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Ultimate mortality number?

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AI View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote AI Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 20 2020 at 4:58pm

Originally posted by carbon20 carbon20 wrote:


And how do you know I don't know anything about American politics,


Really, again reading comprehension. You could even do it on line. 

Your limitations are rather obvious when it comes to US history and politics. All you have to do is open your mouth and rhetoric falls out and it's not even the smart kind.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Technophobe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 20 2020 at 5:18pm

Now now, Carbon.  Don't be so trollish!

Yes, the majority of the world thinks the GOO hilarious, but you still have to be polite to the rest of America, especially those smart enough to be here on AFT.

Smack wrist!

How do you tell if a politician is lying?
His lips or pen are moving.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote AI Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 20 2020 at 5:28pm

Originally posted by Technophobe Technophobe wrote:

Now now, Carbon.  Don't be so trollish!

Yes, the majority of the world thinks the GOO hilarious, but you still have to be polite to the rest of America, especially those smart enough to be here on AFT.

Smack wrist!

Ah doesn't bother me, I've seen better, much much better. He's like a one trick pony.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote WitchMisspelled Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 20 2020 at 6:42pm

Originally posted by AI AI wrote:

Originally posted by WitchMisspelled WitchMisspelled wrote:

Originally posted by AI AI wrote:

What can I say, I'd take the word of someone of who has actually done the job as a senior director at that level and who was actually there and has firsthand knowledge, over someone who took a 2 day course offered by the FBI and was never there or at that level. 


AI, I say this with no malice or wish to denigrate your opinion.  However, reading CRS's posts has allowed me to put a few things together.  If CRS's credentials go as "high" as I suspect, he's one of the dudes that helps writes the policy that directors follow.  That's not to say CRS should confirm or deny this.  I'm just sayin'...

You maybe right WM, however I highly suspect if that was the case he would have let everyone know, as he does shall I say have a certain penchant in that regard.

I could be completely wrong.  But, CRS has made mention of some things that add up to a direction other than just some training manager who teaches policy.   In some cases, connections should be kept quiet.  Not everyone brags about their accomplishments. Bragging reveals things that are just safer hidden under a bushel.  
  

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote kaye kaye Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 20 2020 at 7:09pm

Originally posted by WitchMisspelled WitchMisspelled wrote:

Originally posted by AI AI wrote:

Originally posted by WitchMisspelled WitchMisspelled wrote:

Originally posted by AI AI wrote:

What can I say, I'd take the word of someone of who has actually done the job as a senior director at that level and who was actually there and has firsthand knowledge, over someone who took a 2 day course offered by the FBI and was never there or at that level. 


AI, I say this with no malice or wish to denigrate your opinion.  However, reading CRS's posts has allowed me to put a few things together.  If CRS's credentials go as "high" as I suspect, he's one of the dudes that helps writes the policy that directors follow.  That's not to say CRS should confirm or deny this.  I'm just sayin'...

You maybe right WM, however I highly suspect if that was the case he would have let everyone know, as he does shall I say have a certain penchant in that regard.

I could be completely wrong.  But, CRS has made mention of some things that add up to a direction other than just some training manager who teaches policy.   In some cases, connections should be kept quiet.  Not everyone brags about their accomplishments. Bragging reveals things that are just safer hidden under a bushel.  
  

I call bullshit

keep the joy
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote Taxman100 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 20 2020 at 7:15pm

There seems to be some common sense recommendations for re-opening if people will follow the instructions and not put others at risk just to make a political points. It's nonsense how grow up adults are acting over wearing masks, what a bunch of cry babies.  

We still don't know what the long term problems this illness could cause let along how long the immunity will last.  We have the best universities and smartest people in the world in the US  and we have a political party that goes on gut feel when it comes to science.  

Fauci is right, let the CDC make the recommendations and open when we have the testing and tracing in place. There is no need for 50% oi the population to get this illness just so people can get a hair cut or go to the movies.  Glad I live in a state that has their act together WA.   

Together we succeed
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote AI Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 20 2020 at 8:07pm

Originally posted by Taxman100 Taxman100 wrote:

There seems to be some common sense recommendations for re-opening if people will follow the instructions and not put others at risk just to make a political points. It's nonsense how grow up adults are acting over wearing masks, what a bunch of cry babies.  

We still don't know what the long term problems this illness could cause let along how long the immunity will last.  We have the best universities and smartest people in the world in the US  and we have a political party that goes on gut feel when it comes to science.  

Fauci is right, let the CDC make the recommendations and open when we have the testing and tracing in place. There is no need for 50% oi the population to get this illness just so people can get a hair cut or go to the movies.  Glad I live in a state that has their act together WA.   

I live in WA too only westside. I wouldn't pat Inslee on the back too hard, he was aware of community transmission of the virus as a result of the Seattle Flu Project about a month before he issued the stay at home order, from a case that was identified by them that had no foreign travel or connection to the first case identified in Jan. At the very least he could have shut the schools down in Snohomish and King counties, counties with the highest numbers now, a month before he issued the stay at home order.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (2) Thanks(2)   Quote KiwiMum Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 20 2020 at 9:42pm

Originally posted by Taxman100 Taxman100 wrote:

We still don't know what the long term problems this illness could cause let along how long the immunity will last. 

