U.S 200,000 dead by September

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Reuters: U.S. could reach 200,000 coronavirus deaths in September, expert says.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-usa/u-s-could-reach-200000-coronavirus-deaths-in-september-expert-says-idUSKBN23I06D?feedType=mktg&feedName=topNews&WT.mc_id=Partner-Google

After all the protests I'm guessing 500,000.......by Christmas

Hope I'm wrong.....

Time for a bump....to see where things are a month later.   The death rate has been quite low and it was slowy sinking, so I was wondering if that sad mile-stone would be reached, or if it would only be at the end of September.   Currently the CDC reported figure is 134,572 deaths (as of 12th July).   65,000 cases to go at 800 deaths a day would be 81 days so around the beginning of October.

However, with the recent surge in cases, there is signs that the number of daily deaths from corvid-19 is beginning to rise again, so maybe the mile-stone will be reached early in the month or even in August.

I'm in rural Idaho.   It's starting to take off here.  Business next to the one my wife works in had all workers sick yesterday with 

symptoms.  Of course they aren't going to get tested.  It's laughable really.   

Tabitha111 wrote: Just saw a facebook post that is making the rounds...the girl in it is anti-mask...so instead of wearing a mask in Washington State where it is mandated, she drives across the line to Idaho - where it is not, to do her shopping. (Funny how afraid these people are of a little piece of cloth.)

Might smudge the lippy.....darling......

Sorry but its F...ing madness....

Should have to be quarantined crossing borders.....

Emswally:

Are these people just got cold like symptoms?

 or really Sick and have to be in hospital ?

The forecast from June of 200,000 deaths being reached during September seem to be on track. Given current rates my guess is it will occur around the middle of the month.

I have been pleased to see the death rates have not risen with the case rates so I was wondering if there would be fewer than 300,000 USA deaths from Corvid by the end of the year, when I saw this on the BBC Live News.

And the death toll may rise dramatically in the coming months if projections by the University of Washington are correct. Scientists there estimate the toll will reach 410,000 by 1 January, but more than half of those lives could be saved if face masks are made mandatory

Maybe I have been too optimistic!

Josh posted this link:  https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/first-covid-19-global-forecast-ihme-projects-three-quarters-of-a-million-lives-could-be-saved-by-january-1-301124287.html  which gives more details of the estimate. 

The 410,000 deaths by 1st January 2010, is the "Most Likely" (estimated range of   347,551–515,272) .

The best case (for the USA) is 288,381 (range of 257,286–327,775) 

The worst case is 620,029 (range of 463,361–874,649) 

As will all looking into the future things get very murky with a wide range of possibilities.  But the forecasts in the link are all much worse than I was thinking things would be given how the summer has gone.  I suspect that we have not yet seen the worst effects of opening up society.  

carbon20 wrote: Is anyone really surprised at 200 000 + dead?  the USA's administrations approach to this pandemic has been abysmal....... RE JacksDad's signature...... "Buy it cheap. Stack it deep" "Any community that fails to prepare, with the expectation that the federal government will come to the rescue, will be tragically wrong." Michael Leavitt, HHS Secretary. .  Missing you JD hope you and yours are OK.... Stay safe all 😷😉

Nice, thanks! 

At the very beginning of this thing (mid Feb 2020), I calculated 2 million US deaths using the paucity of data available from China for incubation period, case fatality rate etc.   A bit later on, I estimated 1 million eventual deaths in the US since we now have a bit of herd immunity ongoing and reinfection doesn't appear likely. 

I'll stick with 1 million total US deaths.  500,000 dead by the end of 2020 in the USA seems very possible to me, especially since the US population appears very fatigued with the discipline it takes to self-isolate and wear masks.  Beachs were very crowded in the US this Labor Day holiday, so we'll have another spike in a few weeks.  

Universities are having a hellish time controlling COVID-19 among students.  We have a long way to go, friends. 

Be safe, all. 

I wonder if the 400,000+ I heard banded about, 

Is an accurate prediction,

I think it's is with cases going up  all over.......

Sad but true......

Could have been so much better.......

Coming into winter with all the rallies I see on TV....

 400000.......seems possible.....so easy to write 400000.....

Think of all the families that will lose a loved one......

Let alone the on going health care and concerns......the infection brings.....

Terrible absolutely terrible.....and very sad.....

Take care all 

😷😉