Tracking the next pandemic: Avian Flu Talk |
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Tabitha111
Adviser Group Joined: January 11 2020 Location: Virginia Status: Offline Points: 11640 |
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Posted: June 25 2020 at 9:47am |
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We had a topic somewhere on here called Rants...sorry could not find it...but here is one of mine at the moment.
coronavirus updates: US reports 35K daily cases; New York City Marathon canceled; Fauci warns of 'disturbing surge'
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'A man who does not think and plan long ahead will find trouble right at his door.'
--Confucius |
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EdwinSm,
Moderator Joined: April 03 2013 Status: Offline Points: 24065 |
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I am not sure that we can go back to wide-spread lock-downs. I don't think that the general population would support that. BUT I do hope that there can be specific lock-downs when there is a flare up in any one area. |
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carbon20
Moderator Joined: April 08 2006 Location: West Australia Status: Offline Points: 65816 |
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Most people are ignorant of health issues until it impacts on them, I have been laughed at for saying to people that a bird flu virus could kill millions...... Those people aren't laughing now..... I am still laughed at by people who don't believe that a comet, killed the dinosaurs, a very religious man I know (Muslim)looks at me as if I'm mad when I say to him "if that comet had missed there would be no Human race...... Think about that one...... The lack of belief in science is so SCARY...... Dumb and dumber....... |
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Everything we hear is an opinion, not a fact. Everything we see is a perspective, not the truth.🖖
Marcus Aurelius |
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Dutch Josh
Adviser Group Joined: May 01 2013 Location: Arnhem-Netherla Status: Offline Points: 95777 |
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[url]https://nltimes.nl/2020/06/25/dutch-governments-coronavirus-policy-losing-support[/url] DJ-We will be in our second wave in NL within a few weeks. You can see it happening-with R0 above 1 and a lot of travel on its way. Not only people ignore science, most politicians go for the short term, votes, support-even when it is destroying all on the longer term. |
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We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein |
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CRS, DrPH
Expert Level Adviser Joined: January 20 2014 Location: Arizona Status: Offline Points: 26660 |
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On the other hand, wide-spread lockdowns may be necessary. I've been chatting with an old friend (senior epidemiologist at CDC), and we both agree that the ongoing surges are due to folks getting out into public during Mother's Day (May 10) and Memorial Day (May 25). Folks just haven't taken this seriously yet. I presently live in Arizona, and we are going totally backwards...folks here came out of lockdown, seemed to think all was OK, and started partying en masse. We are now all paying the price. Sorry, this is an extremely contagious virus, and the USA is doing a lousy job with managing it, compared to nearly everyone. I think an economic shutdown and repeated lockdown is inevitable, whether people like it or not. Lack of hospital ICU beds will be the indicator, and we are nearly there in AZ. |
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CRS, DrPH
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EdwinSm,
Moderator Joined: April 03 2013 Status: Offline Points: 24065 |
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Dr, I agree with you on the medical necessity, but I am just not sure that there is the political will to do what is medically necessary. Neither is there the necessary personal will to keep up with social distancing (hence all the parties). People seem to be following the "Eat, drink, and be merry, for tomorrow we die" philosophy, forgetting that corvid19 is one nasty way to die (it is also nasty if one 'recovers' leading to long term complications and therefore a shorter life expectancy). I suppose I am feeling a little depressed at how people are giving up on fighting this virus. Even places hard hit like England (which has a significantly higher death rate than the USA), saw beaches crowded over the last sunny weekend. I am not sure how to mentally 'get use' to an on-going higher death rate and higher rate of long-term seriously ill people. The cost to society of opening up too early will be very high. |
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Tabitha111
Adviser Group Joined: January 11 2020 Location: Virginia Status: Offline Points: 11640 |
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The numbers now are just stupid . Almost 25,000 today not even 2:00. Almost 10,000 in Florida. This is a complete failure in governance on the Federal level . This goes to the heart of the President. The science is clear and he has ignored the science. That is in my eyes impeachable. He has not kept Americans safe in our own country. |
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'A man who does not think and plan long ahead will find trouble right at his door.'
