Tracking the next pandemic: Avian Flu Talk |
Ultimate mortality number? |
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AI
Adviser Group Joined: January 21 2020 Status: Offline Points: 8850 |
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Your limitations are rather obvious when it comes to US history and politics. All you have to do is open your mouth and rhetoric falls out and it's not even the smart kind. |
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Technophobe
Assistant Admin Joined: January 16 2014 Location: Scotland Status: Offline Points: 88450 |
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Now now, Carbon. Don't be so trollish! Yes, the majority of the world thinks the GOO hilarious, but you still have to be polite to the rest of America, especially those smart enough to be here on AFT. Smack wrist! |
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How do you tell if a politician is lying?
His lips or pen are moving. |
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AI
Adviser Group Joined: January 21 2020 Status: Offline Points: 8850 |
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WitchMisspelled
Adviser Group Joined: January 20 2020 Status: Offline Points: 17170 |
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I could be completely wrong. But, CRS has made mention of some things that add up to a direction other than just some training manager who teaches policy. In some cases, connections should be kept quiet. Not everyone brags about their accomplishments. Bragging reveals things that are just safer hidden under a bushel. |
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kaye kaye
V.I.P. Member Joined: February 27 2020 Location: ohio Status: Offline Points: 3290 |
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I call bullshit |
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keep the joy
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Taxman100
V.I.P. Member Joined: May 27 2013 Location: Richland Wa Status: Offline Points: 295 |
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There seems to be some common sense recommendations for re-opening if people will follow the instructions and not put others at risk just to make a political points. It's nonsense how grow up adults are acting over wearing masks, what a bunch of cry babies. We still don't know what the long term problems this illness could cause let along how long the immunity will last. We have the best universities and smartest people in the world in the US and we have a political party that goes on gut feel when it comes to science. Fauci is right, let the CDC make the recommendations and open when we have the testing and tracing in place. There is no need for 50% oi the population to get this illness just so people can get a hair cut or go to the movies. Glad I live in a state that has their act together WA. |
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Together we succeed
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AI
Adviser Group Joined: January 21 2020 Status: Offline Points: 8850 |
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KiwiMum
Chief Moderator Joined: May 29 2013 Status: Offline Points: 29680 |
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You're absolutely right there. There are increasingly frequent reports of people who've only had a mild case of Covid being left with heart damage and lung scarring. It's far too early to write this disease off as a mild inconvenience. |
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Those who got it wrong, for whatever reason, may feel defensive and retrench into a position that doesnβt accord with the facts.
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CRS, DrPH
Expert Level Adviser Joined: January 20 2014 Location: Arizona Status: Offline Points: 26660 |
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I'll see your bullshit and raise you. I've been informed about some scary bullshit, pathogens MUCH worse than this stupid little corona virus. You have no idea how soft & vulnerable the West is to our adversaries, and Trump sucks up to all of them. |
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CRS, DrPH
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WitchMisspelled
Adviser Group Joined: January 20 2020 Status: Offline Points: 17170 |
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Of course you do because you've never been involved with any of the intelligence agencies. I have had, to a limited degree, involvement both professionally and socially. Clearly CRS has ties closer than any of us. |
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CRS, DrPH
Expert Level Adviser Joined: January 20 2014 Location: Arizona Status: Offline Points: 26660 |
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Thanks, WM! These are friends of mine (FBI SWAT team). No BS. These folks are a-mazing! |
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CRS, DrPH
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jacksdad
Executive Admin Joined: September 08 2007 Location: San Diego Status: Offline Points: 47251 |
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I’ve known Chuck through AFT for a long time, and we PM each other regularly. You’re going to have to work awful hard to make me believe he’s anything but the genuine article. His insights and experience have been invaluable to us in the past. |
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"Buy it cheap. Stack it deep"
"Any community that fails to prepare, with the expectation that the federal government will come to the rescue, will be tragically wrong." Michael Leavitt, HHS Secretary. |
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Technophobe
Assistant Admin Joined: January 16 2014 Location: Scotland Status: Offline Points: 88450 |
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Hey, JD, your yes-man is back, DITTO. |
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How do you tell if a politician is lying?
