Pandemic Alert Level

Just my two cents...

I don't see mass hysteria here, but I'll admit the media (at least here in the U.S.) is a bit overblown for ratings purposes.  Time will tell if the CFR remains "minuscule".  It hasn't here in the U.S. and we have no idea about Latin America or the Middle East.  

Powderpuff?!?!?!  (God, I want an interrobang on my keyboard!)

Yes it is fairly safe for the young (probably, but it could still surprise us) but oldies like me and my Hubby are at huge risk.  Ok so we are neither young nor beautiful, but we matter deeply to each other and are genuinely scared..  True it has not killed that many yet, but it has barely started its "first wave".  Ask anyone who works in any medical setting.  They are overrun!  The only reason it is so small in effct so far, is the gargantuan efforts to control it.

Finally, every deqth counts.  EVERY death.  All people are someone's son/daughter/lover/parent or sibling.  

And in the States at least, "only" 1% of the population has been infected.  How 'bout in the rest of the world?  I think we ain't seen nothin' yet!  And as many have said, what happens in a few years, 5, 10, 20?  How many of those infected die of Covid-related complications?  And this virus right now is keeping people sick for months -- go on Facebook and read Conronavirus Survivor Corps.  I would call this virus a lot of things, but "powderpuff" ain't one of 'em!  Albert, keep it at 6, please!

The Spanish flu had a CFR of .3 until the second wave.  Then it sky rocketed.  We're not there yet, Cobber.   And your prediction of the very elderly comprising most of the cases was wrong.  Very wrong unless you consider people in their 40's and 50's very elderly.

The only thing that will stop this virus is a vaccine with a high enough efficacy to create herd immunity (70%) out of the vaccine starting gate. We can't even get a flu vaccine that effective in all the years they've been working on it. So it is unlikely.

I'll go on record by saying we will still be hearing about this after the U.S. elections in November in a very big way.  The only thing that could eclipse this story is a world-wide economic crash.  Even then, you'll still be hearing loads.  

I know I'm in a minority here. but I gotta say I side (mostly) with cobbler.  The vast majority of deaths are in older people (65+) and those with underlying conditions.  Yes, EVERY LIFE MATTERS and EVERY DEATH IS A PERSON.  In no way should discussing lower death rate or lower severity discount that fact that any death is sad and unfortunate,  However thousands of people die every day from a myriad reasons.  

We have not really seen a big reduction in this thing so I really wonder if there will be a second wave. Which is odd - because the aerosol spread USUALLY means spread drops in the summer (humidity will cause many droplets to fall to the ground quickly) climate. Not really seeing that with COVID so it's either behaving very differently than other aerosol spread viruses or may have another serious transmission rate that is being overlooked/discounted (particle - especially fecal oriented - was an initial vector but seems to not be discussed much anymore). 

While the reported positive cases are not large (relatively speaking) yet, the CDC admits that the actual spread of the virus is 10 to 24 times the positive cases.  So it is out there with very mild cases way more than is being reported.

CDC has also been adjusting death rate lower - I think the current best estimate is .6%  While definitely higher than seasonal flu, it is VASTLY lower than Spanish Flu or other serious pandemics. 

I guess if you are comparing this to "the flu" then yeah this is a big deal....but comparing it to a serious pandemic...a "bird flu" type pandemic that many (like me have prepped for over the decades, well this is not that. And I'm really beginning to wonder of the extreme lock down measures have really made that huge a difference.  Flatten the curve sure....but this will burn through the population but is the cure doing more damage to people in the long run than the disease? 

Personally my DEFCON has dropped from 6 (where I was too in Feb/March) to probably a 3 or 4 at present......

Just my two cents  :-)

WitchMisspelled wrote: We're not talking about demographics.  Cobber mentioned old.  65 is not all that old.  Not these days. But thank you for the insight on what you consider elderly.

No he said elderly and you said elderly do you need to go back and see what he said and you said LOL. And it's not what I consider elderly that matters, I guess the legal and medical definitions of elderly aren't good enough for you since it shows you'r wrong. Changed your mind on calling out the CDC stats huh. LOL And are you really trying (and trying badly I might add ) to deny the fact the elderly are the majority negatively affected by COVID and requiring hospitalization as well as the most represented demographic (yes we are talking a demographic) in COVID deaths in the US?  

The Spanish flu did start by killing elderly and infants, for the most part.  Yes there were a lot of deaths among soldiers in the first wave, but it didn't kill 20 to 40 in a big way on the home front until the second wave.  

I hesitate to point this out, but could you be desensitized, could we all be desensitized because of Hollywood disaster/apocalypse movies?  

Now I'm in my 60s....

I like to think of elderly as 90+......

LMAO

Good post ViQueen.  That's my point.  One can treat the "elderly" as disposable risk statistic, but with what's happening to younger patients, even those who don't get sick enough to be hospitalized, this illness is devastating.  

WitchMisspelled wrote: The Spanish flu did start by killing elderly and infants, for the most part.  Yes there were a lot of deaths among soldiers in the first wave, but it didn't kill 20 to 40 in a big way on the home front until the second wave.   I hesitate to point this out, but could you be desensitized, could we all be desensitized because of Hollywood disaster/apocalypse movies?

Yep.  +1, Witchy.

If we go with the .3%. 

There are roughly 345,000,000 Americans.

