A commentary

Message Topic Search Topic Options Post Reply Create New Topic Printable Version Translate Topic

   This is worth the 5 min to read.

Commentary: Why the Wuhan virus situation could get worse soon

The Wuhan virus has been circulating longer than first thought and has a higher reproduction rate, says the Financial Times' Anjana Ahuja.
Hospitals in Wuhan, the epicentre of the virus outbreak, are overwhelmed
Hospitals in Wuhan, the epicentre of the virus outbreak, are overwhelmed. (Photo: AFP/Hector RETAMAL)
By Anjana Ahuja
28 Jan 2020 08:13AM
(Updated: 28 Jan 2020 08:25AM)

Bookmark

LONDON: The world should be more anxious than it was a week ago.

According to research published on Friday (Jan 24), a new SARS-like coronavirus has been present in China since Dec 1, a full month before the alarm was raised.
Advertisement

Almost 3,000 people have been diagnosed with the respiratory illness. As of Monday afternoon, at least 35 cases were outside China.

Eighty-two people have already died.
MORE: Our coverage on the Wuhan virus and its developments

FILE PHOTO: A traveler wearing a mask arrives on a direct flight from China at Seattle-Tacoma Inter
A traveler wearing a mask arrives on a direct flight from China at Seattle-Tacoma International Airport. (Photo: Reuters)

Advertisement

WORRYING DETAILS OF SPREAD

Despite draconian quarantining, the virus, provisionally known as 2019-nCoV, is spreading. Several countries, including the UK, are considering evacuating nationals from the hot zone.

It is now time for the World Health Organisation to call a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC).

The revised timeline on when the virus began circulating comes courtesy of two papers in The Lancet medical journal, which reveal other worrying details. One sets out the clinical data on the first 41 laboratory-confirmed patients.

Patient zero, who fell ill on Dec 1, had no link to the seafood market in Wuhan that is widely assumed to be the source of the outbreak. A further 13 of those 41 cases showed no link either. It is possible that the virus began circulating earlier than December.
READ: Commentary: The Wuhan virus and the problem with the wildlife trade
READ: How testing woes slowed China's Wuhan virus response

Other analyses separately suggest that containment is now a forlorn hope.

The “reproduction number” is thought to lie between two and four — meaning that, on average, each infected person passes the virus to between two and four others.

That is high: Seasonal flu has a reproduction rate of about 1.4.

The incubation period could be about a week, with infected individuals possibly being contagious while showing mild or no symptoms. 

Neil Ferguson, an Imperial College epidemiologist, estimated that 4,000 were infected by Jan 18. Jonathan Read, of Lancaster University, and colleagues provisionally calculate that the tally could exceed 190,000 by Feb 4.

A GRAVE SITUATION FOR THE WORLD

A “grave situation” for China, as President Xi Jinping describes the epidemic, is a grave situation for the world.

A fifth of the global population is now potentially exposed to a highly transmissible, currently incurable and potentially fatal respiratory virus.

Beijing commuters
People wearing protective masks to help stop the spread of a deadly virus which began in Wuhan, wait next to their suitcases at the Beijing railway station. (Photo: NICOLAS ASFOURI/AFP)

Richard Horton, editor-in-chief of The Lancet, believes a PHEIC declaration should be considered.

“The emergency committee [of the WHO] should reconvene as a matter of urgency,” Mr Horton said, adding that he felt there were political sensitivities at play that have not dogged other epidemics, such as Ebola in west Africa.

Recent developments, such as a special committee set up by China’s ruling party, have also heightened rather than allayed his concerns. He says: “Not one [of the people on that committee] has any background in public health. That makes me very worried.”
READ: Confusion as WHO corrects China virus global risk level
READ: Commentary: Wuhan virus sparks questions over local Chinese officials' disclosure of information

CONCERNS OVER QUARANTINE

Mr Horton also fears the mass social unrest that may accompany prolonged quarantine with patchy information.

It is unclear whether the WHO knew in advance of China’s quarantine plans. The language emerging from its meetings has been painfully diplomatic, with its director-general Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus remarking only that he hoped the extreme measures were “both effective and short in their duration”.

Sir Jeremy Farrar, director of the Wellcome Trust, said it was “right and appropriate” for China to control the first response. Antivirals were going into randomised trials on the ground, he said, and vaccines might become available within six months.

He acknowledged, though, that the social consequences of quarantining millions of people remained “uncharted territory”.

All factors considered, it is perverse to see the coronavirus outbreak as anything other than a PHEIC.

