Tracking the next pandemic: Avian Flu Talk |
all we need. Any bets on time |
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The WHO meeting is open to public and press. However, the real work never
goes on in public does it. If it doesn't go to level 4 then thats either good or short-sighted. How do we (muskrat) know the 15th March? Are you having a laugh muskrat? Mightymouse always on the ball with the quotes. Today Russia announces out of control in Southern part of country. BF is killing about 10,000 chickens per day!!! This is astonishingly poor control. They are out of control! |
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drpepper
V.I.P. Member Joined: February 08 2006 Status: Offline Points: 71 |
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the WHO meeting was only open to the press for 45 minutes at the beginning of the first day (i believe). i also am anxious to hear what they have to say......but it wont change my finishing of preps. going to address all the "boredom" stuff. everything else is prepped. so off to buy leappad books and board games craft supplies books and comfort foods.....my gut still says 1-2 weeks before we get enough info to warrant quarantine.
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Spoon
Valued Member Joined: January 29 2006 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 607 |
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<heston>a planet where apes evolved from men?</heston> |
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It's not so much the apocalypse... but the credit card bills ;-)
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Please allow me to go get the news story of this from another thread and the fact that i highlighted the closed door and announcment on March 15...brb |
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drpepper, thanks. It sounds like they got some secrets to hide. Need to
know basis as always. Self-important nerds. muskrat, OK if true it is very scary. The soothsayer's warning to Julius Caesar, "Beware the Ides of March," has forever imbued that date with a sense of foreboding. But in Roman times the expression "Ides of March" did not necessarily evoke a dark mood—it was simply the standard way of saying "March 15." Is this world domination announcement time? |
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calendula
Valued Member Joined: February 18 2006 Status: Offline Points: 345 |
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I am not here to reason, I am here to create"
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Run for your life Donald!
That is the frightening thing. Cover up of 'the now'. China and now attempts by big business in France. |
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oops sorry brain fart forgot to attach the URL...here it is:
http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/default.asp?page=2006%5C03%5C07 %5Cstory_7-3-2006_pg4_4 Date March 7 2006 |
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Dejuan
V.I.P. Member Joined: January 26 2006 Status: Offline Points: 84 |
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Los Alamos scientist tracking virus expects it within 2 years By Sue Vorenberg Birds don't have to go through security checks when they cross borders.
They don't have to get tested for drugs or disease before visiting wintering grounds along the Rio Grande. In the next two years, they could bring to New Mexico a deadly natural biological weapon - bird flu - says Jeanne Fair, a scientist at Los Alamos National Laboratory. She has been studying how the disease will travel from Asia and Europe into the United States and New Mexico. The strain that has infected millions of birds worldwide will almost certainly be here in the next two years, possibly by late 2007, Fair said. Whether the H5N1 influenza virus that they carry has mutated into a strain that can create a pandemic outbreak in humans remains to be seen. "I think it will probably be here sooner, but it's one of those guess points of people in ornithology," Fair said. "If you have the summer, you have breeding birds over in Europe. Then they'll probably go north, mix again (with birds in Alaska), and then next fall and next winter, we could start seeing it." For the past year, Fair has been investigating where bird flu might show up in New Mexico along the Rio Grande corridor. She did the same thing for West Nile virus for the five years before that. Los Alamos has about 40 people working on the problem and investigating ways to track bird flu, test for it and genetically isolate particular strains and where they came from, said Babs Marrone, a lab scientist working on the problem. "You have a better chance of predicting (how the disease will spread) if you know what's in the environment naturally," she said. The efforts fall under the lab's national security mission, Marrone said. "I think one thing we can do about it is to continue our planning and getting counter-measures in place with the expectation that there will be a pandemic in the human population - whether it's this year or 20 years from now," Marrone said. The disease, spread through bird feces, saliva and infected water, was first found in Hong Kong in 1997 and spread in birds through Asia. In the past two years, it has migrated through the Middle East and into Europe and Africa but has not reached North America. The flu has infected a small number of people, mostly poultry workers. As of Monday, the