The US president Joe Biden is due to announce the release of a record 1m barrels of oil from US strategic stockpiles every day for the next six months in an attempt to dampen soaring fuel prices in the wake of the attack on Ukraine. The White House said:

After consultation with allies and partners, the president will announce the largest release of oil reserves in history, putting one million additional barrels on the market per day on average – every day – for the next six months.

The scale of this release is unprecedented: the world has never had a release of oil reserves at this one million per day rate for this length of time. This record release will provide a historic amount of supply to serve as bridge until the end of the year when domestic production ramps up.

Agence France-Presse reports that Biden was scheduled to lay out the details in a speech later on Thursday. The release will dwarf earlier uses of the strategic stockpile announced by the Biden administration in tandem with other countries on 1 March – following the Russian invasion, and also last year in response to rising inflation.

Russia manufacturing activity shrinks to near two-year low in March -PMI

April 1 (Reuters) - Russian manufacturing activity shrank in March at its fastest pace since the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic in May 2020, dragged down by sharply rising delivery times and shortages of materials, a business survey showed on Friday.

The S&P Global purchasing managers' index (PMI) fell to 44.1 from 48.6 in the previous month, well below the 50.0 mark that separates expansion from contraction.

The survey did not mention that Russia sent tens of thousands of troops into Ukraine on Feb. 24, or the harsh economic sanctions against Moscow that that move triggered.

Manufacturing firms registered another deterioration in vendor performance, S&P Global said.

"Lead times lengthened substantially, and to the greatest extent on record amid severe material shortages," it said.

Companies also said material shortages were hampering efforts to replenish stocks.

The survey recorded the most substantial increase in selling prices on record, and the sharpest uptick in input prices since the series began in September 1997.

Employment declined for a second consecutive month, linked to the fall in client demand and new orders, with the rate of job-shedding quickening to its fastest since July 2020.

part 2,

Alexander Mercouris  AM [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FTgGZBGUjTk[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FTgGZBGUjTk ; Putin Decrees Gas for Roubles only, Energy Markets Tremble, Germany Shakes News Topic 451 The German economic miracle no longer exists https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/... Putin Signs Decree Ordering Gas Exports To Be Halted If Buyers Don't Pay In Rubles https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities... 

on inflation-year to year; Germany now at 7,6%, Spain at 9,8%...[url]https://www.dw.com/en/russia-threatens-to-cut-off-european-gas-supply/a-61324564[/url] or https://www.dw.com/en/russia-threatens-to-cut-off-european-gas-supply/a-61324564 

DJ-The West freezes Russian accounts on western banks-in fact stealing Billions from Russia-kicks out Russia from SWIFT and then claim "Russia is breaking contracts"....

Moscow has set a Friday deadline for gas payments to be made in rubles. Germany has called this "blackmail" and insists on paying in euros or dollars.

DJ, German PM Scholtz a few days ago claimed Russia would give some extra time before switching to the Ruble as payment for Russian energy...Maybe he was only hoping for such a move...but per today-april 1-Russia want "unfriendly states" to pay in rubles...

[url]https://www.dw.com/en/german-industry-gas-rationing-plan-would-cripple-economy/a-61302394[/url] or https://www.dw.com/en/german-industry-gas-rationing-plan-would-cripple-economy/a-61302394 ; Unions and representatives of Germany's industrial sector are concerned that if Russia cuts gas supplies, they would be forced to shut production under Berlin's new emergency plan.

-

German Economy Minister Robert Habeck on Wednesday announced a three-stage alert system that would ultimately give households and hospitals priority over industrial firms if gas usage had to be rationed.

Is not a Russian problem...In fact Russia may go for Ruble payment for agri-culture exports (to a.o. the Middle east) as well (DJ-No doubt also Russian weapon export will be in Ruble)..

DJ-A "Hard-Ruble" backed by energy, food, gold could become a "Petro-Ruble"...China can pay in Yuan, India in Rupees...in fact a lot of the world may start dumping both the $ and € since both the EU and US may print more of that...further decreasing the value...US/EU Central bank creating extra currency to buy up shares from companies to postpone their bankruptcy...

[url]https://news.cgtn.com/news/2022-04-01/Chinese-FM-on-diplomatic-recognition-of-Afghan-interim-government--18RWGosvJNC/index.html[/url] or https://news.cgtn.com/news/2022-04-01/Chinese-FM-on-diplomatic-recognition-of-Afghan-interim-government--18RWGosvJNC/index.html ; 

The Afghan interim government should make concrete efforts towards gaining diplomatic recognition, said Chinese State Councilor and Foreign Minister Wang Yi on Thursday in Tunxi, east China's Anhui Province. 

He made the remarks during a press conference after chairing the Third Foreign Ministers' Meeting Among the Neighboring Countries of Afghanistan and the first foreign ministers' dialogue between Afghanistan's neighboring countries and the interim government of Afghanistan.

Noting that diplomatic recognition is a major concern of the Afghan interim government and a common concern of the international community, Wang said that Afghanistan should not become a failed state or be excluded from the international community.

[url]https://news.cgtn.com/news/2022-03-31/China-holds-third-multinational-meetings-to-discuss-Afghanistan-18QjP3r9oT6/index.html[/url] or https://news.cgtn.com/news/2022-03-31/China-holds-third-multinational-meetings-to-discuss-Afghanistan-18QjP3r9oT6/index.html ;

Afghanistan's neighbors should support it in achieving independence, prosperity and peaceful development, Chinese State Councilor and Foreign Minister Wang Yi vowed on Thursday while chairing the Third Foreign Ministers' Meeting Among the Neighboring Countries of Afghanistan.

Wang read Chinese President Xi Jinping's written remarks at the start of the meeting, which was also attended by the foreign ministers of Pakistan, Iran, Russia, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan, and the justice minister of Tajikistan in Tunxi, east China's Anhui Province.

The pressing priority is to provide humanitarian assistance to Afghanistan, and the long-term solution is to help improve the country's capacity for independent development, Wang said, adding that to this end, the international community needs to make concerted efforts.

DJ, The west did freeze (=steel) over 90% of Afghan financial means-resulting in increased risk of starvation...A.o. Venezuela, Iran accounts in western banks are also "frozen"...some of the money used to finance opposition groups-backed by the west...

HAL TURNER EDITORIAL OPINION

At some point, the presence of foreign military "Advisors" and foreign Intelligence "operatives" is going to transform this from a Ukraine-Russia conflict, to a NATO-Russia conflict.  Once that threshold is officially crossed (and it is solely up to Russia to decide) then war is upon us all.

A bunch of US and British military men being present right on the front line would confirm not only how intricately involved with Azov the NATO countries are, but the fact that Ukraine is a US puppet state being used to wage a proxy war on Russia.

DJ, Are EU countries US puppets ? 

[url]https://www.france24.com/en/france/20220331-closing-in-on-macron-could-le-pen-s-blandest-campaign-be-her-most-successful-yet[/url] or https://www.france24.com/en/france/20220331-closing-in-on-macron-could-le-pen-s-blandest-campaign-be-her-most-successful-yet ; A poll by the Ifop-Fiducial group published on Monday indicated Macron would win by just 53% versus 47% for Le Pen – a gap narrow enough to send alarm bells ringing in the president’s camp. 

[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Political_positions_of_Marine_Le_Pen[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Political_positions_of_Marine_Le_Pen ; Le Pen is opposed to globalization, which she blames for various negative economic trends, and opposes European Union supranationalism and federalism, instead favouring a loosely confederate 'Europe of the Nations'.^[17] She has called for France to leave the Eurozone,^[18] however, it was reported in May 2019 that she no longer wishes for France to leave the euro currency.^[19] She has called for a referendum on France leaving the EU.^[20] She has been a vocal opponent of the Treaty of Lisbon,^[21] and opposes EU membership for Turkey and Ukraine.^[22][23] Le Pen has pledged to take France out of NATO and the US sphere of influence.^[24] She proposes the replacement of the World Trade Organization,^[25][26] and the abolition of the International Monetary Fund.^[27]

DJ, In France inflation going up as well ...I am "left wing-not neutral..."...but also here in NL more "progressive parties" keep producing unclear answers...Often going much to far in compromises...losing themselves...Somehow it now is "left wing" to want both NATO and the EU to expand...? 

Maybe I am getting old...

It it could be worse Josh, you could live in Russia. I think Russia is going to experience a few more surprises as the Ukrainians get familiar with all their new "toys".

  You have to remember, Russia is nothing but a cheap gas station. If Russia stops selling oil/gas, the financial strain will worsen significantly. They have no infrastructure in place to divert very much product they don't sell to the West.

  They're going to find out that their "friends" are going pick and meat off their carcass like vultures as they return to third world status. China can't afford to strain ties with the West, this will become clear sooner rather than later... 

Robert Reich, a former US secretary of labor and professor of public policy at the University of California at Berkeley, writes for us today:

It appears that Vladimir Putin’s aides have misinformed him about the war, fearful of his reaction, Reich writes.

