Tracking the next pandemic: Avian Flu Talk |
Now 21 cases |
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waterboy
Valued Member Joined: January 21 2008 Status: Offline Points: 8170 |
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Posted: April 07 2013 at 8:27am |
Shanghai cases: [COLOR=#0000ff">H7N9, China: Confirmed and suspected cases (April 7 2013): 3 cases / 0 deaths (cumulative 21 cases/6 fatalities)[/COLOR">. Excerpt:
<BLOCKQUOTE cite=http://www..com/forum/showthread.php?t=203141>Patients Shen, male, 59 years old, Anhui, retirees. Patients March 25, recurrent fever, cough, and themselves to a nearby pharmacy to buy medication did not improve after patients have visited Tang town, Pudong New Area Community Health Center on March 30-April 1, and the Pudong New Area People's Hospital treatment. April 4, patients go to Yan Chai Hospital Pudong Branch of treatment, diagnosis of severe pneumonia, in being active treatment. <BLOCKQUOTE cite=http://www..com/forum/showthread.php?t=203141>On the evening of April 6, Shanghai Municipal Center for Disease Control laboratory test results for the H7N9 avian influenza virus nucleic acid positive. Organization municipal clinical expert group in accordance with the relevant requirements, the Shanghai Municipal Health and Family Planning Commission to discuss the cases, the experts based on the clinical performance of laboratory testing and epidemiological data, the diagnosis of the cases of human infection of H7N9 avian influenza confirmed cases . After investigation, the close contacts of the case has a total of four people, until now, were not unusual. <BLOCKQUOTE cite=http://www..com/forum/showthread.php?t=203141>Patients Lee, male, 67 years old, the people of Shanghai. Patients March 29, body aches, fever, March 30 at the Southern Branch of the First People's Hospital for treatment, diagnosis of upper left pneumonia. In the early morning of April 7, the Shanghai Municipal Center for Disease Control laboratory test results for the H7N9 avian influenza virus nucleic acid positive. Organization municipal clinical expert group in accordance with the relevant requirements, the Shanghai Municipal Health and Family Planning Commission to discuss the cases, the experts based on the clinical performance of laboratory testing and epidemiological data, the diagnosis of the cases of human infection of H7N9 avian influenza confirmed cases. <BLOCKQUOTE cite=http://www..com/forum/showthread.php?t=203141>The patient's condition is stable and under active treatment. After investigation, the close contacts of the case has a total of 2 people, until now, were not unusual. As of this afternoon, the city had a total of 10 confirmed cases of the 194 close contacts carried out under medical observation. All close contacts, accumulated close contacts of fever with cough or sore throat and other symptoms, and 2 people in the treatment of the Shanghai Public Health Clinical Center, H7N9 avian influenza laboratory tests have been excluded. (Xinmin Network reporter Li Xin) And if you scroll down that thread, you'll find another post on a 21st case, that of a 55-year-old poultry seller in Anhui province. |
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Albert
Admin Joined: April 24 2006 Status: Offline Points: 47746 |
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Good find waterboy.
China Reports 3 More Cases of New Bird Flu VirusChina reported three more cases of human infection of a new strain of bird flu on Sunday, raising the total number of cases to 21. Six of those who contracted the H7N9 virus have died. All 21 cases have been reported in the eastern part of the country. Health officials believe people are contracting the virus through direct contact with infected fowl and say there's no evidence the virus is spreading easily between people. China's official Xinhua News Agency reported two new cases in Shanghai and one in east China's Anhui Province on Sunday, citing local authorities. Shanghai has been ordered by the agriculture ministry to halt its live poultry trade and slaughter all fowl in markets where the virus has been found. The capital cities of the neighboring provinces of Zhejiang and Jiangsu also have suspended sales of live poultry. Both provinces have reported H7N9 cases. |
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Albert
Admin Joined: April 24 2006 Status: Offline Points: 47746 |
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This is a little confusing. Are they saying 10 close contacts are showing symptoms? Well, that would be very bad news. False negatives or witholding the truth would be the best guess - and it's potentially transmitting via human contact.
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jacksdad
Executive Admin Joined: September 08 2007 Location: San Diego Status: Offline Points: 47251 |
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It does sound like they're saying H2H, but it could also be a horrible translation. With no new cases in a while I thought we'd dodged a bullet, but it's still going and has now surpassed H5N1's initial outbreak of 18 infected and 5 dead.
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"Buy it cheap. Stack it deep"
"Any community that fails to prepare, with the expectation that the federal government will come to the rescue, will be tragically wrong." Michael Leavitt, HHS Secretary. |
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Guests
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Do NOT believe the news coming out of China they will keep this quiet as long as possible. I have always said that there are too many people and mother nature will find a way to get rid of us. Even if the CDC comes up with a vaccine Mother Nature will come up with something else to kill us off.
