Tracking the next pandemic: Avian Flu Talk |
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FluMom
Adviser Group Valued Member Since 2006 Joined: February 03 2020 Location: Colorado Status: Offline Points: 14695 |
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Posted: March 21 2020 at 4:22pm |
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OK so this virus started in China they have about 3200 deaths and the U.S. is looking at a possible 1 million to 2 million dead. How does that work? |
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Usk
V.I.P. Member Joined: January 26 2020 Location: Virginia Status: Offline Points: 7305 |
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The Chinese are clearly lying about how many died |
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FluMom
Adviser Group Valued Member Since 2006 Joined: February 03 2020 Location: Colorado Status: Offline Points: 14695 |
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Yes, I understand they lied so the only real numbers we can count on is Italy. We need to use there numbers to extrapolate what is going on here...not that I am smart enough to do any of that but let's face it we need to know using only Italy! |
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pheasant
Admin Group Joined: May 20 2006 Location: Florida Status: Offline Points: 9851 |
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I'm sorry Flumom, this is all i have for you, And I'm too tired to be eloquent right now: So I'll be concise, The Italian numbers are real and startling. We should be way below them, but even if we are 1/3 of the Italian numbers we are above 1918 both in CFR, and Ro ...........nuff said.....extrapolate what you must, but this is a big deal....... The show stopper is, and only is, if we can bend the curve with social distancing at this point...considering the lack of preparation. Sadly the only other hope is if somehow, in someway the CFR, and Ro are different in America for some unknown reason........that's a long shot. Im hoping someone can show how the synopsis above is flawed. |
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The only thing we have to fear, is fear itself......FDR
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CRS, DrPH
Expert Level Adviser Joined: January 20 2014 Location: Arizona Status: Offline Points: 26660 |
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The Chinese did some things to stomp out the virus that we, as a liberal society, tend not to do. They made it illegal to show your face on the street, and you could have been shot on sight for doing that. That simple. Here, we have idiot kids dancing around on the beaches, getting drunk & laid, laughing about Corona Virus and getting infected. The 2 million is a prediction based on the model, if you want to read it, it is at this link: On Page 7 of 20, it says: The key is "unmitigated." In total, in an unmitigated epidemic, we would predict approximately 510,000 deaths in GB and 2.2 million in the US, not accounting for the potential negative effects of health systems being overwhelmed on mortality. The key is "unmitigated." With ongoing isolation orders in CA, IL, NY, CT etc., we are pursuing mitigation steps, so the 2 M dead is not quite as likely. HOWEVER, this pandemic will NOT be completely broken without a vaccine or effective anti-viral, and these are months away. Every human being is vulnerable to this thing (unless you are a recovered case, in which case you have immunity), so we are all at risk for quite a while. |
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CRS, DrPH
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Lakeman5
V.I.P. Member Joined: March 19 2020 Location: IL Status: Offline Points: 480 |
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Many countries have differing percentages of people dying. Sometimes the numbers are cooked, like in China, Iran, and ,yes, the US. Italy may have a different strain. |
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KiwiMum
Chief Moderator Joined: May 29 2013 Status: Offline Points: 29670 |
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I've just read on Facebook that China has noted a loss of 8.1 million mobile phone accounts in the last 2 months. Did those people die I wonder? |
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Those who got it wrong, for whatever reason, may feel defensive and retrench into a position that doesn’t accord with the facts.
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AI
Adviser Group Joined: January 21 2020 Status: Offline Points: 8850 |
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Newbie1A
Adviser Group Joined: January 26 2018 Location: Alberta Status: Offline Points: 11180 |
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KiwiMum - I think you missed a calling in life, you'd make a great detective! I would think this is probably about as close to a real count that we might ever see... |
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If it's to be - it's up to me!
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FluMom
Adviser Group Valued Member Since 2006 Joined: February 03 2020 Location: Colorado Status: Offline Points: 14695 |
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See that would make more sense 8.1 million in China dead...5 million is even a reasonable number! Then I could believe 1 - 2 million here! |
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WitchMisspelled
Adviser Group Joined: January 20 2020 Status: Offline Points: 17170 |
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I imagine with lockdown, people weren't getting paid and shutting down unnecessary accounts.. like for kids |
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Technophobe
Assistant Admin Joined: January 16 2014 Location: Scotland Status: Offline Points: 88450 |
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Perhaps a bit of both. |
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How do you tell if a politician is lying?
His lips or pen are moving. |
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EdwinSm,
Moderator Joined: April 03 2013 Status: Offline Points: 24065 |
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Exactly Miss.... So the number is somewhere between 3 261 and 8 100 000. That is a huge spread, and not much in helping determine how things might go in our neck of the world. Any way to get a better handle on China's data? Although at this stage getting Chinese data is a bit late - looking to neighbouring countries (Sweden, Norway etc) for some guide, but not looking East* * Russia needs to hold its figures down to let Putin win a referendum to allow him to stay in power for the rest of his life. Putin is playing the virus risk down shaking hands with everyone (except anyone getting close to him has to be tested for Corvid-19 before they are allowed anywhere near). Putin seems to know the seriousness of it, but is putting his country at great risk so he can hold on to power. |
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Turboguy
Admin Group Joined: October 27 2007 Status: Offline Points: 6079 |
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You forgot the part where they lie about it, cover it up for months, and have the person ringing the alarm bell executed for possibly saying something that might hurt the China narrative. Literally none of what happened could have had: 1. China not been China doing stupid crap. 2. China not been literally creating superbugs for weapons 3. China not eating animals that they have no business whatsoever eating 4. China not slamming the iron curtain every time something embarrassing happens to them 5. China not lying with every word and trying to force *OUR* media to lie with them. If anyone thinks that China only had as few deaths as they're reporting, they're delusional. Anything China said I would multiply by ten or one hundred. Here in the U.S. if someone shot my kid for going out, God wouldn't be able to save them from my wrath. That alone is grounds for a genuine shooting civil war were our government to pull that. The Chinese are able to get away with it because they're viewed by their government as little more than drones. Imagine what would happen on U.S. soil after a Tienamen Square massacre like when the Chinese government took tanks and drove them over protesting civilians. No politician or public official of any level down to dogcatcher would be safe. |
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Liberals claim to want to give a hearing to other views, but then are shocked and offended to discover that there are other views. - William F. Buckley
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Technophobe
Assistant Admin Joined: January 16 2014 Location: Scotland Status: Offline Points: 88450 |
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Both! And both equally wrong! |
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How do you tell if a politician is lying?
His lips or pen are moving. |
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EdwinSm,
Moderator Joined: April 03 2013 Status: Offline Points: 24065 |
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Tienamen Square? Don't you mean Kent State? |
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