Tracking the next pandemic: Avian Flu Talk |
BREAKING- New CA Case/1st in US of unknown origin |
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BabyCat
V.I.P. Member Joined: January 26 2020 Status: Offline Points: 15175 |
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Posted: February 26 2020 at 4:22pm |
Doug Sovern
@SovernNation · 16m This is new, from the WaPo: someone in Northern California who did not visit China and had no known contact with an infected person, has been diagnosed with #coronavirus. First such case in US. We don't know yet what city or town, or anything about the patient. #Covid_19 Quote Tweet The Washington Post @washingtonpost · 37m Breaking: First U.S coronavirus case of unknown origin confirmed in Northern California, a sign the virus may be spreading in a local area https://wapo.st/2uyoHgh |
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BabyCat
V.I.P. Member Joined: January 26 2020 Status: Offline Points: 15175 |
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Patti Reising
@pattireising · 4m NEW: @CDCgov confirms to @KCBSRadio that there is a new, confirmed case of #coronavirus in Northern California. Won't say where. Says the patient neither traveled to a foreign country... nor came into contact with a confirmed case. It's the 15th such case discovered in U-S. === Officials won't say where. Speculation on Twitter it's San Francisco, coming on the heels of their emergency declaration yesterday after a CDC briefing apparently. |
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BabyCat
V.I.P. Member Joined: January 26 2020 Status: Offline Points: 15175 |
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BAD BAD BAD news, although not unexpected, for me.
I'm in the Bay Area. Unfortunately, with family members coming and going, taking trips to SF, etc. (despite my warnings), we are susceptible for the first wave in the US, which I think the Bay Area may be Ground Zero. I hope not. It's the first wave I am wary of, like waiting for an enemy attack...you don't know where, or when, but you know it's probably coming...but life still needs to go on... |
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BabyCat
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Well, if it does erupt here, I'll try to keep everyone updated, citizen reporter style.
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BabyCat
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Possible community spread in Solano County, CA
https://twitter.com/KRON4VLiviakis/status/1232838333786509312 NBC Bay Area @nbcbayarea · 12m UPDATE: New coronavirus case in Bay Area may be first incident of person-to-person transmission in California in general public. Person lives in Solano County, but is being treated in Sacramento County. https://twitter.com/nbcbayarea |
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Albert
Admin Joined: April 24 2006 Status: Offline Points: 47746 |
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First U.S. coronavirus case of unknown origin confirmed in Northern California, CDC says
Read more here: https://www.sacbee.com/news/california/article240674471.html?fbclid=IwAR04QMsWfXAR8pU84j2vSj-YVFzQ5V8GiSjMKQHH63aCE9P_IqGtWt8kClM#storylink=cpy |
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Albert
Admin Joined: April 24 2006 Status: Offline Points: 47746 |
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Community spread in the U.S. is about to begin. Sure wish we knew more about the 14% CFR in Iran.
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FluMom
Adviser Group Valued Member Since 2006 Joined: February 03 2020 Location: Colorado Status: Offline Points: 14695 |
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Ok so what does unknown origin mean? That he got it from someone that had the virus but they did not know they had the virus? Or did he get it from thin air?
If he got it from someone who does not know they are sick then how many people are running around not knowing? This is a real problem!!! |
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jacksdad
Executive Admin Joined: September 08 2007 Location: San Diego Status: Offline Points: 47251 |
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I’m guessing it means they can’t trace it back to someone that’s tested positive. Most likely community spread, which means there are now cases we don’t know about. Good luck with containment - it’s clearly here and under the radar.
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"Buy it cheap. Stack it deep"
"Any community that fails to prepare, with the expectation that the federal government will come to the rescue, will be tragically wrong." Michael Leavitt, HHS Secretary. |
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FluMom
Adviser Group Valued Member Since 2006 Joined: February 03 2020 Location: Colorado Status: Offline Points: 14695 |
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Thanks that what I thought! Let's see how far this goes!
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EasyE
Valued Member Joined: February 25 2020 Location: Tennessee Status: Offline Points: 95 |
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Such a hard question to answer because this virus acts so different than it's predecessors.