You're absolutely right there. There are increasingly frequent reports of people who've only had a mild case of Covid being left with heart damage and lung scarring. It's far too early to write this disease off as a mild inconvenience.

Those who got it wrong, for whatever reason, may feel defensive and retrench into a position that doesn’t accord with the facts.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote CRS, DrPH Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 20 2020 at 11:55pm

Originally posted by kaye kaye kaye kaye wrote:

Originally posted by WitchMisspelled WitchMisspelled wrote:

Originally posted by AI AI wrote:

Originally posted by WitchMisspelled WitchMisspelled wrote:

Originally posted by AI AI wrote:

What can I say, I'd take the word of someone of who has actually done the job as a senior director at that level and who was actually there and has firsthand knowledge, over someone who took a 2 day course offered by the FBI and was never there or at that level. 


AI, I say this with no malice or wish to denigrate your opinion.  However, reading CRS's posts has allowed me to put a few things together.  If CRS's credentials go as "high" as I suspect, he's one of the dudes that helps writes the policy that directors follow.  That's not to say CRS should confirm or deny this.  I'm just sayin'...

You maybe right WM, however I highly suspect if that was the case he would have let everyone know, as he does shall I say have a certain penchant in that regard.

I could be completely wrong.  But, CRS has made mention of some things that add up to a direction other than just some training manager who teaches policy.   In some cases, connections should be kept quiet.  Not everyone brags about their accomplishments. Bragging reveals things that are just safer hidden under a bushel.  
  

I call bullshit

I'll see your bullshit and raise you.   I've been informed about some scary bullshit, pathogens MUCH worse than this 

stupid little corona virus.  You have no idea how soft & vulnerable the West is to our adversaries, and Trump sucks up to all of them.


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (2) Thanks(2)   Quote WitchMisspelled Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 21 2020 at 5:08am

Originally posted by kaye kaye kaye kaye wrote:

I call bullshit

Of course you do because you've never been involved with any of the intelligence agencies.  I have had, to a limited degree, involvement both professionally and socially.  Clearly CRS has ties closer than any of us.  

Apples and oranges.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote CRS, DrPH Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 22 2020 at 12:19am

Originally posted by WitchMisspelled WitchMisspelled wrote:

Originally posted by kaye kaye kaye kaye wrote:

I call bullshit

Of course you do because you've never been involved with any of the intelligence agencies.  I have had, to a limited degree, involvement both professionally and socially.  Clearly CRS has ties closer than any of us.  

Apples and oranges.

Thanks, WM!  These are friends of mine (FBI SWAT team).  No BS.  These folks are a-mazing! 

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (4) Thanks(4)   Quote jacksdad Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 22 2020 at 12:23am

I’ve known Chuck through AFT for a long time, and we PM each other regularly. You’re going to have to work awful hard to make me believe he’s anything but the genuine article. His insights and experience have been invaluable to us in the past.



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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote Technophobe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 22 2020 at 2:50am

Hey, JD, your yes-man is back,    DITTO.

How do you tell if a politician is lying?
His lips or pen are moving.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote carbon20 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 23 2020 at 4:29pm





Yep Doc's always there with sound advise,

 Up to the listener, 

If they Want to hear 

what's been said!!!!!!....


Everything we hear is an opinion, not a fact. Everything we see is a perspective, not the truth.πŸ––

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote CRS, DrPH Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 09 2021 at 8:07pm

https://www.huffpost.com/entry/fauci-undercounted-covid-deaths_n_6097f441e4b05bee44cb6c43

Originally posted by CRS, DrPH CRS, DrPH wrote:

First of all, thanks to all my fellow AFT/PT members for being on the early side of this pandemic, starting with the earliest reports of an outbreak of pneumonia in Wuhan, China!    On Jan 8, 2020, I posted onto AFT: 

Starting to look like a corona-virus, just like SARS and MERS. I thought that was the most likely candidate.


I then took pen to paper and calculated US casualties of 2 million as follows:


US population is presently about 331 million souls. if about 1/3 of us are at highest risk

for serious illness, the denominator is 100 million. CFR may be 2%, so 2 million might

die from this one in the US.


This number was since confirmed by the Brits, almost to the decimal point.  Of course, this assumed no herd immunity, no isolation etc. 



.....Now, the US Government is vacillating in their numbers, which have ranged from very low (20,000) to up to 100,000.  Early on AFT, I said that total casualties would be 250,000. 


Today, I am writing to announce that, upon analysis, we are more likely to see casualties in the range of 1 million or more.  Our self-quarantine and social distancing bought us some time to prevent drastic overload of hospital ICU beds, but now that the doors are being flung wide open in states such as Wisconsin, Georgia and others, I predict a massive wave of infections that will dwarf the first one.  We basically just kicked the can down the road a bit. 


