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Gestalt#34 – SARS-2 Pandemic

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Tabitha111 View Drop Down
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    Posted: January 03 2021 at 10:56am

by monotreme1000, Jan 3, 2021


Rationale for closing international airports to passenger travel


Back in January, I argued for closing US international airports to prevent the spread of SARS-2 to the US. Had this been done, hundreds of thousands of American lives would have been spared and our economy would have been saved from the devastation we now experience.

 Once again, I argue that we should close our international airports to prevent new strains of SARS-2 from entering our country. But once again, politicians, public health officials and senior scientists are using their power to keep the borders open.


I have noticed that there is a pattern to the "open borders" proponents "keep the airports open no matter what" argument.

First, the risks from the virus are minimized: "It's probably no more dangerous than X". In January, "X" was the flu. Now, "X" is the original SARS-2. When it becomes apparent that the virus is/has become more dangerous, the argument switches to "It's probably already here" - without evidence.

Next, with our borders wide open the virus does enter. At that point, the open borders crowd says "See, it's here now. No point in closing the barn door after the horse is out". This is a misleading and false argument.

Here's why. First, with open borders, there will be many separate seeds from which future epidemics will bloom. The fewer the seeds, the fewer the brush fires we will need to control. At the very least, by restricting the flow of the virus into the US we will slow its expansion and buy time to vaccinate more Americans. Closing our borders will save lives. Leaving them open is tantamount to deliberate murder, in my opinion.

The second argument against open borders is the near certainty that we have not seen the last of the new, dangerous mutant strains of SARS-2. All living things have new mutations with each generation. Most of these are neutral and have no functional effect. But by exposing more people to SARS-2, we increase the odds that a mutation which favors viral replication in humans occurs. Such a mutation will then come under positive selection and will then spread rapidly within the human population.

Please bear in mind that as we vaccinate more and more people SARS-2 will come under selection to escape the immune response generated by our vaccine.

If I am wrong, what are the consequences?

The travel industry will be negatively affected. That's it. Cargo with essential goods can continue to be transported. We only need to stop passenger travel.

If I am right, what are the consequences?

Imagine a future strain of SARS-2 that it is more infectious. That almost certainly has already happened. Imagine a future strain of SARS-2 that kills young people the same way the original SARS-2 killed old people. There are hints that this may be happening (in South Africa and Los Angeles). Imagine a strain of SARS-2 that escapes the vaccine we just so laboriously created. That almost certainly will happen at some point. Any sane risk/benefit analysis would conclude that we should close international airports to passenger travel for the foreseeable future.


I welcome any comments that can show me what I am missing.


Scientist or Politician?


There has been controversy about changing statements by senior scientists and public health officials regarding the pandemic. Most notably, Senator Rubio has accused Dr. Fauci of, with the best of intentions, lying about serious issues. Let me say first that anyone, even the best scientists, can be mistaken.

I remember when, in an early news conference, Dr. Fauci said that he did not think asymptomatic carriers would drive this pandemic. He was clearly wrong about this. And we should be clear, that being wrong about this had very serious negative consequences. For example, he then also said that people should not be wearing masks in public. This admonition was repeated by the Surgeon General (Dr. Adams).

As a direct result of this incorrect information, many Americans became infected. Some of them died. However, being wrong is not the same thing as lying. Did the fact that there was a shortage of masks tip the scales in advising the public not to wear them? I'm not sure. More recently, Dr. Fauci explicitly stated that polling numbers influenced what he is telling the American public:


From the NY Times, December 24, 2020


In a telephone interview the next day, Dr. Fauci acknowledged that he had slowly but deliberately been moving the goal posts. He is doing so, he said, partly based on new science, and partly on his gut feeling that the country is finally ready to hear what he really thinks."


[snip]


“When polls said only about half of all Americans would take a vaccine, I was saying herd immunity would take 70 to 75 percent,” Dr. Fauci said. “Then, when newer surveys said 60 percent or more would take it, I thought, ‘I can nudge this up a bit,’ so I went to 80, 85.