Subscribe to our Telegram channel for the latest updates on the Wuhan virus outbreak: https://cna.asia/telegram

Full coverage: https://cna.asia/wuhan-virus
Source: Financial Times/s

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/commentary/wuhan-virus-public-health-emergency-who-crisis-concern-12360074

Author	Message Topic Search Topic Options Post Reply Create New Topic Printable Version Translate Topic
pheasant Members Profile Send Private Message Find Members Posts Add to Buddy List Admin Group Joined: May 20 2006 Location: Florida Status: Offline Points: 9851	Post Options Post Reply Quote pheasant Report Post Thanks(0) Quote Reply Topic: A commentary Posted: January 27 2020 at 4:51pm
	This is worth the 5 min to read. Commentary: Why the Wuhan virus situation could get worse soon The Wuhan virus has been circulating longer than first thought and has a higher reproduction rate, says the Financial Times' Anjana Ahuja. Hospitals in Wuhan, the epicentre of the virus outbreak, are overwhelmed Hospitals in Wuhan, the epicentre of the virus outbreak, are overwhelmed. (Photo: AFP/Hector RETAMAL) By Anjana Ahuja 28 Jan 2020 08:13AM (Updated: 28 Jan 2020 08:25AM) Bookmark LONDON: The world should be more anxious than it was a week ago. According to research published on Friday (Jan 24), a new SARS-like coronavirus has been present in China since Dec 1, a full month before the alarm was raised. Advertisement Almost 3,000 people have been diagnosed with the respiratory illness. As of Monday afternoon, at least 35 cases were outside China. Eighty-two people have already died. MORE: Our coverage on the Wuhan virus and its developments FILE PHOTO: A traveler wearing a mask arrives on a direct flight from China at Seattle-Tacoma Inter A traveler wearing a mask arrives on a direct flight from China at Seattle-Tacoma International Airport. (Photo: Reuters) Advertisement WORRYING DETAILS OF SPREAD Despite draconian quarantining, the virus, provisionally known as 2019-nCoV, is spreading. Several countries, including the UK, are considering evacuating nationals from the hot zone. It is now time for the World Health Organisation to call a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC). The revised timeline on when the virus began circulating comes courtesy of two papers in The Lancet medical journal, which reveal other worrying details. One sets out the clinical data on the first 41 laboratory-confirmed patients. Patient zero, who fell ill on Dec 1, had no link to the seafood market in Wuhan that is widely assumed to be the source of the outbreak. A further 13 of those 41 cases showed no link either. It is possible that the virus began circulating earlier than December. READ: Commentary: The Wuhan virus and the problem with the wildlife trade READ: How testing woes slowed China's Wuhan virus response Other analyses separately suggest that containment is now a forlorn hope. The “reproduction number” is thought to lie between two and four — meaning that, on average, each infected person passes the virus to between two and four others. That is high: Seasonal flu has a reproduction rate of about 1.4. The incubation period could be about a week, with infected individuals possibly being contagious while showing mild or no symptoms. Neil Ferguson, an Imperial College epidemiologist, estimated that 4,000 were infected by Jan 18. Jonathan Read, of Lancaster University, and colleagues provisionally calculate that the tally could exceed 190,000 by Feb 4. A GRAVE SITUATION FOR THE WORLD A “grave situation” for China, as President Xi Jinping describes the epidemic, is a grave situation for the world. A fifth of the global population is now potentially exposed to a highly transmissible, currently incurable and potentially fatal respiratory virus. Beijing commuters People wearing protective masks to help stop the spread of a deadly virus which began in Wuhan, wait next to their suitcases at the Beijing railway station. (Photo: NICOLAS ASFOURI/AFP) Richard Horton, editor-in-chief of The Lancet, believes a PHEIC declaration should be considered. “The emergency committee [of the WHO] should reconvene as a matter of urgency,” Mr Horton said, adding that he felt there were political sensitivities at play that have not dogged other epidemics, such as Ebola in west Africa. Recent developments, such as a special committee set up by China’s ruling party, have also heightened rather than allayed his concerns. He says: “Not one [of the people on that committee] has any background in public health. That makes me very worried.” READ: Confusion as WHO corrects China virus global risk level READ: Commentary: Wuhan virus sparks questions over local Chinese officials' disclosure of information CONCERNS OVER QUARANTINE Mr Horton also fears the mass social unrest that may accompany prolonged quarantine with patchy information. It is unclear whether the WHO knew in advance of China’s quarantine plans. The language emerging from its meetings has been painfully diplomatic, with its director-general Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus remarking only that he hoped the extreme measures were “both effective and short in their duration”. Sir Jeremy Farrar, director of the Wellcome Trust, said it was “right and appropriate” for China to control the first response. Antivirals were going into randomised trials on the ground, he said, and vaccines might become available within six months. He acknowledged, though, that the social consequences of quarantining millions of people remained “uncharted territory”. All factors considered, it is perverse to see the coronavirus outbreak as anything other than a PHEIC. Subscribe to our Telegram channel for the latest updates on the Wuhan virus outbreak: https://cna.asia/telegram Full coverage: https://cna.asia/wuhan-virus Source: Financial Times/s https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/commentary/wuhan-virus-public-health-emergency-who-crisis-concern-12360074
	The only thing we have to fear, is fear itself......FDR