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Tracking the next pandemic: Avian Flu Talk

JAKARTA TEEN DIES - TAMIFLU NO HELP

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    Posted: February 01 2006 at 7:38pm
Teenager dies of suspected bird flu

The Jakarta Post, Bandung
February 02, 2006


A 15-year-old boy whose results from local tests
came back positive for bird flu died at Hasan Sadikin
Hospital in Bandung on Wednesday morning.

If the local lab tests are confirmed by the WHO-accredited lab in Hong
Kong, it would be Indonesia's 15th human fatality from bird flu.

The teenager, a resident of Padalarang in Bandung regency, was admitted
to the hospital Monday with a high fever and in severe respiratory
distress; classic bird flu symptoms.

"His blood sample was sent immediately to the Heath Ministry's research
and development bureau and the results, delivered verbally, confirmed he
had bird flu," hospital director Cissy Rachiana told The Jakarta Post on
Wednesday.

The teenager, identified only as "Y", was the second suspected bird flu
patient to have died at the hospital in a month. In mid-January, a three-
year-old boy died of bird flu. The native of Indramayu was being treated
at the hospital with his sister and parents, who were all released last
Saturday.

The head of the hospital's infectious diseases unit, Hadi Yusuf, said Y,
who was referred to Hasan Sadikin by Mitra Kasih Hospital in Cimahi,
entered the hospital with serious breathing problems and a high fever.

"We used a ventilator, gave him Tamiflu and performed
all the necessary medical treatment, but God had a different
plan," Hadi said.


According to Bandung regency's health office, some 20 chickens
reportedly died near Y's house shortly before he became ill.

His father, Sriyono, said the chickens began to die about 10 days ago just
10 meters from the house.

"My wife complained about the chickens but my neighbor ignored it,"
Sriyono said.

He said his son had suffered from a high fever since
Saturday
and over-the-counter drugs did not help. The boy
was then taken to Mitra Kasih Hospital in Cimahi, which
referred him to Hasan Sadikin on Monday.

fileid=20060202.D09&irec=8">http://www.thejakartapost.com/
detailnational.asp?fileid=20060202.D09&irec=8


Edited by Rick
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 01 2006 at 9:26pm
Tamiflu is only effective if administrated during the first 48 hours. If he got sick on Saturday, and went to the hospital Monday, it may have been slightly more than 48 hours.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Hope Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 01 2006 at 9:32pm

Has Tamiflu been reported effective on any cases so far?? (Within the 48 hours.)  I would assume it has been or the urge to create the stockpile would not be be so great.  Please respond if you have heard and site cases...

 

 

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 01 2006 at 9:46pm
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 01 2006 at 10:34pm
There was a strong response for the good in Turkey when administered on time.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 02 2006 at 10:59am
The important point is that Tamiflu is not 100%
effective.

Nobody will guarantee that because it was never intended as a cure, it
simply helps your body fight off the virus.

The Vietnamese doctor that used Tamilfu in a timely fashion a few
months with additonal doses, still lost both of his patients.

Bottom line is - try not to catch the virus, use masks or isolation if
possible. Even if you catch it and survive, long term health problems are
not unkown, as in Vietman, and here a few years ago here in Toronto with
SARS. Once the WHO increases raises it's pandemic warning again, you
won't be able to beg borrow or steal an N-95. The companies that make
them are at 100% capacity.

Some doctors and nurses who wore N-95's and were double-gowned, still
got sick and died. Granted they were in the thick of things. For others,
the masks and gowns worked.

-------
Posted 2/1/2006 8:32 PM
USA TODAY

"Today we have a just-in-time delivery system for
masks, syringes, for IV bags," he says. "Most people
don't realize that 80% of the drugs we use in this
country come from offshore. Right now, the two
manufacturers of N95 masks in this country are
operating on 100% capacity. They have no surge
capacity.

We will run out quickly of all these things.
And at that time, we'll be dealing with the equivalent
of a 1918 health care system."

Michael Osterholm, director of the Center for
Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the
University of Minnesota.



(cut & paste URL manually)

http://www.usatoday.com/news/health/2006-02-01-flu-
meeting_x.htm

Edited by Rick
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote jackson Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 02 2006 at 11:08am
This is a very old news story I found about Tamiflu-resistant strains of bird flu. The reason I am posting it is because the article claims that Relenza was still effective to treat those strains.  No one has really mentioned Relenza and I know it is not the preferred treatment becuase it requires inhalation,and therefore, can't be used by some people with asthma or breathing problems. 
Has anyone also gotten Relenza to use if needed? I haven't heard much about it, so I was wondering what people thought about having a supply of Tamiflu and Relenza. ( I know it probably won't hurt to have more than one medication available, but do you think it is a waste of money?)

Here is the article , i can't get the link to work:
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/9697444/
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 02 2006 at 11:21am
Relenza needs to be inhaled.

Simply put, even if we had something that was 100% effective, they simply
don't have the time to physcially produce the stuff. Check out Dr. Niman's
remarks about this issue. He sent this to me the other day.

-------

"Another worry is that when a pandemic strain of H5N1 avian flu appears,
virtually all of the world's flu-vaccine-development and production
capacity will shift to producing a vaccine against it, which will leave us
vulnerable to the non-pandemic strain(s) that causes the usual annual, or
seasonal, flu. The annual flu bug kills, on average, 30,000-40,000
Americans each year -- even when we have an effective, widely used
vaccine.

An optimistic estimate is that there is sufficient flu vaccine capacity
worldwide for approximately 450 million people -- but that calculation
assumes that two inoculations of 15 micrograms each would confer
protection, whereas in a recent trial (of a vaccine against the current
H5N1 strain) two doses of 90 micrograms were required. Other things
being equal, that suggests that the true capacity might be closer to .


There is enough for only 75 million people
(The world's population is over six billion.)"


Henry I. Miller, M.D.
The Hoover Institution
Stanford University

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