On Wednesday, American officials revealed that, according to American intelligence, Putin’s strict isolation during the pandemic and willingness to publicly castigate advisers have contributed to him getting incomplete or overly optimistic reports about the progress of Russian forces.

“We believe he’s being misinformed by his advisers about how badly the Russian military is performing and how the Russian economy is being crippled by sanctions,” Kate Bedingfield, the White House communications director, told reporters. “Because … the senior advisers are too afraid to tell him the truth.”

As a result, the attack has been a catastrophe for Putin. He badly overestimated the Russian military and underestimated Ukraine’s capacity to resist.

Instead of weakening Nato, his attack has strengthened it. And now that the world’s democracies have cut off Russia’s access to the world banking system, Russia’s economy is in freefall.

Dictators like Putin are particularly vulnerable to inaccurate feedback. Instead of independent truth-tellers, they are often surrounded by truth-deniers.

Rather than experts and investigative journalists, their world is filled with pseudo-scientists and propaganda. In place of a free press, they have agitprop and disinformation.

The higher you rise in any hierarchy, the harder it is to get accurate feedback about your decisions because people are afraid to tell you the truth.

I’ve worked with several presidents. All have made big blunders. I’ve also known and written about CEOs of big corporations who have made terrible mistakes. In every case, they had flawed systems for getting useful, accurate and reliable feedback.

Read Robert Reich’s full opinion piece here.

Maybe some more critical points on the Russian side of the story;

[url]https://southfront.org/in-video-russian-air-defenses-intercept-another-ukrainian-ballistic-missile-over-donbass/[/url] or https://southfront.org/in-video-russian-air-defenses-intercept-another-ukrainian-ballistic-missile-over-donbass/  How many ballistic missiles does Ukraine have ? 

[url]https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/ukrainian-forces-reportedly-blow-fuel-depot-russian-territory-daring-cross-border[/url] or https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/ukrainian-forces-reportedly-blow-fuel-depot-russian-territory-daring-cross-border ;

Ukraine forces pulled off a rare attack on Russian soil Friday when two military helicopters destroyed a fuel depot in the city of Belgorod, situated roughly 40 miles north of the border with Ukraine.

The attack was purportedly carried out by two Ukrainian helicopters that crossed into Ukrainian territory. Videos circulating online purported to show Ukrainian Air Force Mi-24 helicopters flying low over Belgorod just before the strike.

DJ, One Ukrainian Mi-24 helicopter was involved in [url]https://southfront.org/more-details-on-interception-of-ukrainian-helicopters-near-mariupol-revealed/[/url] or https://southfront.org/more-details-on-interception-of-ukrainian-helicopters-near-mariupol-revealed/ ; On March 31, forces of the Donetsk People’s Republic reported that they had shot down two Ukrainian Mi-8 helicopters that tried to evacuate members of the Azov Battalion from the Azovstal plant in Mariupol.

-

Both of them claim that the helicopters in question was tasked with the evacuation of members, including injured ones, of Kyiv’s forces. At around 5 AM local time, their helicopter took off from the port area of Mariupol as a part of the group of helicopters involved in the operation. Then, “Belmak” said, the helicopter was shot down near the settlement of Chervone (two MANPAD missiles were launched at it). Claims of the captured fighters indicate that every helicopter had about 14-15 persons on board, including crew.

“Odessit” claims that he saw 4 helicopters involved, while “Belmak” said that there were 5 helicopters (4 Mi-8 and one Mi-24). “Belmak” added that the group of the helicopters moved to Mariupol from Dnipro Airport. The helicopters also delivered supplies, likely weapons and ammunition, to the garrison of Kyiv’s forces surrounded in Mariupol.

Claims of “Belmak” also indicate that this was not the first attempt to use helicopters to deliver supplies to Kyiv’s forces in Mariupol and evacuate personnel from the area.

If the claims of the captured members of Kyiv’s forces are true, it remains unclear what happened with the rest of helicopters. Also, the question appears about the state of the air defense of forces involved in the operation to take control of Mariupol if such a large group of helicopters was really able to penetrate the frontline.

Answering our readers’ questions, why SF cannot confirm the destroying of even the second helicopter and why we claim that there were exactly four helicopters and perhaps the fifth was a Mi-24 attack helicopter covering at least a part of the air group’s route.

The claim of a second helicopter being shot down over the sea is the very similar to the report  by the Russian Ministry of Defence on 28 March.  No objective control data or another evidences were provided.
Two seriously wounded but surviving AFU servicemen from the downed helicopter give identical statements which agree in details. It is hard to imagine that they had time to negotiate while the helicopter was falling down.
A separate question is raised by the report that the helicopter was shot down by a trophy Stinger man-portable air defence system. Why did the units blocking Mariupol not have standard Russian man-portable air defence systems? Why is the space above Mariupol not controlled by Russian air defence systems such as Buk or Pantsir? Obviously, we are not talking about the S-300/400, which are designed to operate against targets at other altitudes.

DJ...Ukraine was supposed to have 30 Mi-8 helicopters...Russia was supposed to have "ended" the Ukraine air force...Where do these helicopters come from ? How can it be Ukraine still is able to use ballistic missiles ?????

Both those missiles and helicopters are "older types" also used-once-by countries that were part of the Warsaw-pact-now in NATO...Are the missiles, helicopters not realy Ukraine ones ? But "NATO-ones-painted in Ukraine colors"????

[url]https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/american-and-uk-military-advisors-plus-france-intel-operatives-holed-up-with-azov-nazis-in-mariupol-now-trapped-by-russian-forces[/url] or https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/american-and-uk-military-advisors-plus-france-intel-operatives-holed-up-with-azov-nazis-in-mariupol-now-trapped-by-russian-forces Again-the west may be more involved in this war then the "media" tell us...

[url]https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/ukraine-attacks-belogorad-russia-blows-up-fuel-depot[/url] or https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/ukraine-attacks-belogorad-russia-blows-up-fuel-depot ;

Russia accused Ukraine of carrying out an air strike against a fuel depot in the Russian city of Belgorod on Friday, an incident the Kremlin said set an unfavorable tone for peace talks with Kyiv.

Ukraine's foreign minister, Dmytro Kuleba, said he could not confirm or deny reports of Ukrainian involvement in the strike as he did not have military information. The Ukrainian Defense Ministry and the general staff did not respond to requests for comment.

DJ-Both sides Ukraine/NATO and Russia may not take the peace talks that serious...Helicopters can fly (at daybreak) at very low altitude...radar may miss them...But after their attack-35/40 kilometers inside Russia-Russian planes will have been trying to find them...

--------------------------------------------------------

[url]http://thesaker.is/meet-the-new-resource-based-global-reserve-currency/[/url] or http://thesaker.is/meet-the-new-resource-based-global-reserve-currency/ ; 

It was something to behold. Dmitri Medvedev, former Russian President, unrepentant Atlanticist, current deputy chairman of the Russian Security Council, decided to go totally unplugged in an outburst matching the combat star turn of Mr. Khinzal that delivered palpable shock and awe all across NATOstan.

Medvedev said “hellish” Western sanctions not only have failed to cripple Russia, but are instead “returning to the West like a boomerang.” Confidence in reserve currencies is “fading like the morning mist”, and ditching the US dollar and the euro is not unrealistic anymore: “The era of regional currencies is coming.”

DJ How much damage are western sanctions doing to Russia...with both energy- and food-prices going up. Is the price rise undoing a lot of the sanctions ? Yes the EU may try to import less oil/gas but still with prices going up-the amount of money may not change...while India, China (etc) buy more (cheap-for-friends) Russian energy...What price does Turkey (Turk-stream) have to pay ? In what currency ? Turkish Lira ? 

Germany was the first to break – even before industrialists from Ruhr to Bavaria staged a mass revolt. Scholz, the puny Chancellor, called Putin, who had to explain the obvious:  payments are being converted into rubles because the EU froze Russia’s foreign exchange reserves – in a crass violation of international law.

With Taoist patience, Putin also expressed hope this would not represent a deterioration in contract terms for European importers. Russian and German experts should sit down together and discuss the new terms.

Moscow is working on a set of documents defining the new deal. Essentially, that spells out no rubles, no gas. Contracts become null and void once you violate trust. The US and the EU broke legally biding agreements with unilateral sanctions and on top of it confiscated foreign reserves of a – nuclear – G20 nation.

-

The Russian Central Bank nationalized foreign exchange earnings of all major exporters. There was no default. The ruble keeps rising – and is now back to roughly the same level before Operation Z.  Russia remains self-sufficient, food-wise. American hysteria over “isolated” Russia is laughable. Every actor that matters across Eurasia – not to mention the other 4 BRICS and virtually the whole Global South – did not demonize and/or sanction Russia.

-

The freezing of foreign reserves had to have been forecasted, especially because the Russian Central Bank had been increasing its reserves of US Treasuries since November last year. Then there’s the serious possibility of Moscow being able to access “secret” offshore foreign reserves – a complex matrix built with Chinese insider help.

The sudden switch from dollars/euros to rubles was hardcore, Olympic-level geoeconomic judo. Putin enticed the collective West to unleash its demented hysteria sanction attack – and turned it against the opponent with a single, swift move.

