This news broadcast is really bothering me.

I watched this CNN broadcast yesterday (it is from the day before) and the numbers that they predict just do not compute in my brain. Sometimes I get stuck  and can’t see the forest for the trees.  Can you help me understand?

Here is a link to the broadcast:https://youtu.be/YbjrFqk32qM

Here is a screenshot of the table that is bothering me: 

This screenshot shows that on April 8 they were predicting that there would be 60,415 deaths by August 4th.  On April 22 they revised it to 67,641 and on the day before yesterday (the 28th) they were predicting 74,073 by August 4th.

The problem that I am having is that there have been over 1000 deaths a day for the last 28 days (26 when this was broadcast).  At 1000 deaths a day we hit 74,000 in 17 days, not 3 months.  (Though my charts show us hitting 74,000 in about a week.) Oh, and 1,000 a day is conservative, we have had many days over 2,000.  This 74,000 dead by Aug. is so unrealistic that I just can’t understand where the number is coming from. 

So, if you are a number geek like me, help me out here.  Where is my mistake? Why are my numbers so much worse than theirs? 

DJ-I think it is wise to look at excess deaths statistics not on "counted cases" that may or not be tested. The economic and social impact on the US is shocking. 

[url]https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2020-04-30/georgia-tech-simulator-predicts-23-million-deaths-us-august-if-social-distancing[/url]

(DJ The article is talking of 2.3 million deaths not 23 million, point is what policies are there-social distancing, masks or nothing ?)

The coronavirus has been mitigated by social distancing measures, but a second wave of the virus is expected when those measures are lifted. Now a simulator offers guidance on when the second wave of the coronavirus might hit based on when social distancing measures are lifted.

Easing social distancing to result in second wave of coronavirus

Georgia Tech collaborated with Massachusetts General Hospital and Harvard University in developing the COVID-19 simulator. Georgia is one of the first states to lift COVID-19 restrictions, so experts across the country are watching carefully to see what impact lifting those restrictions will have on the infection and death totals.

According to 11 Alive, Georgia Tech's simulator suggests the second wave of coronavirus cases could spike about two or three months after the social distancing restrictions are lifted. If the restrictions were lifted four weeks from now, the simulator suggests Georgia could see over 23,000 deaths by August.

However, if they continue for 12 more weeks, it projects only 1,940 deaths from COVID-19. If the second wave of the coronavirus brings a significant increase in the number of cases, it could mean that social distancing measures will be put back in place.

If minimal restrictions were imposed, the US nationwide would see 2,280,000 deaths by August according to the simulator.

Little House wrote: I watched this CNN broadcast yesterday (it is from the day before) and the numbers that they predict just do not compute in my brain. Sometimes I get stuck  and can’t see the forest for the trees.  Can you help me understand? Here is a link to the broadcast:https://youtu.be/YbjrFqk32qM Here is a screenshot of the table that is bothering me:  This screenshot shows that on April 8 they were predicting that there would be 60,415 deaths by August 4th.  On April 22 they revised it to 67,641 and on the day before yesterday (the 28th) they were predicting 74,073 by August 4th. The problem that I am having is that there have been over 1000 deaths a day for the last 28 days (26 when this was broadcast).  At 1000 deaths a day we hit 74,000 in 17 days, not 3 months.  (Though my charts show us hitting 74,000 in about a week.) Oh, and 1,000 a day is conservative, we have had many days over 2,000.  This 74,000 dead by Aug. is so unrealistic that I just can’t understand where the number is coming from.  So, if you are a number geek like me, help me out here.  Where is my mistake? Why are my numbers so much worse than theirs?

Maybe yours are real.  Just a thought.

I am pretty confident in saying we will be at 74,000 in about a week.  That is the most terrifying thing.  That little old me with a spreadsheet and a basic understanding of numbers can do better than those advising the leaders of the country.  Surely they know this too and for some reason don’t want to say.

But didn’t we see this in the beginning with BabyCat’s numbers?  He had them right, when all the official predictions were way off.

I noticed that in the data presented to WHO for 1st May, USA reported 2,909 new deaths for one day.    It is looking like the figure for 4th August will be reached very very soon (almost three months early!).  

The death toll is not likely to be nearly as bad as some of the early estimates of what it would be if no action was taken, but it is also a lot more than some of the optimistic estimates (that all countries seem to latch onto).    

One further thing that might keep the death toll lower is learning about how to treat symptomatic cases before they get to bad.   There is still a lot to learn, but the lock-downs leading to a flattening of the curve have given medical researchers some time to come up with suggestions.

[ps. Babycat has been "missing for a while" - she made a post that some people took as suggesting that older people should be allowed to die - a post that she received a lot of flank for, and because of that criticism  she said that she would leave this forum.]

Look guys we will most likely have 100K dead by December.  We had 60K dead from Flu last year.  People like me old and with some problems need to stay home so we do not die...if we don't we will be taking chances with our lives.  NOW those poor people in assisted living and nursing homes many of them will die just because the people who take care of them will expose them to Covid19,  just will happen.   People should wear masks to help not spread the virus but other than that life must go on!  

I  have s son who is the only thing I have in this world and I could lose him to Covid19 and I pray every day that it will not kill him.   But he has to go to school and work.  He has to live!

So yes there will be deaths until there are therapies that keep people from dying or a vaccine that works.    

LittleHouse, it's probably going to go up again before August.  With States opening up, some not in a safe way or following Fauci's recommended protocol, it's going to get ugly.  I though I saw that the year end total will be approximately 235,000 dead by December.  If this keeps up, I fear it will be adjusted higher as things go forward.  

I'm very glad to be in NY right now.  Cuomo has already warned us "downstate" NYC-metro area isn't going to be having restrictions listed anytime soon.  Its going to be a hardship for many.  But what price does one put on a life?