DJ

[url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/#weekly_table[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/#weekly_table some countries have cases going up-with most of them very likely Omicron-and also deaths-statistics going up. 

[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SARS-CoV-2_Omicron_variant#Statistics[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SARS-CoV-2_Omicron_variant#Statistics (Using highest reported Omicron number per country)

In part those deaths may be dying from the Delta-variant. However "news is unclear"....is Omicron killing this fast ?????

Norway cases +32% - deaths +126% 109 Omicron cases detected.

Denmark cases +50% - deaths -8% (so deaths not yet going up) 2,471 Omicron detections...

UK cases +12%, deaths +1%  3.137 Omicron cases detected

Finland cases +10, deaths +20%  only 9 Omicron cases detected so far...

for monitoring I include Ireland cases -14%, deaths +47% 10 Omicron cases detected (and some more in Northern Ireland)

Liechtenstein cases +12%, deaths going from 1 to 5 (=400%...)  1 Omicron case detected.... 

France (most cases still Delta ???) cases +15%, deaths +40%  only 59 Omicron cases detected...

Italy cases +15%, deaths +20% (also most Delta ???) Omicron cases only 13 detections...

Portugal cases +14%, deaths +1%   37 Omicron cases....

DJ Problem is the BA.2 subvariant needs sequencing so detection takes time...

Canada cases +20%, deaths +12%  so far 91 Omicron cases were found...

Australia cases +12%, deaths -4% 77 Omicron cases....

In Asia;

UAE cases +16%, deaths +50% only 1 Omicron case detected...

Japan cases +14%, deaths +50% ...13 Omicron cases...

South Korea cases +38%, deaths +32% ...90 Omicron cases...

In Africa Omicron must be dominant by now...one would expect to see death-statistics to go up...however a younger population, warm weather, and-maybe ???- no widespread vaccinations do change the picture ? Testing/sequencing is a very major problem ;

Zimbabwe cases +456%, deaths +460% means 5 deaths last week, 28 this week....very serious under reporting....50 Omicron cases "only"...

South Africa cases +93%, deaths "only" +1%...(169 to 171 ) ...779 Omicron cases detected...

In Latin America Brazil detected 6 Omicron cases, Mexico, Cuba, Argentina all just 1...so maybe not "a signal in statistics" yet ? 

DJ Why do these numbers matter ? It can give indications of how bad Omicron may be...does it spread more in vaccinated ???? Does it bring more severe disease in vaccinated ????

Israel reporting 55 Omicron cases - did a lot of booster vaccinations...cases +5%, deaths -20% ...but still not in winter...young population...???

Just trying to get a picture...could it be some Omicron sub-variants are much worse ???

Littlesmile if the Spanish Flu story could give indications it would be helpfull...but the 1918-19 world end/post world war 1 is in many ways "to far away" to be usefull. 

Another complication is "some leaders" a.o. in UK, NL have discredited themselves. A result may be people only follow new rules when "bodies start piling up"....

[url]https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20211213002300320[/url] or https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20211213002300320 ; 

DJ  South Korea cases +38%, deaths +32%...[url]https://outbreak.info/location-reports?loc=KOR[/url] or https://outbreak.info/location-reports?loc=KOR latest info december 4,  BA.1-Omicron then 1% of cases....(Delta AY.69 at 73%, AY.122 at 22%, other 4% )

Norway info updated till december 1...[url]https://outbreak.info/location-reports?loc=NOR[/url] or https://outbreak.info/location-reports?loc=NOR

In general what is needed now (often not published) is what is the age of people dying from CoViD, vaccination status...what variant they tested for...If sequencing is needed (BA.2 not having deletion of 69/70...BA.1, like Alpha, was easy to detect in some PCR tests...) it may take even more time to get the info needed...

By the way, some very welcome good news ; [url]https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20211213002500315[/url] or https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20211213002500315 ;  

Moon says U.S., China, N. Korea agree in principle on end-of-war declaration

DJ The Korean War -as "diplomatic status" started in 1950...so far did not end...

I've just found out that here in NZ the government has just removed the order that masks are compulsory in shops and indoor spaces. They are now recommended but not required. Apparently it's to reward everyone for being vaccinated (91%).

