Tracking the next pandemic: Avian Flu Talk |
WHO says 10% of world has CoVid. |
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AI
Adviser Group Joined: January 21 2020 Status: Offline Points: 8850 |
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Posted: October 08 2020 at 5:02pm |
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The head of emergencies at the World Health Organization said Monday its “best estimates” indicate that roughly 1 in 10 people worldwide may have been infected by the coronavirus — more than 20 times the number of confirmed cases — and warned of a difficult period ahead. Dr. Michael Ryan, speaking to a special session of the WHO’s 34-member executive board focusing on COVID-19, said the figures vary from urban to rural, and between different groups, but that ultimately it means “the vast majority of the world remains at risk.” He said the pandemic would continue to evolve, but that tools exist to suppress transmission and save lives. “Many deaths have been averted and many more lives can be protected," Ryan said. He was flanked by his boss, WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, who minutes earlier led a moment of silence to honor victims as well as round of applause for the health workers who have strived to save them. Ryan said southeast Asia faced a surge in cases, Europe and the eastern Mediterranean were seeing an increase in deaths, while the situations in Africa and the Western Pacific were “rather more positive.” "Our current best estimates tell us that about 10 percent of the global population may have been infected by this virus,” Ryan told attendees from member governments who make up the executive board and provide much of its funding. The estimate — which would amount to more than 760 million people based on a current world population of about 7.6 billion — far outstrips the number of confirmed cases as tallied by both WHO and Johns Hopkins University, now more than 35 million worldwide. Experts have long said that the number of confirmed cases greatly underestimates the true figure. The comments came during a special session of the executive board to consider the follow-up to its previous meeting, in May, that passed a resolution to look into the world's — and WHO's — response to the pandemic. Ryan warned that the world was "now heading into a difficult period. The disease continues to spread. It is on the rise in many parts of the world.” https://sg.news.yahoo.com/says-10-world-population-may-115400640.html |
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AI
Adviser Group Joined: January 21 2020 Status: Offline Points: 8850 |
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The global population is roughly 7.8 billion people, if 10% have been infected that is 780 million cases. The global death toll currently attributed to Sars-Cov-2 infections is 1,061,539. That’s an infection fatality rate of roughly or 0.14%. Right in line with seasonal flu and the predictions of many experts from all around the world. |
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“Facts don't care about your feelings.”
― Ben Shapiro |
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AI
Adviser Group Joined: January 21 2020 Status: Offline Points: 8850 |
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So now the shills will come on and say the WHO is wrong and the CDC is wrong, everyone is wrong. Only they won't have any facts to back up their claims. Reality deniers clinging to a false narrative. |
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“Facts don't care about your feelings.”
― Ben Shapiro |
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Technophobe
Assistant Admin Joined: January 16 2014 Location: Scotland Status: Offline Points: 88450 |
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No arguments on the covid figures. It is about as deadly as seasonal flu. But, it is far more contagious. That is why, whereas flu killed about 300 people in the last season here in the Uk, covid has killed 42 thousand - and the figures would have been far higher without the lockdowns, social distancing, extra hygene measures and masks; none of which were adopted for the flu. The deadliness of a bug is a compound of its CFR and its infectiousness. OH! and the CFR is only one consideration, those left with long-term problems seem to be three times as numerous as the deaths. |
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KiwiMum
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There was an interesting article by a British epidemologist recently who said that he expected there to be a Covid disability from now on in. He meant that the people who are left with permanent damage from Covid would need a disability status as some of them had been left disabled by it, much the same as Polio did for a generation in the 40's and 50's. If those statistics are true then it really will affect a large number of people permanently. Scary. |
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Those who got it wrong, for whatever reason, may feel defensive and retrench into a position that doesn’t accord with the facts.