(Thoughts?  Be safe, Chuck)

One year later, it is looking like my prediction of 1 million US deaths from COVID-19 is probably correct:

https://www.huffpost.com/entry/fauci-undercounted-covid-deaths_n_6097f441e4b05bee44cb6c43

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has placed the number of deaths in the U.S. at around 577,800. In comparison, a study from the University of Washington released Thursday tallied around 905,000 deaths.


“That’s a bit more than I would have thought the undercounting was,” Fauci said of that difference. “I think there’s no doubt ... that we are and have been undercounting. What that tells us is something that we’ve known. You know, we’re living through a historic pandemic, the likes of which we haven’t seen in over a hundred years.”

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (2) Thanks(2)   Quote ME163 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 09 2021 at 9:00pm

I think the undercount is far greater than 905,000.  When I was in the hospital, i saw more death than I care to talk about.  Then, the nursing home where I was, had like 64 deaths but reported only  49 Covid deaths.  Do the math, I saw so many people die, it was so heartbreaking.   Parents were dying away from kids and it  was the saddest thing to see.  I estimate death to be 1.5 million at the low end and 2 million  at the high end.  I lost two classmates and six more were so sick that they were in the ICU.  

We need to realize that the virus is not over.  WE will need constant booster shots.... 


ME163 

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote CRS, DrPH Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 10 2021 at 12:13am

Originally posted by ME163 ME163 wrote:

I think the undercount is far greater than 905,000.  When I was in the hospital, i saw more death than I care to talk about.  Then, the nursing home where I was, had like 64 deaths but reported only  49 Covid deaths.  Do the math, I saw so many people die, it was so heartbreaking.   Parents were dying away from kids and it  was the saddest thing to see.  I estimate death to be 1.5 million at the low end and 2 million  at the high end.  I lost two classmates and six more were so sick that they were in the ICU.  

We need to realize that the virus is not over.  WE will need constant booster shots.... 


ME163 

Thanks, that was the response I was hoping to see!  

a)  There were many deaths resulting from COVID-19 that were not due solely to the virus - it caused excess mortality from everything from suicide to drug overdose etc.  "Official" counts are probably low by a factor of 2.

b)  It ain't over yet!  I predicted one million based on some complicated epidemiological math, including a guesstimate of vaccination penetration that is turning out to be sadly optimistic.  The virus continues to spread in many parts of the USA. 

c)  I also hadn't factored in the rise of variants, since my original post lacked any data to work from.  This RNA virus continues to evolve, mutate and kill.

SUMMARY:  COVID-19 will now be ingrained into US and global populations and continue to kill indefinitely.  

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Usk Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: June 05 2021 at 7:45pm

So just as some of were saying all along this really was a powderpuff From WHo For comparison, the case fatality rate with seasonal flu in the United States is less than 0.1% (1 death per every 1,000 cases). Mortality rate for SARS was 10%, and for MERS 34%. VirusDeath Rate Wuhan Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) 2%* SARS 9.6% MERS 34% Swine Flu 0.02%

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Technophobe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: June 06 2021 at 1:53am

I think the CFR for SARS2 is even lower than that, Usk.  But CFR is only half the picture; infectivity is the other half - and with SARS2 that is both huge and still rising.

Although it is still unproven, I am coming around to the idea that it is a lab release, because the only reason the death toll is in the millions (instead of the tens of millions or more it could have been) is the hercluean efforts governments have made to supress it.  Because it has such a low CFR  the temptation among the short-sighted is to dismiss it.  But it has such a huge debilitation rate (with attendant medical rescource drain) and such a large R0, that if feet are removed from the breaks, it will turn nasty again "double quick pronto!".

All of that is said without taking into consideration its mutation rate.  We simply do not know what it will do tomorrow.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote ViQueen24 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: June 06 2021 at 7:09am

The people who are disabled and are not going to be able to participate in life as they used to know it are legion.  I know several myself.  Some won't be able to work.  As people who are unable to work affect the US productivity and tax indexes, I believe many "powder-puffers" will be revising.

https://calloutsandshoutoutsblog.blogspot.com/2021/05/fool-if-you-think-its-over.html

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: June 06 2021 at 8:24am

When you look at [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ and click on the "deaths per million" you can get a list...1% of a million is 10,000. So Peru has lost 0,5% of its population so far during/from this pandemic. Hungary did see 0,3%+ of its population die...Twelve other countries did already see 0,2% of the population die. In total almost 50 countries did see 1/000-0,1% die from this pandemic...and that is a lot !

Long Covid is no joke-must run in the tens of millions by now..and this pandemic is not over yet...(by far). 


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote carbon20 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: June 06 2021 at 4:21pm

I don't believe you can compare SARS 1,or MERS,with Covid19,

Both sort of faded away.......

I'm stuck in the middle on whether C19 was lab created,

The rate it mutates is amazing,but the flu virus is the same,

But how do you prove that,and what would be the point ?

After all was there a witch hunt after the last swine flu mini pandemic or the MERS,/SARS1 outbreaks....no..... why not ?

Thats like blaming a co-worker for you getting "their" cold...!!!!! So childish......




All governments will have a covert bio technology going on, never mind the legitimate overt ones....

Accidents happen....!!!!!

Take care all πŸ˜·πŸ˜‰....



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