Norway cases +28%, deaths +150% (last week 16, this week-meaning the last 7 days) 40...so limited numbers...[url]https://norwaytoday.info/news/nakstad-comments-on-current-corona-situation-in-norway-says-it-resembles-march-of-2020/[/url] or https://norwaytoday.info/news/nakstad-comments-on-current-corona-situation-in-norway-says-it-resembles-march-of-2020/ ; 

Assistant health director Espen Rostrup Nakstad told TV 2 that the infection situation in the context of omicron is quite similar to the situation in March 2020, before the vaccination program was underway.

He pointed out that infection rates and hospitalization rates are rising and that the vaccines do not seem to provide full protection against the omicron variant.

“We are back to March 2020 a bit, when no one in the population really had particularly good protection against the new virus. Now it seems that the vaccines do not protect us very well against this new variant. So we are back in the same situation a bit, except that the vaccines may protect you from becoming seriously ill,” Nakstad told TV 2.

He emphasized that the vaccines provide important protection against serious illness and that it appears that they provide the same protection against serious illness when it comes to omicron infection.

Only 7% of everyone over the age of 45 in Norway is unvaccinated. Nevertheless, just over 40% of corona patients in Norwegian hospitals are unvaccinated, according to figures from the National Institute of Public Health (FHI).

DJ [url]https://norwaytoday.info/news/fhi-update-as-of-monday-958-omicron-cases-have-been-confirmed-in-norway/[/url] or https://norwaytoday.info/news/fhi-update-as-of-monday-958-omicron-cases-have-been-confirmed-in-norway/ and [url]https://norwaytoday.info/news/norways-fhi-the-third-vaccine-dose-by-itself-isnt-enough-to-get-the-spread-of-omicron-under-control/[/url] or https://norwaytoday.info/news/norways-fhi-the-third-vaccine-dose-by-itself-isnt-enough-to-get-the-spread-of-omicron-under-control/ ; 

“10% of omicron-infected people in Denmark had received three doses of the corona vaccine. The vaccines alone are not enough to control the spread of infection,” infection control chief Geir Bukholm at the National Institute of Public Health (FHI) says.

“It’s not surprising. We know that these vaccines do not protect 100%. Even with a booster dose, some will be infected,” Bukholm told Norwegian Broadcasting (NRK).

A total of 2,471 people in Denmark have been registered as infected with the omicron variant, Sunday figures show. Almost 10% of them became infected even though they had taken three vaccine doses. In Norway, so far, none of those infected with the omicron variant have been vaccinated with three doses, according to the FHI.

“The most important effect we expect from a booster dose is that we can protect people quite effectively against serious illness,” Bukholm noted.

DJ Statistics will give us some info on what age groups are getting what level of protection from infection/disease from the Omicron variant. One worry should be vaccines and/or immunity would increase risks for infection or severe disease. 

Denmark cases +39% deaths (still ?) -8% (down from 73 to 67 these last 7 days) 

UK cases +10%, deaths (still) -1%...

Another problem is that hospitals will get out of capacity soon. Deaths may go up because people no longer can get the care they need...not because Omicron itself is causing more severe disease (then Delta) but causing more patients....

South Korea cases +38%, deaths +28%

Israel cases +16%, deaths +8%

I did see "dr"jc misinformation "South Africa showing Omicron is mild".... SA cases +93% deaths +13%

[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SARS-CoV-2_Omicron_variant#Statistics[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SARS-CoV-2_Omicron_variant#Statistics is mentioning 8,222 Omicron cases being detected in 74 countries...The UK may see 200,000 Omicron cases per day..indicating the sequenced statistics only may have some value on spread...Russia and even China now also reporting cases....

To "copy" "dr"jc some "good news" no Omicron cases in Antarctica yet....

I wonder if Omicron may have more then two subvariants [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SARS-CoV-2_Omicron_variant#Stealth_variant[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SARS-CoV-2_Omicron_variant#Stealth_variant  and [url]https://github.com/cov-lineages/pango-designation/issues[/url] or https://github.com/cov-lineages/pango-designation/issues 

Does the "timeline" for Norway, Denmark differ that much that it explains the difference in % of deaths ? 

