Pandemic Alert Level

WitchMisspelled wrote: The larger question begs to be asked.  Is this new mutation less deadly?

Have to wait and see....

About alot of things associated with this virus.....that we don't know yet.....

5

Over ?

We haven't seen the start yet.....

Wait until the northern hemisphere gets into cold and flu season......

(seems it didn't disappear in the heat)

Not over by along way yet  .....

Keep safe all 

😷😉

Over 4,500 deaths per day and cumulative of nearly 790,000 deaths worldwide.  Nothing to see here.  

Of the 15,264,162 resolved cases deaths are 789,128.  Hard and fast division puts that CFR at closer to .5% not .3%.  

We'll have an effective vaccine in under two years when it usually takes three to five years to develop an effective vaccine.  Not to worry!  

As an aside, things I've read state the CFR of Spanish influenza was .025 to .027 over the three waves.  

So here we are ten days later...

The CFR is 0.3% exactly what we calculated in February from the cruise ships. 

Don't take my word 

The CDC's figures discussed

Every country now has a vaccine. Panic over people. The hysteria fading.

We just have to get past the election and the media will stop. 

I give it six months and you will all be calling it a powderpuff

Interesting chart, Albert.

The USA is reporting a CFR of 3.2% so by this measure the Pandemic should be at level 5 (top level).

I do not know the current projection for number of deaths but using recent figures (~160,000) then by this metric the USA is currently at level 2 (near the bottom).  From the data, as it is now, it would be reasonable to say that level 3 will be reached (over 450,000 deaths) by the end of the pandemic.

So on these matrices one should say that it is fair that the USA is currently at the top level of the pandemic scale.  

To bring the level down will require much more (and faster) testing.   In general the more testing that is done the closer the CFR figure comes to the Infection Fatality Rate (IFR), which some estimates put at around 0.6 - 0.8%.   This would indicate a pandemic level of 3.  

I have no crystal ball to determine the outcome other than projecting current trends (and I know trends change) but it is looking to me that this might end up as a Level 3 pandemic - serious (far more than a 'powder puff') but nowhere near making a major dent on the population levels of the country.

ps. If the IFR estimate is correct and deaths are accurately recorded then the USA case load should be around 27 million, not the 5 million reported. This is still less than 10% of the population, and the CDC chart estimated a 30% infection rate, so only about 1/3rd of the way through this outbreak. Hold tight for a long ride.

Thanks for the question, Cobber, and great replies and input from everyone.  Much appreciated.  

This forum was designed more-so for a category 5 pandemic, and for more of a slate-wiper (an avian flu pandemic) lol, so any pandemic will seem powderpuff compared to that scenario. 

Either way you slice, it's a pandemic.  A Cat-2 Pandemic is still a pandemic none the less.   After Wave 2 this winter and once we are in the post pandemic phase, we will downgrade the alert level potentially to level 1, as covid-19 will become more seasonal with the vaccine and it will become a way of life.   Downgrading the Alert Level prior to Wave Two, which will be a severe and avoidable event, unfortunately can't happen at this time. 

Don't let your guards down too soon and before W-2.       

Thank you again for the great input!  

A

Definitely here to stay,

Can't see a vaccine...happening....

Have to learn to cope  with it,

I do wonder how we will open up.......

take care all😷😉

Dont worry folks we will all be exposed to Covid. Maybe not today or tomorrow, but some day it will transmit through our community. I don't believe it can ever be stopped. I believe this virus will be here forever. Just like the flu or cold. 

I say let the community get it in a controlled way as they did in Sweden and build herd immunity and lets get on with business as they have done. Sweden took a completely different approach to Covid. look it up (if you can...Google jail)

Don't believe the media hype, as its a political beat up.

Carbon; I don't fear Covid.  Bring it on i say. 

Its a powderpuff.

Interestingly, we here in NZ were all asked yesterday to get ourselves a mask in readiness for when the virus reappears here. I went shopping this morning and people were happily buying them and accepting that it's a good idea. A friend rang to ask me what our mask situation was like. I told her I'll be making the Olsen mask for my family. I'll make us two each, for variety, and they are washable and will be quick to dry. I bought a pair of extra large gym pants this morning to use as fabric and will buy some high thread count pillowcases to use that fabric as the lining. I've seen some 1500 Eygptian cotton ones, so I'll get a pair of those and cut them up. 

By and large Kiwis are coping with it just fine I think.

The Conversation AU: 100 days without COVID-19: how New Zealand got rid of a virus that keeps spreading across the world.

https://theconversation.com/100-days-without-covid-19-how-new-zealand-got-rid-of-a-virus-that-keeps-spreading-across-the-world-143672

Here in Western Australia,

We closed down our borders, locked down, and anyone returning has to spend 2 weeks in hotel quarantine at own expense.....