1. We don't really know the latency or incubation period on this virus for various reasons.
2. There is speculation that the test is less than accurate, some estimates as low as 50%! 3. Most flu virus strains, including SARS have an incubation period of 2 to 7 days. Covid-19 was originally thought to be in this range, then went to 17 days, and I have read someone who put forth the possibility of up to 29 days. 4. Unlike SARS or MERS carriers can be asymptomatic and contagious, and we don't know enough to know how long that can be taking place before they become symptomatic, and probably varies based on the immune health of the individual. So potentially, one person could infect hundreds of others before they show symptoms. |
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"Will wrestle you for food"
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ksc
Adviser Group Joined: February 09 2020 Status: Offline Points: 10995 |
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https://www.davisenterprise.com/local-news/newly-diagnosed-coronavirus-patient-being-treated-at-uc-davis-medical-center/
Newly diagnosed coronavirus patient being treated at UC Davis Medical Center By Anne Ternus-Bellamy The UC Davis Medical Center is treating a patient who may be the first person in the country to have contracted the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) from community exposure. The California Department of Public Health reported Wednesday the individual is a resident of Solano County who had no known exposure to the virus through travel or close contact with a known infected individual. An email sent out Wednesday by two UC Davis officials said the patient arrived at the medical center in Sacramento last Wednesday but was only tested for the virus on Sunday despite a request made by med center officials that the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention conduct a test when the patient was admitted. “Today the CDC confirmed the patient’s test was positive,” said the email from David Lubarsky, vice-chancellor of human health services, and Brad Simmons, interim CEO of UC Davis Medical Center. “This is not the first COVID-19 patient we have treated, and because of the precautions we have had in place since this patient’s arrival, we believe there has been minimal potential for exposure here at UC Davis Medical Center,” the email said. Nevertheless, a small number of medical center employees have been asked to stay home and monitor their temperatures. Lubarsky and Simmons said the patient was transferred to UC Davis from “another Northern California hospital” on Wednesday, Feb 19. “When the patient arrived, the patient had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” the email said. “Since the patient arrived with a suspected viral infection, our care teams have been taking the proper infection prevention precautions during the patient’s stay. “Upon admission, our team asked public health officials if this case could be COVID-19. We requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, since neither Sacramento County nor (the California Department of Public Health) is doing testing for coronavirus at this time. Since the patient did not fit the existing CDC criteria for COVID-19, a test was not immediately administered,” said the email, which added that, “UC Davis Health does not control the testing process.” On Sunday, the CDC ordered COVID-19 testing of the patient and the patient was put on airborne precautions and strict contact precautions. The positive test results were announced on Wednesday. “We are proud of our health care workers who have been working to care for this patient and are committed to saving this patient’s life,” the email said. “Just as when a health care worker has a small chance of exposure to other illnesses, such as TB or pertussis, we are following standard CDC protocols for determination of exposure and surveillance. So, out of an abundance of caution, in order to assure the health and safety of our employees, we are asking a small number of employees to stay home and monitor their temperature. “We are handling this in the same way we manage other diseases that require airborne precautions and monitoring. We are in constant communication with the state health department and the CDC and Sacramento County Public Health about the optimal management of this patient and possible employee exposures,” the email said. “As we regularly handle patients with infectious diseases, we have robust infection control protocols in place to handle this patient and others with more frequently seen infectious diseases. In this case, we are dedicated to providing the best care possible for this patient and continuing to protect the health of our employees who care for them.” The CDC announced on Wednesday that a case of novel coronavirus of “unknown origin” — without a relevant travel history or exposure to another known patient — had been diagnosed in a patient in Northern California but did not indicate what city or county the case was in. In a press released issued Wednesday evening, the state Department of Public Health revealed the individual was from Solano County. “The health risk from novel coronavirus to the general public remains low at this time,” the release said. “While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate. From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80 percent do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date. California is carefully assessing the situation as it evolves.” “Keeping Californians safe and healthy is our number one priority,” said State Public Health Officer Dr. Sonia Angell. “This has been an evolving