Changing your opinion in the face of new information is the right thing to do. But tailoring your statements to what you think the public will accept is wrong. For a scientist to do this is inexcusable. Full stop.


Whenever I hear Dr. Fauci make pronouncements now, I must ask myself: "Is this what he really believes? Or is this what he thinks is politically expedient to say, at this moment in time."


I no longer trust him.


Xi Xinping's desperate attempt to control the SARS-2 origin story


There have been numerous reports of how Xi Jinping continues to try to hide the origins of SARS-2.


From the AP


"The government is monitoring scientists’ findings and mandating that the publication of any research first be approved by a new task force managed by China’s cabinet under direct orders from President Xi Jinping, according to internal documents obtained by The AP. A rare leak from within the government, the dozens of pages of unpublished documents confirm what many have long suspected: The clampdown comes from the top.


The AP’s investigation was based on interviews with Chinese and foreign scientists and officials, along with public notices, leaked emails and the unpublished documents from China’s State Council and the Chinese Centre for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). It reveals a pattern of government secrecy and top-down control that has been evident throughout the pandemic.


“They only select people they can trust, those that they can control,” said an expert who works with the China CDC, declining to be identified out of a fear of retribution."


China has stonewalled any investigation into the origins of SARS-2 by outside scientists. The WHO is supposed to investigate. But given the close control of the WHO by Xi Jinping, it seems unlikely that this will result in anything being reported that Xi Jinping does not personally approve.

'A man who does not think and plan long ahead will find trouble right at his door.'
--Confucius

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote AndyPOW Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 03 2021 at 12:07pm

The obvious conclusion when reviewing statements and actions by top officials from the beginning is they want it to spread. 

"it isn't airborne"

"gone by easter"

"expect only 60,000 deaths"

"masks are dangerous"

the emails of HHS officials

The WHO dragging its feet on declaring a pandemic

Only some direct Chinese flights were stopped, not travel that originated and China and went through a connecting airport like Seoul, etc. . . So this was little more than a weak halfway measure that made for good cover/publicity.

and so on.

"Every thing looks great, until you think." Dr. Al Bartlett
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KiwiMum View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (2) Thanks(2)   Quote KiwiMum Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 03 2021 at 1:52pm

If you want proof that closing the borders work, then just look to us here in NZ. We have no community cases of Covid. We have no restrictions or social distancing. No masks. It's life as normal here. All incomers are put straight into guarded managed isolation for 14 and have to return 2 negative Covid tests before they are released. Every case is genome tested. We've had 25 deaths so far. When we went into lockdown for 5 weeks in March 2020, Covid was in the community but we all stayed at home and it's gone. Since then we've had a few cases escape quarantine, normally via a worker at the facility, and we've had outbreaks in the community, but each time we've had a localised lockdown and once again, it's gone. 

Lockdowns do work but only if run hand in hand with border controls. The other big difference here is that all Covid related testing and care is free of charge. Tests are readily available to anyone who wants one. Covid is high priority here.

You can't fix stupid.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote carbon20 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 03 2021 at 2:32pm

Originally posted by KiwiMum KiwiMum wrote:

If you want proof that closing the borders work, then just look to us here in NZ. We have no community cases of Covid. We have no restrictions or social distancing. No masks. It's life as normal here. All incomers are put straight into guarded managed isolation for 14 and have to return 2 negative Covid tests before they are released. Every case is genome tested. We've had 25 deaths so far. When we went into lockdown for 5 weeks in March 2020, Covid was in the community but we all stayed at home and it's gone. Since then we've had a few cases escape quarantine, normally via a worker at the facility, and we've had outbreaks in the community, but each time we've had a localised lockdown and once again, it's gone. 

Lockdowns do work but only if run hand in hand with border controls. The other big difference here is that all Covid related testing and care is free of charge. Tests are readily available to anyone who wants one. Covid is high priority here.

Same here Kiwimum,you just have told laugh at all the idiots that say masks and lockdowns don't work,its the only thing that has ever worked throughout history.....

Everything we hear is an opinion, not a fact. Everything we see is a perspective, not the truth.🖖

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