--Confucius |
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jacksdad
Executive Admin Joined: September 08 2007 Location: San Diego Status: Offline Points: 47251 |
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More lockdowns are inevitable until a vaccine is widely available. The thing that blows my mind is that none of the pandemic scenarios I’ve ever read took into account a significant number of people refusing to acknowledge the reality of the situation. Nobody ever thought masks or SIP orders would become politicized. We’re screwed unless people wake up and start taking this seriously, and the current administration is doing absolutely nothing to make that happen. |
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"Buy it cheap. Stack it deep"
"Any community that fails to prepare, with the expectation that the federal government will come to the rescue, will be tragically wrong." Michael Leavitt, HHS Secretary. |
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carbon20
Moderator Joined: April 08 2006 Location: West Australia Status: Offline Points: 65816 |
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Finding it All very interesting JD, The classic thing I've heard "my body, my choice"!!!!!..... Mmmm try driving at 100 mph in a 30 zone..... Your in a Public health Disaster...... Leaderless and with no Main Mast no Rudder....... |
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Everything we hear is an opinion, not a fact. Everything we see is a perspective, not the truth.🖖
Marcus Aurelius |
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carbon20
Moderator Joined: April 08 2006 Location: West Australia Status: Offline Points: 65816 |
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I foresee a suddenly sick president that sees him resign on health reasons.......... When the going gets tough the Heel Spurs grow...... |
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Everything we hear is an opinion, not a fact. Everything we see is a perspective, not the truth.🖖
Marcus Aurelius |
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WitchMisspelled
Adviser Group Joined: January 20 2020 Status: Offline Points: 17170 |
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There's so much I want to say about what I'm seeing in the news these last two or so days. I waffle between not being able to work up much sympathy or compassion (except for healthcare workers, first responders and essential workers) and being horrified for a public who's ignorance brought my nation to this. New York has been the best example of what following the science can do and it doesn't appear other elected leaders are paying attention. Or that the public in general is paying attention. Then again, New Yorkers really are a different breed. When things got tough, we came together as a community and toughed it out. I'm not saying NY did everything right... or that Cuomo's plan was without some fault, but it worked. It is still working. For now, our numbers are still going down. |
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KiwiMum
Chief Moderator Joined: May 29 2013 Status: Offline Points: 29680 |
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Maybe the seriousness of this virus will only sink into the masses when they all start seeing friends and family coming down with it and being left with ongoing health issues as a result of it, or dying. I think the idea of "liberties" in the American mind has reached epic proportions and that some people seem to be so outraged that anything might impinge on their liberties that they really have lost their sense of both proportion and reason. My sister is a Trump supporter, which I'm amazed about, but he can do no wrong in her eyes. She can find an excuse for everything stupid he says and does. She's obviously lost her mind. |
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Those who got it wrong, for whatever reason, may feel defensive and retrench into a position that doesn’t accord with the facts.