DJ, The basic EU error in sanctions; the EU needs Russia much more then Russia needs the EU...

And here we all are now trying to absorb so many in-synch game-changing developments following the weaponization of dollar assets:  rupee-ruble with India, the Saudi petroyuan, co-badged Mir-UnionPay cards issued by Russian banks, the Russia-Iran SWIFT alternative, the EAEU-China project of an independent monetary/financial system.

Not to mention the master coup by the Russian Central Bank, pegging 1 gram of gold to 5,000 rubles – which is already around $60, and climbing.

Coupled with No Rubles No Gas, what we have here is energy de facto pegged to gold. The EU Chihuahuas and the Japanese colony will need to buy a lot of rubles in gold or buy a lot of gold to have their gas. And it gets better. Russia may re-peg the ruble to gold in the near future. Could go to 2,000 rubles, 1,000 rubles, even 500 rubles for a gram of gold.

-

Russian naval fleets may now employ Kalibr missiles across a space comprehending Eastern Europe, West Asia and Central Asia. The Caspian Sea and the Black Sea, linked by the Don-Volga canal, offer a space of maneuver comparable to the Eastern Mediterranean and the Persian Gulf combined. 6,000 km-long. And you don’t even need to access warm waters.

That covers around 30 nations: the traditional Russian sphere of influence; historical borders of the Russian empire; and current political/energy rivalry spheres.

No wonder the Beltway is berserk.

Russia guarantees shipping across Asia, the Arctic and Europe, in tandem with the Eurasia-wide BRI railway network.

-

Medvedev was not bragging when he said the era of a single reserve currency is over. The advent of a resource-based global reserve currency means, in a nutshell, that 13% of the planet will not dominate the other 87% anymore.

It’s NATOstan vs. Eurasia redux. Cold War 2.0, 3.0, 4.0 and even 5.0. It doesn’t matter. All the previous Non-Aligned Movement (NAM) nations see which way the geopolitical and geo-economic winds are blowing: the time to assert their real sovereignty is at hand as the “rules-based international order” bites the dust.

DJ, Russia is able to secure its trade with friendly partners...and make western sanctions work against the west...Further making the west go wild (and increasing nuclear risks)...

[url]https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/if-ukraine-joins-eu-it-will-be-poorest-member-far[/url] or https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/if-ukraine-joins-eu-it-will-be-poorest-member-far ;

Yet, more than thirty years after the Russian state collapsed—and has remained a shell of its former self to this day—Ukraine continues to fall behind other states that also endured socialism and soviet domination. 

The missing link here is what we find over and over again in much of the world. As Sutela shows, Ukraine has simply never produced reliable institutions designed to protect private property, facilitate trade, or provide predictability in policy that private entrepreneurs and owners can work with. The reality, rather, has been corruption and kleptocracy at a level that well exceeds other states in the region. 

Successful economies require at least a servicable amount of respect for private property in law and legislation. Companies need to know they won't be expropriated or subjected to ruinously high taxes. Corrupt regimes like Ukraine's, on the other hand, tend to be impossible to plan for and are often punitive on a level that makes private enterprise "not worth it." Under these conditions, only the black market can thrive. All states, of course, practice some level of thievery through taxation and the exercise of arbitrary power through the capricious application of law and regulation. But some states are far worse about it than others. Ukraine has never managed to shed Soviet habits in this regard. 

It will be interesting if the member states of the EU want to take on this sick man of Europe for the sake of showing solidarity with a country that is now enduring the misfortune of invasion and economic destruction. 

DJ, The EU can NOT help Ukraine....Not in a way that would make enough of a difference...Maybe EU-TIP (Turkey-Iran-Pakistan) and China will be able to offer hope to Ukraine, Afghanistan...

[url]https://www.zerohedge.com/political/whats-going-joe-biden[/url] or https://www.zerohedge.com/political/whats-going-joe-biden

DJ...[url]https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/imf-warns-sanctions-against-russia-threaten-weaken-dominance-dollar[/url] or https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/imf-warns-sanctions-against-russia-threaten-weaken-dominance-dollar 

also [url]https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/eu-bureaucrats-pressure-beijing-do-more-stop-war-ukraine[/url] or https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/eu-bureaucrats-pressure-beijing-do-more-stop-war-ukraine ...point is China is not sending weapons into Ukraine, the EU is buying more energy from Russia then China does....

But the sanctions-by now-may hurt the EU much more then the EU expected...A short term choice-without a long term idea...

[url]https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/breakaway-georgian-region-planning-referendum-join-russia[/url] or https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/breakaway-georgian-region-planning-referendum-join-russia ; 

The leader of Georgia’s breakaway republic of South Ossetia has said he’s ready to take steps to join Russia, and a referendum is expected to be held within the next few months.

South Ossetia is a de facto independent state and has been recognized by Russia and several other countries since the brief 2008 war. Russia intervened in 2008 to help South Ossetia fight off the forces of then-Georgian President Mikhail Saakashvili, but most countries still recognize South Ossetia as part of Georgia.

DJ Maybe Russia will not go for referenda...simply include several parts at the end of the "Ukraine campain" including [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transnistria[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transnistria ?

DJ, no doubt related [url]https://southfront.org/biolab-in-ukraine-moscow-has-the-emails-of-biden-jr-panic-in-the-white-house/[/url] or https://southfront.org/biolab-in-ukraine-moscow-has-the-emails-of-biden-jr-panic-in-the-white-house/ ; link to it [url]https://eng.mil.ru/en/special_operation/documents.htm[/url] or https://eng.mil.ru/en/special_operation/documents.htm 

From Moscow, thus, new accusations come to Joe’s son.

According to Igor Kirillov “The existence of this material is confirmed by the Western media and the content of the messages shows that Hunter Biden was instrumental in providing funding opportunities for work with pathogens in Ukraine, securing funding for Black & Veach and Metabiota ( the latter, an American biotechnology company) “.

The Russian Defense Ministry has made public a list of those who would be involved in the creation of biological weapons components in Ukraine. Among these, one of the key figures according to the Russians was Robert Pope, a US Defense Department executive at the Defense Threat Reduction Agency. A few days ago, former US President Donald Trump asked Vladimir Putin to make public any harmful information he knew about the Biden family, in particular about Hunter Biden, the president’s son.

The Russian State Duma has opened an investigation into an alleged network of US-controlled bio-laboratories in Ukraine and will report the conclusions of the proceedings to President Putin and international organizations. The investigation will proceed through four working groups, the Special Commission of the Lower House of Parliament has established, after hearing the testimony of the Ministry of Defense, according to what the co-president, Irina Yarovaya, has announced. “We are talking about Pentagon-controlled covert activities, with elements indicating the development of biological weapons, a danger to both Ukraine and Russia,” she said, citing the involvement, according to Moscow allegations, of Hunter Biden, with his investment fund Rosemont Seneca, and the US undersecretary of state for political affairs, Viktoria Nuland, to whom the Duma formally asks for explanations.

-

 Potential energy projects Hunter Biden discussed with the Chinese company were never made public, but the US businessman received at least $ 3.79 million in consulting contracts. Biden then made another million dollars defending Patrick Ho, a CEFC executive accused by the US of having organized in a multimillion-dollar corruption scheme that also involved Chad and Uganda and was subsequently sentenced to three years in prison.

DJ, If Russia can proof the son of the US president was involved in this the US "has a problem" even if the west also will go in full denial...

Most likely countries like China, India, Arab world and Latin America may by now believe "bidens war" is for two reasons;

-US "democrats/h.clinton" claiming Russia could get trump elected as US president (and the problem is NOT in the US elections....)

-biden cover-up crimes of his son....

This will not bring more support for US foreign policy....

Evidence found of execution of civilians

DJ

[url]https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/2-april-almost-300-people-buried-in-mass-grave-in-bucha-outside[/url] or https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/2-april-almost-300-people-buried-in-mass-grave-in-bucha-outside It would be "more then welcome"if an "independent group" (of police experts ?) could be formed to investigate all the war crimes/war crime stories....but I do expect both Russia and Ukraine will stick to their own stories/propaganda...

Certainly less organized and trained military groups can do horror....Handing out weapons to those not trained how to use them, deal with combat, may be a wrong choice. In other wars handing weapons out to civilian "militia" did cause terror, crime and proved to be counter productive (weapon trade, looting, rape etc...)

DJ-Starting a war is a war-crime in itself. For that matter by now most "leaders" should be in jail by now....but those "on the top/end of control hierarchy" are not very likely to turn themselves in...never were...

Alexander Mercouris AM [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=79R91DJ9aKE[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=79R91DJ9aKE ; Battle For Donbass Looms, Germany Industry Warns Against Gas Cut Off, China and India Hold Firm on Russia Links News Topic 453 Xi calls on EU to form independent China policy, encourages bloc to take primary role for Ukraine resolution https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/20220... https://mid.ru/en/foreign_policy/news... https://www.ft.com/content/5aff68f9-a... Shaken at First, Many Russians Now Rally Behind Putin’s Invasion https://www.nytimes.com/2022/04/01/wo...

