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New Zealand exits zero covid plan

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    Posted: October 04 2021 at 2:46pm

https://www.dw.com/en/coronavirus-digest-new-zealand-drops-zero-covid-strategy/a-59396717


New Zealand has abandoned its long-standing COVID-19 elimination strategy in the face of a challenging delta outbreak, authorities announced on Monday. Instead, the country will focus on increasing vaccination rates and learning to live with the virus.

"With this outbreak and delta the return to zero is incredibly difficult," Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern said in a major policy shift.

"This is a change in approach we were always going to make over time. Our delta outbreak has accelerated this transition. Vaccines will support it," she said.



Giving up on zero covid plan will be like an experiment. How will the virus impact a nation that will be facing its first wave of the virus? The US has 100’s of times NZ’s per capita cases with vaccines,best medical practices,and  a lot more hospital capacity available. With their low vaccination rate this could be troublesome.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote carbon20 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 04 2021 at 3:22pm

Think they will be worried about the Maori and Pacific Islander population......      

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote carbon20 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 04 2021 at 4:01pm

ABC News: Air New Zealand to require full COVID-19 vaccination for international travellers.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-10-03/air-new-zealand-require-vaccination-for-international-travel/100510730

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote carbon20 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 04 2021 at 4:02pm
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote KiwiMum Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 04 2021 at 4:05pm

As of today the vaccination rates for Covid in NZ are 47% are double jabbed, 77% have had at least one jab. That compares to 56% of the US who are double jabbed. 

The problem that the government seems to have had here is that there is at least one person, and most probably a handful of people, who are completely asymptomatic and working somewhere where they have contact with strangers - such as a supermarket - and that's how it's spreading so rapidly. Last week they tried sending people to test for covid to random houses in two districts of Auckland in a vain hope of finding these people, but even if they did find them, they'll always be others. It's unfortunate but that seems to be the nature of Covid at the moment. 

At my son's university today they are offering free hamburgers to anyone who will have a Covid vaccine. This special offer is available today and tomorrow from a mobile vaccination / burger wagon!!!!

Those who got it wrong, for whatever reason, may feel defensive and retrench into a position that doesn’t accord with the facts.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote carbon20 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 04 2021 at 4:12pm

I have wondered as in NSW spread ,are some people deliberately spreading the virus......

Just saying......


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote carbon20 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 04 2021 at 6:25pm
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Pixie Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 04 2021 at 7:37pm

Didn’t take long for fear and apprehension  to set in. Maybe that will help the vaccination program.



https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/oct/05/anger-and-grief-new-zealanders-fearful-as-covid-elimination-strategy-ends


New Zealanders are grieving for the end of the country’s Covid elimination strategy and anxious about what the future holds, a day after prime minister Jacinda Ardern announced the country would switch to a suppression approach.

“It’s kind of a grieving for what we are losing,” microbiologist Siouxsie Wiles, one of the pandemic response’s most prominent science communicators, said. “We are very clearly losing alert level 1, and the freedoms and privileges that come with [it],” she said.


For a country that has never had to reckon with widespread transmission or illness from Covid-19, any excitement over loosened restrictions has been tempered with apprehension and, in some cases, anger at the toll that could lie ahead.


We have actually had an incredible pandemic so far,” Wiles said, with open schools and businesses, and the continuation of relatively normal life. “Most of the rest of the world haven’t had that. Or if they’ve had it, it’s been really dangerous and people have gotten sick and some people have died. It’s not clear to me whether people have really got their head around that.”

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I think there is fear amongst the elderly but then they are mostly vaccinated as they were given priority slots. But I haven't met anyone else who's frightened. Certainly we're all over the distancing and mask wearing - and I say that as someone who lives in the South Island where we haven't had a positive case in 325 days. I think the government made a huge error in it's mask mandates for this island as now we're all so fatigued by the ridiculousness of it all. They should have let us get on with life and introduced them once the elimination goal was reset to one of managing it. 

I hear complete strangers mumbling about how stupid it all is as we have to queue for the check out 2 m away from the next person. Yesterday I was chatting to a teacher who was totally against the vaccines for children and also against masks for them. She said it was inhibiting their behaviour and damaging their education. 

