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Online Discussion: Tracking new emerging diseases and the next pandemic since 2005; Coronavirus COVID-19 Pandemic Discussion Forum.

Gestalt#35 – SARS-2 Pandemic

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Tabitha111 View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Tabitha111 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Topic: Gestalt#35 – SARS-2 Pandemic
    Posted: January 18 2021 at 4:56am

by: monotreme1000 | January 17, 2021


There are at least 3 new strains of SARS-2 with functional mutations, B.1.1.7 (UK), B.1.351 (South Africa), B.1.1.248 (Brazil).

There is good evidence that each of these strains contains one or mutations that make it more infectious than the original SARS-2 virus. Mask and social distancing policies that worked with the original SARS-2 have failed with the new strains. In countries where the new strains have taken hold, only the most draconian policies will be effective in stopping exponential spread.

Although there has been suggested that the currently available vaccines will be effective against the UK strain, there is less certainty that this will be true against the South African and Brazilian strains. Indeed, there is evidence in Brazil that previous infection with the original SARS-2 strain does NOT protect against the new Brazilian strain.

We are assured that drug companies can quickly switch to a new vaccine, if necessary, due to mRNA vaccine technology. This is true, but is a misleading statement. It implies that there will be no problem in adapting to the changing virus. This is almost certainly false. 

In less than a year, three new strains of SARS-2 with functional changes have emerged. Each of these strains has not stopped mutating. Hence, producing new vaccines is a moving target. There are almost certainly other new strains emerging, some perhaps in the United States. How many new vaccines can we rapidly produce and deploy? Even producing and deploying one vaccine has proved challenging, to say the least.

We should do the best we can with vaccines. But these will not be enough. Passenger travel bans are the only answer. How many people will have to die before politicians and public health leaders accept this?


Scientists in the United States invented most of the sequencing technologies currently used to identify new strains of SARS-2. Yet, we have done relatively little sequencing of SARS-2 compared to other countries such as the UK? Why?

Francis Collins, head of the NIH, has an enormous budget and has tremendous expertise and contacts in the sequencing community. He has failed to do his job and apply the money he controls to an obvious need.

Eric Lander has recently been appointed top scientific advisor to President-Elect Biden. He currently directs the Broad Institute, one of the best sequencing centers in the US. I sincerely hope that he will use his position to make sure that the US fully utilizes its resources to sequence large numbers of SARS-2 samples, analyze the results, and give President-Elect Biden honest input about the multiplying strains of SARS-2.


I try to avoid discussing politics except as it relates to the pandemic. Nonetheless, some people have wondered what my politics is and whether it influences my thinking. In fact, it is the other way around. I have no loyalty to any political party or politician. I abhor cults of personality and consider them dangerous to our democracy. I have voted for both Republicans and Democrats. I make my decisions about whom to vote for based on which politician is likely to do the most good at the time that they are running for office. My opinion about them may change in subsequent elections.

I am totally opposed to any hint of totalitarian government, whether it be Communist or Fascist. I also consider anarchists to be a threat to this country, both Antifa and Boogaloo Boys.

Anyone who proposes to usurp the rights of the citizens in this country, whether through violence or lies is my enemy. Anyone who supports the Constitution and the Rule of Law is my friend.

[Apologies for mixing Greek and Roman myths and stretching their meaning].

'A man who does not think and plan long ahead will find trouble right at his door.'

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Dutch Josh View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 18 2021 at 5:58am

Here in NL discussion on further restrictions (curfews 20pm-4am, NO visitors at all) is frustrated by our government still not stopping air travel from several Dutch airports to several UK airports (over 20 per day vice versa !!!). 

How can you convince people they have to stay inside their houses after 20 hrs-supermarkets so far often open till 22 hrs-to spread the number of customers, to have NO visitors if travel with the UK is not stopped ? If "the leaders" are leading in words not in action? 

-We have an increasing number of vaccinations-there is growing concern over the variants-but that is in words-not deeds. It may take that much time before action is taken again becoming to little to late...

-In my opinion the SA variant South Africa) is a far bigger risk then the UK variant-wich the UK seem to be getting a grip on-by NPI. (Vaccines did not stop the UK variant in the UK, the lockdown did !) The SA variant has THREE mutations on the RBD (Receptor Binding Domain) the UK just one...does this mean the SA variant is 3 times more infectious-not very likely, but it may mean it is more infectious. And the SA variant is widespread all over the globe-often in lower numbers-but in Switzerland it may be more spread then the UK variant (we even have trainlinks with Switzerland, people drive six hours with their car-wintersports...

The B (Brazil) variant may be close family of the SA variant...vaccinations create variants...we are not out of the problem.

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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EdwinSm, View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote EdwinSm, Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 18 2021 at 6:35am

On another thread there was talk about the Chinese vaccine only being just over 50% effective in tests in Brazil, but getting much higher rates in Turkey.   I have not proof for this (ie wild speculation on my part - so treat with caution) but I wonder if the Brazilian strain is part of the reason for poor test results in that country.  

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carbon20 View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote carbon20 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 18 2021 at 3:26pm

If the vaccine is only 50% effective ,

does that mean the virus has more chance of mutating to resist the vaccine,

Going on the premise ,

if doesn't kill you , it will make you stronger.....

If that is the case we are in deep s..t,

take care all 😷😉

Everything we hear is an opinion, not a fact. Everything we see is a perspective, not the truth.🖖

Marcus Aurelius
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