Tracking the next pandemic: Avian Flu Talk |
Updated International CFR 4.2% |
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BabyCat
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Posted: February 23 2020 at 10:56am |
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This thread will have the updated international (outside of China) CFR and severity rates. I'll try to put updates in subsequent posts, as well as update/edit this first post/title as it progresses, but if anyone else wants to update the stats regularly, please go ahead and do so. Source: https://bnonews.com/index.php/2020/02/the-latest-coronavirus-cases/ CASES DEATHS TOTAL 2,050 26 82 serious/critical CFR: 1.2% Severity Rate: 4% |
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Technophobe
Assistant Admin Joined: January 16 2014 Location: Scotland Status: Offline Points: 88450 |
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Thank you, Baby Cat.
Folks, don't swamp BabyCat's thread with thanks - HOWEVER WELL DESERVED. There is a thanks option on the top right of the post. Click that and it will tot up your thanks on BC's member profile. |
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How do you tell if a politician is lying?
His lips or pen are moving. |
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BabyCat
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FluMom
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Great information for scared moms!
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BabyCat
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2,213 27 82 serious/critical
CFR: 1.22% Severity Rate: 3.7% |
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BabyCat
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TOTAL 2,292 32 82 serious/critical
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BabyCat
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TOTAL 2,371 36 89 serious/critical
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Newbie1A
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Isn't this what Kilt was posting before? Or is this different data (different source?)? |
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If it's to be - it's up to me!
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BabyCat
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Maybe,I'll check. If it duplicative, I'll remove thread.
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BabyCat
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I can't find the recent thread. But I think that thread had total case count rather than focused on CFR and severity rate, am I missing something?
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Newbie1A
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Nope it is different - had to go hunt for it...
Feb.22 was "There are currently 77,985 confirmed cases worldwide, including 2,362 fatalities." So yes, total same - other info different. Perfect! Sorry, what happens when not 'awake enough' yet... |
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If it's to be - it's up to me!
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BabyCat
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https://twitter.com/CIDRAP/status/1232082983265472513
CIDRAP @CIDRAP Study of 72,000 COVID-19 patients finds 2.3% death rate http://ow.ly/Voeh30qkqgq #CoronavirusOutbreak #COVID19 #Wuhan -- BAD NEWS. Study of 72,000 COVID-19 patients finds 2.3% death rate Filed Under: COVID-19 Stephanie Soucheray | News Reporter | CIDRAP News | Feb 24, 2020 Share Tweet LinkedIn Email Print & PDF critically_ill_patient.jpg Critically ill patient in hospital sudok1 / iStock Researchers from China's Center for Disease Control and Prevention today describe the clinical findings on more than 72,000 COVID-19 cases reported in mainland China, which reveal a case-fatality rate (CFR) of 2.3% and suggest most cases are mild, but the disease hits the elderly the hardest. The study, published in JAMA, is the largest patient-based study on the novel coronavirus, which was first connected to seafood market in Wuhan, China, in December, and has since traversed the globe. Death rate in critically ill: 49% or higher A total of 72,314 COVID-19 cases, diagnosed through Feb 11 were used for the study. Of the 72,314 cases, 44,672 were classified as confirmed cases of COVID-19 (62%; diagnosis based on positive throat swab samples), 16,186 as suspected cases (diagnosis based on symptoms and exposures only), 10,567 as clinically diagnosed cases (from Hubei province only, diagnoses based on symptoms, including lung x-ray), and 889 as asymptomatic cases (diagnosis by positive test result but lacking typical symptoms). |
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BabyCat
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TOTAL 2,495 40 90 serious/critical
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BabyCat
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TOTAL 2,752 47 86 serious/critical
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BabyCat
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TOTAL 2,931 48 93 serious/critical
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BabyCat
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2,934 48 105 serious/critical
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BabyCat
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3,206 56 105 serious/critical
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BabyCat
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3,667 57 106 serious/critical
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BabyCat
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BabyCat
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KiminNM
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Looking at your last 2 posts, 2 new ones died, the serious/critical went down by one, so one died that was NOT previously on the serious/critical list. |
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Technophobe
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Or simultaneously a new patient joined the critical list. |
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How do you tell if a politician is lying?
His lips or pen are moving. |
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BabyCat
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BabyCat
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BabyCat
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crude CFR rising as expected with infection to death time lag, and delayed reporting (for example, two WA citizens died on Feb. 26(!) and only confirmed just now. THANKS, CDC, FOR YOUR OVERLY NARROW TESTING CRITERIA. Totals: 12,663, deaths 223 |
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BabyCat
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Some interesting trends in the data regarding CFR... South Korea, which has done over 160,000 tests, which has led to 5,766 confirmed, and they have seen "only" 35 deaths. If the CFR was as expected, with 35 deaths would expect to see 196 deaths with a 3.4% CFR, or 115 with a 2%. Think about that. That impllies a CFR of about 0.6% right now. People are assuming that many of the mild cases were missed in China and elsewhere. Maybe that's correct, and is shown by S. Korea's aggressive testing. Perhaps the 2% of 3.4% overall figures are way off at the moment. Scientists haven't had a chance to take samples of the average population, it's so new, so hard to get a handle on attack rate and prevalence in a population. They are just getting antibody testing (to confirm if previously exposed) off the ground. This might make sense of the data we are seeing in Iran, and the US. If it's only a 0.6% CFR, then we would multiply deaths by 167 to get an approximation of 1833 US infections which is about the estimate that some experts have suggested in the US, as well as to arrive at a figure of about 500,000 infected, in China, which would make a heck of a lot more sense from the actions of the government. In Iran, with 92 deaths, would imply about 15,000 infected. Maybe a LOT more people are/were infected, recovering/ed, and don't/didn't even know it! |
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BabyCat
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500 deaths out of 25,180 cases = 1.985% Climbing higher... |
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BabyCat
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Big jump in (s)CFR... 1132/38,461 |
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BabyCat
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Time to revisit. Unfortunately 8106/193204 = 4.2% . Bad news. which is exactly the same as the total including China: 11354/274171 = 4.2% If the testing of that Italian town which shows incidence in population of 50-75% aymptomatic that would mean a CFR of 1.05 - 2.1% Which is still bad, bad news. Now it's starting to make sense why entire countries are deciding to sacrifice their economies in the short term and shut down. |
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