Tracking the next pandemic: Avian Flu Talk |
Diamond Princess CFR now at 1.54% |
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EdwinSm,
Moderator Joined: April 03 2013 Status: Offline Points: 24065 |
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Posted: April 03 2020 at 1:50am |
In the latest "Situation Report" the WHO have announced 4 more deaths from the Diamond Princess. This is almost a month since the last death had been reported on 8th March. The confirmed cases are still at 712 (about 20% of passengers and crew), and the deaths are now at 11, which gives a CFR of 1.54%. Together these give a death/population rate of 0.3% The CFR is higher then the recent estimates of 0.66%, but then on a cruise ship most of the passengers would be elderly aad so one would expect a rate higher than the general public, so I find this rate reasonable What I cannot fully understand is why on the ship the Infection rate was only 20% - Did the lock down in cabins work? or were there many undetected cases, which would indicate a much smaller CFR? [As a ball part figure, the 0.3% rate in the States would equal about 1 million deaths.] |
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EdwinSm,
Moderator Joined: April 03 2013 Status: Offline Points: 24065 |
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Recently WHO have released information that there have been a further two deaths from the Diamond Princess. So the deaths stand at 13, out of 712 people infected. This gives a CFR of 1.83% - still not very high given the high proportion of older people (but still much higher than the flu). What I find significant is the long time it is taking some of the poor souls to die. The first two deaths were reported by WHO in their report for 20th February - we are now about 2 months later. |
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FluMom
Adviser Group Valued Member Since 2006 Joined: February 03 2020 Location: Colorado Status: Offline Points: 14695 |
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A friend has a nurse friend in NYC. The nurse said if people could see how many of the patients in hospitals suffer And how long they suffer with this virus people would Gladly stay home. I guess many really suffer with no oxygen and it takes a long time to get well. |
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CRS, DrPH
Expert Level Adviser Joined: January 20 2014 Location: Arizona Status: Offline Points: 26660 |
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Thanks, FluMom! My wife and I will stay comfortably locked in until we see more progress with an anti-viral drug, at least. In the beginning, I didn't think this virus would be THIS bad....I was sure wrong!! What is amazing is that many who have this (Prince Charles) seem to recover with no ill effects or symptoms whatsoever!! Others, including healthy young people, succumb quickly. I wish we knew more about the illness. Be safe! |
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CRS, DrPH
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FluMom
Adviser Group Valued Member Since 2006 Joined: February 03 2020 Location: Colorado Status: Offline Points: 14695 |
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Yes I am staying home too. I understand people want to open up but I think this virus will fool people and come back with a vengeanc. My son is still working in an essential job and I have him on vitamin D and B6 to fight a cytokine storm in case he gets it. I am not planning on going back to work until they have a.good therapy/anti viral for Covid19. I do not believe they will get a vaccine. Do you know how long until a dependable anti body test will be really out there To a majority of the populatio? That will really help to get people back to work. |
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