Interestingly I know two elderly vulnerable people - one in her 70s who has multiple little skin cancers and the other in his late 60s with a heart condition who have both been advised by their doctors not to have the jab.

Those who got it wrong, for whatever reason, may feel defensive and retrench into a position that doesn’t accord with the facts.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 05 2021 at 9:46pm

On the NZ debate [url]https://twitter.com/wicmar[/url] or https://twitter.com/wicmar ; A Covid-19 vaccine certificate will be launched in New Zealand next month that will be a mandatory requirement at large events and other high risk settings, such as hospitality.

-

I also hear people say: - NZ is now using vaccination as a tool in the strategy? Vaccine isn't the silver bullet! We'll use it WITH quarantines, TTI, vaccine certificates, mask mandate, C19 App + others!

-

As we are now undertaking this planned work, slowly and carefully over the next 5 months (using a full armour of measures) I now hear: - NZ has lost controool of the virus - they are slowly planning to open up!Gezicht dat schreeuwt van angst You’re a tough crowd guys, but c’mon - give us a break people.


DJ What I do get the goal still will be keeping numbers down. With vaccines getting widespread you can change/have to change strategy...

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https://www.newsroom.co.nz/modelling-thousands-of-deaths-without-high-vaccination-rates


You have to give the officials in New Zealand a lot of credit for the data they give out to the public. These modeling on vax rates show what needs to be reached. Since everyone seemed to tolerate the no covid approach they will probably reach a high vax # 



The latest research from Te PΕ«naha Matatini shows that if vaccination rates aren't high enough, New Zealand will continue to need lockdowns or see thousands of Covid-19 deaths a year, Marc Daalder reports

High vaccination rates are crucial to ending the use of lockdowns, expert disease modellers have found.


Te PΕ«naha Matatini researchers Nicholas Steyn, Michael Plank and Shaun Hendy have modelled the outcome of a year-long outbreak of the Delta variant at a range of different vaccination thresholds and with different levels of public health restrictions in place.


If vaccines remain effective against the virus or are reinforced with booster shots, if more than 90 percent of the population over the age of five is vaccinated and if moderate public health measures (like mandatory masking and improved ventilation) are put in place alongside a comprehensive testing, tracing and case isolation system, then the impact of the virus could be similar to an average flu year. If vaccines are not available for the five-11 age cohort, then more than 95 percent of the eligible over 12 population would have to be vaccinated.


Even vaccination rates considered high overseas – like 80 percent of over 12s vaccinated – would see 7000 New Zealanders die over the course of a year and 5770 people in hospital at the peak of the outbreak.

The results reiterate the findings of Te PΕ«naha Matatini modelling from June, which found vaccination alone was unlikely to get New Zealand to population immunity. But they go further in confirming that active management of outbreaks will still be needed to stop the health system from being overwhelmed.


The key to stopping an outbreak is to reduce the reproduction number (how many people each case infects) to below 1. Hopes that vaccines alone can reduce the R number below 1 have dwindled with the arrival of the more transmissible Delta variant, which has a natural R number of 5.5 to 6.5.


Impacts of a one-year outbreak with moderate public health measures and full testing, tracing, isolation and quarantine system

Percent of over 12s vaccinated

Cases

Hospitalisations

Deaths

Peak hospitalisations

70%

1,848,646

106,172

13,271

15,549

75%

1,579,662

81,674

10,001

10,089

80%

1,288,249

58,464

7,004

5,770

85%

962,392

36,868

4,314

2,695

90%

461,893

13,796

1,557

878

95%

42,423

1,103

123

83

Percent of over 5s vaccinated

Cases

Hospitalisations

Deaths

Peak hospitalisations

70%

1,518,616

94,809

11,399

12,657

75%

1,209,014

68,865

8,039

7,323

80%

861,391

43,757

4,936

3,319

85%

308,699

13,249

1,411

848

90%

13,398

476

50

20

95%

2,948

79

8

2

Based on central estimate of vaccine effectiveness.