Countless epidemiologists have said roughly 70% of Americans will eventually get the virus. So: 241,500,000

So 241,500,000 X 0.3% = 724,500  dead Americans.

Playing devil's advocate here - 724,500 American may die....but MILLIONS of Americans are out of work, may lose their homes, have marriages and lives that are being destroyed, are depressed, suicidal, turning to crime and drugs and violence, 

If you are over 65 and/or have underlying health conditions this is definitely a serious, concerning virus.  If you are in your teens, 20s, 30s, etc then the way we are reacting to this virus is definitely a serious, concerning consequence. 

Are we doing the right thing by protecting everyone from the virus when we should be focused on protecting those most at risk?

Exactly, Witchy!  As this virus mutates and evolves, we must evolve with it.  We can't let our perceptions be set in stone, or our responses set in concrete.  If we had treated this virus like a war enemy, and acted like we do with anyone we are at war with, we'd have been far better off.  Never underestimate, and be prepared for anything.  Gather intelligence, keep gathering intelligence, and be prepared to switch strategies on a moment's notice.  Develop lots of different weapons.  Have no mercy!

This virus is novel - but Corona viruses are not. Is this any different than when a new variant of influenza shows up?  Or a new variant of other Corona viruses?  Or other new/novel viruses (or bacterial infections for that matter).  As we all know there are new "bugs" coming out all the time. Stay aware, study, investigate, sure.  but it seems like the REACTION to COVID  has moved to a pretty extreme level considering what it is currently doing vs what we worry it MIGHT DO.  There are many diseases that MIGHT change and evolve and mutate into something bad....but that's kind of life.

Maybe this is just a case of how different people perceive risk....I don't know..... 

Wow just stumbled upon this. Almost exactly what i was saying...

https://www.zerohedge.com/political/biggest-fraud-ever-part-1-hocus-science-behind-lockdowns

Ok, there is no reason in Hell to change the level.  I had COVID 19 . it almost killed me.  If you get it even a mild case, It is hell on earth. Anyone who says to lower the level needs to have their head examined. 

cobber wrote: Wow just stumbled upon this. Almost exactly what i was saying... https://www.zerohedge.com/political/biggest-fraud-ever-part-1-hocus-science-behind-lockdowns

I wouldn't trust a site who's manifesto is to, among other things, "Widen the scope of financial, economic and political information to the investing public."  As good as they might be and financial analysis, I doubt actual science that contradicts their agenda comes into it.  But it's very good to know your priority is your pocketbook rather than lives.  

And just so you know, this 20+ year veteran of Investment Banking and Law predicts a stock market meltdown sometime between November and January when the Fed stops bolstering the stock market under the direction of this administration.  Better run to cash.  Avoid Precious Metal futures.  

WitchMisspelled wrote: WitchMisspelled wrote: carbon20 wrote: Now I'm in my 60s.... I like to think of elderly as 90+...... LMAO So when you're talking about "the majority" you're think you're talking about someone else.  SURPRISE!!!! Sorry... I should not post past 8pm my time.  My vision issues are exacerbated because the brain needs sleep!  I got confused between you and Cobber! LOL And FWIW, Cobber said very elderly... I consider anyone who lives past the average to be in the very elderly category.  I think that's like 82.  But I'm sure AI will correct me.

LMAO

I was wondering what it was about, I reread it, went back and looked at my previous posts,put it down to what you said, 

I've done that before...lol

I post on my cellphone,

So I can get a bit confused sometimes......

Usually after a few beers!!!!! And a stressful day 😉

Take care all.....

Possibly, but I will have the same reaction as Queen Victoria.

No not:  "We are not amused!"  but:  "My life as a happy woman is over."  We may have to endure it, but it is a terrifying prospect.

Today's Covid lungs explode story comes from... 

Every media outlet around the world in unison. See links

CNN , 7NEWS , Today , ktla , ctvnews, , dailymail

So this girl Mayra Ramirez had a double lung transplant due to Covid. Her lungs were going to explode. Doctors gave her an emergency transplant. 

You must take Covid seriously is the message. 

Turns out she was immunocompromised and taking immunosuppressants too. She was high risk. The media either failed to mention or gleemed over it.

Here's a more accurate article

Autoimmunewarrior.org

Powderpuff.

That can be true.  It all depends on what you expect of the mask.

If you want total personal protection, don't go out!  A mask will decrease your contagion risk by around 10%; - and that is if it is a good one correctly worn.

If you want to politely protect others - as all moral people should - at the very least wear a mask, better still stay home.  The mask will offer other people about 90% protection from your germs.

My figures are just estimates, but hopefully give an idea of how it works (sort of).  The overall idea is to reduce the R0.  Individual total protection is almost impossible.

Gloves, goggles, masks and all the other panoply of PPE, vary between 'utterly worthless' and 'greatly reducing your risks' mostly depending on how good your protocols for their use are.  Gloves, if unwashed,  transmit the virus just as well as hands do.  Unbroken skin is already impervious to covid 19.  It enters the body through orifaces (such as eyes, nose or mouth) usually when they are touched with contaminated hands.  Contaminated gloves or masks can both transmit the bug just as well.

The US has the highest covid figures in the world. But if you work out the per/capita rate, the UK is even worse!

Our PM nearly died of covid19.  He occasionally dons a mask briefly.  Gives you loads of confidence, that does!