situation, which California has been monitoring and responding to since COVID-19 cases first emerged in China last year. This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California. That’s why California has been working closely with federal and local partners, including health care providers and hospitals, since the outbreak was first reported in China — and we are already responding.” This would be the first known instance of person-to-person transmission in the general public in the United States, according to Angell. Previously known instances of person-to-person transmission in the United States include one instance in Chicago, Ill., and one in San Benito County. Both cases were after close, prolonged interaction with a family member who returned from Wuhan, China, and had tested positive for COVID-19, the disease caused by novel coronavirus. As of Wednesday, including this case, California has had seven travel-related cases, one close contact case and now one community transmission. |
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AI
Adviser Group Joined: January 21 2020 Status: Offline Points: 8850 |
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There was one anomaly of the incubation period documented in which the incubation period was 34 days. https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/breaking-the-evolving-coronavirus-is-outwitting-the-world-quarantines-deemed-as-non-effective-as-incubation-period-can-be-limitless-diagnostics-also-b |
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BabyCat
V.I.P. Member Joined: January 26 2020 Status: Offline Points: 15175 |
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It gets worse. As I predicted, when you don't test, the first cases are the ones who die. Like Wuhan. Or Iran. This may be Wuhan 2.0
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BabyCat
V.I.P. Member Joined: January 26 2020 Status: Offline Points: 15175 |
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Albert, you are incorrect. Community spread already HAS begun. It began weeks ago. He was infected 3-4 weeks ago, in all likelihood, because remember it usually takes 3 weeks after symptoms to become critical.
I feel like Cassandra, a prophet, like probably a few others, that no one heeded. It's all so obvious. This virus will NOT be stopped! That was clear from watching Wuhan and its escape. |
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quietprepr
V.I.P. Member Joined: May 21 2006 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 2495 |
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If this patient showed up at UC Davis a week ago already on a ventilator...how long was he spreading it before he went to the hospital?
This is right on my doorstep and I interact with people from that area every day. QP
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"Learning is not compulsory... neither is survival." - W. Edwards Deming
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cindylouflu
V.I.P. Member Joined: February 26 2020 Location: San Diego, CA Status: Offline Points: 820 |
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Hi, new member here. I used to lurk on an older forum during H5N1 scare many years ago. FluMom handle looks familiar. I'm in San Diego not far from MCAS Miramar.
This unknown origin case scares me. Finally decided to join so I could vent it out and share news. |
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jacksdad
Executive Admin Joined: September 08 2007 Location: San Diego Status: Offline Points: 47251 |
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Welcome back. I’m just a few miles south of you
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"Buy it cheap. Stack it deep"
"Any community that fails to prepare, with the expectation that the federal government will come to the rescue, will be tragically wrong." Michael Leavitt, HHS Secretary. |
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cindylouflu
V.I.P. Member Joined: February 26 2020 Location: San Diego, CA Status: Offline Points: 820 |
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Thanks Jacksdad. That was a long time ago huh? Nice to know neighbors and the like minded from across the world can share on this forum.
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FluMom
Adviser Group Valued Member Since 2006 Joined: February 03 2020 Location: Colorado Status: Offline Points: 14695 |
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Welcome Cindylouflu....love the name!!! One of my favorite movies! If you have any questions ask away!
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jacksdad
Executive Admin Joined: September 08 2007 Location: San Diego Status: Offline Points: 47251 |
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It was a while ago. I thought for sure that H5N1 was going to be a big deal. Didn’t think I’d still be here and prepping in 2020.
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"Buy it cheap. Stack it deep"
"Any community that fails to prepare, with the expectation that the federal government will come to the rescue, will be tragically wrong." Michael Leavitt, HHS Secretary. |
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FluMom
Adviser Group Valued Member Since 2006 Joined: February 03 2020 Location: Colorado Status: Offline Points: 14695 |
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The last 5 years I have not been doing any prepping...I have plenty of freeze dry and dehydrated food in #10 cans. It was so quiet I quit doing anything now a lot of money later I have stocked up on everything. I hope I do not need any of it but I am glad I have it.
