Gestalt #16 – SARS-2 Pandemic

   by monotreme1000 March 26, 2020 

False Prophets

There is a special place in Hell, imo, for people who use religion to lead their followers to their doom, both physical and moral.

 Jim Bakker, who has already been convicted of Fraud, is now accused of selling a dangerous substance and claiming that it will cure people infected with SARS2.

What a scumbag.

Whatever you thought of Jerry Falwell's values, there is no doubt that he was sincere. The same can not be said about his son, Jerry Falwell, Jr. Based on media reports, the son appears to be a weak-minded man heavily influenced by his wife who, again based on media reports, appears to be a greedy, stone-cold psychopath.

Jerry Falwell Jr. is now planning to reopen Liberty University. This will almost certainly result in large scale infections of students. They may not die, but they will infect their parents and grandparents, many of whom will die.

 What do you call someone who tries to make money knowing that it will result in the deaths of his followers? Christian does not come to mind.

By the way, we have heard surprisingly little from the Director of the NIH, Francis Collins, about the pandemic. Why is this? He is supposed to be both a scientist and a born-again Christian. Wouldn't this be a good time for him to say something, loudly?

The Third Peak

Northstar asked me what I thought about the SARS2 attack rate.

I don't really have a good answer for this question. We really don't have enough information yet to say what the R0 really is. However, in trying to get more information on this issue, I checked the CDC influenza web page. The number of laboratory-confirmed cases appears to be declining greatly. Yet, the number of patients with influenza-like (ILI) symptoms seems to be increasing, as represented by a third peak in one of the graphs.

 It is possible that this third peak of ILI actually represents SARS2 infections. Given that the plans to surveil SARS2 infections directly have apparently come to naught, like so many other things the CDC has promised, then this graph may be the best we have to estimate the rising tide of SARS2 infections in the US.

Waves of Death

While reading Laurie Garrett's twitter feed, I found an interesting graph cited by Eric Topol.

It compares the number of deaths over time from different countries. The trend for the US is going in the wrong direction. We can expect a heavy toll of death in this country. But it won't happen at the same time in every city.

 NYC is obviously in the worst situation right now. But the wave of death that will soon be breaking there will be repeated in many other US cities, just at later times. Cities that are at earlier stages in the pandemic should use this time to enact strict social distancing practices now. Don't wait until the wave of death comes to your city. It will be too late then.

Escape from New York

Long ago, I half kiddingly suggested that a sure sign that a pandemic was truly a disaster would be rich people fleeing NYC in helicopters.

This is actually happening, now. What I didn't predict was that they had so much money that they could pay for helicopter companies to shuttle provisions from NYC to the Hamptons, which is also happening, now.

I don't have a problem with rich people using their money to save themselves or even to make their stay more comfortable. But I cannot help contrasting the image of a helicopter filled with goodies from Zabars on its way to a mansion in the Hamptons with front-line health care workers in NYC wearing garbage bags because they can't get proper PPE.

So, hey rich people, maybe you could enjoy that fine imported cheese in your luxurious mansion in the Hamptons a bit more if you were to set up a fund to help health care workers risking their lives to save others in NYC get some proper PPE. And maybe pay their hospital bills when they get sick. What do you think?