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PANDEMIC ALERT LEVEL
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Tracking the next pandemic: Avian Flu Talk

3 month lock down
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carbon20 View Drop Down
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    Posted: April 01 2020 at 3:25pm






The Guardian: Australia coronavirus live update: NSW police say lockdown orders will last 90 days as national cases near 5,000 – latest news.

https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/live/2020/apr/02/coronavirus-update-live-news-australia-nsw-victoria-queensland-qld-tas-act-sa-wa-nt-covid19-latest-updates
Everything we hear is an opinion, not a fact. Everything we see is a perspective, not the truth.🖖

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Better to swallow the big pill than to have to swallow a small one every two weeks.  
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Here in Western Australia ,we are on level 3, I'm still at work, so is wife, exclusion zone about 70km around Perth no one in or out....

Very light traffic on roads ,everyone doing the Right thing
Everything we hear is an opinion, not a fact. Everything we see is a perspective, not the truth.🖖

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I'm not sure which would be better, to know it's going to be 90 days to begin with? Or to go 2 weeks, then get extended, 30 days then another 30 days, etc. None of it is easy and it all will turn out the same, but 90 days when you hear it just seems like such a long time.........
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I can tell you, you have to feed Americans a small amount at a time.  This younger generation can't take the truth.  I know I work with the parents of a lot of kids and they are wimps who have to be fed at a slow rate when the news is not good.   U.S. will be in 3 month lock down too just have to feed this information to the "children" slowly.
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Scott Morrison (the Australian Prime Minister) has just announced lockdown to run until October at least!!!!! And possibly longer. Wow!! Wow. That's so far away.

Those who got it wrong, for whatever reason, may feel defensive and retrench into a position that doesn’t accord with the facts.
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Think I will.be laid off next week, $750 a week off Government

Should see us OK till October.....

Then What....hope its all over....

Not going to hold breath....
Everything we hear is an opinion, not a fact. Everything we see is a perspective, not the truth.🖖

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I had a funny conversation with a friend in rural Vermont last night.  I said the same thing about dribs and drabs and how it must be making her crazy that this is the route her Governor is taking.  She said she believes that authorities are afraid that all the NRA card members will break out their AR-15's and start shooting up the place because they'd see it as being controlled.  Something to which New Englanders don't take kindly.  

I think there's good reasons on both sides of the equation.  But mostly I think the reason is, authorities just don't know.  The models keep changing.  Like for NY.  Day before yesterday Cuomo said the models project apex mid-April.  Yesterday they changed to the apex being end of April.  How do you give people a timeline when new information changes the projection models?
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The refrain in America is “Bend the Curve.”  Slow the rate of increase.  The thing that they are not telling us is that if we bend the curve and slow the rate of increase, we stretch out how long it lasts.... by months.  The flattened curve takes a lot longer to get through than the tall one.  It is the right thing to do, but it is hard.  The more people stay home, the less the hospitals get overwhelmed and the less people die.  The flip side is that the more people stay home, the longer people have to stay home.
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Of course you can't blame Governors for meting out two week increments when the Nation's top epidemiologist is getting death threats for his bleak forecasts.  

https://www.huffpost.com/entry/anthony-fauci-security-coronavirus_n_5e85776dc5b6f55ebf47e311?ncid=fcbklnkushpmg00000013&utm_campaign=hp_fb_pages&section=politics&utm_source=politics_fb&utm_medium=facebook&fbclid=IwAR2iuQ9MwDYywnpclDn-sZ7vFRgAqsO53Mwcjabz-Al1uQLaLkxt1nMoLlA

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I wondered about that, Little House.  In one day NY's apex went from mid-April to end of April.  The only real difference in the data is NY's infection rate is softening.  It makes sense.  
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Originally posted by Little House Little House wrote:

The refrain in America is “Bend the Curve.”  Slow the rate of increase.  The thing that they are not telling us is that if we bend the curve and slow the rate of increase, we stretch out how long it lasts.... by months.  The flattened curve takes a lot longer to get through than the tall one.  It is the right thing to do, but it is hard.  The more people stay home, the less the hospitals get overwhelmed and the less people die.  The flip side is that the more people stay home, the longer people have to stay home.



I've been reading a British newspaper every day and so far I've clocked 4 corona virus murders that have happened when people are in lockdown. 2 husbands killing their wives, 2 husbands killing their pets, children, wives and then themselves. They just couldn't take any more. We forget that our modern lives mean we spend most of our time out of our homes, at work, school, sports etc. There's a reason why people drink so much over Christmas and why so many people get divorced straight afterwards. For many people this time of enforced cohabitation with their spouses will be an absolute nightmare.