We have had a few hiccups,but seems to be well undercontrol here,

No cases for 100 days,a few people in quarantine have tested positive ,but no community transmission.....

Everything back to normal no masks, some people choose to wear one, never seen or heard of any abuse here in WA.

Cobber, don't be to cock sure, Adelaide seems to be ramping up ,

Best get ready....matey 😷😉

Here in Ohio you have to wear a mask.  I don't think our Governor followed the rules, he tested positive.  

I heard reports he is now negative ,  I guess we will have to wait for best out of three.  

My husband's ENT doctor told him masks weren't that great.  If your going to wear something wear gloves.  Remember to keep those hands clean!  People leave germs everywhere with the hands.

When my grandad died,

My grandma said her life began........

She travelled far and wide.....

mind she did have 11 kids.....6 girls 5 boys....

The oldest is now 86

And the youngest 68.....

So her life was never her own .......

Popped off at 93

Bright as a button till the end.......

Great Lady miss her.....

I believe the average age in the west is

 70 for men 

80 for the ladies

I think the ladies cope better at losing a partner.....

It's genetic....they been doing it forever.....

ME163 wrote: Ok, there is no reason in Hell to change the level.  I had COVID 19 . it almost killed me.  If you get it even a mild case, It is hell on earth. Anyone who says to lower the level needs to have their head examined.

I'm sorry you were sick, ME, I hope you have recovered fully.

ViQueen24 wrote: Herman Cain just died.  So what was his cause of death?  A virus, his age, or his stubborn unwillingness to listen?

Herman Cain's death is being reported as Covid related.

I'd like to go on to say that Cobber lists elderly as 80+.  The WHO reports globally Covid deaths in that age group comprises roughly 22%.  I wouldn't call that the majority of deaths.  Just the highest in any demographic.  

Herman Cain just died.  So what was his cause of death?  A virus, his age, or his stubborn unwillingness to listen?

Oh and forgot to add, per the CDC (updated June 30):

Some people may have an increased risk for more serious complications from COVID-19 and should take measures to protect themselves.

When Covid first hit. There were a few here who ran the numbers. We got a rough R0 I think we pegged it at R2.5. I cant even remember as i've been so disinterested.

We were very concerned about the slate wiper. The initial reports were super scary. I don't think i slept for a few nights. I was data hungry and trawled the web endlessly to get accurate figures. The Chinese numbers were obviously falsified. The R0 was hard to tie down as a result. We knew essentially it was going to spread exponentially and be difficult to stop.

Then we had the cruise ships... It was a gift. This gave us an accurate CFR

A totally contained system where we could study the transmission. We knew all the data. Ages, Symptoms, Deaths(RIP) Etc.

I worked up a Case fatality Rate. 0.3%. There were many other doing the same. I published the numbers and method. I checked it by several other methods. I was confident in the figures. 

This is the thing however. Other virologists were doing exactly the same thing. Their numbers were coming in close to 0.3%. There was some variations, but similar ranges.  But all we kept hearing on the news was 3-5% death rate. 

From Italy i believe the media published a CFR of 13%. 

I'm waiting for someone to call Bull$hit, but it never came. The media let the public stew in a pot of fear. Every day more and more. I couldn't believe my eyes. They continue to this day to stoke fear. Your kids brains will explode. Ah your heart if F**ked.

So i'm a little jaded on the whole thing. I still call it a total beat up. My original figure of 0.3% is probably now even lower as treatment has gotten better. I haven't even looked. 

History will tell. I believe we will look back on this and say what were we thinking. It may take 20 years, but some where in a medical journal a little comment at the end of the page it will say powderpuff.

PS: elderly i meant 80-90

Evidence seems to be mounting of increase in problems of  under 65 having mild illness but long lasting after-effects, some perhaps permanent, we don't know yet.  Protecting only those we know are vulnerable but leave the rest to take their chances is rather like playing Russian Roulette.

WitchMisspelled wrote: carbon20 wrote: Now I'm in my 60s.... I like to think of elderly as 90+...... LMAO So when you're talking about "the majority" you're think you're talking about someone else.  SURPRISE!!!!

Sorry... I should not post past 8pm my time.  My vision issues are exacerbated because the brain needs sleep!  I got confused between you and Cobber! LOL

And FWIW, Cobber said very elderly... I consider anyone who lives past the average to be in the very elderly category.  I think that's like 82.  But I'm sure AI will correct me.