Tracking the next pandemic: Avian Flu Talk |
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Little House
V.I.P. Member Joined: February 13 2020 Location: Ohio Status: Offline Points: 1910 |
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Posted: May 16 2020 at 3:32am |
Three weeks ago, Georgia opened up. Three weeks ago, I thought that their case numbers would go through the roof. Today, I can’t believe what the numbers are telling me. I did not start tracking Georgia until the 21st of April (two days before they opened up). Now, I have heard that it can take three weeks to see the uptick in the data, but so far they are holding steady. The green dots show the 10 day moving average (the average of the 10 previous days). When the blue dots are above the green it means that the average is going up, when the blue dots are below the green it means that the average is going down. As you can see, they are bouncing above and below and the green line is pretty flat. Maybe this week we will see an increase, maybe we won’t. I want to be the person who looks at the data and not the one who is driven by emotion. Maybe opening up the state was not such a bad idea. If we don’t see an increase this week, I am going to reconsider how lock-downed my family needs to be. |
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Tabitha111
Adviser Group Joined: January 11 2020 Location: Virginia Status: Offline Points: 11640 |
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Do you take into consideration that not everyone went out to play and some are still staying home? I see that sentiment in my state of Virginia which semi-opened yesterday in my area. |
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'A man who does not think and plan long ahead will find trouble right at his door.'
--Confucius |
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ViQueen24
Adviser Group Joined: May 14 2013 Location: Verona, PA Status: Offline Points: 12270 |
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Little House
V.I.P. Member Joined: February 13 2020 Location: Ohio Status: Offline Points: 1910 |
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I guess that is the point. Three weeks ago all we were hearing was about how bad it would be, but so far, it hasn’t turned out that way. Links to news stories from three weeks ago: https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/apr/30/georgia-reopens-businesses-coronavirus-cases-rise The people of Georgia must be acting responsibly and keeping the numbers down, despite the dire predictions. Of course, it could also be that it takes time to get sick enough to get a test and get the results back. Another week or two should be enough to know for sure. |
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jacksdad
Executive Admin Joined: September 08 2007 Location: San Diego Status: Offline Points: 47251 |
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If the sentiment in Georgia is anything like here, people don't care what government officials say about the safety of opening up - they don't want to go and rub shoulders with other people. I'm guessing most people are still socially distancing and wearing masks if they choose to go out. |
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"Buy it cheap. Stack it deep"
"Any community that fails to prepare, with the expectation that the federal government will come to the rescue, will be tragically wrong." Michael Leavitt, HHS Secretary. |
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Tabitha111
Adviser Group Joined: January 11 2020 Location: Virginia Status: Offline Points: 11640 |
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Welp...I was taking a quick look at our beach's web cam here in Virginia Beach and I do not see a lot of compliance going on...the Guv said no siting on the beach ...just walking and exercise allowed...did see our mounted patrol on the boardwalk, but they aren't bothering the folks at the beach. take a gander yourself- weather is beautiful today... |
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'A man who does not think and plan long ahead will find trouble right at his door.'
--Confucius |
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Tabitha111
Adviser Group Joined: January 11 2020 Location: Virginia Status: Offline Points: 11640 |
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Can't wait to check out our beach cams on Memorial Day...omg...its going to be crazy down there. |
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'A man who does not think and plan long ahead will find trouble right at his door.'
--Confucius |
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Penham
Chief Moderator Moderator Joined: February 09 2006 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 14913 |
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Here in our state they opened up also even though we didn't meet the criteria. They are offering anyone that wants a covid 19 test one to have one even though they have no symptoms. The government says it will make our statistics look better. So, it's not all good. Cases and deaths still rising. |
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WitchMisspelled
Adviser Group Joined: January 20 2020 Status: Offline Points: 17170 |
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What I find most worrisome is this new re-classification of what is considered a Covid related death and what is not. I fear that will be used to suppress numbers of Covid-related deaths. For example, people who don't die due to actual cancer. They die of complications of cancer. |
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Technophobe
Assistant Admin Joined: January 16 2014 Location: Scotland Status: Offline Points: 88450 |
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Exactly, Witchy! There is LOADS of that going on! |
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How do you tell if a politician is lying?
His lips or pen are moving. |
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Usk
V.I.P. Member Joined: January 26 2020 Location: Virginia Status: Offline Points: 7325 |
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https://dph.georgia.gov/covid-19-daily-status-report Georgia is NOT experiencing an upsurge from opening economy because 99 percent are still practicing social distancing |
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CST
V.I.P. Member Joined: February 01 2020 Status: Offline Points: 400 |
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I am in Georgia. You see a lot of masks in stores. You also see a lot not wearing them. Our schools are closed. All restaurant workers must wear masks. Salons/Barber Shops must wear masks and are by appointment. People have been good at least in my area about keeping six feet away in stores. We have a Covid-19 "task force" in my area. They make sure that stores, restaurants are following the rules. I was very uneasy about opening things so soon. Hope this has been the right decision. I have 3 children. 33, 32 and almost 13. My husband is 70 in great physical condition, but takes meds that compromise his immune system. My two oldest don't live at home. My 12 year old and husband have only been to the teller. I work in Public Safety so have been working. I find myself wanting to let my Daughter have spend the night company, etc., but not yet. I will give it a few more weeks. |
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Little House
V.I.P. Member Joined: February 13 2020 Location: Ohio Status: Offline Points: 1910 |
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Thanks CST, that is what I am seeing here in Ohio too. I’m sorry that you don’t have another state that opened up before you to help make those decisions. I am watching your state closely and may find myself in an actual store in the next week or so (instead of pick-up), all because, so far, it looks like being careful might be enough to keep the numbers down. |
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Usk
V.I.P. Member Joined: January 26 2020 Location: Virginia Status: Offline Points: 7325 |
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Amen |
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Little House
V.I.P. Member Joined: February 13 2020 Location: Ohio Status: Offline Points: 1910 |
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So it took a lot longer than anyone predicted, but Georgia is really going up now. For those of you from Georgia, are people still wearing masks? What changed? Did people get tired of being careful, or is it being spread in spite of the masks? It seems that a lot of the nation started seeing increased cases all at once, my state of Ohio included. I am having a hard time understanding why. An updated graph of Georgia’s daily cases. This graph starts three days before Georgia opened up. |
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Usk
V.I.P. Member Joined: January 26 2020 Location: Virginia Status: Offline Points: 7325 |
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You should graph the daily case count or find hospital admission rates Westher app by Watson is best source 2,946 new cases yesterday |
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Little House
V.I.P. Member Joined: February 13 2020 Location: Ohio Status: Offline Points: 1910 |
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The graph I showed is a daily case count. Unfortunately, I have trouble finding detailed graphs. I make my own, but as I spend way too much time collecting data as it is, I just can’t add more to my list. (So the only hospital graphs I have are for my home state of Ohio and the county I live in.) Up thread, people from Georgia had chimed in, I was hoping to get an “on location” report again.. |
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