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CRS, DrPH
Expert Level Adviser Joined: January 20 2014 Location: Arizona Status: Offline Points: 26660 |
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Thank you, this is a very sober and realistic post! Reality may yet drive the lockdown. At the beginning, remember that the massive surge of cases in states like New York led to the lockdown, since ICU beds, PPE, ventilators and other medical necessities were in short supply. People didn't really wear masks because none were readily available....I personally took to wearing a bandana, bandit-style (still my preferred mask). In order to "flatten the curve," we shut down the economy and encouraged isolation. That did work very well, but as you mention, self-discipline is also needed. The young adults who are partying and drinking will lose access to bars in Texas, so they will buy kegs, go to state parks etc. and congregate there. I agree, they seem to have an "eat, drink and be merry" mindset! They need to have a few more friends die I guess....one 20 year old women in Chicago needed a double lung transplant, her lungs were ruined so badly. Once ICU beds are saturated, a new reality will be enforced upon our politicians, and they will be forced to act. The alternative is what....people dying at home, or in their cars? Mass burials like in the movie "Contagion?" (already experienced in NYC). A very good friend of mine is a senior infectious disease epidemiology at CDC, and he posted this on Facebook tonight: The Vice President says we are in a much better place than we were several months ago. At least 124,891 of us are. |
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CRS, DrPH
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Little House
V.I.P. Member Joined: February 13 2020 Location: Ohio Status: Offline Points: 1910 |
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So far, I do not know anyone who has gotten it. I do “know of” several people who have been diagnosed with it. (Friend or family members of friends.). I am hoping that by the time we reach 3.3 million diagnosed cases, people will start to believe that this is real and act accordingly. 3.3 million would be 1 in a hundred people in the US. Most people know at least 100 people, so by this reasoning, most people would know someone who has been diagnosed. My fear is that it will take 3.3 million deaths to get us to the point where people take it seriously. |
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WitchMisspelled
Adviser Group Joined: January 20 2020 Status: Offline Points: 17170 |
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I think you're right. And I'm sorry you have to deal with your sister knowing she's part of the problem. I know I should know this, but can't recall where in the U.S. your sister is? |
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Emswally
V.I.P. Member Joined: January 25 2020 Location: Idaho USA Status: Offline Points: 1380 |
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VeI’ve pretty much given up on the people in my community. Walked into a store this morning in uniform ( first responder) Have mymask on. Someone looks at me and shakes their head. I calmly asked what ? Response. You don’t need to wear a mask. Ugh. I’m the one taking people to the hospital. Give me a break. Can’t avoid the public enough and can’t get everything online. |
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carbon20
Moderator Joined: April 08 2006 Location: West Australia Status: Offline Points: 65816 |
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G I doubt if people realise that because, Covid19 is a "NOVEL" virus the long term ramifications of even having a mild dose are not known yet, To think it's "just another virus" Is foolhardy, and one should avoid Catching it at all cost until more is known , Which could be years away....... No-one takes any notice here if a person chooses to wear a mask. Mind I do wonder why people wear one when in a car alone !!!???? see that here often..... |
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Everything we hear is an opinion, not a fact. Everything we see is a perspective, not the truth.🖖
Marcus Aurelius |
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EdwinSm,
Moderator Joined: April 03 2013 Status: Offline Points: 24065 |
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If it keeps spreading there many not be too many of the public still able to go shopping / beach / rave parties etc. |
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CRS, DrPH
Expert Level Adviser Joined: January 20 2014 Location: Arizona Status: Offline Points: 26660 |
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Thanks, Ems! I just presented to our town council on the importance of wearing masks, and the only member of the council wearing a mask was the Chief of the Fire Department. The others seem to toe the administration line = "nothing to see here, move along." I've brought up what you said = if the public wears masks, they particularly help to protect our first responders, who by job description need to get up close & personal with humanity. To chant "Blue lives matter!" and then denigrate wearing a mask is the ultimate in hypocrisy. Be safe, all. |
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CRS, DrPH
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Little House
V.I.P. Member Joined: February 13 2020 Location: Ohio Status: Offline Points: 1910 |
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If I am going to be somewhere where I will need to wear a mask for a while, I will often put it on at home so that I can get it adjusted. I find it hard to get it on in a way that keeps my glasses from steaming up. The other time I will wear it in the car is if I have been around a lot of people. I like to leave it on until I can get to somewhere where I can wash my hands. If I take it off in the car, I am likely to touch my face and contaminate myself. (I ran out of wipes and still can’t get more.) I know that it seems weird that people wear masks in a car alone, but there are logical reasons to do so. |
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carbon20
Moderator Joined: April 08 2006 Location: West Australia Status: Offline Points: 65816 |
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Fair enough,that makes sense... In fact, it makes a great deal of sense, I often see people Mishandling masks,and have never seen anyone "in the know " explain how to handle a used mask... Thanks 😉 |
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Everything we hear is an opinion, not a fact. Everything we see is a perspective, not the truth.🖖
Marcus Aurelius |
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Tabitha111
Adviser Group Joined: January 11 2020 Location: Virginia Status: Offline Points: 11640 |
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I have posted this so many times I probably should just put it in a file... |
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'A man who does not think and plan long ahead will find trouble right at his door.'
