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PANDEMIC ALERT LEVEL
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Tracking the next pandemic: Avian Flu Talk

1 infected person = 59k cases
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Newbie1A View Drop Down
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Joined: January 26 2018
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Points: 11180 		Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Newbie1A Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Topic: 1 infected person = 59k cases
    Posted: March 29 2020 at 7:57am

https://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/canada/1-person-infected-with-covid-19-could-lead-to-more-than-59k-cases-says-chief-medical-officer/ar-BB11RH9x?ocid=spartandhp

Not sure how the math was done for this, what R0 used etc but something to think about...
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Points: 60 		Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote g0ldl10n Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 29 2020 at 4:34pm

Not really sure how that adds up when there's already 720k+ confirmed cases, which would then imply ~42.5 billion could be infected, a whopping ~34.5 billion over our current global population. 
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Points: 88450 		Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Technophobe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 29 2020 at 4:46pm

Sounds about right to me.  Simple exponential spread.
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