Tracking the next pandemic: Avian Flu Talk |
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Bladerunner
Valued Member Joined: February 20 2006 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 7 |
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Posted: February 20 2006 at 7:35pm |
Hello to all, I am new to this board, but not to a preparedness mindset. However, I have to say this is the first time I have focused on a specfic threat to a great degree. I am still learning, but it ocurrs to me that I may have to continue to work during a pandemic to continue my income. I know there are possible scenarios where our economic system is so damaged that it's unlikely that banks/mortgage companies, utilities, etc will care much about whether we continue to make our monthly payments (in the short term) and will be happy to suspend payments until after the pandemic passes and our economy resumes. However, consider that banks, utilities, etc don't suspend payments and threaten with foreclosure/repossession. What is everyones thoughts on this latter scenario? Will you just stop going to work and accept the risks that these consequences will not occur? Or will you take precautions (masks, gloves, suits) and go to work? How do you do simple things like relieving yourself or eating lunch and drinking water/fluids? I suppose you could hydrate with military protective masks with drinking attachments, but these masks are not disposable and would require daily decontamination and filter change (which would be cost prohibitive) If you go to work, what types of decontamination procedures would be effective at the end of the day when you return home? Do you merely dispose of your mask, gloves, etc in the back yard trash cans (bleach solution,etc). How do you disinfect goggles and your skin (face, etc), do you just hose yourself down in the yard (could be chilly in the winter) with soap and water or do you walk naked into your house and shower? What's the risk of contamination in the latter? What's the risk of infection from your clothing worn under Tyvek suits etc or in your vehicle (cloth seats)? Is the Avian Flu virus a weak virus in open air and exposed to sunlight. I apologize for rambling a little here, but the decision of whether to continue to work may be one of life and death. It's more than a little scary to me that my employer (US Government/military) hasn't said a word about any plans for their civilian work force in the event of a pandemic. I know that many government workers are mission essential, but most of us have roles in national defense that will be irrelevant in the context of an Avian Flu Pandemic. I am not a first responder and I am no longer part of the uniformed military (retired). I have no idea what my employers reaction would be if I just said I am not coming in. I suppose at the end of the day, I would rather be safe at home than risking the life of my family and myself by reporting for work. Just curious what thoughts members of this board may have on the subject. |
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Blade, welcome aboard! You asked some fabulous questions! Decon... a problem I have spent a great deal of brain cells on. So here's my take: Outside (or garage, or camper) - strip and discard clothing into a water bleach solution in a plastic tub. Shower thoroughly, still outside. Don clean clothing, sack, towel, whatever. Don a procedure mask (the cheap thingies). Enter house. No one allowed physical contact with "outlander". Outlander will be treated as if he/she were indeed contagious. Hope it helps. A massive problem with no easy answers. SZ |
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Tansau
V.I.P. Member Joined: February 17 2006 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 126 |
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I work in the network security and support field, and every year during flu
season our working protocal is the same. I stock up on antibacterial, alcohol-based hand sanitizer gell for myself and my crew (we have to touch lots of keyboards); know to keep hands away from eyes, nose and mouth; and wash hands frequently and thoroughly. I have a feeling we'll be busy deep into any kind of pandemic. For the last few months we've been honing skills related to setting up and supporting telecommuters to either take their computers home or to access their office computers from their home system. Once schools start closing, offices will start seeing worker dropout. I've put contengency plans in place so that people on my networks can continue to work from home for as long as they have power and 'Net access. Therefore, I'm planning on working non-stop through whatever comes. |
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Thomas Angel
V.I.P. Member Joined: February 16 2006 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 622 |
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I don't have an employer as I am a Private Builder/Contractor, but things will come to a screeching halt for me when "the ballon goes up". There would be no way I would be "going into work" when this thing hits. Most people are going to go inside their homes and lock the doors when this event ocurrs until they run out out of things essential. That means the electricity is going to shut off in short order, telecommunications are going to stop, news broadcast are ceasing entirely... In short, everything is going to "short-circut". It's best, honestly, it's required, in my opinion, that we take care of our families above all else. |
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There is no one correct answer for everyone. You'll need to spend time digesting a lot of information. What we know about the virus is changing. New information, within the past few days suggests that the viurs is mutating and becoming more resilent. This is a learning process for everyone. Use this and other sites to do your Recon, prioritize your goals and your questions. As the enemy adapts so must we. The normal rules of engagement don't apply. The following site has some information that might give you a good overview. http://www.geftakysassembly.com/Articles/NewDirections/Pande mic.htm Edited by Rick |
