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PANDEMIC ALERT LEVEL
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Tracking the next pandemic: Avian Flu Talk

Covid over in 30 days

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carbon20 View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote carbon20 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Topic: Covid over in 30 days
    Posted: April 24 2021 at 4:26pm

Your very welcome......😉


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Marcus Aurelius
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote WitchMisspelled Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 24 2021 at 3:47pm

Awwww thanks guys!  That made me feel all warm and fuzzy!    

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote ViQueen24 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 24 2021 at 8:57am

+3.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote Technophobe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 23 2021 at 9:57am

Ditto.

How do you tell if a politician is lying?
His lips or pen are moving.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote carbon20 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 23 2021 at 5:44am

Originally posted by WitchMisspelled WitchMisspelled wrote:

I've been away from the forum for a while and am surprised people are still feeding into this. But then, stress needs a vent. Even before I stepped away, I stopped commenting on cobber's opinions.  Why? Because cobber has no skin in this game.  He and his are not in any danger.  He's an armchair critic.  After being up close and personal to the 1993 Trade Center bombing and subsequently 9/11, I learned a lot about armchair critics and their ease and spreading BS.  It's just that. And it's inconsequential.

Missed you WM,

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote WitchMisspelled Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 23 2021 at 5:42am

I've been away from the forum for a while and am surprised people are still feeding into this. But then, stress needs a vent. Even before I stepped away, I stopped commenting on cobber's opinions.  Why? Because cobber has no skin in this game.  He and his are not in any danger.  He's an armchair critic.  After being up close and personal to the 1993 Trade Center bombing and subsequently 9/11, I learned a lot about armchair critics and their ease and spreading BS.  It's just that. And it's inconsequential.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote carbon20 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 17 2021 at 3:24pm

The Associated Press: Worldwide COVID-19 death toll tops a staggering 3 million.

https://apnews.com/ccad03475cfd5c846f11189a8bfd99c7

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Technophobe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 06 2021 at 6:11am

'And https://www.avianflutalk.com/three-million-covid-deaths_topic43843_post306182.html#306182 which seems to show it is accelerating and worsening.

How do you tell if a politician is lying?
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Technophobe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 04 2021 at 7:09am
How do you tell if a politician is lying?
His lips or pen are moving.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote carbon20 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 02 2021 at 1:41am

DW (English): The coronavirus pandemic is far from over.

https://dw.com/p/3eO3O?maca=en-gk-volltext-newsstand-topstories-en-10709-xml-googlenews

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 01 2021 at 10:13pm

It would be "nice" if we could avoid a PPG-Permanent Pandemic Genocide...Going for "herd-immunity" in this Covid19 crisis was a bad choice. The poor are paying the price dying in the thousends each day...

There are ways to stop it. Covid over in 30 days is a matter of choices...A 30 day almost global lockdown most likely would bring the R0 far under 1-also do a lot to stop variants. Global vaccinations could limit disease, spread of infections...

The only reason "we" are NOT stopping Covid is greed !

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Technophobe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 01 2021 at 5:23pm

There are five more ways of looking at this, Cobber:

The disease maims some people.  We don't know what percentage of those people will never fully recover.

Yes, some of those over 70s with co morbidities would have died anyway.  But not all and every life matters.

The more people who have the virus, the more chances it gets to become nastier.  

The current death toll is lowered by the social distancing, hygene, medicine and masking.  It would be far, far worse without it.

The toll on health services is deadly enough.  I know people who have lost kith and kin to the virus, but even more who have lost people to the strain on the medical services.  Either way, folk are dead.


It is also a slow and horrible way to die.

'And it's not over yet!