His lips or pen are moving. |
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carbon20
Moderator Joined: April 08 2006 Location: West Australia Status: Offline Points: 65816 |
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Yep Doc's always there with sound advise, Up to the listener, If they Want to hear what's been said!!!!!!.... |
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Everything we hear is an opinion, not a fact. Everything we see is a perspective, not the truth.π
Marcus Aurelius |
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CRS, DrPH
Expert Level Adviser Joined: January 20 2014 Location: Arizona Status: Offline Points: 26660 |
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https://www.huffpost.com/entry/fauci-undercounted-covid-deaths_n_6097f441e4b05bee44cb6c43
One year later, it is looking like my prediction of 1 million US deaths from COVID-19 is probably correct: https://www.huffpost.com/entry/fauci-undercounted-covid-deaths_n_6097f441e4b05bee44cb6c43 The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has placed the number of deaths in the U.S. at around 577,800. In comparison, a study from the University of Washington released Thursday tallied around 905,000 deaths. “That’s a bit more than I would have thought the undercounting was,” Fauci said of that difference. “I think there’s no doubt ... that we are and have been undercounting. What that tells us is something that we’ve known. You know, we’re living through a historic pandemic, the likes of which we haven’t seen in over a hundred years.” |
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CRS, DrPH
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ME163
Admin Group Joined: September 16 2006 Status: Offline Points: 4552 |
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I think the undercount is far greater than 905,000. When I was in the hospital, i saw more death than I care to talk about. Then, the nursing home where I was, had like 64 deaths but reported only 49 Covid deaths. Do the math, I saw so many people die, it was so heartbreaking. Parents were dying away from kids and it was the saddest thing to see. I estimate death to be 1.5 million at the low end and 2 million at the high end. I lost two classmates and six more were so sick that they were in the ICU. We need to realize that the virus is not over. WE will need constant booster shots.... ME163 |
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CRS, DrPH
Expert Level Adviser Joined: January 20 2014 Location: Arizona Status: Offline Points: 26660 |
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Thanks, that was the response I was hoping to see! a) There were many deaths resulting from COVID-19 that were not due solely to the virus - it caused excess mortality from everything from suicide to drug overdose etc. "Official" counts are probably low by a factor of 2. b) It ain't over yet! I predicted one million based on some complicated epidemiological math, including a guesstimate of vaccination penetration that is turning out to be sadly optimistic. The virus continues to spread in many parts of the USA. c) I also hadn't factored in the rise of variants, since my original post lacked any data to work from. This RNA virus continues to evolve, mutate and kill. SUMMARY: COVID-19 will now be ingrained into US and global populations and continue to kill indefinitely. |
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CRS, DrPH
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Usk
V.I.P. Member Joined: January 26 2020 Location: Virginia Status: Offline Points: 7325 |
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So just as some of were saying all along this really was a powderpuff From WHo For comparison, the case fatality rate with seasonal flu in the United States is less than 0.1% (1 death per every 1,000 cases). Mortality rate for SARS was 10%, and for MERS 34%. VirusDeath Rate Wuhan Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) 2%* SARS 9.6% MERS 34% Swine Flu 0.02% |
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Technophobe
Assistant Admin Joined: January 16 2014 Location: Scotland Status: Offline Points: 88450 |
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I think the CFR for SARS2 is even lower than that, Usk. But CFR is only half the picture; infectivity is the other half - and with SARS2 that is both huge and still rising. Although it is still unproven, I am coming around to the idea that it is a lab release, because the only reason the death toll is in the millions (instead of the tens of millions or more it could have been) is the hercluean efforts governments have made to supress it. Because it has such a low CFR the temptation among the short-sighted is to dismiss it. But it has such a huge debilitation rate (with attendant medical rescource drain) and such a large R0, that if feet are removed from the breaks, it will turn nasty again "double quick pronto!". All of that is said without taking into consideration its mutation rate. We simply do not know what it will do tomorrow. |
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How do you tell if a politician is lying?
His lips or pen are moving. |
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ViQueen24
Adviser Group Joined: May 14 2013 Location: Verona, PA Status: Offline Points: 12270 |
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The people who are disabled and are not going to be able to participate in life as they used to know it are legion. I know several myself. Some won't be able to work. As people who are unable to work affect the US productivity and tax indexes, I believe many "powder-puffers" will be revising. https://calloutsandshoutoutsblog.blogspot.com/2021/05/fool-if-you-think-its-over.html |
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I am the DZ Queen, and I approve this message.
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Dutch Josh
Adviser Group Joined: May 01 2013 Location: Arnhem-Netherla Status: Offline Points: 95877 |
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When you look at [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ and click on the "deaths per million" you can get a list...1% of a million is 10,000. So Peru has lost 0,5% of its population so far during/from this pandemic. Hungary did see 0,3%+ of its population die...Twelve other countries did already see 0,2% of the population die. In total almost 50 countries did see 1/000-0,1% die from this pandemic...and that is a lot ! Long Covid is no joke-must run in the tens of millions by now..and this pandemic is not over yet...(by far). |
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We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein |
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carbon20
Moderator Joined: April 08 2006 Location: West Australia Status: Offline Points: 65816 |
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I don't believe you can compare SARS 1,or MERS,with Covid19, Both sort of faded away....... I'm stuck in the middle on whether C19 was lab created, The rate it mutates is amazing,but the flu virus is the same, But how do you prove that,and what would be the point ? After all was there a witch hunt after the last swine flu mini pandemic or the MERS,/SARS1 outbreaks....no..... why not ? Thats like blaming a co-worker for you getting "their" cold...!!!!! So childish...... All governments will have a covert bio technology going on, never mind the legitimate overt ones.... Accidents happen....!!!!! Take care all π·π.... |
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Everything we hear is an opinion, not a fact. Everything we see is a perspective, not the truth.π
Marcus Aurelius |
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