World Health Organization listed 175 cases in Asia and the Middle East, with 95 deaths. It's the high death rate associated with the disease in humans that worries health officials. If the disease mutates so it can spread from human to human, rather than just from bird to human, a deadly pandemic could spread across the globe, killing millions, said C. Mack Sewell, the New Mexico state epidemiologist. "If it stays in wildlife, at that point it's not a big issue for human health," Sewell said. "The problem is human-to-human transmission. Internationally, we're only seeing a very small amount of human transmission from birds or exposure to bird products." But wild birds can infect domesticated birds in chicken farms, and those birds are more likely to spread the disease to humans because of increased contact, Fair said. Tens of thousands of waterfowl such as ducks, geese and cranes spend winters in New Mexico along the Rio Grande corridor every year. When they bring bird flu into the state, they could infect other birds and the water that the birds and other creatures live in, Fair said. "You have to test the birds and test the water," Fair said. "If you find it in a lake, influenzas can hang around for a month. Some studies have shown it staying over 200 days." The longer the disease remains in the water, the more likely it is to find other host species, Fair said. In Germany and Thailand, it has jumped to cats, which shows the virus is finding new ways to mutate, Fair said. "We know it infects cats - that's unheard of," Fair said. "Cats do not get influenza." Cats can transmit the disease to other cats, too, which is another warning sign, she said. "Minks are susceptible, and of course, pigs will be important, as well," Fair said. "They're sort of a mixing vessel. They have receptors that are similar to birds but also to humans." When the first infected birds are found in New Mexico, the state would try to isolate the areas they are found in and quarantine domestic birds there, Sewell said. The state will test more regularly across the state after the disease first appears in the United States, Sewell said. Internationally, animal vaccines have been developed for bird flu, but a human vaccine can't be developed until a strain is isolated in humans, Sewell said. Developing a batch of vaccines can also take from six to eight months, which is "long enough for a pandemic strain to produce a first wave worldwide," Sewell said. Still, groups are investigating some sort of primer vaccine that might reduce the death rate while a more reliable vaccine is developed, Sewell said.
Very surprized to see Los Alamos researching Bird Flu not the usual research area for the labs . Looked up the lab on the web they have a whole division dedicated to pathagens. Never heard of them haveing that type of research there before .
Dejuan |
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Ring a ring o'roses
A pocket full of posies A-tishoo! A-tishoo! We all fall down |
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Dejuan
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Ring a ring o'roses
A pocket full of posies A-tishoo! A-tishoo! We all fall down |
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Thomas Angel
V.I.P. Member Joined: February 16 2006 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 622 |
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MARCH, 2006
In like a Lamb, Out like a Lion.
"Beware the Ides of March" |
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I LIKE SCARY RIDES
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mightymouse
Valued Member Joined: January 27 2006 Status: Offline Points: 487 |
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WHO will probably now form a committee to decide who is to be on the committee to study the response issue with a report due on or before April 1st, 2017.
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Nothing matters - Therefore everything matters
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mightymouse you are being to nice to the WHO...
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I want to play the guessing game!!! I 'll bet 3 masks and a pair of gloves it will be here ineight months!!! Happy Thanksgiving....See my new thread.....
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kiwi
Valued Member Joined: February 19 2006 Location: New Zealand Status: Offline Points: 51 |
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question for steve 101 ( or anyone els ) where, how and when do you think or predict the H2H BF will enter in to NZ? |
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steve 101
Adviser Group Joined: February 07 2006 Location: New Zealand Status: Offline Points: 138 |
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I believe that BF is already here. I am seeing that there is a marked reduction in birds in my area which is rural h2h it could change in nz or else i figure we will have it 1 week after it explodes o/seas. each strain appears to be going h2h individually in each country. what gets me is that there appears to be almost a news blackout in nz on what is happening o/s Interesting that a health flyer on BF by pegasus health (large group of doctors) has popped out at our store. It was written in Sept 05. just now released. Put 2 + 2 together. Hope you have prepped well. I am horrified that people i talk to say it wont get here. |
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