CDC Confirms Remarkably Low Death Rate. POWDERPUFF

Lets see how the maths works out.  

Currently USA is reporting 97,669 deaths.      Using "current best estimate" of 0.4% for symptomatic cases, and 0.26% for all (allowing for 35% asymptomatic case), this gives 24 million symptomatic cases and 37 million for all cases.  

So the spread in the USA is such that around 10% of the population has been infected by the SARS-Cov2 virus.  

So the final death toll (on these estimates) would be about 100.000 for each 10% of the population infected.  So final estimates depend on how far this spreads.  

The first closed case, The Diamond Princess, had about 20% infected (after lock down), but I remember some other cruise ships that were up to 50% (I can't remember the name, but there was a smaller ship that went to the Antarctic that had a high rate).    

Taking the lower figure of 20% spread, the CDC report implies that we should see  another 100.000 deaths in the USA.     That in itself is not a slate-wiper, but the figures are high enough for it to seem more like a deadly nightshade laced powder puff.

It saddens me.....

Yes that 100k number looks bad.   However in most places it is only an increase for the year of about .5% deaths.... in the hardest hit areas it is only an increase of about 1%.   Millions of people die every year.   

Edit: New  York has seen a 15% increase in yearly deaths from covid.   Considering the advanced age and fragile health condtion of most vicitims....   Once the entire years worth of deaths have been calculated I would bet it is much smaller.   This is disease is not killing young healthy people, but people already at the end of their life.  In the USA the average life expectancy in nursing homes is about 6 months.   So within a year or so I doubt we will even statistically notice these excess deaths.

And I’m willing to bet they were saying the same thing around this time in 1918. We know how that turned out. You’re basing everything on a first wave, and no pandemic in modern history had it’s baby steps turn out to be it’s deadliest.

Minimize this all you like, but it still has the potential to bring us to our knees if we don’t respect it. I’m prepping for subsequent waves as if my family’s lives depended on it. Anything less makes no sense whatsoever knowing what we know about pandemics.

Currently we have nice high life expectancy here in the West.  There is a great deal of complacency and "I'm alright Jack"-ism among the younger age groups.  If however this becomes endemic (The path it is already firmly on) our life expectancy will fall.  Many of the diseases we can now treat, which are associated with older age groups, like heart disease, diabetes, cancer, arthritis will all carry far higher death rates.  That is without further mutation.

Already, the wu tiicks the main box for a slate-wiper, in that it can jump between other species and back again - quite easily it seems.  Should a nastier strain emerge, we are up a proverbial brown creek, without any means of controlled propulsion.  

The more cases the more chance a virus has to mutate.  Mutation comes easy to coronaviruses,.  Vaccinations come hard. 

I also think the statistics are beiung "massaged" to facilitate/encourage an early end to lockdowns.

Then don’t prep, and hope you can change tactics at short notice. 

Personally, I’m getting ready now for something far worse than we’ve already seen because that same data suggests to me that we have a good chance of  getting our butts kicked next time around, in large part because the government won’t be in any shape to help us at that point (not that they have been). Not prepping potentially exposes me and mine to a worst case scenario I don’t want to experience. To each his own, I guess.

From what I've read 60,000 people died in the U.S. during the 1918 pandemic, which lasted 18 months. Population then was 106,000,000 of far more resilient people living in a more resilient economy. 

Now there have been 100k deaths in 90 days. 

330,000,000 people living in a high tech, JIT economy, crap for health, and apparently so little concern for the public good that they can't bring themselves to wear a mask in public.

Yeah, I'd say the potential for considerable butt-kicking remains high.

I wasn't going to do this because I understand my experience here in NYC has been more extreme than in other areas of the country... BUT...  Here's the potential for those who are calling this thing a "powderpuff"  The real stats.  Not fudged numbers and attributing those faked numbers in a misleading manner.

In March and April, the State of New York deaths spiked 42%

In March and April the City of New York deaths spiked 225%

So where ANYONE gets 15% uptick in NYC deaths must be pro-rating it over 10 years.  Its a misleading claim.  But that's what those who have a vested interest in minimizing this crisis are doing.  Repeating misleading claims. Swallow, rinse, regurgitate.  

Could this have been worse? Oh yeah! Without doubt! But to call this virus a "powderpuff" .. well.. bombastic New Yorker that I am, I just have to call it out as: You just can't fix stupid.

Oh.. and by the way.. to perpetrate the myth that only old people die from this is unconscionable.  I dare you to tell any 50 year old (which is where the deaths start spiking to 20%) they're too old to contribute.

DT.... don't ever go for actuarial.  Just sayin'...

BBC News - Coronavirus: How pandemic in US compares to rest of world

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-52771783