I just hope my son and I are not part of the kill off. But if we are I hope my neighbors survive and use my stores. |
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pheasant
Admin Group Joined: May 20 2006 Location: Florida Status: Offline Points: 9851 |
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I was reading Recombinomics commentary, and he says the strains china is releasing do not match the fowl strains released... meaning the human samples are unique.
Also just my observation: if this specific version is brand new, and never seen before in humans, why and how did so many cases show up all at once (within a month or so) all scattered around? In other words if the human strains are unique then H2H must be happening right? Or am I reading this wrong. |
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The only thing we have to fear, is fear itself......FDR
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carbon20
Moderator Joined: April 08 2006 Location: West Australia Status: Offline Points: 65816 |
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hi i still say its got something to do with the 20000 dead pigs found in the river3/4 weeks ago,
else where is its source, something very very odd here |
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Everything we hear is an opinion, not a fact. Everything we see is a perspective, not the truth.🖖
Marcus Aurelius |
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roni3470
Adviser Group Joined: August 30 2006 Location: Colorado Status: Offline Points: 5390 |
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flumom.....I am in colorado too. I have tons of food but only one gun. Perhaps we should discuss on the side for a plan?? not sure how to get each others information but I think we emailed once. email me if interested.
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NOW is the Season to Know
that Everything you Do is Sacred |
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Suzi16
V.I.P. Member Joined: December 01 2012 Status: Offline Points: 55 |
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Pheasant does make a point. A mutation happened in a bird or a pig or a man. A novel virus. How does it get into so many people? If the mutation happened in a person it could have passed back to the animals but if its that easy to spread around they should be finding it in birds and pigs around the other human cases. Some of the flu experts are using unusual language like they are stumped also.
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Tonino
V.I.P. Member Joined: April 03 2013 Location: Vietnam Status: Offline Points: 102 |
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Nice words Flumom; I m 100% with what you said; we are too many and Mother Nature will find a way to regulate the poison we are becoming to the planet.
We were too stupid and enable to manage our demography, so MN will take the job. |
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scimla
advanced Member Joined: August 04 2008 Location: philippines Status: Offline Points: 26 |
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We hope that we do not rely on vaccines alone in preventing the disease. In the Philippines not infected with previous novel viruses like the SARS & Bird Flu we prevent new or prevalent infectious diseases the practical way. We use a disinfectant that is not inactivated by organic mater, dirt & soil, non-toxic & truly non-irritating to spray critical areas of our air & sea ports.
These viruses can be eliminated & without pathogens the disease will be stopped on their tracks. For more information on the disinfectant please visit our YouTube page & just type out scimla.... |
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scimla7seven
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carbon20
Moderator Joined: April 08 2006 Location: West Australia Status: Offline Points: 65816 |
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if it's not h2h how is it spreading?
what do all the victims have in common ? there must be a link somewhere, how are the government back tracking it ? are they backtracking it? or do they know and just not saying ?? |
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Everything we hear is an opinion, not a fact. Everything we see is a perspective, not the truth.🖖
Marcus Aurelius |
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oriel
Adviser Group Joined: April 08 2013 Location: Toronto Status: Offline Points: 250 |
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Several reports that we are up to 24. Not very clear math but reliable reporting source.
http://www.cbc.ca/news/world/story/2013/04/08/bird-flu-china-death-who.html |
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In all things there is the possibility of evolution or revolution
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Albert
Admin Joined: April 24 2006 Status: Offline Points: 47746 |
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Welcome to the forum oriel. Good to have you here. Yes, you are correct. 24 infected and 7 dead.
Best, Albert |
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oriel
Adviser Group Joined: April 08 2013 Location: Toronto Status: Offline Points: 250 |
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Thank you Albert. I have been lurking on the site a very long time not contributing because my perspective is somewhat dry to your community.
I am keeping close tabs on the progression of numbers and correlation to hidden information (from a math perspective not political). I am a math analysis expert (information theory and complex systems) and building some tracking models to determine derivatives of the data for predictive outcome and analysis of the quality of sources. Currently using five models (media only reported, CDC, who, CDC china and hybrid who/media). Not much noise in the data but there is little reporting quality consistency from the various sources. Media sources drop data (pass on less information) From a personal perspective I want the numbers to go away (stay low) but from an analysis perspective I need more data (more cases). Data so far "suggests" that "Chinese official" data source are most referenced sources without prejudice to quality of data. I would love some data on confirmed negative cases, particularly from close contacts to do better analysis. We would all learn a lot from that data. |
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In all things there is the possibility of evolution or revolution
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