Source

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote carbon20 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 09 2021 at 4:10pm

Both in New Zealand and over here in WA It will be very interesting what happens when we open up.

Keep your eyes on NSW (Sidney) they opening up tomorrow,

With about 70% vaxed

Our state of Victoria is having a bad time at the moment,high cases .

Take care all πŸ˜·πŸ˜‰πŸ’‰





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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote carbon20 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 09 2021 at 4:53pm

ABC News: NSW Premier warns residents to brace for a 'difficult time' ahead as the state begins to reopen.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-10-09/premier-perrottet-announces-new-cases/100526514

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote carbon20 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 10 2021 at 10:31pm

The Guardian: New Zealand braces for rising Covid cases as expert warns of potential explosion.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/oct/11/new-zealand-covid-update-country-on-knife-edge-as-cases-expected-to-rise-further


Carbon20: going to be interesting,as is NSW.....

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Pixie Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 20 2021 at 5:51pm

https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/453951/covid-19-tsunami-coming-emergency-nurse-says-lack-of-planning-causing-anxiety


Sounds like NZ nurses are not up to the task,already thinking about quitting.They have no idea how medical staff around the world has been dealing with huge influxes of the sick and dying for the past year and a half with no let up,sacrificing home life and literally dying to save others.


Excerpts…

An Auckland emergency nurse says overworked nurses fear hospitals aren't ready for the Covid-19 tsunami - and often think about quitting.


The nurse, who works in one of Auckland's emergency departments (ED), said many of her colleagues finish shifts wondering if they would come back for the next one.

"The nurses are really, really feeling it - feeling really anxious. They feel like there's a tsumani coming. They can see it coming ... and what do they do? Do they run towards it or do they back off?"


They tried to stay positive at work, she said.

"But when we go home we think back and we think 'do I have to go in tomorrow? Do I have to face the same old issues I've been facing in the past month, past two months?'," she said.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote CRS, DrPH Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 20 2021 at 11:10pm

I'm waiting for the emergence of a "game-changer" variant, one which can evade our existing vaccination.  Science dictates that this will happen, given that so many countries are failing to control the outbreak.   This will make the argument in NZ moot, I fear.

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-02854-3

  • NEWS

COVID vaccine makers brace for a variant worse than Delta

Companies are updating vaccines and testing them on people to prepare for whatever comes next in the pandemic.

Pfizer’s chief executive, Albert Bourla, made a bold promise in June. Standing next to US President Joe Biden at a press conference in St Ives, UK, just before the G7 summit meeting, Bourla said that should the need arise for a new COVID-19 vaccine, his company could get one ready within 100 days.

The need he was referring to is the possible emergence of an ‘escape variant’ — a dominant strain of SARS-CoV-2 that evades the fledgling immunity established through vaccines and previous infections. No such strain has yet been identified, but Pfizer and other leading COVID-19 vaccine makers are gearing up for that scenario.

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I've been saying at work ,and on here a few weeks ago....

I think the reason that the governments are mandating vaccines is because they know that there is a worse mutation on the horizon.....

It's not rocket science,it's just very simple biology.....

Viruses mutate ,like every other living thing on the planet.....

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote WitchMisspelled Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 21 2021 at 2:09pm

Considering UK has a very high vaccine rate and its infection rate is still rising, I question how "on the horizen" a new variant is...

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote carbon20 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 21 2021 at 2:13pm
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote carbon20 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 21 2021 at 2:15pm

Originally posted by WitchMisspelled WitchMisspelled wrote:

Considering UK has a very high vaccine rate and its infection rate is still rising, I question how "on the horizen" a new variant is...

All over the damn place ...

Is the answer.......

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Pixie Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 29 2021 at 8:00pm

New Zealand looks like it is going off the rails. With all the extensive contact tracing and mitigations it doesn’t seem to effect the spread.If a proactive country can’t get a handle on it,how can we feel hopeful?



https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/454565/covid-19-update-160-new-community-cases-in-nz-today


https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/454497/covid-19-update-125-new-cases-in-the-community-two-in-canterbury

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