Prevalence of Wuhan virus in Wuhan – 1.5%?

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by monotreme1000 January 31, 2020

210 Japanese citizens living in Wuhan were repatriated to Japan recently. Three of these individuals tested positive for the virus and were hospitalised. Assuming that the 210 Japanese are a representative sample of the people in Wuhan, this suggests 1.5% of all people in Wuhan may be infected. Given that Wuhan has 11,000,000 people, that suggests 165,000 people in Wuhan may be infected. Prospective testing of representative samples of all major Chinese cities would be useful in establishing the prevalence of this disease. It would also be useful to obtain the numbers of individuals in these cities who are dying with pneumonia and to compare that with the number which have died with pneumonia in previous years. In this way, better estimates of case fatality rates could be obtained.

Reference
3 Japanese evacuees from Wuhan test positive for new coronavirus, Kyodo News, Janauary 30, 2020

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Tabitha111 Members Profile Send Private Message Find Members Posts Add to Buddy List Adviser Group Joined: January 11 2020 Location: Virginia Status: Offline Points: 11640	Post Options Post Reply Quote Tabitha111 Report Post Thanks(0) Quote Reply Topic: Prevalence of Wuhan virus in Wuhan – 1.5%? Posted: January 31 2020 at 6:37am
	by monotreme1000 January 31, 2020 210 Japanese citizens living in Wuhan were repatriated to Japan recently. Three of these individuals tested positive for the virus and were hospitalised. Assuming that the 210 Japanese are a representative sample of the people in Wuhan, this suggests 1.5% of all people in Wuhan may be infected. Given that Wuhan has 11,000,000 people, that suggests 165,000 people in Wuhan may be infected. Prospective testing of representative samples of all major Chinese cities would be useful in establishing the prevalence of this disease. It would also be useful to obtain the numbers of individuals in these cities who are dying with pneumonia and to compare that with the number which have died with pneumonia in previous years. In this way, better estimates of case fatality rates could be obtained. Reference 3 Japanese evacuees from Wuhan test positive for new coronavirus, Kyodo News, Janauary 30, 2020

Technophobe Members Profile Send Private Message Find Members Posts Add to Buddy List Assistant Admin Joined: January 16 2014 Location: Scotland Status: Offline Points: 88450	Post Options Post Reply Quote Technophobe Report Post Thanks(0) Quote Reply Posted: January 31 2020 at 6:42am
	That is a very small reference sample (as if I was one to talk) but taking that into account your figures make a scary sum.
	How do you tell if a politician is lying? His lips or pen are moving.