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Spread of avian flu worries public health officials

ROSEMONT -- Federal and state officials gathered Friday were told of a bleak scenario featuring the spread of avian flu shutting down schools and businesses and straining resources.
U.S. Health and Human Services Secretary Mike Leavitt told the gathering it is not a question of if, but when, bird flu will be detected in the country.
"We're overdue, and we're underprepared," he told the Illinois Pandemic Influenza Readiness Summit.
Leavitt is traveling across the country promoting local preparedness for a potential bird flu pandemic. No cases of the disease have been detected in the United States.
Federal officials promised to allocate $2.8 million to Illinois for preparedness planning during a ceremonial signing by Leavitt and Gov. Rod Blagojevich of a planning resolution.
The virus that causes bird flu remains primarily a bird disease but has infected at least 177 people and killed 98 in the last three years. It remains hard for humans to catch and virtually all patients contracting the disease have come into close contact with poultry.
Experts fear, however, that the virus could mutate into a form that passes easily from person to person, potentially resulting in millions of deaths worldwide.
Illinois public health officials said if a severe outbreak of bird flu occurred on the level of the 1918 flu pandemic, an estimated 2 million of the state's 12.5 million residents would be ill. Of those, 30,000 would require hospitalization, and 8,700 would die.
"History teaches us that cost of not being prepared is far too great," he said.
State health officials conducted a crisis simulation exercise Tuesday to test their response to a fictitious bird flu outbreak.
Melaney Arnold, a spokeswoman for the Illinois Department of Public Health, said the simulation revealed some of the grim problems officials would be trying to solve, including an unexpected need for more coroners and tough decisions about the distribution of vaccinations and medical equipment.
"There are only so many ventilators," Arnold said.
James Bentley of the American Hospital Association said there is no absolute way of knowing when or how severe a bird flu pandemic will occur. He said flu pandemics in 1968 and 1957 are all but forgotten.
"It didn't become a big deal," he said. "So, we don't know how severe this is going to be and we don't know how compressed it's going to be: how many people in one point in time in are going to get sick."
The last flu pandemic occurred in 1968, causing 34,000 U.S. deaths and about 700,000 around the world.

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Guests Members Profile Send Private Message Find Members Posts Add to Buddy List Guest Group	Post Options Post Reply Quote Guests Thanks(0) Quote Reply Topic: officials worries Posted: March 21 2006 at 4:07pm
	Spread of avian flu worries public health officials ROSEMONT -- Federal and state officials gathered Friday were told of a bleak scenario featuring the spread of avian flu shutting down schools and businesses and straining resources. U.S. Health and Human Services Secretary Mike Leavitt told the gathering it is not a question of if, but when, bird flu will be detected in the country. "We're overdue, and we're underprepared," he told the Illinois Pandemic Influenza Readiness Summit. Leavitt is traveling across the country promoting local preparedness for a potential bird flu pandemic. No cases of the disease have been detected in the United States. Federal officials promised to allocate $2.8 million to Illinois for preparedness planning during a ceremonial signing by Leavitt and Gov. Rod Blagojevich of a planning resolution. The virus that causes bird flu remains primarily a bird disease but has infected at least 177 people and killed 98 in the last three years. It remains hard for humans to catch and virtually all patients contracting the disease have come into close contact with poultry. Experts fear, however, that the virus could mutate into a form that passes easily from person to person, potentially resulting in millions of deaths worldwide. Illinois public health officials said if a severe outbreak of bird flu occurred on the level of the 1918 flu pandemic, an estimated 2 million of the state's 12.5 million residents would be ill. Of those, 30,000 would require hospitalization, and 8,700 would die. "History teaches us that cost of not being prepared is far too great," he said. State health officials conducted a crisis simulation exercise Tuesday to test their response to a fictitious bird flu outbreak. Melaney Arnold, a spokeswoman for the Illinois Department of Public Health, said the simulation revealed some of the grim problems officials would be trying to solve, including an unexpected need for more coroners and tough decisions about the distribution of vaccinations and medical equipment. "There are only so many ventilators," Arnold said. James Bentley of the American Hospital Association said there is no absolute way of knowing when or how severe a bird flu pandemic will occur. He said flu pandemics in 1968 and 1957 are all but forgotten. "It didn't become a big deal," he said. "So, we don't know how severe this is going to be and we don't know how compressed it's going to be: how many people in one point in time in are going to get sick." The last flu pandemic occurred in 1968, causing 34,000 U.S. deaths and about 700,000 around the world.