Another question is when did first cases start spreading...several countries may have seen Omicron cases mid-november. Part of them via people in travel-possibly spreading Omicron at airports...We may not have a realistic timeline for early spread (from 4 diplomats from Europe leaving Botswana november 11 ?). [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SARS-CoV-2_Omicron_variant#Epidemiology[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SARS-CoV-2_Omicron_variant#Epidemiology 

It looks like we will learn a lot this week on how bad Omicron will show itself in many countries....Zimbabwe may have been hit harder the SA in Southern Africa...but since most of Africa has "very limited testing" and lots of mega-cities (population 10 million+) - Omicron a.o. also detected in India, Brazil we will very likely also have to expect lots of mutations resulting in Omicron sub-variants. 

Since Omicron is spreading this much faster in more hosts (evading most immunity allready) and most of those hosts may have been infected/vaccinated earlier new sub-variants of Omicron may be even more evading immunity. 

Thanks for the link KiminNM; I try to keep an eye on [url]https://github.com/cov-lineages/pango-designation/issues[/url] or https://github.com/cov-lineages/pango-designation/issues . Omicron allready 2 sublineages this early is remarkable...some other sublineages so far have limited data. 

With Omicron exploding so will data give lab's a 24/7 job...Sequencing is taking-I think-to much time. So the medical world may start looking at pattern of symptoms. Sequence-info then comes later to provide more info. 

By now the effect of a lot of mutations in CoViD is known in itself. Omicrons mutations is half "old mutations"seen earlier...one problem is to learn what these mutations may bring in Omicron...

Another point of discussion is should one compare the UK with SA or DK/Norway statistics ? I think you have to look at ALL the info on Omicron. Nationalism/tunnelvision does not help in dealing with a global problem. 

-Numbers (I try to keep the list short). 

[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SARS-CoV-2_Omicron_variant#Statistics[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SARS-CoV-2_Omicron_variant#Statistics Omicron now detected in 77 countries. Global inequality is reflected in only 50 cases detected in Zimbabwe, UK 4,713 detections. DJ-In my non expert opinion Omicron is spreading worldwide-and still gets all the room to do so....boosters to avoid restrictions in rich countries-resulting in even less vaccines for countries we keep poor. WHO warning vaccines alone can not do the job....

UK cases +12%, deaths -7%

DK cases +36%, deaths -7%

Norway cases +26%, deaths +717% ! (6 last week, 49 this week)

SA cases +84%, deaths +7%

South Korea cases +32%, deaths +29%

USA cases -4%, deaths -9% / Canada cases +32%, deaths +1%

Israel cases +13%, deaths +27% (11 last week, 14 this week)

Several statistics indicating both Delta and Omicron numbers are increasing (a.o. in London UK)

Africa statistics cases +85%, deaths +4%...positive test to death may take a few weeks...(CFR round 1% ???)

In Spain cases +45%, deaths +65% ? Portugal cases +10%, deaths -12% (More Delta related ? Spreading from Portugal into Spain ? Spain 50, Portugal 37 Omicron detections...)

Finland cases +13%, deaths +22% (49 last week, 60 this week). Sweden now cases +3%, deaths -75%...did Sweden manage to keep Omicron cases out ? Or were they just lucky ? So far Sweden 28 Omicron cases...but when detected/isolated at border posts they may not spread...

China cases -5% (last week 586, this week 559 China cases only with symptoms) So far only 1 Omicron case ?

Russia cases -8%, deaths -4% This far 16 Omicron cases...

What is Turkey doing ? Cases -8%, deaths -6% so far 6 Omicron cases...

DJ-In a lot of these countries Omicron has become a dominant factor. Deaths may reflect still a lot of Delta cases. However the Delta wave is going down in many (but not all !) places...

Some factors influencing statistics;

-Summer/winter/tropics

-young/old population

-Hit hard by earlier variants or not 

-Vaccination level

-Testing/sequencing capacity & reporting

-What variant(s) are spreading

DJ-Comparing just one country with one other (UK with SA as example) may be misleading if you want to give a picture of what to expect from Omicron. But for instance comparing Norway with Denmark, Finland with Sweden may provide usefull questions. (Why in one country deaths going up, the other still going down-when the spread may have started around the same time ?)

DJ-The picture I am getting Omicron is NOT mild ! Spreads like crazy !