PA Resident on life support in Japan

https://www.pennlive.com/news/2020/02/pa-native-on-life-support-with-coronavirus-in-japan-report.html

Let’s do that math again.  705 people infected; 4 dead.  Divide 4 by 705 and you get 0.56%. This is a far cry from 4%.  Still 5 times worse than seasonal flu, but less than one percent. 

Divide 6 by 705 and you get 0.85%.  8 times worse than the seasonal flu.

Divide 705 by 3011 (the number of people on the ship who were tested) and you get 23%. 

For some more interesting numbers, lets divide 40 (the number of critical plus the number who died) and divide it by 705.  You get 5.6%  This is the number of people who were infected and needed to be in the hospital.

These numbers don’t sound so bad, but let’s do some more math.  If 23% of 1000 people get sick that is 230 people infected.  5.6% of 230 is more than 12.  That means 12 people out of every thousand would need to be in the hospital.  Here in the states, we have 4 hospital beds for every 1000 people. 

But, on the other hand, the Diamond princess was a confined area.  Maybe we won’t have so many infected.  The Diamond princess had a lot of older people on it.  Maybe not so many will need to be hospitalized.  Maybe it won’t be so bad... (Read my sarcasm and wishful thinking into that last sentence.)

Interesting.  I thought that all of the infected were taken off the ship to Japanese hospitals.  The number of deaths is increasing, so they must be counting those who are dying in Japanese hospitals.  But you are right in that I have no idea of whether or not those who have been infected after leaving the ship were counted, and if those who die in other countries are counted.

You are right that it is almost impossible to get accurate numbers.  In the end, the only numbers that will matter are the ones that directly affect each person and their family.

Thank you!

That brings the total infected to 26%.

The CFR is 0.8%

The number not given is the number of serious cases, but if we use the 40 number reported in other places the number of people needing hospital care is 5.2 percent.

Put these numbers together and for every 1000 people you have more than 13 people who need to be hospitalized.  (Remember the US has 4 hospital beds for every 1000 people.  Some areas a bit more, some areas a bit less.) 

It is not the deaths that scare me, it is the lack of medical care that increases deaths...  I should research surge capacity.  I don’t have any idea how fast hospitals could ramp up to deal with larger numbers.

No problem, can’t tell you how many times that has happened to me.