How do you tell if a politician is lying?
His lips or pen are moving.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote ViQueen24 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 01 2021 at 9:39am

Yes, and I think that, even though the US has a higher percentage of cases than the rest of the world, the situation is still the same everywhere.  Dutch Josh's Scenarios highlights the possibility that vaccinating against the original strain of Covid may enable other more contagious and virulent strains to emerge, and they may be alot more difficult to vaccinate against.  Contrary to Cobber's statistic, largely due to shutdowns of varying degrees, distancing and PPEs, we have succeeded in mitigating the spread of Covid, so the whole population has not been exposed to it.  We cannot vaccinate our way out of this totally.  We are still going to have to use distancing, PPEs, contact tracing, and occasional rolling shutdowns in our auxiliary toolkit, while hopefully succeeding in creating booster vaccines in order to guard against variants, recombinations, etc.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote carbon20 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 31 2021 at 4:03pm

Oppps sorry ,

it would be a little crowded....

Hard to social distance....lol

Take care all 😷😉



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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Little House Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 31 2021 at 3:07pm

Originally posted by carbon20 carbon20 wrote:

Covid infections in the USA are 30million with 500k dead,

Given the population of the USA is 3028 million......

A lot more could be infected.....alot more could die....

So it's not over won't be for years.....

Take care all 😷😉

Your finger hit an extra key there Carbon. ;)

The population of the US is 328 million, but still lots of room for more infections.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote carbon20 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 31 2021 at 2:54pm

Covid infections in the USA are 30million with 500k dead,

Given the population of the USA is 3028 million......

A lot more could be infected.....alot more could die....

So it's not over won't be for years.....

Take care all 😷😉

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote carbon20 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 31 2021 at 2:43pm

CNN : A dangerous coronavirus variant is wreaking havoc in parts of Europe. Experts fear US could be next.

http://rss.cnn.com/~r/rss/cnn_topstories/~3/PuZ5ulwTJXE/index.html

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote carbon20 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 31 2021 at 2:42pm

New Scientist: Brazil faces health system collapse as covid-19 cases skyrocket.

https://www.newscientist.com/article/mg24933283-500-brazil-faces-health-system-collapse-as-covid-19-cases-skyrocket/

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote carbon20 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 31 2021 at 2:41pm

BBC News - Covid: France schools to close under third lockdown

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-56597319

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote ViQueen24 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 31 2021 at 8:12am

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote cobber Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 31 2021 at 8:06am

Perspective. 8 billion people on earth. 

2.8 million died from Covid. Most were comorbid and over 70. 

That's 1 in 2860


If 2860 people are in a room and every year one person died. 

Would you be concerned?  


Just remember 293 people in that room would be over 70. 



Covid is over. Its under control. There is nothing to fear anymore. Its a powderpuff. 


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote carbon20 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 28 2021 at 5:14pm
Everything we hear is an opinion, not a fact. Everything we see is a perspective, not the truth.🖖

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote carbon20 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 28 2021 at 5:10pm
Everything we hear is an opinion, not a fact. Everything we see is a perspective, not the truth.🖖

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote carbon20 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 28 2021 at 4:24pm

CNN : Signs of collapse across Brazil as Covid spirals out of control. Bolsonaro seems to have little response.

http://rss.cnn.com/~r/rss/cnn_topstories/~3/J_izdHnXPGg/index.html

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote ViQueen24 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 28 2021 at 7:58am

Guess it's hard to see when you're down the 🐇hole.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote cobber Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 28 2021 at 6:29am

Covid was a political con job and you all got dusted.

I hear Crow is tasty.




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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote ViQueen24 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 23 2021 at 5:12pm

Lol, I don't know about all that, but it's sweet of you to say, Techno!

I feel pretty strongly about it, especially in light of stories like this one, the story of the late Texas Roadhouse restaurant CEO:

https://www.aol.com/tinnitus-covid-19-connection-explained-011631547.html

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Technophobe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 23 2021 at 10:51am

But, you made your point well enough to be worth a second post, Vi.