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AI
Adviser Group Joined: January 21 2020 Status: Offline Points: 8850 |
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And by "far more contagious" you mean not quite double the RO of the flu yet with an IFR of .14 according to the WHO's infection estimate. |
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― Ben Shapiro |
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WitchMisspelled
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I think what I find even more frightening is there is evidence that asymptomatic may also be left with permanent or lingering damage. At least if someone was symptomatic/diagnosed doctors can trace back where the disability came from. With asymptomatic they can't. |
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Technophobe
Assistant Admin Joined: January 16 2014 Location: Scotland Status: Offline Points: 88450 |
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Again half the truth. The Infection fatality rate is only half the story, with more than 3 times as many suffering long-term problems. It also does not reflect the near-death-sentence it means for the already ill (cancer, diabetes, heart disease, lung disease). Changing the words "death rate" to CFR to IFR does not affect the real picture. The CDC have published a whole discussion on it. https://www.who.int/news-room/commentaries/detail/estimating-mortality-from-covid-19 Most importantly, that is not the point. The R0 of SARS2 is CURRENTLY 1.1 here (which is NOT under control) and that is as a result of control measures. Without social distancing, hygene protocols, masks and lockdowns, it rises back up to 3+. Superspreaders raise it even higher locally. There are lies, DAMN lies and statistics. I wish to add: "Cherry picked information" to the nasty end of that list. |
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How do you tell if a politician is lying?
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Technophobe
Assistant Admin Joined: January 16 2014 Location: Scotland Status: Offline Points: 88450 |
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I might add that a single tiny point higher in R0, can change a controlled disease to a pandemic or end it. R0 = 1.00000, disease remains stable in population. R0 = 0.99999, disease dies out. R0 = 1.00001, disease spreads. Having DOUBLE the R0 EVEN AFTER CONTROL MEASURES is disasterous. |
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How do you tell if a politician is lying?
His lips or pen are moving. |
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WitchMisspelled
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How many times I have I said if the books are cooked long enough, one can make the numbers say anything one wants. One can focus on one aspect, but miss the overall picture. I think that's what's making most of us crazy: The apparent missing of the forest because of those focused on trees. Not all trees, but only one species of tree. |
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AI
Adviser Group Joined: January 21 2020 Status: Offline Points: 8850 |
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“Facts don't care about your feelings.”
― Ben Shapiro |
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AI
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And let me add are any countries basing any of their policies in whole or in part on the long term effects of COVID? If it's half the equation as you say and such a concern then that would or should be the case. But it's not, is it. Is EVERY country just missing that half of the equation? |
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Technophobe
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That is what cherry-picking means. Not using fake, wrong or inaccurate data, but using correct information, out of context, giving a false understanding by omission. The suggestion is that the action is deliberate, which may be unfair to you, AI. But in fairness to the rest of us, you do have a history of it. |
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How do you tell if a politician is lying?
His lips or pen are moving. |
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AI
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“Facts don't care about your feelings.”
― Ben Shapiro |
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carbon20
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Considering this is a "Novel" virus and we still trying to combat it affectivley, I doubt many countries are even thinking about "Long Covid" Some haven't even got a grip on what's happening right now, Let alone in 1,2 ,5 years...... And we are a reactive speices not a proactive...... Let's face it attention span of most is about 10/15 minutes,aka.tv adds,and shows like G.O.T./Westworld switching narratives every 8 mins or so. That's why there are Preppers and those that laughed at us when we stocked up on masks ,food etc..... Who's laughing now...... So no I don't think most governments have looked to the future........ And I'm not saying they unaware of it........ |
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Everything we hear is an opinion, not a fact. Everything we see is a perspective, not the truth.🖖
Marcus Aurelius |
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carbon20
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Just found this... . The Independent: Analysis: The NHS is not ready to tackle the debilitating effects of ‘long Covid’. |
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Everything we hear is an opinion, not a fact. Everything we see is a perspective, not the truth.🖖
Marcus Aurelius |
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AI
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― Ben Shapiro |
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carbon20
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AI why are you on this site all, you never contribute anything of any use.......ever....... |
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Everything we hear is an opinion, not a fact. Everything we see is a perspective, not the truth.🖖
Marcus Aurelius |
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AI
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“Facts don't care about your feelings.”
