Tracking the next pandemic: Avian Flu Talk |
80% mild |
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EdwinSm,
Moderator Joined: April 03 2013 Status: Offline Points: 24065 |
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Posted: May 16 2020 at 11:25am |
A common figure going around is that 80% of people who get Covid19 have a mild case. This is used a lot in arguments about the need to open up and the 20% severe cases seems to be an acceptable social cost.
The next question that I have is what happens in the second and subsequent waves? If immunity wears off after just a few weeks, of if the virus has mutated like the common cold, then the 80% who had it mild face infection again. By the third wave (third year ?), if the 80% rule still holds true, then half the population would have either died or have serious health issues. [Strictly 80% x 80% x 80% = 51.2% would still be only "mildly" affected]. It might not be quiet as bad as the above, because in any epidemic it is unlikely that everyone would beome infected. But it does show the magnitude of the problem if immunity is not achieved. If one uses a rate of 70% infected then 30% of the population not be affected and 56% would have a mild case, equaling 86%. Using this higher rate of "OK people" it means after three waves over 1/3rd (~36%) of the population would have had a severe case (or died). To avoid these huge figures for serious cases, society has to make sure that the infection rate is kept very low at least until we know if long term immunity is given to recovered patients. |
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carbon20
Moderator Joined: April 08 2006 Location: West Australia Status: Offline Points: 65816 |
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101% AGREED....... We don't know enough yet... pity the poorer Nations....... |
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Everything we hear is an opinion, not a fact. Everything we see is a perspective, not the truth.🖖
Marcus Aurelius |
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FluMom
Adviser Group Valued Member Since 2006 Joined: February 03 2020 Location: Colorado Status: Offline Points: 14695 |
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This is all a crap shoot but people have to make a living. The world will just have to deal with the crap China caused. I bet most of the people on this forum are retired, work from home, or are on a farm. Many of us do not have to work Outside the home to pay the rent/mortgage, utilities, car and food. We can stay home and still survive. Dr. CRS on this forum told us 80% was mild along with most other experts so that is what most believe. We have to get back to work those who do not want to go back to work stay home. This is not brain surgery! |
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Technophobe
Assistant Admin Joined: January 16 2014 Location: Scotland Status: Offline Points: 88450 |
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Food has to be grown and harvested, utilities must be maintained and domestic services (police, fire ambulance) must continue. There is no argument on that. But if a person starves bercause their, pub, resturant, hairdresser's or massage parlour must remain shut to stop infection spread, then that is a failure of the administration in charge. Our current government is a right-wing one - which we needed. But they are behaving AT THIS PRECISE MOMENT like a socialist one, also because that is what is needed to fight the virus. Ideology should not be an excuse for letting people die, either from the virus or the econnomic repuircussions of it. That is unforgivable. |
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How do you tell if a politician is lying?
His lips or pen are moving. |
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WitchMisspelled
Adviser Group Joined: January 20 2020 Status: Offline Points: 17170 |
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This situation is far more complicated than one might think. I think the current mortality rate of this is a factor. And although I agree that people have to work, I disagree that people have to work during this crisis. As I posted in another thread the Fed "loans" trillions to banks every single day. The money is there to supplement and enable people to stay home during this crisis. It's just being handed to corporations. I find it remarkable how people scream cry and rage over "the welfare state" but not see the corporate welfare that happens every single damn day. It's something people need to wake up to. |
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carbon20
Moderator Joined: April 08 2006 Location: West Australia Status: Offline Points: 65816 |
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The government should be supporting and PROTECTING the people,first and foremost, the economy comes second, People before $$$$$ It took the UK near 70 years to pay for WW2 THIS WAR HAS ONLY JUST STARTED..... |
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Everything we hear is an opinion, not a fact. Everything we see is a perspective, not the truth.🖖
Marcus Aurelius |
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AandEM
V.I.P. Member Joined: March 06 2020 Location: IN Status: Offline Points: 1245 |
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The cost of medical care for that high number of infected, minus a cheaper, effective treatment, would likely swamp the economic recovery. |
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DeepThinker
V.I.P. Member Joined: September 26 2015 Location: So. California Status: Offline Points: 3245 |
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I am amazed at the poor understanding of economics displayed on this forum. Yes the government can borrow/print money. A very large amount even. However if it isn't backed up by productivity it is worthless. Having more and more money chasing after fewer and fewer goods is a recipe for disaster. |
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Flubergasted
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If too many people get sick, there won't be any productivity. It's a balancing act. Until we are protecting everyone's health, our productivity will suffer. People are our most valuable resource., and health IS wealth.
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AandEM
V.I.P. Member Joined: March 06 2020 Location: IN Status: Offline Points: 1245 |
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Exactly, if even 20% of the population were to need medical intervention over the course of the entire pandemic, not only loss in revenue from sick workers, but that's $640,000,000,000 if each case averages just 10k in medical costs. Mitigating strategies will always be cost effective. |
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