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Newbie1A
Adviser Group Joined: January 26 2018 Location: Alberta Status: Offline Points: 11180 |
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"An email sent out Wednesday by two UC Davis officials said the patient arrived at the medical center in Sacramento last Wednesday but was only tested for the virus on Sunday despite a request made by med center officials that the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention conduct a test when the patient was admitted.
“Today the CDC confirmed the patient’s test was positive,” said the email from David Lubarsky, vice-chancellor of human health services, and Brad Simmons, interim CEO of UC Davis Medical Center." So, with this virus raging in many parts of the World - the CDC took a FULL WEEK to test and get results back to the hospital handling the case, even though the hospital obviously felt that it was a good possibility he/she had it from the symptoms - thus the request for testing. A full week!!! Man if I was this persons daughter, son, parent, spouse etc - I'd be foaming at the mouth with the CDC on the receiving end...un-flippin' believable! |
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If it's to be - it's up to me!
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EdwinSm,
Moderator Joined: April 03 2013 Status: Offline Points: 24065 |
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The time line worries me. [more it is the delay in testing and then releasing info] Wednesday - arrived in hospital from another on ventilation Sunday - CDC give OK for testing. Wednesday - first release of the information. This has taken a Great Country a week to publicly respond! While this is not a cover up, it does have all the hallmarks of deliberate delay of bad news. WHY did CDC delay the testing 4-5 days? and why did the testing take another 3-4 days?
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Albert
Admin Joined: April 24 2006 Status: Offline Points: 47746 |
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We're almost seeing the beginning of community spread on all continents. That's the final definition of a pandemic.
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https://www.facebook.com/Avianflutalk
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EdwinSm,
Moderator Joined: April 03 2013 Status: Offline Points: 24065 |
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Reading more about this and Mr Trump's news conference, it seems that the news of Community Spread (or Unknown Origin) was released minutes after the end of the conference. This timing seems very suspicious to me. In this I am not blaming Mr Trump, but it seems like people around him wanted to keep the bad news until after he addressed the nation - probably so he would not look bad, and so that he could claim that "Containment was Great", and that he would be speaking the truth as to what he had been informed. I suppose we should now change that to "Containment works like a Grate" (ie it is full of holes).
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oakviolet
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I posted this on another thread but I found the story arc (so to speak) really concerning. If the CDC was this slow to react, we're in trouble.
https://www.sfgate.com/bayarea/article/coronavirus-CDC-UC-Davis-Solano-County-patient-15088045.php |
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jofg899
V.I.P. Member Joined: February 06 2020 Location: MN Status: Offline Points: 155 |
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Troubling news - but certainly not unexpected. We've all known that there is little testing taking place. Focusing only on those with recent travel also clearly missed many many potential cases based on how this spreads. And with a huge percentage of cases being mild, we know that there have probably been dozens (hundreds?) of people with "just a cold" or "a mild flu"
going about their daily lives. |
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Thorne!
Adviser Group Joined: February 07 2020 Status: Offline Points: 2695 |
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More than likely it has been circulating in North America for some time. With the largest Chinese population outside of China and next to no testing, the odds that it has not are very low. There was a model that indicated 384 cases arrived in the U.S. from Wuhan during the "great escape" prior to lockdown.
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Technophobe
Assistant Admin Joined: January 16 2014 Location: Scotland Status: Offline Points: 88450 |
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Now THAT I can believe!
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How do you tell if a politician is lying?
His lips or pen are moving. |
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AI
Adviser Group Joined: January 21 2020 Status: Offline Points: 8850 |
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Given the incubation period has been documented at up to 34 days and the fact it has asymptomatic carriers and the fact it's virtually worldwide at this point and the fact thousands of flights come in from all across the globe to the US pretty much guarantees it's already here undetected. That's a given. Now it's just a transmission chain unfolding.
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KiwiMum
Chief Moderator Joined: May 29 2013 Status: Offline Points: 29680 |
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I think you've right, it must be everywhere right now. We're testing like mad here in NZ and still no cases yet we get 2000 Chinese visitors a day here. We must already have it. I was talking to a doctor yesterday who said the same thing.
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Those who got it wrong, for whatever reason, may feel defensive and retrench into a position that doesn’t accord with the facts.
