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PANDEMIC ALERT LEVEL
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Now tracking the new emerging South Africa Omicron Variant

R0 value of 5.7

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socalmom View Drop Down
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    Posted: April 07 2020 at 5:41pm

 I've been away from the forum for a little bit so forgive me if someone else already posted this. Have you seen this? Does it mean that it is far more contagious than originally thought? 


Assuming a serial interval of 6–9 days, we calculated a median R0 value of 5.7

https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/7/20-0282_article?deliveryName=USCDC_333-DM25287

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Thorne! View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Thorne! Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 07 2020 at 6:42pm

Good find. That is in line with the Los Alamos study that gave an R0 range of 4.6-6.7

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WitchMisspelled View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote WitchMisspelled Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 08 2020 at 6:05am

Yes.  From what I've read regular flu has RO of between 1.4 and 1.6.  So the CFR may be comparable to the flu once all the numbers are in, the infection rate is making for much larger number of deaths than seasonal influenza.

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