DJ, in short, Russian Lavrov being welcomed in China, India...Ruble-Rupee energy deal still being discussed. EU leaders-calling for sanctions against Russia-again as good as ignored; China making clear the EU should have its own foreign policy...China/Xi again underlined NATO expansionism is reason for this war.

Putin approval at 83% (by an anti Putin Russian poll agency).  Russian peace/pacifist protests find "very limited" support.

In Ukraine preparations for "phase II" of the war are on their way...Russia may be preparing up to 250,000 military (?) for further attacks in Eastern Ukraine...Kiev could be "more willing" to avoid such a confrontation/defeat...In Mariupol fighting still going on with around 4,000 of the 14,500 Ukraine/nazi forces still in several pockets...(Russian claim). 

[url]https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/there-is-no-contract-for-natural-gas-between-gazprom-in-russia-and-germany[/url] or https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/there-is-no-contract-for-natural-gas-between-gazprom-in-russia-and-germany ;

The contract(s) that Germany has to buy natural gas, are between Germany and GAZPROM Germania, GmbH, a **separate** corporation and conglomerate headquartered in Berlin.  That separate Conglomerate was a 100% subsidiary of GAZPROM in Russia, but it operated as its own company.

On Friday, GAZPROM in Russia, terminated its relations with GAZPROM Germania, GmbH.

Now that GAZPROM in Russia has ended all relations with GAZPROM Germania, GmbH, the latter will not have any gas to sell to its contract customers!!!!!!!!

It is now widely expected that GAZPROM Germania, GmbH will become insolvent and be forced into Bankruptcy within a few weeks, and likely have to be liquidated by Bankruptcy proceedings because it has no gas to sell.  

Once GAZPROM Germania, GmbH is dissolved, all its present customers can seek to buy gas from GAZPROM in Russia, but those would be **NEW** customers and **NEW** contracts, all requiring payment in . . . . . . . . Rubles.

No Rubles?  No gas.

Moreover, since Germany has already grabbed Russia's Foreign currency Reserves and allegedly also already grabbed any of Russia's Gold Bullion stored in German Banks, there's nothing left for Germany to "take" from Russia to try to force Russia to turn the gas back on.  With relations between the EU and Russia now openly hostile, no Russian court will bother enforcing any Order from any German (or EU) court.

Germany is F*cked.

DJ "F.ck the EU"-part 2....I do not know who to blame more, biden-this is bidens war ! (stealing h.clinton election, Russia going after hunter biden) or totally incompetent European politics...not only governments....(article 10 NATO-"open doors" not only welcoming Ukraine, Georgia, but also some "ideas" of Colombia, Brazil (under fascist-CIA-rule)....Xi asked the EU why there still is a NATO ...after Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya, Yugoslavia....)

DJ-It is more then high time the EU did get its own foreign policy, to END !!!! NATO (replace it with something more usefull) but more then that; political reforms both in the US, Canada, Australia, UK and the EU....Democracy did become democrazy...neo"liberalism" is selling every thing...western democracy has become that corrupt it reminds me of the "crisis" in the second half of the 18th century, resulting in "revolutions' in the US 1776 (with a former Nieuw Nederland-Yankee role...), France 1789....

No-Russia, China are not any form of democracy (in western terms) but may be willing to take better care of their population then western "elite run" democrazy in wich every $, € or Yen counts....

Europe made itself dependent on fossil fuels from Russia...Climate activists did want to see a reduction on fossil fuel...A lot of economists did warn the EU should "spread its energy" over more sources....But-again-politics gave a lot of bla-bla, kicking also that can down the road (other cans are climate, the Euro-not well "funded" since EU countries are that different-growing to fast without solving problems first is unwise...the Ukraine now joining the EU would destroy the EU....)...

[url]https://www.france24.com/en/france/20220402-macron-warns-of-dangers-of-extremism-at-election-rally-as-french-polls-tighten[/url] or https://www.france24.com/en/france/20220402-macron-warns-of-dangers-of-extremism-at-election-rally-as-french-polls-tighten ; 

French President Emmanuel Macron called on tens of thousands of cheering but increasingly nervous supporters to help him win the "battle between progress and turning back" at his first election campaign rally just a week before the first round of the 2022 presidential election.  

DJ, Next week-april 10-French presidential elections round 1....with France in an energy crisis, high inflation, regional (a.o. Corsica) unrest, refugee-crises, health crises Macron needed to "show himself" in trying to get some sort of peacedeal in the biden-war in Ukraine...since the basics is the US-so not to be mentioned-he can not succeed...

Extreme right wing candidates want France out of NATO, more France going for its own interests...DJ-It is very sad to see "left" now claiming to be pro-NATO in many countries...I am NOT neutral, in the past left-wing parties used to be very critical on both the EU and NATO (and religion)...now the let right wing populists steal also that point...

It is the west finding itself very isolated and without energy....Both the EU and US still need Russian fossil fuels...(most of it for chemical industry and transport-summer will not change that) ...replacing that with "energy" from other sources will bring a very high price making western economies/currencies not competative on a global market....

DJ-Western leaders seem to be unable to think...the idea that biden, bojo (on a party-selling NHS...) or a far right French president has nuclear weapons must be a global nightmare...

-[url]http://thesaker.is/from-marias-office-the-fashion-nazi/[/url] or http://thesaker.is/from-marias-office-the-fashion-nazi/  see also [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coco_Chanel#World_War_II[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coco_Chanel#World_War_II  or [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hugo_Boss_(fashion_designer)#Support_of_Nazism[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hugo_Boss_(fashion_designer)#Support_of_Nazism ...DJ a.o. designer of ss-uniforms...now part of [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hugo_Boss[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hugo_Boss 

DJ, 

Let me call it the "biden wars"....

Because the motor behind the present-and coming-crises/wars is j.biden and his "cult"....j.biden himself is only "the main puppet" of an evil elite...

That "evil elite" is in power in the US and many NATO member states....

A few basic points;

-Trump came to power via Putin....(in fact saying US elections can be hijacked by outsiders...so blame some outsiders...of course NOT mentioning the very unhealthy US-Israel relations...)

-Cover-up for wrong doings of hunter biden....(I do try to follow some of that story, biolabs/energy in Ukraine while his father was vice-president under Obama)

-US #1 at ALL costs (including nuclear war(s)...

[url]https://www.hindustantimes.com/world-news/us-backing-regime-change-in-pakistan-pm-imran-khan-101648938530270.html[/url] or https://www.hindustantimes.com/world-news/us-backing-regime-change-in-pakistan-pm-imran-khan-101648938530270.html ;

US backing regime change in Pakistan: PM Imran Khan

Pakistan’s Prime Minister Imran Khan on Saturday said the move to remove him was an attempt at regime change backed by the United States. Khan is facing a vote to oust him on Sunday.

Also Read | Imran’s anti-US tirade skews the pitch for his successors

Khan told a group of foreign journalists that, “the move to oust me is (a) blatant interference in domestic politics by the United States”.

The White House has denied that the United States is seeking to remove Khan from power after he made similar accusations in the past days.

DJ, will the US back another general "bringing democrazy" to Pakistan ? Maybe include Pakistan in NATO ? Or is the US seeking to start a civil war in Pakistan, another war with India, China to stop EurAsian integration (so the US can "stay #1)..? 

No doubt-outside the west-the world will see Imran Khan now has to pay a price for being in Moscow when Russia invaded Ukraine...

No doubt also India, China, many others, by now do get the US has NO !!!! respect for their country, only going for what it believes is in the interest of a criminal insane US (and partly European) elite....Even if it would destroy a country...Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, Syria....Ukraine....

[url]https://newsaf.cgtn.com/news/2022-04-03/Pakistan-PM-Khan-suggests-he-might-not-accept-vote-to-oust-him-18UFVS6xrbi/index.html[/url] or https://newsaf.cgtn.com/news/2022-04-03/Pakistan-PM-Khan-suggests-he-might-not-accept-vote-to-oust-him-18UFVS6xrbi/index.html ;

Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan who is facing a vote of no confidence this Sunday has suggested that he might not accept a vote to oust him, a move he alleged was being orchestrated by the United States.

Those who want him out say Khan has failed to revive an economy battered by the coronavirus pandemic or fulfill promises to make his government more transparent and accountable.

"How can I accept the result when the entire process is discredited?" Khan told some foreign journalists at his office. 

"The move to oust me is blatant interference in domestic politics by the United States," he said, terming it an attempt at "regime change".

Khan has already lost his parliamentary majority after allies quit his coalition government and joined the opposition

DJ, This kind of dirty work did bring the fascist bolsenaro to power in Brazil...For the Brazil people one may only hope [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Luiz_In%C3%A1cio_Lula_da_Silva#Operation_Zelotes[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Luiz_In%C3%A1cio_Lula_da_Silva#Operation_Zelotes soon can regain power...and kick the US out !

-We are facing a major global crisis and the last thing we need-as citizens-is a corrupt elite trying to get even more rich by worsening crises and creating more crises....

This makes the present situation than more dangerous...NATO has become a tool of a rich elite-claiming to be democratic-while in fact being against any form of democracy...trying to stick/gain global power over "everything" from oil/gas to minerals, sand, water....