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KiminNM
V.I.P. Member Joined: January 22 2020 Location: NM Status: Offline Points: 6605 |
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We're screwed. From the New Mexico Department of Health Website.
First, from a press release: It is again important to note that there are no confirmed cases reported from New Mexico. NMDOH to date has monitored about 30 travelers returning from China, and none have developed symptoms of COVID-19." THEY HAVEN'T TESTED ANYONE, OF COURSE THERE ARE NO CONFIRMED CASES!!! "We will assess your risk of exposure and determine what level of monitoring will be recommended. We may need to check in with you daily until you have passed 14 days since leaving China, and we may ask you to limit your exposures to other people to keep from spreading an infection during this time before any symptoms appear." "The maximum incubation period for most coronaviruses, or the time from exposure to getting sick, is up to 14 days." Guess they don't read the fricking news! "The CDC has developed a test to diagnose COVID-19, and has distributed it to all public health labs in the United States. These tests still need to be validated in each state before they are ready to use, but testing is expected to be available at the NMDOH state lab in the coming weeks." Test is weeks away. Great. "The virus most likely originated from an animal at the Wuhan seafood and animal market. Other coronaviruses have been found in a variety of animals, including bats, camels, civet cats, swine, and ferrets, among others. The animal reservoir for this new virus has not been determined yet." Still not reading the news! |
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WitchMisspelled
Adviser Group Joined: January 20 2020 Status: Offline Points: 17170 |
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You get no argument from me AI. I've been saying for weeks now that it had to be circulating in the U.S.
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Technophobe
Assistant Admin Joined: January 16 2014 Location: Scotland Status: Offline Points: 88450 |
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Yep! We are.
No arguments from me either. |
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How do you tell if a politician is lying?
His lips or pen are moving. |
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Pixie
Admin Group Joined: June 05 2006 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 19668 |
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FEB. 27, 2020 4:09 PM Three UC Davis students are under 14-day isolation as one awaits test results related to the new strain of coronavirus after showing mild symptoms, officials said Thursday. The students are roommates at Kearney Hall, UC Davis Chancellor Gary S. May confirmed in a statement Thursday.i One student has been off-campus since Tuesday and has been tested for COVID-19. The other two individuals have not shown any symptoms but have been isolated since Wednesday night out of an abundance of caution. In keeping with Centers for Disease Control and Prevention guidelines, those asymptomatic individuals have not been tested for the virus. Yolo County Health Officer Dr. Ron Chapman said officials know the origin of the individual’s exposure to the virus but could not disclose that information because of patient privacy. ADVERTISEMENT Officials said no individual in Yolo County or at UC Davis has yet tested positive for the virus. County health officials said more than 70 people might be quarantined at home based on having contact with the UC Davis patient. University spokesman Steve Telliano disputed that number but refused to say whether more or fewer people were quarantined. Additionally, two students at two Los Rios Community College District campuses are in isolation after being exposed last week to an individual in Northern California who has tested positive for the coronavirus. “Both American River College and Cosumnes River College have learned that a student at each college, both who work as medical professionals, were exposed off campus to an individual who has since tested positive for coronavirus and is being treated in Sacramento County,” officials said in a statement Thursday. ADVERTISEMENT The students returned to campus after the exposure, but officials at Sacramento County Public Health do not believe members of the campus are at risk. The individuals have been instructed to self-quarantine for 14 days. At a news conference earlier Thursday, Gov. Gavin Newsom said 33 individuals have tested positive for the coronavirus in California. The majority of those were quarantined travelers on the Diamond Princess cruise ship that was docked off Japan. https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-02-27/coronavirus-isolation-students-at-uc-davis-sacramento-community-colleges |
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Little House
V.I.P. Member Joined: February 13 2020 Location: Ohio Status: Offline Points: 1910 |
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I think that the US is taking a page from the H1N1 playbook. Do no (or as little as possible) testing until the virus is widespread in the country. Then they can say, “See it is widespread and not as bad as you thought it would be. Everything is fine. It is just a bad cold.” I hope that they are right, or things could get really bad while they wait. (From the story Pixie posted, it sounds like it might be a college professor who is hospitalized with the virus. Scary.) |
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