--Confucius |
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CindyLou
V.I.P. Member Joined: March 12 2020 Location: MICHIGAN Status: Offline Points: 325 |
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I bought swim goggles. Most sport supply stores and dollar stores sell them. I have several pair, as I keep them in the car and at home. They give more eye protection than glasses, as they are made to seal out water. I don't leave the house either, unless it is absolutely necessary. |
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Tabitha111
Adviser Group Joined: January 11 2020 Location: Virginia Status: Offline Points: 11640 |
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Went to the dog park yesterday, first time since March. I was prepared, mask, sanitizer. My dog is little and dog park is divided in half with a chain link fence, one side for big dogs, the other side for littles. My plan was to let him roam on the littles side if no one else was in there. Lots of dogs and owners w/kids on the big side...I was in luck and we were the only ones there on our side, still kept my mask on though....and then I observed the other people across the fence and see why we will never kick this virus.... The owners of these dogs - no masks at all, there were families with little kids roaming around, one kid blowing bubbles on everyone else, adults def not 6 feet apart, let alone a foot apart, one older man was smoking and blowing smoke all around..all clustered in groups chatting...did they all know each other? nope, as I heard "it was nice meeting you" to someone that she had been showing photos on her phone to shoulder to shoulder...I was the ONLY person masked and staying far away from anyone....no wonder our numbers are getting worse! |
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'A man who does not think and plan long ahead will find trouble right at his door.'
--Confucius |
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ViQueen24
Adviser Group Joined: May 14 2013 Location: Verona, PA Status: Offline Points: 12270 |
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It really is true that you can't fix stupid. And if a person chooses to be stupid, and pays the ultimate price and dies, that's unfortunate, but if they were warned of the consequences, as folks have been with this, I have no sympathy for them. They have made their choice. By God, just keep stupid choices at least 6 feet away from me and mine! |
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EdwinSm,
Moderator Joined: April 03 2013 Status: Offline Points: 24065 |
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The trouble Vi is it that it does not just stop with the stupid person...when they get ill they pass it in, and as they won't wear masks they spread it far and wide. As Tab said, with the general behaviour this virus will keep doing the rounds. |
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CRS, DrPH
Expert Level Adviser Joined: January 20 2014 Location: Arizona Status: Offline Points: 26660 |
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When the situation gets bad enough, there will be political will. Doctors at a Texas hospital along the US-Mexico border may decide to send coronavirus patients “home to die by their loved ones” due to limited resources, officials say. Government and health officials in Starr County announced this week they are creating committees to review patients’ cases at the Starr County Memorial Hospital in Rio Grande City. |
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CRS, DrPH
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ViQueen24
Adviser Group Joined: May 14 2013 Location: Verona, PA Status: Offline Points: 12270 |
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Yes, Edwin, that's true, so they should keep themselves and their stupid choices away from everybody. But they make stupid choices, so they won't. I had a chat with a friend of mine last week who said, if the law allowed (she lives in upstate New York), she'd take her chances at work and leave her mask off. And I said, all well and good, you'll be cooler then, but what about that poor person you expose while you're asymptomatic, maybe a young child who isn't wearing a mask because it's hard to keep masks on young children, should they have to take their chances, too? Or if someone touches a surface you've touched while asymptomatic? And she said, I thought WHO said asymptomatic people can't spread Covid. (Facepalm) |
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roni3470
Adviser Group Joined: August 30 2006 Location: Colorado Status: Offline Points: 5390 |
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I wanted to share some maybe significant news. My friend is a store manager at Target. he let me know that they got a directive from corporate to limit toilet paper and paper towels to one per person again. Time to stock up folks! |
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NOW is the Season to Know
that Everything you Do is Sacred |
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WitchMisspelled
Adviser Group Joined: January 20 2020 Status: Offline Points: 17170 |
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Oh sheesh! I'm still having a hard time finding hand soap! Now I've got to source paper towels and find a place to store them. |
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ViQueen24
Adviser Group Joined: May 14 2013 Location: Verona, PA Status: Offline Points: 12270 |
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Thanks for the heads up, Roni! |
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