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Bladerunner
Valued Member Joined: February 20 2006 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 7 |
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Guys Thanks to all. I am becoming more and more convinced the solution is to just isolate my family at home and wait for a pandemic to pass. The primary flaw in this is being able to defend my home in the event of food riots and other civil unrest. My wife is on board with preparing, but she hasn' t bought in to the point she is willing to sell our home and move to a rural location where we could be more isolated and self sufficient. The trick is determining the decision point. If you guess too late, it may mean infection and spreading it to family. If you decide too early, you risk unemployment and a possible financial catastrophe and there is always the possibility there may be no Avian Flu pandemic after an initial scare/false alarm which would label you as a paranoid nut with a seriously impacted (negative) career. This is why I think preparing for this is far more difficult than preparing for a world altering cataclysm, known in the zombie fearing world as TEOTWAKI. I am a government worker employed by the military and I am also retired from the military. One of the scary things to me, is that there are no visibile plans to continue work and still protect the military and civilian work force and their families. I haven't figured the latter out yet. I will still receive a retirement check no matter what (unless the entire country collapses), but it covers just a little more than my mortgage payment. Worst case, I could survive for many months with what I have stored (food, water, fuel) and my own personal protection tools and pay my mortgage. I have enough savings that I would have a nest egg to start a new job search after the crisis has passed. |
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calendula
Valued Member Joined: February 18 2006 Status: Offline Points: 345 |
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Bladerunner: I understand your concerns, we had a decision to make as well. We own a home in the city, mortgage payments etc, but we did invest in a camper a used one, we took a loan and bought it. It fits 6 people and we can take it to a remote location for isolation whe BF strikes. I am prepared to stay in isolation in that camper for 6 months, we have weapons ( my husband was in the military) ammunition and a plan to survive if it will take longer. I think a cheap camper will help you become mobile and take off to safer unpopulated areas.
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I am not here to reason, I am here to create"
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Welcome Bladerunner, I look forward to seeing more of your ideas and thoughts. I wonder how safe we will be in the woods if the cats, dogs, pigs ,crows, bears, get the H5N1. Even fish according to Joe. IMO your safest in your neighborhoods, people who know you and you know, makes it easier to defend someone you know. This is sure developing in the last two weeks!! |
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calendula
Valued Member Joined: February 18 2006 Status: Offline Points: 345 |
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Only one tip though, make sure your friends and neighbors that you trust so much do not become the friends and neighbors in the 1940's in Germany...Poland...Austria. IT is the isolated farm for me, I rather fend off wild animals. Historically human beings have a way of mutating with their behaviors when the going gets tough....friends are adversaries, and neighbors are enemies if it comes down to survival. Difficult decision my husband and I have pondered on the same question, stick close to humans during this crisis? great question for deep thought.
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I am not here to reason, I am here to create"
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Welcome Bladerunner, Personal Protective Clothing/Equipment (PPE) and Decontamination are my forte. If you will be around (within 1 meter) people/birds/animals that are infected with the H5N1 virus, your goal is to not become contaminated and infected (sorry for being so obvious). This is a big subject that will take some more research on your part but it appears you already have a good start. Best case is don't be around sick folk. Next, if you will be near contamination, cover yourself top to bottom: Tyvek coveralls with hood, eye protection goggles, good N95 mask, nitrile gloves, durable show covers. Remove before entering your home/car. Wear new PPE daily. If you are caring for a sick person, that person should wear a mask to reduce the amount of shedding of virus. The care giver should wear complete PPE. A person sick with H5 will be very sick. All bodily fluids should be avoided and there will be plenty of them. Ask a nurse or doctor about 'isolation technique' and 'universal precautions' for bodily fluids. Protection is not difficult with good equipment and information. See our Medical section there is alot of good posts. Please send me a Personal Message or email any time for questions about PPE etc. Welcome. |
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Bladerunner, welcome aboard. Might I suggest to take some of your savings and buy gold & silver coins. Right now, we are in the beginning stage of a bull market for precious metals (PM), so, if the worst is avoided somehow, you have increased your net worth. If the bug hits in a serious way, you have some financial means to either purchase items or to re-start your life once the crisis passes. Historically, this is excactly what PM does: It protects your purchasing power!!! We have not talked too much about inflation here in this forum, but, once products become scarce, prices will rise. How far, nobody knows. What will somebody be willing to pay for a loaf of bread when they have hungry children at home??? Hate to think like that, but you know it's going to happen.