― Ben Shapiro |
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carbon20
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Fact: 220 thousand dead Americans.....still rising.......stay safe all 😷😉 |
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Everything we hear is an opinion, not a fact. Everything we see is a perspective, not the truth.🖖
Marcus Aurelius |
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jacksdad
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From what I can see, the vast majority of your recent posts involve you quoting someone, followed by a snarky one liner that usually includes an insult. I get that you haven't been here that long, but you need to understand that new members berating moderators and long standing contributors is not acceptable and won't be tolerated. Consider yourself on notice. |
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"Buy it cheap. Stack it deep"
"Any community that fails to prepare, with the expectation that the federal government will come to the rescue, will be tragically wrong." Michael Leavitt, HHS Secretary. |
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Technophobe
Assistant Admin Joined: January 16 2014 Location: Scotland Status: Offline Points: 88450 |
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Just to add my twopennyworth to that, AI . You have posted quite a bit of science, Being science it is never simply inaccurate. But you do post things out of context and as your posts are usually either cherry-picked, or an outlier science study (or both) they are often misleading as well. I strongly suspect, that is deliberate on your part. I don't care what you call me (although I do get offended when you are rude to others and this site has standards in politeness as well.) and I appreciate science based posts. But your (probably deliberate) attempts to mislead with 'spin' worry me greatly. This site is here to inform and guide; which it has successfully done for years. It gives the best information we have, to as many people as we can. We genuinely care about our members. Although we are lucky enough to have some who do, most of our members do not have degrees in science or appropriate qualifications in medicine, epidemiology, mathematical modeling, nursing, virology or the other apposite sciences. So when you post 'spun' information, you are working counter to our goals. We simply want our members to be well informed enough to protect themselves and those around them. Posts such as your outlier study in mask-wearing work counter to this. [The only reason I abandoned that particular argument was your insistance on having the last word and the, almost rabid, promotion of the only science-based argument (albeit from a good source) that argued counter to the majority opinion (which , I might add, also all came from reputable and respected sources,) all of which drew attention away from other news-worthy posts published at the same time.] So I am also watching you. |
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How do you tell if a politician is lying?
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KiwiMum
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Well said Jacksdad and Techno. AI is too aggressive and he seems to be looking for the slightest thing to take offense over. Any mention of the US, or Trump in a negative light (and frankly it's hard to find a positive thing to say about the man) and he flies off the handle with insults. He's intimidating and unpleasant. As you rightly pointed out Techno, he has to have the last word but interestingly he'll drop a thread if anyone agrees with him so I think he's only here to troll other people. I don't think anyone would miss him if he left because he doesn't contribute in the spirit of sharing info that could benefit us all, he only shares to knock people down. |
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Those who got it wrong, for whatever reason, may feel defensive and retrench into a position that doesn’t accord with the facts.
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WitchMisspelled
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Well said, KiwiMum. Technophobe is well aware of my opinion on AI's trolling. I'll leave it at that. |
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AI
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“Facts don't care about your feelings.”
― Ben Shapiro |
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AI
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I seem to recall earlier on in this pandemic someone calling this place an echo chamber and then flouncing off. Seemed a bit overboard at the time, but some months on seems it's strikingly accurate. Does seem to be groupthink and hive minded, not all but most. And look the crew that campaigned to run off Flumom show's up on cue. Interesting pattern there. What are the odds of that happening? LOL Any bets on if it happens again? |
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Technophobe
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We remain polite and respectful, even when we dissagree. Because we are all here to help, encourage and protect each other. Why are you here? |
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How do you tell if a politician is lying?