How do you tell if a politician is lying?
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote ViQueen24 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 23 2021 at 9:58am

Oops, sorry, don't know why that posted twice.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote ViQueen24 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 23 2021 at 9:56am

BUT, it cripples many folks with post-Covid-related illness that send people back in the hospital, keeps them out of work, and costs tax dollars.  A goodly portion of those people will never return to work.  A percentage of them will never be the same, as indicated upthread.

BUT, we don't know what surprises Covid has for us coming down the pike, ala Shingles, Post-Polio Syndrome, Encephalitis Lethargica, etc.  You will not know the cost of this disease potentially for 20, 50, 100 years.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote ViQueen24 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 23 2021 at 9:55am

BUT, it cripples many folks with post-Covid-related illness that send people back in the hospital, keeps them out of work, and costs tax dollars.  A goodly portion of those people will never return to work.  A percentage of them will never be the same, as indicated upthread.

BUT, we don't know what surprises Covid has for us coming down the pike, ala Shingles, Post-Polio Syndrome, Encephalitis Lethargica, etc.  You will not know the cost of this disease potentially for 20, 50, 100 years.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Technophobe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 23 2021 at 9:03am

I'm with Roni.

Yes, It has not killed so many, but there is more than one 'but' to that statement:


But, it is not over yet. Those plagues are.

But, those historical plagues did not have the interventions of modern medical knowledge, neither in treatment, nor quarrantine, nor distancing.

But, it is still mutating. It has lots of other coronaviruses to reassort with too.

But, it hospitalises a significant proportion of its hosts for months.

But, it has other hosts.  The only one known to share that trait is the black death.


We have vaccines, yes, but without strict controls it could rapidly get so much worse.

How do you tell if a politician is lying?
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote roni3470 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 22 2021 at 9:25am

What I meant was that it IS real and for those that thought it was going to end after the election, well hopefully they see now that the virus is real.  

NOW is the Season to Know

that Everything you Do

is Sacred
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Please don't misquote me. I said the virus is a Powderpuff. And I'm correct. It is a powderpuff. 0.03% is nothing!!!!


The over reaction to the virus has been the catastrophe. 




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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 21 2021 at 9:51pm

With Covid19-variants now (most likely) spreading in other-non human-hosts Covid will be here to stay...just like the flu...but bringing very different, much more severe symptoms ! "The virus has won !"

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote carbon20 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 21 2021 at 7:53pm

[QUOTE=roni3470]

Now that it is 5 months after the election, and covid is still here but also having new waves overseas, I sure hope anyone that thought this was political feels somewhat different now.  

[/QUOT

sorry Roni3470......

Don't hold your breath on that one.......

I've been watching your news , people still without masks , partying without a care in the world......

Sheer madness.....

This virus is not going anywhere fast...

Take care all 😷😉



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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote roni3470 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 21 2021 at 6:16pm

Now that it is 5 months after the election, and covid is still here but also having new waves overseas, I sure hope anyone that thought this was political feels somewhat different now.  

NOW is the Season to Know

that Everything you Do

is Sacred
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote ViQueen24 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 07 2021 at 8:36am

We cannot blame Biden for the Covid/testing fatigue that is manifest and ubiquitous worldwide.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote ksc Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 07 2021 at 6:03am

Testing is down because cases are down, but it isn't proportional. The US was doing 2 million tests a day at the top of the spike. Currently they are doing 1.5 million a day.

Cases were as high as 250,000 a day during the spike, now cases are down to 50,000 a day. So testing hasn't dropped anywhere near the level that cases have dropped.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Usk Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 07 2021 at 4:16am

Latest Dr Campbellvideo says reason US numbers appear to go down is testing is way down!!!

Thank you Biden!!  Before ads ran on TV all the time about where to get tested. Now they are done as well as street signs saying Covid testing done here. Interesting 

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote carbon20 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 07 2021 at 1:48am

I really don't know the upshot to all of this ,

I don't think countries that have had lockdowns, such as the UK,can survive another long lockdown,the population will go crazy..... 

 the governments have let the virus run rampant instead of complete hard lockdowns aka New Zealand,means it's all to late .......