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dc01
Valued Member Joined: March 04 2006 Status: Offline Points: 8 |
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Hi, I am a new member and just read your question. I just finished re-reading a book, 'The Hot Zone' by Richard Preston. It is the true sotry of the discovery of 'Ebola Reston'; a type of Ebola virus that is 100% fatal to monkeys and found its way into Reston VA. In it, he outlines the government's procedures for protecting their workers from deadly viruses while working directly with them. At the time he wrote the book in 1994, the procedure was to wear surgical scrubs (no underwear) under negatively pressured biological space-suits. They had rubber gloves, which were covered by really heavy gloves and big rubber boots. The gloves and the boots were taped to seal the ankles and wrists, and they wrapped extra tape around the ankle so they could quickly tape up a tear in their suits. Their air supply comes in from hoses suspended in the ceiling. When the workers are done working in the Level 4 Bio-Containment Area they have to stand in a disinfectant shower for several minutes, stand under ultra-violet light (which de-composes the virus) etc... If anyone is suspected of exposure they put them in a lockdown medical facilty called the "Slammer". The closest a civilian could come to this would be a Tyvek suit with a hood and a respirator Conceivably the Tyvek suit could be sprayed down with bleach and water after going "out" (make sure That's okay with the Tyvek material and won't break it down). This would be really hard to do by yourself. Then you would put your scrubs in a bag, spray that with bleach, put them in another bag and spray that as well. The procedure I outlined above is the one that USAMRIID used to handle what they call Level 4 "hot agents" . One of those hot agents is Marburg virus that is contagious to humans, and has a 25% death rate. Another is Ebola Reston, which will cause an immune response in humans but will not make them sick. It is very close, from a mutation point to being able to infect humans. In this way, it is a lot like bird flu; but Ebola Reston pops up every once in a while in a monkey population and then disappears. The avian flu just keeps on coming. What is very disturbing to me is that the avian flu has a death rate of 50% and has jumped species from birds to mammals. This is a very scary uncontained 'hot agent'; and our government is really slow in responding. I can't imagine you or anyone else going to work every day in a Tyvek suit with a respirator, and having your wife suit up to spray you down where you can't reach when you get home on a day by day basis. It just ain't happenin'. I think it is really important to remember that we are all in the same boat. There are very few people out there who can afford to miss any significant amount of work. But if this actually happens, that won't matter very much. What will matter are the people that we love. I know that I could be financially ruined by this, but then again so could everybody else. I did see somebody out there recommending we invest in certain pharmaceutical research company stocks. Good Lord. I just think that no one is talking about it because they're afraid if they do it will be real. It is just to scary. My husband died of leukemia several years ago -- we had an understanding. He read the financial timesvery close to the end. A lot of people on this web site are not talking at all! If the time comes to stop going to work, you'll know when it is, and you won't look foolish. We work to take care of our families, after all. |
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striper
Valued Member Joined: February 25 2006 Status: Offline Points: 38 |
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I can login to work, from home. I am covered there. It is to be seen whether the manager inisists on staff showing up till the govt. orders businesses to shutdown their buildings.
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move to a rural location where we could be more isolated and self sufficient.(quote) I am in rural area and I can tell you we have just as much difficulty as the next person.... Welcome aboard..and excellent question, this is one of those questions that keeps coming up over and over again...and I,m glad it does... Each of us will have to take our steps in quarintine one small step at a time...I have school aged children and if I pull them out of school to fast I am sure someone will be a knocking at my door, but when is it to late to take those precautions... And with all of us in different parts of the world, one persons time to hide may be anothers time to get last minute preps.. Now as for working read up on the 1918 pandemic alot of people did not show up for there jobs and those that could were paid alot of money to dig holes for mass graves..they had to bring out of college the 3-4 year med students to fill the roll as doctors...alot of front line workers died of this and with the over flow of sick people....well you get my drift... Best thing to do is read read read and keep updated on things going on around you...I found out the hard way the holes in my preps when hydro was down for 6.5 hours...be prepared for the worst case scenario and if it is a mild pandemic you will have enough to help neighbours and freinds and extra family members...and most places of employment have been asked to put a pandemic plan intpo place , if your place of employment does not have one yet you can google the information and I would recomend taking copies into your employer and ask if the information can be reviewed..include a few of your co-workers if they are reading up on this..or inform them of your intentions and ask if they would join you in puuting a plan into place.... |
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Avian Flu Pandemic: Companies Should Prepare Now, Experts Warn - 02/13/2006 Businesses and communities must prepare to be "self-contained" in the event of a flu pandemic, as the nation's health care system likely would be overwhelmed and regional cooperation could be crippled, according to the director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. "In this planning scenario, we are operating under the assumption that local planning has to be where the action is at," CDC Director Julie Gerberding, M.D., told attendees of ORC Worldwide's quarterly meeting in Washington. Gerberding pointed to estimates that a flu pandemic could infect one in three people, killing 2 million Americans and placing three-quarters of a million people in intensive care units with ventilators – far beyond the nation's current health care capacity. In the event of a flu pandemic, CDC believes businesses would play a key role in protecting employees' health and safety as well as in limiting the negative impact to the economy and society. "We have to gear up and do what is necessary to prepare, and local planning – including the role businesses play – is critical to these efforts," she said. To help employers prepare for a possible flu pandemic, CDC has developed a checklist that includes actions they can take to plan for the impact of a flu pandemic on their businesses and on their employees and customers. Among those actions, the checklist advises employers to:
