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Tracking the next pandemic: Avian Flu Talk

Fears of second wave as infection rates in America

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bradlux View Drop Down
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    Posted: June 17 2020 at 5:03am

It comes after some states in America continue plans to ease the lockdown.

Reports reveal Arizona, Florida, Oklahoma, Oregon and Texas recorded sharp increases in new cases following all-time highs in the same states last week.

https://worldabcnews.com/coronavirus-latest-fears-of-second-wave-as-infection-rates-in-america-rise-world-news/

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carbon20 View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (3) Thanks(3)   Quote carbon20 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: June 17 2020 at 2:30pm





I don't understand why it's called a 2nd wave,

To me it's the same wave,

A second wave to me, means,

 a place has had no cases for  a good few weeks......

then someone presents with a case ,(from left field)

Causing an outbreak,

What we have now is a rolling first wave.....

In my opinion.....

Everything we hear is an opinion, not a fact. Everything we see is a perspective, not the truth.🖖

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carbon20 View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote carbon20 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: June 17 2020 at 4:08pm
Everything we hear is an opinion, not a fact. Everything we see is a perspective, not the truth.🖖

Marcus Aurelius
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WitchMisspelled View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote WitchMisspelled Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: June 18 2020 at 4:10am

How can it be a second wave when we haven't even gotten off the plateau yet?

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EdwinSm, View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote EdwinSm, Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: June 18 2020 at 8:29am

My personal take on the use of "second wave" is that it is part of a campaign to play down the effects of corvid19.   People heard earlier on talk about a "second wave" so if the press could call any surge what we might see "THE second wave" people can feel happy that this is soon to be over and life can get back to where it was. 


The difficult question is whether it is better to lull people into a false sense of security now, or to tell them the truth and face the possiblitiy of a panic situation or a situation of despair that causes order to break down.

A sense of security now will help to keep people calm and less likely to riot etc, but it prevents them from preparing for what we here think will be the "second wave".  However, it seems that only a few people would seriously work on positioning themselves for a second wave (or even the economic hardships this first wave is causing).  

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Tabitha111 View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Tabitha111 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: June 18 2020 at 12:01pm

I see many folks on medtwitter explaining over and over again that this is STILL the first wave and the 2nd wave is yet to come....more than likely in the Fall.

I guess they are not getting through to folks out there.

'A man who does not think and plan long ahead will find trouble right at his door.'
--Confucius

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote BeachMama Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: June 18 2020 at 6:39pm

Originally posted by WitchMisspelled WitchMisspelled wrote:

How can it be a second wave when we haven't even gotten off the plateau yet?

Agreed — as far as I can tell, the nation as a whole never successfully recovered from the first wave. 

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EdwinSm, View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote EdwinSm, Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: June 19 2020 at 10:52pm

The BBC has an analysis article on Is the pandemic getting worse in the US?  

The number of cases is rising again, although number of deaths is falling.  There are charts showing regional differences with cases falling in Northeast and Midwest, but rising in the South and the West.

One interesting section touching on a topic that we have discussed is:-

Originally posted by "BBC" "BBC" wrote:

The number of new cases rarely fell below 20,000 though, because as some states were bringing their outbreaks under control, others were only just beginning to see flare-ups. 

For this reason, the top US health official for infectious diseases, Anthony Fauci, sees the current situation as a continuation of the initial outbreaks. 

"People keep talking about a second wave," he told a reporter last week. "We're still in a first wave."

Spikes in cases in those new hotspots mean the country's overall seven-day average has now risen for several days in a row for the first time since cases peaked in early April. 

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote EdwinSm, Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: June 24 2020 at 2:18am

Originally posted by "BBC Live News" "BBC Live News" wrote:

In some parts of the US, the outbreak seems to be under control

In the north-eastern states of New York, New Jersey, Massachusetts, and Connecticut, for example, the daily number of new cases is way down from the peak in March and April.