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote EdwinSm, Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 06 2021 at 10:24pm

Carbon,  I am trying to get my head around what the "slow burn C-19" will mean... 


I guess booster shots each year is a good bet (at least it should only be one shot not two), if one is in a rich enough country.

Trade and travel will not stop (sorry Josh, the polititians won't listen to you on this), but I guess they will be at a much lower level than before the pandemic started, so we need to take holidays closer to home.  It also means that those of us with international families will be less able to travel to see them.  

However, I see elevated death rates (ie higher than a bad flu year, but maybe not as high as the rates we will hit this year) for years out.  This means lower life expectancy and in some "western" countries a faster (but still slow) rate of population decrease.   But statistics out of many populous countries (eg India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, China, nearly the whole of Africa) are so poor it is hard to see what would happen in those countries which hold a significant amount of the world's population.

Both my parents lived to 89 years old, but it is looking like I will not get to that exalted age as the risks from this virus will increase year by year.   

Babies and children are growing up without the usual socialization, so I wonder what emotional problems that will provide years down the line.  I also wonder if that will push an even greater level of isolation and what that means for society to hold together.   [These areas may take decades before the problems really start to show.]


Maybe a better title for the thread would be "Covid over in 30 years".

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carbon20 View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote carbon20 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 06 2021 at 2:11pm

To  me this Covid 19 virus is no different than the other coronavirus we live with every year,that one is call the common cold,

I imagine when that first came amongst the human population the result was pretty much the same as what is happening with this virus,it will take years for us to develop "herd immunity" if it ever happens......

A C19  variant will keep circling the world,as long as people travel........

This is not rocket science,it's not new to the human population,it's just we as a modern society have never had to face a true pandemic,

As Jacksdad said a good while ago....."slow burn" something I never imagined......

If anything we will be having booster shots every year,

the problem is in all of this is ,

1,Countries with big populations slow to roll out vaccine,or with no vaccine available for the masses

2,the circulation of C19 in animals......

That's how I see things....... Hope I'm very wrong.....

Take care all 😷😉


Everything we hear is an opinion, not a fact. Everything we see is a perspective, not the truth.🖖

Marcus Aurelius
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Tabitha111 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 06 2021 at 9:44am

Impact on forecast of future case level
Date: Wed 3 Mar 2021

https://www.reuters.com/article/health-coronavirus-variants/insight-when-will-it-end-how-a-changing-virus-is-reshaping-scientists-views-on-covid-19-idUSL5N2L14JR
Highlights:

Chris Murray, a University of Washington disease expert whose
projections on COVID-19 infections and deaths are closely followed
worldwide, is changing his assumptions about the course of the
pandemic.



But in the last month [February 2021], data from a vaccine trial in
South Africa showed not only that a rapidly spreading coronavirus
variant could dampen the effect of the vaccine, it could also evade
natural immunity in people who had been previously infected.
 "I
couldn't sleep" after seeing the data, Murray, , told
Reuters. "When will it end?" he asked himself, referring to the
pandemic.


But, they [scientists], say data in recent weeks on new variants from South Africa
and Brazil has undercut that optimism.

They now believe that
SARS-CoV-2 will not only remain with us as an endemic virus,
continuing to circulate in communities, but will likely cause a
significant burden of illness and death for years to come.

As a result, the scientists said, people could expect to continue to
take measures such as routine mask-wearing and avoiding crowded places
during COVID-19 surges, especially for people at high risk.

Even after
vaccination, "I still would want to wear a mask if there was a variant
out there," Dr. Anthony Fauci, chief medical advisor to US President
Joe Biden, said in an interview
. "All you need is one little flick of
a variant (sparking) another surge, and there goes your prediction"
about when life gets back to normal.

'A man who does not think and plan long ahead will find trouble right at his door.'
--Confucius

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote EdwinSm, Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 03 2021 at 7:30am

Not nearly over in Brazil....Brazil's daily deaths reach all-time high 

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-56264425

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