Maybe this is Like the Flu After All-My CFR Theory

Some interesting trends in the data regarding CFR...and a theory (which I'm sure many scientists are trying to figure out0

South Korea, which has done over 160,000 tests, has uncovered 5,766 confirmed infected, and they have seen "only" 35 deaths. If the currently accepted CFR was as expected, we would expect to see 196 deaths with a 3.4% CFR, or 115, with a 2%.

But we don't see that many deaths. Think about that. With 35 deaths in a well-sampled population, implies a CFR of about 0.6% right now. They are certainly counting most, if not all of the deaths. Perhaps they are getting closer to the true number of infected, the denominator in the CFR.

People are assuming that many of the mild cases were missed in China and elsewhere. Maybe that's correct, and is shown by S. Korea's aggressive testing.

Perhaps the 2% or 3.4% overall figures are way off at the moment.

 Scientists haven't had a chance to take samples of its prevalence in the average population, as it's so new, so hard to get a handle on attack rate and prevalence in a population. They are just getting antibody testing (to confirm if previously exposed) off the ground. 

This might make sense of the data we are seeing in Iran, and the US. If it's only a 0.6% CFR, then we would multiply deaths by 167 to get an approximation of 1833 US infections which is about the estimate that some experts have suggested in the US, as well as to arrive at a figure of about 500,000 infected in China, which would make a heck of a lot more sense from the actions of the government. In Iran, with 92 deaths, would imply about 15,000 infected.  

Maybe a LOT more people are/were infected, recovering/ed, and don't/didn't even know it!

Maybe it IS not so bad after all?

Or did South Korea just get AHEAD of the infection to death 3-4 week timeline?

Mortality from a viral pulmonary infection is a complex matter.  One of the big risk factors seems to be pre-existing medical conditions, especially cardiovascular.  

In China, men smoke like thieves, and women don't, so many deaths were in elderly smoking male patients.  This is almost identical to the epidemiological patterns we saw during the first Legionnaire's Disease Outbreak, when elderly male American Legion conference attendees were infected from the hotel's cooling water system.  

The epidemic curve is still early, we are still learning.  It is heartening and interesting that children are being spared; our last pandemic, H1N1 "swine flu" in 2009, was particularly savage on children, causing many deaths.  

I am not convinced that viral pneumonia deaths are all being tested.  A friend called me this morning and told me her husband died of viral pneumonia.  He was under isolation until he left the hospital AMA due to hallucinations.  If they tested him, they did not tell her.

Yes, thanks for that. I think you're right. The differences in fatality better explained by the different strains. 

Just like 1917-1918 waves.