Those who got it wrong, for whatever reason, may feel defensive and retrench into a position that doesn’t accord with the facts.
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President Trump has said in his daily briefings that the cure (SIP) could be worse than the virus.  People will have many mental problems with staying together so long, money problems, kids driving them crazy, not knowing if they will have a job when this is over.  There will be killings, suicides, drug use, alcohol use, and depression vs lots of deaths from the virus.   Our President and all the leaders around the world are having to make decisions about all of this we need to pray for them this is a lot of weight on all of them.   I believe the U.S. will be in lock down at least until June 1 or maybe longer.  I can tell you people in the U.S. will not take lock down this long well.
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Originally posted by FluMom FluMom wrote:

President Trump has said in his daily briefings that the cure (SIP) could be worse than the virus.  People will have many mental problems with staying together so long, money problems, kids driving them crazy, not knowing if they will have a job when this is over.  There will be killings, suicides, drug use, alcohol use, and depression vs lots of deaths from the virus.   Our President and all the leaders around the world are having to make decisions about all of this we need to pray for them this is a lot of weight on all of them.   I believe the U.S. will be in lock down at least until June 1 or maybe longer.  I can tell you people in the U.S. will not take lock down this long well.


Hopefully it ends first of May FluMom.  I've been on vacation this week , going back to work tomorrow hopefully I can

walk between the rain drops and avoid this virus.
keep the joy
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Originally posted by FluMom FluMom wrote:

  I believe the U.S. will be in lock down at least until June 1 or maybe longer.  I can tell you people in the U.S. will not take lock down this long well.

Have you seen how people in Italy - a very laid back country with no access to guns - have been plotting on social media to rob supermarkets en masse? Apparently, some of them have reached the end of their tethers and are bored and hungry and so social unrest is starting to show. What ever will it be like in a few more weeks? Or in a country with ready access to guns?
Those who got it wrong, for whatever reason, may feel defensive and retrench into a position that doesn’t accord with the facts.
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We have only been SIP for 2 weeks and I have already heard of 2 muggings for food in parking lots. Then the other night someone broke into a store and stole 5 AR-15's
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Yes, it is time to lock and load...when the bad guys have guns the only one to stop them are the good guys with guns.  Sorry but that is the way in the U.S. our country has always had guns and we will continue to have guns.   I have my guns ready to go in my house because they are letting out a lot of criminals all over Colorado.  Police will be ill and not available quickly to help defend people.   I have a concealed carry and now when I go out I will be packing.  Things are going to get bad.  I have my gates locked all my sheds locked and lights all around my yards and house. My house is locked down but my guns are always very near.   KiwiMum it is not people like me that have guns that anyone will have to worry about it is the people who want what I and other have that we will have to worry about.  
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Originally posted by FluMom FluMom wrote:

  KiwiMum it is not people like me that have guns that anyone will have to worry about it is the people who want what I and other have that we will have to worry about.  

I agree with you. It's a worrying prospect. I hope you'll be ok. Who knows what desperate people will do. I think no one will be surprised when hungry people go on the rampage, but what I don't think anyone is expecting, is when someone with a gun goes out and tries to get medical help for a sick relative. This is the very real danger that an overwhelmed medical system will generate. It's when the desperate relatives are waving guns in the faces of the doctors, or worse still, shooting them when their loved one has died from lack of medical care. As it stood before the coronavirus there were too many disenfranchised people in our societies, but with disease adding to the misery, causing job losses and huge financial stresses on just about every one, it will only get worse.

Those who got it wrong, for whatever reason, may feel defensive and retrench into a position that doesn’t accord with the facts.
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I think if Americans keep their heads we'll be okay.  Stats here in NYC are that crime and shootings have dropped sharply over the last two weeks.  Shootings down 23% this week alone.  Car thefts are up in a big way though...

https://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/local/crime-and-courts/crime-plunges-in-new-york-city-as-virus-lockdown-takes-hold/2343578/

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Then there’s this...

President Trump emphasized the need to "get back to work" at a Coronavirus Task Force meeting as the number of confirmed cases of coronavirus in the country topped 300,000. 


Mr. Trump said he spoke to the heads of professional sports leagues, and while he said "I can't give you a date" about when various leagues would start up again, he said he "absolutely" wanted fans back in the arenas. "Sports weren't built for this," he said. 



https://www.cbsnews.com/live-updates/coronavirus-pandemic-covid-19-latest-news-2020-04-04/?intcid=CNI-00-10aaa3a
"Buy it cheap. Stack it deep"
"Any community that fails to prepare, with the expectation that the federal government will come to the rescue, will be tragically wrong." Michael Leavitt, HHS Secretary.
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President Trump is an idiot.  There, I said it. 
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