That elite will not stop creating chaos untill it is stopped....Will Pakistan accept US created chaos, will India, China, Russia do so ...when they all believe it is yet another US plan to stop Eur-Asia integration ? 

When they all only can come to a conclusion there is NO point in talking with that "western elite" ? 

DJ-I do not think they will accept Pakistan sinking-also-in a "civil-US made-war"...with the outcome of some pro-US dictator "bringing democrazy"....

Does this mean an all out war between "East' and "West/NATO" ? Very likely to go nuclear ? 

I think Russia, China hope to get some "influence/hope" to avoid such a disaster...

Tulsi Gabbard 

@TulsiGabbard

·

Apr 2

DJ, There are more then enough people both in the US and EU/UK willing to take a critical look...Accept changes are needed...

[url]https://www.france24.com/en/tv-shows/france-2022-the-campaign/20220403-french-presidential-election-brings-trotskyists-in-the-spotlight[/url] or https://www.france24.com/en/tv-shows/france-2022-the-campaign/20220403-french-presidential-election-brings-trotskyists-in-the-spotlight in France Macron is seen as "president of the rich"...One right wing candidate [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/%C3%89ric_Zemmour[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/%C3%89ric_Zemmour -pro-Putin-now less popular (he did not expect Russia would invade Ukraine...) with [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marine_Le_Pen[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marine_Le_Pen  now getting more support...

But in France also Communist parties still may be a factor. First round will be april 10...the two candidates getting most of the votes will run a second round april 24...most likely that will be a "battle" between Macron and Le Pen...in wich Le Pen may get support from the left...

IF Le Pen (or very less likely a radical left wing candidate) wins there could be a small chance of France getting out of NATO...(under De Gaulle [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Charles_de_Gaulle[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Charles_de_Gaulle France allready left NATO military command, NATO HQ moved from Paris to Brussel-Belgium...De Gaulle also calling for independence of French speaking part of Canada may have been one of the most major risks for "the West' during the cold war...The other major inside risk was NATO support for extreme right wing groups/coups...) 

DJ-The extreme hysteria in the "west' claiming support for Ukraine while in fact destroying Ukraine may be a sign of western political emptyness...Neo-liberalism that believes power belong to shareholders not voters...WE have a problem !

Putin's war in Ukraine is devastating Russia's economy, wiping out 15 years of growth and sending inflation skyrocketing

Putin’s War Is A Disaster For The Global Economy

Pope Francis criticizes Putin over Russia's "savage" war

Belarus at breaking point: How Putin’s war threatens Lukashenko’s fragile grip on power

Putin wants the West 'disarmed' into thinking his ambitions won't go beyond Ukraine, former NATO commander says

Exiled Russian oligarch says 'the next steps' of Putin's war may be invasion of the Baltic countries: 'He's at war with the United States and NATO'

UK to push for more sanctions on Russia as evidence of Ukraine atrocities mounts

Putin's war in Ukraine leaves thousands of Russians cashless and stranded abroad

Marko Djurica reports for Reuters from Motyzhyn that the head of the village, her husband and son were killed and buried in a shallow grave. An adviser to the Ukrainian interior ministry showed reporters their partially covered bodies in sand. The village is in the Kyiv Oblast, about 55km away from the capital city.

“There have been Russian occupiers here. They tortured and murdered the whole family of the village head,” said Anton Herashchenko, naming those killed as Olha Sukhenko, her husband Ihor Sukhenko and their son, Oleksandr.

“The occupiers suspected they were collaborating with our military, giving us locations of where to target our artillery. These scum tortured, slaughtered and killed the whole family. They will be responsible for this.”

A Reuters reporter saw the bodies in a forest near a farm, which had been all but destroyed, just outside the village. Nearby a burnt out tractor could be seen.

Reuters could not independently verify who killed the family.

Russia has issued strenuous denials that its troops targeted civilians in Ukraine, and has accused Ukraine and the West of setting up fake images to discredit Russia, without producing any evidence to back this up.

• Overall, we rate the Hal Turner Radio Show extreme right biased and Questionable based on the promotion of extreme right-wing propaganda, conspiracy theories, and hate. We also rate him Very Low in factual reporting due to an abysmal track record with fact-checking and little or no sourcing of information.

• Questionable Reasoning: Propaganda, Poor Sourcing, Failed Fact Checks, Conspiracy Theories, Hate Group
  Bias Rating: EXTREME RIGHT
  Factual Reporting: VERY LOW
  Country: USA
  Press Freedom Rating: MOSTLY FREE
  Media Type: Website
  Traffic/Popularity: Medium Traffic
  MBFC Credibility Rating: LOW CREDIBILITY

  History

  Founded in 2002, The Hal Turner Radio Show is a shortwave radio broadcast and website by Far-Right conspiracy theorist Hal Turner. He is a convicted felon from North Bergen, New Jersey. According to their about page, Turner states, “Hal Turner is the only living media personality in the United States to be imprisoned by the federal government for writing an Editorial they didn’t like!” He also describes his political views as “Hal Turner is so far to the right he made Rush Limbaugh look like a liberal, and Sean Hannity seem like a girly-man! Michael Savage and Mark Levin don’t even come close.”

• Finally, during 2020, Hal Turner repeatedly published false information regarding covid-19 and election fraud (see failed fact checks below). In general, Hal Turner is an extreme right conspiracy theorist who frequently promotes hate.

  Failed Fact Checks

  • People with the COVID-19 vaccine are being “tracked in real-time via 5G cellular, and all that data can be hacked into to track you.” – Pants on Fire
  • Says the coronavirus is “a MILITARY BIO-WEAPON Developed by China’s Army.” – False
  • “1776 flag flying over White House!” in January 2021. “Revolution Signal.” – False
  • “[H]ow is it that ALL of these phony names are ALL registered to vote, and ALL registered as Democrats?” – False
  • Says Virginia Gov. Ralph Northam said, ‘You will give up your guns; if you don’t, I’ll have the National Guard cut your power, your phone lines, and your internet. Then, if you still refuse to comply, I’ll have you killed.’” – Pants on Fire
  • Canada’s Strategic Planning Committee’s “global reset plan” to deal with COVID-19, including strict lockdowns and mandatory vaccines. – False
  • “Hal Turner: 50,000 Chinese Soldiers Were Bombed and Killed in Maine Which Was Listed as an Earthquake,” – False
  • These are a small sampling of failed fact checks. There are dozens.

• Overall, we rate the Hal Turner Radio Show extreme right biased and Questionable based on the promotion of extreme right-wing propaganda, conspiracy theories, and hate. We also rate him Very Low in factual reporting due to an abysmal track record with fact-checking and little or no sourcing of information. (D. Van Zandt 6/26/2021)

Satellite images show bodies lay in Bucha for weeks, despite Russian claims.

An analysis of satellite images by The New York Times rebuts claims by Russia that the killing of civilians in Bucha, a suburb of Kyiv, occurred after its soldiers had left the town.

When images emerged over the weekend of the bodies of dead civilians lying on the streets of Bucha — some with their hands bound, some with gunshot wounds to the head — Russia’s Ministry of Defense denied responsibility. In a Telegram post on Sunday, the ministry suggested that the bodies had been recently placed on the streets after “all Russian units withdrew completely from Bucha” around March 30.

Russia claimed that the images were “another hoax” and called for an emergency U.N. Security Council meeting on what it called “provocations of Ukrainian radicals” in Bucha.

But a review of videos and satellite imagery by The Times shows that many of the civilians were killed more than three weeks ago, when Russia’s military was in control of the town.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/04/04/world/europe/bucha-ukraine-bodies.html

[url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b78DBvgzVJw[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b78DBvgzVJw Alexander Mercouris (AM); Russia Advances in Donbass Macron Calls for More Sanctions, Orban and Vucic Win in Hungary, Serbia News Topic 455

DJ, The western (inter mixed) political and media elite are blind for how the crises are working out for rhe average citizen...Not only Hungary, Serbia voted for pro-Russian leadership, also in France Marine Le Pen may bring a surprise...AM-expects Macron to win at the end-april 24. DJ-I do not know...what now is seen as "right wing" and the more left wing voters-ignored by main political parties seeking voters "in the middle" may bring further surprises...

Not only is the economic crisis just starting (the pandemic far from over)...also people are getting fed up with western propaganda and support for Ukraine...most do not feel that much related with Ukraine...may feel manipulated-again-to be against Russia...What is the agenda ? Global War ? 

[url]https://www.moonofalabama.org/2022/04/parliament-moves-elections-let-empire-losses-accumulate.html[/url] or https://www.moonofalabama.org/2022/04/parliament-moves-elections-let-empire-losses-accumulate.html also mentions Pakistan;

In Pakistan the Muttahida Qaumi Movement-Pakistan (MQM-P) party had left the government coalition. Additionally some members of prime minister Imran Khan's PTI party had change sides. The opposition in the parliament was preparing a no-confidence vote against him. At the same time a report by the Pakistani ambassador to the U.S. said that U.S. officials had warned that Pakistan would stay on their enemy list as long as Imran Khan was left in his position.