His lips or pen are moving. |
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AI
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Take this thread for example. The WHO states they estimate 10% of the world has CoVid. So taking that estimate and the current deaths attributed to CoVid and we come out at .14% about the seasonal flu death rate. Seems that is GOOD NEWS!! A virus is less deadly than thought by a factor of 4. Yet no one seems to want good news. Why is that? That is extremely odd. And the information I posted from studies and articles is not misinformed or misinformation but validated science and some of it has been peer reviewed and some has not as of yet. Take the mask studies I cited which most were done prior to CoVid and clearly were not politicized because that drama didn't exist yet when those studies were done. Yet you dismissed those objective findings out of hand for studies that were politically subjective and relied on the words "may" "might" "could' in their findings. Follow the science right LOL Anyway I digress it's about information and science. Who knew it was primarily billed as preppers site? LOL |
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AI
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Technophobe
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I don't think that was you AI Like I said, Loads of posts, nothing constructive. Now answer the question. |
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How do you tell if a politician is lying?
His lips or pen are moving. |
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AI
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“Facts don't care about your feelings.”
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AI
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[Moderator warning: graphic content] Maybe a nice video on how to gut a deer or an elk would be constructive. Being a prepper site and all and I doubt very few here actually harvest and kill their own food. Maybe that would be constructive and if SHTF gonna be something needed to know. Deer are easy, elk are tougher as they are way bigger, bears not too hard as are cougars. And yes cougar actually tastes pretty good. A nice cougar ham and lima bean soup is pretty good! Constructive enough? Maybe how to snare animals next huh? Cause all that stored up food is going to run out sooner or later and it's best to supplement your provisions before you do. And passive hunting is always a good bet. |
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“Facts don't care about your feelings.”
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ViQueen24
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I think a move to General Prepping Tips might be in order for that last post. Mods? |
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Technophobe
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Your own point AI, that you keep stressing - repeatedly, is that opinion does not count, only scientific evidence. You mentioned the 'possibility' of airborne transmission on the 6th February in an article about antivirals 2. The confirmation of this was posted by Albert On 10th February 1 . But you made no effort to bring your speculation to anyone's attention; it was even posted under the title 'Coronavirus Showing Resistance To Antivirals'. Albert on the other hand, made a big issue of it, because it helps people to know this - and that is why we are here. Also, your attempt at an offensive video is both a failure (we are preppers) and inappropriate. All of which brings me back to the same question: "Why are you here? " Because it looks to me as if the only answer is points scoring. As a point of interest, I told everyone it would be airborne back in January3. I still think Albert deserves the credit. He drew attention to it. |
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How do you tell if a politician is lying?
His lips or pen are moving. |
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AI
Adviser Group Joined: January 21 2020 Status: Offline Points: 8850 |
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And I would hardly think any real prepper would find a video of how to process an animal to be offensive or inappropriate. Well perhaps maybe city preppers would. Although I personally think perhaps the gutless method of processing and quartering of an animal to be easier. Information of course, although that seems to be slowing down and suffering some degradation. |
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“Facts don't care about your feelings.”
― Ben Shapiro |
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Technophobe
Assistant Admin Joined: January 16 2014 Location: Scotland Status: Offline Points: 88450 |
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There are vegans on our memberlist, AI. Please consider their feelings. - Not I, I've butchered many deer. I'm not coloured either, but racist posts are anathema. I am female, but man-haters would be silenced. The idea is to avoid giving offence, not deliberately court it. So, as you are too buisy trying to insult me, to care about any other people's reactions, I repeat my question. Why are you here? |
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How do you tell if a politician is lying?
His lips or pen are moving. |
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Technophobe
Assistant Admin Joined: January 16 2014 Location: Scotland Status: Offline Points: 88450 |
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Ps. I know I'm annoying you, sorry for that, but a few commas would render your missives easier to read; I even appreciate Oxford ones. This would be the 'airborne' clincher if you wanted a scientifically backed post: https://www.avianflutalk.com/from-viroglogy-fact-of-the-day_topic41285_post287739.html?KW=microns#287739 . |
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How do you tell if a politician is lying?