Gerberding also invited business leaders to participate in CDC's global health protection network in order to have quick access to critical health information. "A large number of corporate entities are now linked to us electronically," she said. "I'd like to hear from any of you who would like to be included in our list of real-time information dissemination." More information is available at a CDC Web site dedicated to the subject: http://www.cdc.gov/flu/avian. Flu Pandemic Certain to Occur Gerberding's comments were echoed by Michael Osterholm, Ph.D., associate director of the Department of Homeland Security's National Center for Food Protection and Defense. Osterholm warned company health professionals that the time to prepare is now, because a flu pandemic is certain to occur. "It's not a question of 'if,' but of 'when,'" Osterholm asserted. "Pandemics are like earthquakes, hurricanes and Tsunamis – they occur." Osterholm outlined the following scenario in the event of a global flu pandemic:
While the dangers of an imminent avian flu pandemic are real, he cautioned it is impossible to foresee whether the strain currently circling the globe will mutate into a source of infection for humans. He also estimated that 95 to 98 percent of the world's population likely would survive such a pandemic. Just-in-Time Delivery Makes Businesses Vulnerable Businesses are especially vulnerable to the effects of a possible flu pandemic, Osterholm noted, now that the just-in-time global delivery system has become a fixture of the world economy. Because many companies have reduced expenses by relying on the immediate delivery of raw materials – often from far-away places – the economic consequences of a pandemic are likely to be immediate, profound and universal. As a result, Osterholm advised employers to address business continuity plans and logistics as they prepare for a possible flu pandemic. "Providing your employees and their families with comprehensive, current and authoritative communication" is another critical role companies can play to help minimize the disruption of a flu pandemic, Osterholm said. Osterholm, who also is the director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy and professor in the School of Public Health at the University of Minnesota, advised those interested in additional information to consult his organization's Web site at http://www.cidrap.umn.edu. - Josh Cable
teehee I have one saved...I hope this helps... |
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The choices might be taken out of your hands. Read the following.
http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=viewArticle&c ode= %20SC20060206&articleId=1897 |
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sheilad1
advanced Member Joined: March 04 2006 Status: Offline Points: 22 |
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Will we be able to go outside? Will we be able to go out and get the mail if we only walk on concrete and watch where we walk? Will we be able to cook on the patio? |
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and if your mailman has sneezed on your mail and you touch it...and you find out the next day he has died of the avian flu...so you have avoided the bird pooh on the concrete but you opened your mail and hummmm... And welcome sheilad1 |
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sheilad1
advanced Member Joined: March 04 2006 Status: Offline Points: 22 |
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Thanks for the welcome. I am 85-90% stocked for 8 people for 6 months. Thanksj for the info on the sneezing mailman. My questions are all about going out. I am sure I am missing things. What are your thoughts about ... Mail: What if I open the mail at the mailbox with rubber gloves on? I have also considered having the PO hold my mail until it all passes and paying my bills via automatic payment from my checking account. Trash - take it out 1x per month with rubber gloves in and back. Walk the dogs - I don't think booties are enough. Much of their body touches the ground. I thought I would have them go on pads, in the garage and throw it in the trash which will go out (for as long as it is picked up) once a month per above. Cooking? When we lose power I have a solar oven (I live in a hot southern state) and will cook outside on the patio, with shoe covers on. Also have plenty of heat cells and a small cook top for indoor cooking. When we all get together (in my home) all but one are local. That one is driving from NY when the first US human to human case is reported. What procedure should we follow when he comes in. I was thinking he should leave his clothes outside, enter through the upstairs bedroom and take a hot shower and remain upstairs for 48 hours (chose that arbitrarily). Any suggestions are appreciated. -Sheila |
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Hi, Sheilad1 Welcome aboard. For your travelling family member: People can carry the virus for up to 8 days before they get sick, some estimates are saying up to 12. Please take that into consideration. I would think he needs to be in quarantine for 14 days to keep everybody safe or he needs to come earlier. As for the mail, put the outer paper in the garbage and run a small UV light over the actual mail. You can get them for about $8. glad to hear that you're thinking about your dog. I'm afraid that very many people will abandon their pets. Looking forward to your input.
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sheilad1
advanced Member Joined: March 04 2006 Status: Offline Points: 22 |
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Thanks for the info. Where can I buy that UV light? I really appreciate the help. About "comimg earlier" what is "earlier" before it hits the US .. that could be weeks too early -- SARS never really got here. -Sheila |
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