This was understood to be a call for regime change with rumored bribes pushing the swing votes against Khan.

Yesterday the deputy speaker of the parliament did not allow the no-confidence vote to take place. Imran Khan then asked the president of Pakistan to dissolve the parliament and announced new elections within 90 days.

The case is now in the hands of the supreme court of Pakistan which, after a session today, will continue to hear the case tomorrow.

It seems likely that the supreme court will make a 'wise' decision, blame everyone and agree to new elections.

It will then be the voters who will have to decide mainly on an issue of Pakistan's foreign policy. Should it be independent and friendly with China and Russia or should it change back to the U.S. side?

I haven't found any recent polls from Pakistan but a few days ago Khan's party had won the local elections in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. The people may well be impressed with his position and give him their vote.

As usual in Pakistan the military, who's leadership tends to be pro-U.S., may intervene though I doubt that it will have sufficient public support for it.

DJ, IF there is "growing unrest" in Pakistan it is very likely not only Imran Khan will blame the US for it...Pakistan population 228,3 million, in the west bordering Iran and Afghanistan, in the North China, in the East India has nuclear weapons...The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor and TIP, Turkey Iran Pakistan cooperation are essential-even more with sanctions on Russia-for China-EU trade...

After US interventions in Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria-also elements linking China with the West-now also Pakistan would see "unrest/civil war" the message for China, India, Iran must be clear...the US wants war....

The US (and UK) are keeping Ukraine from going for some kind of peace deal. AM mentions Kiev now agreeing on neutral status, limiting military etc.. If Kiev had taken that position a few months ago we not would have had this war....Zalinsky came back from the Munich Security Conference claiming Ukraine would go for nuclear weapons...I think Russia has no reason at all to trust this US-puppet/clown...The talks now are only for show...If they would bring something usefull it would be welcome...

My opinion; Putin and Xi (China) think a confrontation with the US would have to come...Russia is claiming they try to avoid another world war by stopping NATO in Ukraine...Point is the US-biden-thinks they still have global support...can first fight Russia, then fight China...The "political crisis" in Pakistan may give Russia, Iran, China further reason to believe the US is going for regime-change in Moscow, Tehran, Bejing...

I think that is making this situation that full of risk for further escalation...

[url]https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/niall-ferguson-seven-worst-case-scenarios-war-ukraine[/url] or https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/niall-ferguson-seven-worst-case-scenarios-war-ukraine  some ideas of further escalation...

DJ-It would fit the US to start another Kashmir crisis at the Pakistan-India-China border...The Ukraine false flag "massacres" blaming Russia (repeating over and over "Putin = evil" propaganda) did not come unexpected...southfront.org  "blocked/censored"again...UK blocking security counsel investigating Ukraine massacres....

All indications point to further escalation of wars....

[url]https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/niall-ferguson-seven-worst-case-scenarios-war-ukraine[/url] or https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/niall-ferguson-seven-worst-case-scenarios-war-ukraine DJ-A remarkable good article; "trying to catch history in statistics";

Pinker makes a twofold claim.

• First, there has been a “long peace” between the great powers since around 1945, which contrasts markedly with the previous eras of recurrent great-power conflict.

• Second, there is also a “new peace” characterized by a “quantitative decline in war, genocide and terrorism that has proceeded in fits and starts since the end of the Cold War.”

In short, Pinker argues, “substantial reductions in violence have taken place … caused by political, economic, and ideological conditions.” Half seriously, he even hazards a prediction “that the chance that a major episode of violence will break out in the next decade — a conflict with 100,000 deaths in a year, or a million deaths overall — is 9.7 percent.” Obviously, I believe it’s higher than that.

There is no shortage of political scientists who share Pinker’s view that the world has become a lot less violent, and in particular less susceptible to large-scale war. In an article published in a recent volume edited by Nils Petter Gleditsch of the Peace Research Institute Oslo, Michael Spagat and Stijn van Weezel calculate battle deaths per 100,000 of world population, using a dataset of both inter-state and civil wars since 1816, and identify a structural break in 1950, after which the world became fundamentally more peaceful than in the previous century and a half.

The problem with all such approaches (as Pinker acknowledges) is simple. Even if it is true that the world has become less prone to big wars since 1950, the statistics can provide no assurance that this trend will continue. This profound and perplexing truth was first pointed out by an English polymath born more than 140 years ago.

Lewis Fry Richardson was trained as a physicist and spent much of his career working on meteorology. His research on war went unrecognized in his own lifetime (his highest academic position was at Paisley Technical College in Scotland). It was not until 1960, seven years after his death, that a publisher was found for his two volumes on conflict: “Arms and Insecurity” and “Statistics of Deadly Quarrels.”

Richardson defined a “deadly quarrel” as “any quarrel which caused death to humans,” including not only wars, but also “murders, banditries, mutinies, insurrections,” but not indirect deaths from famine and disease. He reported all casualties in his deadly quarrels in logarithms to the base 10, to create a kind of Richter scale of lethal conflict.

In his analysis of all “deadly quarrels” between 1820 and 1950, the world wars were the only magnitude-7 quarrels — the only ones with death tolls in the tens of millions. They accounted for three-fifths of all the deaths in his sample.

Richardson strove to find patterns in his data for deadly conflict that might shed light on the timing and scale of wars. Was there a long-run trend toward less or more war? The answer was no. The data indicated that wars were randomly distributed. In Richardson’s words, “The collection as a whole does not indicate any trend towards more, nor towards fewer, fatal quarrels.”

This finding has been replicated by Pasquale Cirillo and Nassim Nicholas Taleb and, most recently, by Aaron Clauset (also in the Gleditsch volume). Yes, the world was less violent after World War II than in the first half of the 20th century, or in the 19th century. But, as Clauset puts it, “a long period of peace is not necessarily evidence of a changing likelihood for large wars. … the probability of a very large war [as big as World War II] is constant. … It is not until 100 years into the future that the long peace becomes statistically distinguishable from a large but random fluctuation in an otherwise stationary process.”

In short, it is too early to tell if the “long peace” marks a fundamental change. We won’t be able to rule out World War III until that peace has held all the way to the end of this century.

Another, more historical way of thinking about this is simply to say that calling the era of the Cold War a “long peace” overlooks how close the world came to nuclear Armageddon on more than one occasion. Just because World War III didn't break out in, say, 1962 or 1983 was a matter more of luck than human progress. In a world where at least two states have enough nuclear warheads to destroy most of humanity, the long peace will last only as long as the leaders of those nations decline to initiate a nuclear war.

-

I have argued here before that the global situation today more closely resembles the 1970s than any other recent period. We are in something like a new cold war. We already had an inflation problem. The war in Ukraine is like the Arab states’ attack on Israel in 1973 or the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan in 1979. The economic impact of the war on energy and food prices is creating a risk of stagflation.

But suppose it’s not 1979 but 1939, as the historian Sean McMeekin has argued? Of course, Ukraine’s position is much better than Poland’s in 1939. Western weapons are reaching Ukraine; they did not get to Poland after Nazi Germany’s invasion. Ukraine faces only a threat from Russia; Poland was partitioned between Hitler and Stalin.

On the other hand, if one thinks of World War II as an agglomeration of multiple wars, the parallel starts to look more plausible. The U.S. and its allies must contemplate not one but three geopolitical crises, which could all happen in swift succession, just as the war in Eastern Europe was preceded by Japan’s war against China, and was followed by Hitler’s war on Western Europe in 1940, and Japan’s war on the U.S. and the European empires in Asia in 1941. If China were to launch an invasion of Taiwan next year, and war were to break out between Iran and its increasingly aligned regional foes — the Arab states and Israel — then we might well have to start talking about World War III, rather than just Cold War II.

DJ, I think "tunnelvision" is one of many risks for escalation in any war scenario..."You are either with us or against us" Black&White views call for escalation...Also-from a history perspective-if you want to be as objective as possible you do not take a side...In my opinion there is no "US version of history" or a "Russian version" of history...One may try to learn the facts as best as one can ....quite impossible because there could be so many factors...also in recent history a lot still is kept secret...

A conflict-scale in wich more then 10 million people getting killed would be a "7" on a scale of 10 would translate to "8" for 100 million deaths+, a "9" for 1 billion deaths ? The "10" I think would be the end of us all...However one can discuss if it is even possible to exclude the Spanish Flu from a World War 1 history....Without World War 1 I do not think we would have seen the Spanish Flu getting that deathly...

[url]https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20220405000653325?section=nk/nk[/url] or https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20220405000653325?section=nk/nk ;

DJ, Does North Korea see itself as a (regional) superpower ? South Korea the "minor evil" the main conflicts with Japan and the US ? On the other hand if South Korea/Yoon would go for nuclear (US) weapons in South Korea it would not only increase tensions with North Korea but also with Russia, China etc...

I think it is a major mistake to even believe "escalations can be stopped/controlled" in every stage of a conflict. After Iran did fire missiles against an (illegal) US base in Iraq it was expecting a US reaction that much it shot down a civilian plane from the Ukraine...

