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PANDEMIC ALERT LEVEL
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Tracking the next pandemic: Avian Flu Talk

U.S. New Cases estimated 50,000 today.
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WitchMisspelled View Drop Down
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    Posted: July 01 2020 at 6:31pm

Well... It will be 100,000 before we get this thing under some kind of control even with pausing or ratcheting back openings.  45 States have rising numbers.  

https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2020/07/us-daily-covid-19-cases-near-50000-19-states-pause-reopening 
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EdwinSm, View Drop Down
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I know people say that 80% of the cases are "mild" (ie not needing a hospital stay), but for how long can the hospitals admit 10,000 people a day (or 20,000 if the daily cases rise to 100,000)?
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WitchMisspelled View Drop Down
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Points: 17170 		Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote WitchMisspelled Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 02 2020 at 5:21am

I just watched a report on the news about Houston. The ER director sounded in a panic.  He said there were more 20-somethings being admitted than any other age group.  

Frankly, the cases will rise to 100,000.  I don't see any way around it.  Probably by the end of this month.  There were 50,000 new infections yesterday.  The day before that there were 45,000.  We're rising at 5,000 new infections a day and that will increase exponentially over the next couple of weeks.  
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Points: 1910 		Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Little House Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 02 2020 at 10:34am

Originally posted by WitchMisspelled WitchMisspelled wrote:

I just watched a report on the news about Houston. The ER director sounded in a panic.  He said there were more 20-somethings being admitted than any other age group.  

Frankly, the cases will rise to 100,000.  I don't see any way around it.  Probably by the end of this month.  There were 50,000 new infections yesterday.  The day before that there were 45,000.  We're rising at 5,000 new infections a day and that will increase exponentially over the next couple of weeks.  

Remember that there are ups and down in the data.  Real data is messy.  So while I have no doubt that the number of US daily cases is heading straight up, I expect today’s number to be a little down from yesterday.  (If not today, then tomorrow.) It doesn’t mean that the trend is not up, it is just that data is never as neat and tidy as we would like.  A lot of the charts you see are actually using averages to make things look neater.  Here is my chart for US daily cases:


As you can see, even a little dip would still indicate an overall rise.
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EdwinSm, View Drop Down
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On the ups and downs, traditionally deaths have been under reported on weekends leading to spikes on Mondays and even Tuesdays.  That is why a 7 day average seems to be a good indicator smoothing out the daily variation to give a general underlying trend.
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WitchMisspelled View Drop Down
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Points: 17170 		Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote WitchMisspelled Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 02 2020 at 1:00pm

I'll accept my semantics, but raise you to 100,000 anyway.    
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Points: 17170 		Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote WitchMisspelled Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 02 2020 at 7:04pm

55,000 new infections today.  At this rate we'll be at 100,000 by the 11th or 12th.  

https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2020/07/02/coronavirus-live-updates-us/

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Little House View Drop Down
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Points: 1910 		Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Little House Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 03 2020 at 11:31am

Originally posted by WitchMisspelled WitchMisspelled wrote:

55,000 new infections today.  At this rate we'll be at 100,000 by the 11th or 12th.  

https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2020/07/02/coronavirus-live-updates-us/

You totally called it.  The numbers have always been up and down, so much so that this straight up is scary!
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WitchMisspelled View Drop Down
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Points: 17170 		Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote WitchMisspelled Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 03 2020 at 3:19pm

I think we're past the up and down, at least for the next couple of weeks.  
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EdwinSm, View Drop Down
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The weekend is upon us, so the numbers should go down for a couple of days,  so people can jump around and say "Look it is not that bad".   

ps. there is a danger in reading too much into one day's data....the trend is was should be watched, and for the US, the trend is not good.
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WitchMisspelled View Drop Down
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Points: 17170 		Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote WitchMisspelled Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 04 2020 at 4:00am

Edwin, I believe everyone here understands what you're talking about.  But when the U.S. is seeing a 5,000 increase per day over their previous totals over three days it is noteworthy.   Yes we'll see less reporting over the holiday weekend, but then we'll see a larger bump when those increases are reported at the beginning of next week.  
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