But according to the latest New York Times data, at least 26 states are seeing increases in the seven-day rolling average of new cases. They are:

  • California, Texas, Florida, Georgia, Arizona, North Carolina, Louisiana, Ohio, Tennessee, Alabama, South Carolina, Washington, Mississippi, Missouri, Utah, Arkansas, Nevada, Kansas, Oklahoma, Delaware, Oregon, Idaho, West Virginia, Wyoming, Hawaii, Montana

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WitchMisspelled View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote WitchMisspelled Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: June 24 2020 at 5:12am

It's all about the mask.  Even the numbers between NY and NJ show that.  

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carbon20 View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote carbon20 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: June 24 2020 at 5:25am

It's all about not being  dickheads and listening to the scientists not the politicians....

Who are only looking to get a second term.......

Wonders who that could be ?.....

M.A.M.S.

make american more sick........


Everything we hear is an opinion, not a fact. Everything we see is a perspective, not the truth.🖖

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote EdwinSm, Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: June 25 2020 at 12:13am

Up, up she goes (at least the death rate is staying flat for now)

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote carbon20 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: June 25 2020 at 1:42am






Maybe deaths are lower because the demographic of infected has changed

Younger age groups ,be interesting to watch what happens next......

Everything we hear is an opinion, not a fact. Everything we see is a perspective, not the truth.🖖

Marcus Aurelius
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carbon20 View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote carbon20 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: June 25 2020 at 3:03am

Just watching American news, 

ICU's filling up..... 

That's what we have to watch......

Everything we hear is an opinion, not a fact. Everything we see is a perspective, not the truth.🖖

Marcus Aurelius
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote WitchMisspelled Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: June 25 2020 at 4:16am

I understand that rates of death are a lagging indicator.  Give it three or four weeks and I'm sure those numbers will rise as dramatically as the infection rate is now.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote EdwinSm, Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: June 25 2020 at 4:41am

Not a second wave....but in the graph it looks like a second crest on the first huge wave of infections.


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carbon20 View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote carbon20 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: June 25 2020 at 4:44am

The Independent: Coronavirus: Texas public health expert warns that ‘horrifying’ coronavirus surge should put state on ‘red alert’.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/coronavirus-texas-record-cases-warning-red-alert-a9584811.html

Everything we hear is an opinion, not a fact. Everything we see is a perspective, not the truth.🖖

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote EdwinSm, Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: June 28 2020 at 2:54am

Does the virus like hot conditions?  So much for the hope that it would go away in hot weather - I thought that was wishful thinking but hoped it might be true.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote CRS, DrPH Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: June 28 2020 at 12:19pm

Originally posted by WitchMisspelled WitchMisspelled wrote:

I understand that rates of death are a lagging indicator.  Give it three or four weeks and I'm sure those numbers will rise as dramatically as the infection rate is now.

Absolutely correct, WM!!  Good job, you should be an epidemiologist. 

Regarding "second wave" etc. - these are very artificial terms used to try to fit complex disease dynamics into simpler concepts.  We are, in fact, in a long first-wave like a tsunami - when we went into lockdown in the USA, vulnerable people were taken out of circulation, but only temporarily.  

Now that it is warm, folks have had enough of being cooped up and they are succumbing to their tendencies to go out and party, hang out in parks, beaches etc.  This is Arizona:

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-usa/crowds-pack-arizona-river-as-u-s-posts-record-covid-cases-for-three-days-running-idUSKBN23Z0IW

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote carbon20 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: June 28 2020 at 3:28pm






The worst part of a hurricane is after you come out of the 

EYE ,

America has been in the eye of the storm

Just coming out........ 

Where CHUMP ??? 

haven't seen him for days...... 

hardly Churchillian.....

More like Ronald McDonalds CLOWN......



Everything we hear is an opinion, not a fact. Everything we see is a perspective, not the truth.🖖

Marcus Aurelius
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