Certainly with "hyperspeed weapons" up to 20,000 kilometers per hour and "long distance weapons" able to hit a target thousends of kilometers away it is very easy to see accidents as attacks...Not every internet-problem is a cyber attack...

End of part 1 

From India;

[url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iClkn7rfOm4[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iClkn7rfOm4 

'UK Is The Last Country That Should Lecture India On Its Stand,' Says Tatiana Kukhareva

Republic World discussion;

-US (and EU) calling Ukraine a "democracy" (India seeing both Russia and Ukraine as autocracies). 

-biden insulting Putin from the start of bidens presidency-end of diplomacy 

as a comment; 

and [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UQYd1SFrcf0[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UQYd1SFrcf0 ;

Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov 'appreciated' India's neutrality in talks with S Jaishankar. Lavrov also pushed for a rupee-rouble trade system, terming Western payment systems as unreliable. Palki Sharma tells you more. #Gravitas #Russia #India About Channel: WION -The World is One News, examines global issues with in-depth analysis.

DJ Western "diplomats" bringing threats and lectures" to India...while India only gets 1% of its oil from Russia (most comes out of the Middle East, Indonesia, Malaysia), telling India "what to do" are no longer welcome...

Lavrov offering cheap oil, goods, "can not buy India" as well...India is going for its self interest (and wants to be respected)...Lavrov the only Foreign Minister (of five) visiting India and welcomed by Modi....

From China [url]https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202204/1257543.shtml[/url] or https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202204/1257543.shtml ;

French far-right candidate Marine le Pen, whose presidential campaign has gained momentum in recent days, on Monday captured 48.5 percent of voter intentions in an opinion poll of a likely runoff against Emmanuel Macron, the highest score she has ever notched.

DJ [url]https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202203/1257338.shtml[/url] or https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202203/1257338.shtml ;

Milking the crisis Illustration: Liu Rui/GT

After the latest round of talks between Russia and Ukraine in Turkey on Tuesday, both sides said the negotiations released positive signals. Ukraine proposed adopting neutral status in exchange for security guarantees from the international community. Russia said the country would sharply cut military activity around Kiev and Chernihiv.

But such positive signals were clearly not what the US wants. 

On Wednesday during White House press briefing by Communications Director Kate Bedingfield, when she was asked "Is the US willing to become a guarantor of Ukraine's security or considering that option?" Bedingfield said, "We are in constant discussion with Ukrainians about ways that we can help ensure that they are sovereign and secure. But there's nothing specific about a security guarantee that I can speak to at this time."

Some Chinese netizens mocked that Bedingfield's remarks was like "We won't give any security guarantee without you falling." It reflects that the US doesn't want to see Ukraine and Russia get along peacefully. Li Haidong, a professor from the Institute of International Relations at China Foreign Affairs University, believes the US takes Ukraine as a tool to make Russia bleed, so Washington will sustain its support to Kiev. "If Ukraine and Russia reconcile, the US won't be able to make Russia bleed to the last drop of blood," Li told the Global Times. 

My impression is both India and China are getting "fed up" with US arrogance...most likely Pakistan, Arab World, EU will not be that much different...

It is the US seeking the Ukraine War going on...

[url]https://tass.com/politics/1432595[/url] or https://tass.com/politics/1432595 (not yet censored by the west) ;

Medvedev slams Bucha story as fake Ukrainian propaganda

DJ [url]https://southfront.org/breaking-afu-blew-up-acid-tank-in-chemical-plant-in-rubezhnoye-lpr/[/url] or https://southfront.org/breaking-afu-blew-up-acid-tank-in-chemical-plant-in-rubezhnoye-lpr/ ; 

On April 5, an acid tank in the 1st workshop of the Zarya plant was blown up in the town of Rubezhnoye, in the LPR. The town is partially under the LPR control, clashes continue in the south-eastern districts of the town, where the Zarya plant is located. According to preliminary data, the explosion was carried out by the AFU before their withdrawal from the town.

Local reports confirm that the moment of the explosion was chosen in accordance with the direction of the wind. Thus, the acid cloud is expected to move to the north towards the town of Kudryashovka, which is under the control of the LPR.

southfront.org now de-blocked...Ukraine going chemical...western media stay silent...

[url]https://www.telesurenglish.net/news/China-Denounces-US-Pressure-on-Ukraine-20220404-0021.html[/url] or https://www.telesurenglish.net/news/China-Denounces-US-Pressure-on-Ukraine-20220404-0021.html ; 

China denounces Washington's pressure on other countries to adopt their own stance on different political issues, such as the current Russia-Ukraine conflict.  

DJ [url]https://www.telesurenglish.net/news/Oil-Prices-Jump-on-Talk-of-More-Russia-Sanctions-20220404-0015.html[/url] or https://www.telesurenglish.net/news/Oil-Prices-Jump-on-Talk-of-More-Russia-Sanctions-20220404-0015.html the "fall out" of the "biden war" against Asia is resulting in higher oil/gas prices. In Latin America those countries producing energy (Venezuela, Mexico, Ecuador) could benefit from it...others may see higher inflation. 

[url]https://www.telesurenglish.net/news/Chile-Welcomes-Second-Shipment-of-Sinovac-Vaccines-20210202-0006.html[/url] or https://www.telesurenglish.net/news/Chile-Welcomes-Second-Shipment-of-Sinovac-Vaccines-20210202-0006.html and [url]https://www.telesurenglish.net/news/Cuba-Abdala-Vaccine-Ready-for-WHO-Approval-20220404-0014.html[/url] or https://www.telesurenglish.net/news/Cuba-Abdala-Vaccine-Ready-for-WHO-Approval-20220404-0014.html 

The UN secretary general, António Guterres, is addressing the UN security council in New York, where he said the war in Ukraine is “one of the greatest challenges ever” to the “international order and the global peace architecture” founded on the UN charter.

The war has led to “senseless” loss of life, massive devastation in urban centres and the destruction of civilian infrastructure, he said.

I will never forget the horrifying images of civilians killed in Bucha.

Guterres says he was “equally shocked by the personal testimony of rapes and sexual violence” that are now emerging from the conflict.

Israel’s foreign minister, Yair Lapid, has strongly condemned Russia’s “war crimes” in Ukraine in a statement intensifying Israel’s criticism of Russia since its invasion of Ukraine.

In a statement, Lapid said:

The images and testimony from Ukraine are horrific. Russian forces committed war crimes against a defenseless civilian population.

I strongly condemn these war crimes.

A team from Médecins Sans Frontières/Doctors Without Borders (MSF) witnessed bombings during a hospital visit on Monday in the Ukrainian port city of Mykolaiv, the charity said in a statement.

Michel-Olivier Lacharité, MSF head of mission in Ukraine, said:

Several explosions took place in close proximity to our staff over the course of about 10 minutes. As they were leaving the area, the MSF team saw injured people and at least one dead body. However, we are not in a position to give exact numbers of dead and injured.

Fortunately our staff were able to take cover and were not hurt in the explosions, although the windows of their vehicle, parked outside the hospital entrance, were blown out by the blast

The

and its allies are planning more sanctions on Russia.

The AP reports:

The new penalties will include a ban on all new investment in Russia.

Among the other measures being taken against Russia are greater sanctions on its financial institutions and state-owned enterprises, and sanctions on government officials and their family members, according to White House press secretary Jen Psaki. “The goal is to force them to make a choice,” she said. “The biggest part of our objective here is to deplete the resources that Putin has to continue his war against Ukraine.”

Separately, the Treasury Department moved Tuesday to block any Russian government debt payments with U.S. dollars from accounts at U.S. financial institutions, making it harder for Russia to meet its financial obligations.

President Joe Biden and U.S. allies have worked together to levy a crippling of economic penalties against Russia for invading Ukraine more than a month ago, including the freezing of central bank assets, export controls and the seizing of property, including yachts, that belong to Russia’s wealthy elite. But calls for increased sanctions intensified this week in response to the attacks, killings and destruction in the Ukrainian city of Bucha.

The sanctions are intended to further Russia’s economic, financial and technological “isolation” from the rest of the world as a penalty for its attacks on civilians in Ukraine, Psaki said. That isolation is a key aspect of the U.S. strategy, which is premised on the idea that Russia will ultimately lack the resources and equipment to keep fighting a prolonged war in Ukraine.

Psaki said the administration is assessing “additional consequences and steps we can put in place” but underscored that Biden is not weighing any military action.

US 

An increasingly desperate Russia has engaged in military tactics that have outraged much of the wider global community, leading to charges that it is committing war crimes and causing other sanctions.

Still, almost all of the EU has refrained from an outright ban on Russian oil and natural gas that would likely crush the Russian economy. The U.S. has banned fossil fuels from Russia, while Lithuania blocked natural gas from that country on Saturday, becoming the first of the 27-member EU to do so. The EU executive branch on Tuesday proposed a ban on Russian coal, while Germany’s government intends to end its use of Russian natural gas over the next two years.

part 2, 

DJ-My goal here is to make up my mind on how to see a risk. In scenario's most pandemic-related, here I try to get a view on the international crisis-also having its effects on how we can deal with the present pandemic and other major (bird-flu, HIV) healthcrises..A global answer to a global problem may be the most effective approach...but I think it is getting less and less realistic...

