could be delayed for a few more months, and if we get lucky, we dodge a bullet and can be aggressive and limit its spread to just localized breakouts.

It COULD sweep the globe by the end of the year, just like many experts are predicting IF things go bad and international containment efforts fail in the short term.

I also won't post charts and graphs based on Chinese data as often, as I feel it's not reliable. The CDC says they are definitely "undercounted" (but I hear the word "manipulated")

I'll begin to focus more on international numbers, as they are more reliable, and at least are what they purport to be. I'm not trusting any numbers out of China.

Ditto<<<<

Thanks for all your work Baby Cat.

I think you are wise to switch your focus more to the "rest of the world". However, I was wondering if at this stage at least you should just exclude mainland China, as both Hong Kong and Taiwan/Taipei seem to be providing more acceptable statistics. [I know too little to be able to judge Macau's data].

I know the above is not politically correct (ie WHO lumps all four units into one line in their status reports), but it might give better data.

Thanks for the kind encouragement. I'm just a regular person trying to draw my own conclusions, do my own thinking - something I think is good for everyone to do, rather than rely on the (mis)information all around the globe are fed. It's not that hard when you try. In a new situation, even the so-called experts sometimes are just guessing. The more information you have, the better you can decide for yourself. I'm sure there are millions of people in Hubei province that wish they were told the truth and would have protected themselves.

The world is in a false lull, I fear.

Though I’m certain I’m not the first or only person to have this aha moment I thought I’d post it anyway because it may interest some.

I was born and raised in the US and even though I’ve done some interesting traveling I still and likely always will think from a US point of view. More broadly, I think from a Northern Hemisphere point of view; economically, socially, politically, and this was my aha moment, meteorologically.

The Covid-10 virus doesn’t do well in warm weather. Great! I’ve just got to get to May. The virus will start to go away in April. Even better! I can celebrate a virus free birthday.
But summer for me is winter for the folks in the Southern Hemisphere. What’s great for me isn’t so great for the folks in the distant southern part of this planet.

I know that we partly predict our winter flu preparations based on what happens to those whose winters coincide with our summer. Won’t it also be true for this virus? And if so, isn’t it concerning that many of the countries that will be experiencing winter later this year are developing nations with lesser equipped health care systems?

I hope I’m way off base here but worry I’m not.

This is one of the strangest charts. It suggests severe data misreporting. reality is probably 5-10x higher, in my opinion.

China is still lying - they are not counting those who are confirmed via testing but do NOT have any clinical diagnosis. Thus, missing, if the virus is infecting, but only mildly or little symptoms in about 80%, then the numbers would be, by logic at least 4x higher than confirmatory and symptomatic.

pheasant wrote: Just for curiosity, what would the graph and r0 look like if the spike( extra cases) were evened out?

On the graph below you can envision a line from about 6th February to the latest figures. Around the 6th February is when the upward curve of cases started to flatten out. [This is my not very scientific eye-balling the figures answer]. So may be around that time they stopped being able to test all the suspected cases?????




ps. sorry, I don't know how to scale this.

The numbers never matched up with the exponential curve. I still don't think the numbers are anywhere near the true numbers. Neil fergusons models show the true path of the virus.

ME163 wrote: The numbers never matched up with the exponential curve. I still don't think the numbers are anywhere near the true numbers. Neil fergusons models show the true path of the virus.

Yes, Neil has it right I think. The confirmed cases represent just the identified cases, in Western countries he estimates it's catching about 20-25%, 1 out of every 4 or 5. That leaves a lot of potential cases spreading disease at this very moment.

Right now is the time for vigilance. It's right now, before cases get confirmed is the time of increased danger, because people are not wearing masks, or taking other precautions. I'm sure people in Wuhan would have reacted differently had they known how widespread it was. If you are in a remote rural area in the US, you're likely fine. But, I, myself, would certainly wear a mask in and around airports with high historical travel from Wuhan/Hubei province, Uber/Lyft drivers and hotels, for example.

In two weeks, the numbers could go 1 -> 3 -> 9 -> 27 -> 81 -> 241, and by then, maybe only 20% are feeling any symptoms, and of those, a handful long enough and serious enough to go to the doctor, and maybe 1 or 2 of those starts getting attention about the possibility of coronavirus.

Apparently, I'm not the only one who thinks China's official infection and death counts are "severely underreported" Ask about any expert, they'll say the same thing.

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"Update (1015ET): Following last night's debacle over China reporting, Fox News' Edward Lawrence reports that administration sources say they believe China is under reporting the number of coronavirus cases by at least 100,000 in China.




Administration sources say they believe China is under reporting the number of #coronavirus cases by at least 100,000 in China. Also sources say the administration believes China is "severely" under reporting the number of deaths from the virus.

— Edward Lawrence (@EdwardLawrence) February 13, 2020"

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Here's my view of things:

Bad news from China CDC. They say CFR 4.45% for men, and Ro of 3.77.

My conclusion: Kick prepping into high gear!! Authorities are now seeking to only delay pandemic, minimize outbreaks as much as possible. As I stated weeks ago, this is a monster. The monster is out of the cage.

If even 1% CFR, and spreads widely, it will be a disaster unlike we've seen in 100 years since the 1917-18 Influenza epidemic. We are running out of time.
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2h

Eric Feigl-Ding
@DrEricDing
·
Feb 12
I’m not certain this is the real final #COVID19 CFR. I’m concerned because we all know there’s huge numbers of underdiagnosis not tested for 🦠would lower it. And 80-90% cases not resolved yet, which could boost it upwards.
@MRC_Outbreak
says CFR likely 1%. Let’s wait for final#.
Quote Tweet

Andy Biotech
@AndyBiotech
· Feb 12
Largest study to date from China CDC of first 4021 laboratory confirmed cases w/ #2019nCoV #COVID19 from 30 provinces

R0 ~3.77 (95% CI 3.51-4.05)

Case fatality rates (CFR) ~3.06% with significant gender difference
- Male 4.45%
- Female 1.25%

https://medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.10.20021675v1

Looks to be doubling every 2.5 days

Perhaps one of us has time to plot the prediction line so for the second logarithmic chart. The slope is pretty clear. I haven't seen that anywhere else yet.

Great illustration!

I'm jealous of your abilites with data and data systems, BC.

I agree.

For a test to work, you have to actually do it. People only seem to be being tested if they display symptoms - In China sometimes not even then! - so I suspect wuflu is massively unreported/recorded.

Agreed, but taking the cruise ship(s) as an example, extensive testing of exposure leads to greater confirmations. Looking at some of the "in the weeds" transmission reports, as Dr. Neil suggests, it's only the most serious cases getting tested at this point, and it seems most of their exposures were around mid Jan. to third week in January. We're playing catch up, and the monster is winning.

On another note, this recent paper says phylogenetic diversity reveals extensive dispersal of virus and epidemic doubling time of 7 days, and bad news about CFR:

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-infectious-disease-analysis/news--wuhan-coronavirus/

Having stopped to give a clue or two to the non statistically minded.

Babycat, your statistical reasoning tallies with mine. I am using simpler models (I had to look up Baye's theorem) as I am no statistician, but I arrive at similar numbers.

One of the rules of modelling is that the more models you use the more accurate you are (or the less in-accurate).

All in all, I am in awe of your figures.

If you analyze this nice chart from @evdefender, you'll see that internationally, the world might be where China allegedly was back on Jan. 23. See how China grew from there, is the implication. That is, if you believe the Chinese numbers.