The virus story-where’s it headed?

Emergence and Reemergence of "New" Influenza A Virus in Humans

http://www.cdc.gov/ncidod/eid/vol4no3/webster.htm

Over the past two and a half centuries, 10 to 20 human influenza pandemics have swept the globe; the most devastating, the so-called Spanish flu of 1918 to 1919, caused more than 20 million deaths and affected more than 200 million people. Both pandemics probably originated from aquatic birds.

Since the first human influenza virus was isolated in 1933, new subtypes of human type A influenza viruses have occurred: H2N2 (Asian influenza) replaced H1N1 in 1957, Hong Kong (H3N2) virus appeared in 1968, and H1N1 virus reappeared in 1977. Each of these new subtypes first appeared in China, and anecdotal records suggest that previous epidemics also had their origin in China. Serologic and virologic evidence suggests that since 1889 there have been six instances of the introduction of a virus bearing an HA subtype that had been absent from the human population for some time. Three human subtypes of HA have appeared cyclically—H2 viruses in 1889, H3 in 1900, H1 in 1918, H2 again in 1957, H3 again in 1968, and H1 again in 1977. Phylogenetic evidence indicates that a totally new H1N1 virus of avian origin (not a reassortant) could have appeared in humans or swine before the 1918 influenza and replaced the previous human virus strains. Whether the virus was first introduced into humans and then transmitted to pigs, or vice versa, remains unknown. The reappearance of the H1N1 Russian 1977 influenza virus remains a mystery.

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Words like probably...,... could have, ...unknown.... and mystery ..seem to say alot too. I think it is what brings us all here to keep reading and learning. It's like being a DOE in headlights-watching , waiting...or is it a bad cartoon of the ROADRUNNER and H5N1 is trying to catch him? Where is that ACME dynomite?

The mystery now is where in all this- lies the truth?  The world reporting is what it is . Will all this prevent the pandemic? Some say that the 1997 actions taken in Hong Kong did just that-but the $64.00 question is for how long? We have all taken polls here.

Do you think this pandemic is inevitable -or not?

http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/L27547830.htm

Source: Reuters

Feb 27 (Reuters) - The World Health Organisation (WHO) confirmed on Monday Indonesia's 20th human death from avian flu.

Nine of the confirmed Indonesian fatalities have been in 2006, making Indonesia the country with the most bird flu deaths this year. The newly confirmed case brings the total in Indonesia to 27. Of these, only seven have survived.

China said a nine-year-old girl and a woman farmer were its latest human cases. Both remain in critical condition, the WHO said on Monday. The total number of deaths from the H5N1 bird flu virus stands at 93 since it re-emerged in late 2003.

Following is a list of confirmed human cases of H5N1 from the WHO in Geneva. Total cases includes survivors.

Deaths Total cases CAMBODIA 4 4 CHINA 8 14 INDONESIA 20 27 IRAQ 1 1 THAILAND 14 22 TURKEY 4 12 VIETNAM 42 93 ------------------------------------------------- TOTAL 93 173 -------------------------------------------------

Initial testing usually takes a day or two to confirm if someone has H5N1. More detailed testing by government laboratories or those affiliated with the WHO can take a week or more.

The H5N1 virus remains mainly a virus of birds, but experts fear it could change into a form easily transmitted from person to person and sweep the world, killing millions within weeks or months.

So far, most human cases can be traced to direct or indirect contact with infected birds.

end of article..

Well atleast 7 lived ...out of 27. Wonder how many worldwide have survived it so far.

anyone have a number on that?

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20060227/ap_on_he_me/bird_flu;_yl t=Apo3yMdvTvXYog0pm_hFowCs0NUE;_ylu=X3oDMTA3czJjNGZoBHNlYwM3 NTE-    Bird FLu Spreads to Third African Country

PARIS - The deadly H5N1 strain of bird flu was confirmed Monday in birds in a third African country, deepening experts' fears that the disease may be far more widespread than reported on the continent.

Poor veterinary services, a shortage of laboratories, farmers' lack of knowledge and their fear that they will not be compensated if they report sick birds could be masking the extent of H5N1's spread in Africa, according to experts gathered in Paris.

Ilaria Capua, chief of the Italian laboratory that identified H5N1 in domestic ducks in Niger, said she fears the new cases are "just the prelude to the virus becoming endemic in Africa."

"Given the sort of agriculture they have and given the hygienic standards they have in animal farming, I believe that this is just the start," Capua told The Associated Press.

Other experts at the conference agreed that H5N1's spread in Africa is worrisome, as is the likelihood that its confirmed presence in Niger, its southern neighbor Nigeria and in Egypt are but the tip of the problem.

"We have to understand that all of Africa is infected," Nikolai Vlasov, deputy chief of Russia's veterinary service, told the AP. "The spread of the virus is wider than we can see from newspapers."

H5N1 is believed to have spread unchecked in Nigeria before it was identified, and the country's efforts to contain it have been hampered by a lack of resources and information.

In Niger, H5N1 was confirmed in two flocks of domestic ducks, including one in Magaria, close to the Nigerian border, said Maria Zampaglione of the Paris-based World Organization for Animal Health.

Organization director Bernard Vallat said all of Nigeria's neighbors — which aside from Niger include Benin, Cameroon and Chad — "are under a very big threat."

"We know that the virus in Nigeria has invaded a large part of the country. The measures of confinement were not taken and transparency was not applied from the beginning," Vallat told AP Television News.

He said H5N1 is an immediate threat to rural Africans who depend on their poultry for survival. And he said the more the disease spreads, the greater chance of it "transforming itself into a virus more dangerous for mankind."

Scientists fear that H5N1 avian influenza could mutate into a form easily transmitted among humans, sparking a pandemic. Almost all human deaths from bird flu have been linked to contact with infected birds. The U.N. health agency on Monday raised its tally of confirmed human cases by three to 173, of which 93 were fatal.

In birds, the disease has jumped from Asia to Europe and Africa. Experts at the Paris conference, which brought together veterinary officials from Europe and the Middle East, warned of large gaps in their knowledge about how the virus is spreading, particularly the likely role that wild birds are playing.

"There's this big enormous black hole about wild birds that we know absolutely nothing about," said Capua, head of the laboratory in Padua, Italy. She said a major concern is that the disease could spread from African poultry to wild birds, and then be carried to other parts of the globe.

"Can you imagine the virus getting in the wild bird population in Africa? Where's it going to go? What's it going to do? Is it going to be carried back?" she asked.

She said Europe could find itself "under a double machine gun" of potential infection from wild birds migrating southward in winter and northward in spring.

"It's a mess. I mean the only hope we have is that it is not going to be the new pandemic virus," she said.

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<<<<The U.N. health agency on Monday raised its tally of confirmed human cases by three to 173, of which 93 were fatal.  <<<<<So do the math 173-93= 80 have survived. Is that right?

stardust ..I agree with you.

 And we need to watch the slow trickle of information as the whole mystery of this thing unravels..."There's this big enormous black hole about wild birds that we know absolutely nothing about," said Capua, head of the laboratory in Padua, Italy. She said a major concern is that the disease could spread from African poultry to wild birds, and then be carried to other parts of the globe......and this>>> deputy chief of Russia's veterinary service, told the AP. "The spread of the virus is wider than we can see from newspapers."

we are all looking for the information which still remains unknown by scientists around the world..to answer some of the questions we all seek to find when we read up on bird flu.

This thread may move slowly here..but hopefully as more information becomes apparent we will see this thread as something ....to be continued....