I do not claim to be 100% "right"/correct etc...Just trying to make my mind up on what to think..

AM mentioned Zelensky calling for Russia being excluded from the UNSC...DJ-I did mention some months ago India would love to replace the UK as a permanent member of the UNSC (United Nations Security Counsel) so also getting a right to veto...IF some western countries would get serious on trying to exclude Russia from the UNSC both Russia and China may start pushing for India replacing the UK in that UNSC...France would be forced to make up its mind...stick with the US and UK "west" or "go Asia" joining China, Russia and India...IF France-in such a scenario-would stick to the "west" most likely Brazil, Indonesia a.o. may be willing to replace France in the UNSC...

A vote for changing the UK for India in the UNSC may buy France some time...If "the west" would manage to kick out Russia (replacing it with Ukraine or what ???) they further damage international institutions..in my opinion...

[url]https://www.unz.com/article/the-coming-global-financial-revolution-russia-is-following-the-american-playbook/[/url] or https://www.unz.com/article/the-coming-global-financial-revolution-russia-is-following-the-american-playbook/ ;

No country has successfully challenged the U.S. dollar’s global hegemony—until now. How did this happen and what will it mean?

Foreign critics have long chafed at the “exorbitant privilege” of the U.S. dollar as global reserve currency. The U.S. can issue this currency backed by nothing but the “full faith and credit of the United States.” Foreign governments, needing dollars, not only accept them in trade but buy U.S. securities with them, effectively funding the U.S. government and its foreign wars. But no government has been powerful enough to break that arrangement – until now. How did that happen and what will it mean for the U.S. and global economies?

The Rise and Fall of the PetroDollar

First, some history: The U.S. dollar was adopted as the global reserve currency at the Bretton Woods Conference in 1944, when the dollar was still backed by gold on global markets. The agreement was that gold and the dollar would be accepted interchangeably as global reserves, the dollars to be redeemable in gold on demand at $35 an ounce. Exchange rates of other currencies were fixed against the dollar.

But that deal was broken after President Lyndon Johnson’s “guns and butter” policy exhausted the U.S. kitty by funding war in Vietnam along with his “Great Society” social programs at home. French President Charles de Gaulle, suspecting the U.S. was running out of money, cashed in a major portion of France’s dollars for gold and threatened to cash in the rest; and other countries followed suit or threatened to.

In 1971, President Richard Nixon ended the convertibility of the dollar to gold internationally (known as “closing the gold window”), in order to avoid draining U.S. gold reserves. The value of the dollar then plummeted relative to other currencies on global exchanges. To prop it up, Nixon and Secretary of State Henry Kissinger made a deal with Saudi Arabia and the OPEC countries that OPEC would sell oil only in dollars, and that the dollars would be deposited in Wall Street and City of London banks. In return, the U.S. would defend the OPEC countries militarily. Economic researcher William Engdahl also presents evidence of a promise that the price of oil would be quadrupled. An oil crisis triggered by a brief Middle Eastern war did cause the price of oil to quadruple, and the OPEC agreement was finalized in 1974.

-

In the month after the Ukraine conflict began, the U.S. and its European allies imposed heavy financial sanctions on Russia in response to the illegal military invasion. The Western measures included freezing nearly half of the Russian central bank’s 640 billion U.S. dollars in financial reserves, expelling several of Russia’s largest banks from the SWIFT global payment system, imposing export controls aimed at limiting Russia’s access to advanced technologies, closing down their airspace and ports to Russian planes and ships, and instituting personal sanctions against senior Russian officials and high-profile tycoons. Worried Russians rushed to withdraw rubles from their banks, and the value of the ruble plunged on global markets just as the U.S. dollar had in the early 1970s.

The trust placed in the U.S. dollar as global reserve currency, backed by “the full faith and credit of the United States,” had finally been fully broken. Russian President Vladimir Putin said in a speech on March 16 that the U.S. and EU had defaulted on their obligations, and that freezing Russia’s reserves marks the end of the reliability of so-called first class assets. On March 23, Putin announced that Russia’s natural gas would be sold to “unfriendly countries” only in Russian rubles, rather than the euros or dollars currently used. Forty-eight nations are counted by Russia as “unfriendly,” including the United States, Britain, Ukraine, Switzerland, South Korea, Singapore, Norway, Canada and Japan.

Putin noted that more than half the global population remains “friendly” to Russia. Countries not voting to support the sanctions include two major powers – China and India – along with major oil producer Venezuela, Turkey, and other countries in the “Global South.” “Friendly” countries, said Putin, could now buy from Russia in various currencies.

On March 24, Russian lawmaker Pavel Zavalny said at a news conference that gas could be sold to the West for rubles or gold, and to “friendly” countries for either national currency or bitcoin.

DJ, Of course dumping the US$ link with energy trade so far did bring NATO wars to Libya, Iraq (etc). But the EU will NOT join the US and UK in a war with Russia...they simply need Russian energy...even if it will be paid-at the end-in Rubles...

and

DJ 

INTEL - Subscribers Only - Officers from NATO Countries Trapped In Mariupol; ASKING RUSSIA for Help to leave!

I think Hal Turner from time to time has realistic info....AM mentioned Macron/France asked Putin for help to get its DGSE-agents out...[url]https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/numerous-reports-u-s-army-general-captured-in-mariupol-with-azov-nazis[/url] or https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/numerous-reports-u-s-army-general-captured-in-mariupol-with-azov-nazis ; 

UPDATE 10:49 PM EDT, TUESDAY APRIL 5 --

I received an email tonight after my radio show, telling me that the Wikipedia page for General Roger L. Cloutier has been changed to say he DIED on March 28.  The images below were sent to me with that email:

also very likely...NATO was sending "advisors/instructors/observers" etc to Ukraine since 2014...

DJ Again-biden pushed for NATO expansion, the EU did not stop it (eventough they warned in 2008 it would bring war with Russia...). The US keeps pushing weapons into Ukraine...while the EU-de facto-NEEDS to end both this crisis and the sanctions...

[url]https://www.presstv.ir/Detail/2022/04/05/679752/Turkey-Hurriyet-newspaper-Syria-discussions-restoration-relations-[/url] or https://www.presstv.ir/Detail/2022/04/05/679752/Turkey-Hurriyet-newspaper-Syria-discussions-restoration-relations- ; 

Turkish media say Ankara is evaluating the possibility of starting talks with the Syrian government and that discussions are underway for new relations to be built between the two neighbors.

Turkey's Hurriyet newspaper, citing informed sources, said on Monday that discussions were taking place in the Turkish capital of Ankara on restoring normal relations.

DJ, Assad visited the UAE recently...the Arab world wants to see an end to the Syrian war-improve further relations with both Russia and China...(very likely accepting also payment in Yuan or Rupees). both Russia and Iran would welcome Turkey-Syria talks...

A solution could be (basically Turkish PKK) Kurds in the "sdf" could become part of the Syrian Arab Army...(but have a future in Syria-no longer fighting in Turkey...)  in return Syria, Russia, Iran "can clean up" area's still not under Assad/Syria control...DJ-this would include getting the US-steeling Syrian oil-out of the east and south of Syria...

It also may further help Iraq to get the US forces out there as well...Iraq parliament/government did ask the US to leave over and over...

[url]https://southfront.org/one-more-step-towards-global-war/[/url] or https://southfront.org/one-more-step-towards-global-war/ ; 

Formally, the sanctions are aimed at reducing trade between the EU and Russia. The authors expect that as a result, trade between the countries will decrease by an aggregate of 20 billion dollars a year.

However, an analysis of the substance of the sanctions indicates that they are not aimed at Russia but rather at the people of the European Union. A ban on coal imports is expected to raise electricity prices. This, combined with a shrinking market for machinery, equipment and high-tech goods, will inevitably lead to a reduction in production in EU countries and, consequently, to jobs cut, along with a rise in inflation.

These consequences are inevitable even if Russia does not impose retaliatory sanctions. However, on 5 March, President Putin sent a clear message that Russia intends to limit or even exports of food, fertilizers and possibly key energy resources to “unfriendly countries”.

If the sanctions war continues to unfold at this rate, it will have catastrophic consequences for EU citizens, up to food shortages. Living standards and disposable income in the EU have already fallen significantly since the Corona crisis started.

Leading Eurozone governments have injected hundreds of billions of dollars into the economy. At the same time, the level of production of goods and services has not risen symmetrically. There are simply no free markets. At the moment there is unprecedented inflation and rising prices.

It should also be borne in mind the huge strain on the social budgets of leading European countries due to the large numbers of refugees from the Middle East, Africa and now Ukraine.

DJ, Again-this is "f.ck the EU-part 2"...The idea is the EU will no longer trade with Russia, China, Asia but with the US...buying LNG at 3x the price of Russian energy...

I do-for that matter-better understand the US position (still in many ways global #1, trying to keep that position) but I do not understand anything anymore from EU politicians destroying the EU economy...

End of part 2