His lips or pen are moving. |
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AI
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“Facts don't care about your feelings.”
― Ben Shapiro |
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KiwiMum
Chief Moderator Joined: May 29 2013 Status: Offline Points: 29680 |
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AI, why don't you stop spouting nonsense and simply answer the question. Why are you here? |
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Those who got it wrong, for whatever reason, may feel defensive and retrench into a position that doesn’t accord with the facts.
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WitchMisspelled
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Yes, AI. Answer the question. Either you'll confirm or dismiss those who have their opinion on that. No, I won't give mine until you answer the question. |
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jacksdad
Executive Admin Joined: September 08 2007 Location: San Diego Status: Offline Points: 47251 |
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FluMom was banned by Albert - the guy who pays the bills around here. it was unfortunate and I'm sorry it happened, but everyone here needs to understand that there are consequences to our actions, and there is a standard we hold people to. She had threatened to leave before, and I (and I'm sure others) had personally reached out to try to smooth things over on a couple of occasions because she was viewed as family around here. She chose to go down the road she did and ultimately burned every bridge, and Albert felt he had any choice but to pull the trigger. Members don't get banned often, but it was felt a line had been crossed at that point. This time around we have a member who doesn't play well with others, clearly believes he's always right and everyone else is wrong, feels it's appropriate to insult and call into question the intelligence of anyone that disagrees, and seems hellbent on bullying certain members (particularly women it seems) into silence because they hold an opposing view. Any push back you're feeling is a direct result of your inability to engage without rancor and insults. There's no crew or pattern, and you're no FluMom - please don't invoke her memory here with that kind of false equivalency. By the way - you do understand how juvenile the posting of that video was, right? We're a prepping site that's been active for fourteen years - you think hunting for food, and butchering animals hasn't been covered already? Save yourself the time and trouble and check the archives before you feel the need to bring us up to speed on anything. |
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"Buy it cheap. Stack it deep"
"Any community that fails to prepare, with the expectation that the federal government will come to the rescue, will be tragically wrong." Michael Leavitt, HHS Secretary. |
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Technophobe
Assistant Admin Joined: January 16 2014 Location: Scotland Status: Offline Points: 88450 |
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Again, agreed. Flu mum was a real loss. I still miss her. But standards are just that, standards. If I spouted insults or racisim, I would expect to go the same way. I would not expect to be missed as much. |
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How do you tell if a politician is lying?
His lips or pen are moving. |
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KiwiMum
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Bloody well said Jacksdad. |
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Those who got it wrong, for whatever reason, may feel defensive and retrench into a position that doesn’t accord with the facts.
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AI
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And as for correcting false or incorrect information yep, guilty as charged, oh well. Is this site about factual information or just whatever gobbilty gook gets posted and claimed as factual information? And the fact that it happens to be women posting incorrect information more so then men, is merely happenstance. Correct information is not sexist, sorry non factor nice try. Oh and if I was wrong on information I posted or stated, rest assured I'd be corrected and have been before. And insults have been slung both ways, guess you missed that part huh. "Cheery picking" right Techno LOL. And yes there is a pattern by the drama squad, just as there is a pattern of members who support Trump being belittled for doing so, but just don't offend the vegans right LOL. Oh the hypocrisy of that is hilarious. And I keep hearing this is a prepping site, but surely not my use for it. I wouldn't use a dentist for a medical physician, although a dentist may be able to perform some of the same procedures as a physician. There are specialized sites, with far more information for prepping and survival.
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“Facts don't care about your feelings.”
― Ben Shapiro |
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WitchMisspelled
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Then you hear wrong. Even the title of this forum denotes this is a pandemic talk site. This, of course, includes prepping. But this is not solely a prepping site. |
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