Tracking the next pandemic: Avian Flu Talk |
India surpasses 400,000 confirmed COVID-19 deaths |
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bradlux
V.I.P. Member Joined: May 18 2020 Status: Offline Points: 2050 |
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Posted: July 03 2021 at 10:59am |
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India has confirmed 400,000 deaths from COVID-19, half in the past two months, as the virulent delta variant infected hundreds of thousands daily. https://worldabcnews.com/india-surpasses-400000-confirmed-covid-19-deaths/ |
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carbon20
Moderator Joined: April 08 2006 Location: West Australia Status: Offline Points: 65816 |
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And that's only the "official" numbers..... Sorry for being a cynic........ Take care all 😷😉 |
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Everything we hear is an opinion, not a fact. Everything we see is a perspective, not the truth.🖖
Marcus Aurelius |
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EdwinSm,
Moderator Joined: April 03 2013 Status: Offline Points: 24065 |
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When one looks at Excess Deaths then India's total is about ten (10) times the official figure, which would bring their morality rate (ie deaths compared to the whole population) close to 3,000 deaths per million population. Other reports have indicated (earlier on) that a wide range of countries were reporting only about 10% of excess deaths as covid death, Not all countries are doing this so maybe worldwide the current death toll is about 5 times the officially announced rate, so over 20 million. This will give a mortality rate of 2.600 per million. It does not sound unreasonable as already 8 countries are reporting official data in excess of that.
Remember all those shallow graves by the sacred rivers?
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Dutch Josh
Adviser Group Joined: May 01 2013 Location: Arnhem-Netherla Status: Online Points: 95707 |
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The India numbers may soon go up again...[url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/#weekly_table[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/#weekly_table and [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/india/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/india/ . Reported cases around 40,000 per day last week...trend is "just" -6% for new cases. Deaths are going down much faster -39% of reported deaths... [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/india/india-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/919763-delta-variant-accounts-for-80-per-cent-of-new-covid-19-cases-in-india[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/india/india-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/919763-delta-variant-accounts-for-80-per-cent-of-new-covid-19-cases-in-india ; The Delta Plus variant -AY.1 and AY.2 - has so far been detected in 55-60 cases across 11 states, including Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu, and Madhya Pradesh and is still being studied for its transmissibility, virulence, and vaccine escape characteristics, Dr Arora said, according to a Union Health Ministry statement. Delta+ variant cases are going up in India. It looks like "natural immunity" may not be effective enough to limit increases. Much like the P1 variant spreading in Manaus-supposed to have high natural immunity from the first wave in 2020... [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Variants_of_SARS-CoV-2#Delta_(lineage_B.1.617.2)[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Variants_of_SARS-CoV-2#Delta_(lineage_B.1.617.2) ; In June 2021, reports began to appear of a variant of Delta with the K417N mutation.[106] The mutation, also present in the Beta and Gamma variants, raised concerns about the possibility of reduced effectiveness of vaccines and antibody treatments and increased risk of reinfection.[107] The variant, called "Delta with K417N" by Public Health England, includes two clades corresponding to the Pango lineages AY.1 and AY.2.[108] It has been nicknamed "Delta plus"[109] from "Delta plus K417N".[110] On 22 June, India's Ministry of Health and Family Welfare declared the "Delta plus" variant of COVID-19 a Variant of Concern after 22 cases of the variant were reported in India.[111] After the announcement, leading virologists said there was insufficient data to support labelling the strain as a distinct variant of concern, pointing to the small number of patients studied.[112] DJ Since testing is problematic, sequencing hardly there "a small number of patients studied" will remain a India-problem. [url]https://www.gisaid.org/hcov19-variants/[/url] or https://www.gisaid.org/hcov19-variants/ did report 162 Delta findings in India...the hope was Delta would soon become history for India...Kappa variant at least may be getting "old news"... |
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We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein |
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Dutch Josh
Adviser Group Joined: May 01 2013 Location: Arnhem-Netherla Status: Online Points: 95707 |
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The US study [url]https://www.cgdev.org/sites/default/files/three-new-estimates-indias-all-cause-excess-mortality-during-covid-19-pandemic.pdf[/url] or https://www.cgdev.org/sites/default/files/three-new-estimates-indias-all-cause-excess-mortality-during-covid-19-pandemic.pdf India lacks an authoritative estimate of the death toll from the COVID-19 pandemic. We report excess mortality estimates from three different data sources from the pandemic’s start through June 2021. First, extrapolation of state-level civil registration from seven states suggests 3.4 million excess deaths. Second, applying international estimates of age-specific infection fatality rates (IFR) to Indian seroprevalence data implies a higher toll of around 4 million. Third, our analysis of the Consumer Pyramid Household Survey, a longitudinal panel of over 800,000 individuals across all states, yields an estimate of 4.9 million excess deaths. Each of these estimates has shortcomings and they also diverge in the pattern of deaths between the two waves of the pandemic. Estimating COVID-deaths with statistical confidence may prove elusive. But all estimates suggest that the death toll from the pandemic is likely to be an order of magnitude greater than the official count of 400,000; they also suggest that the first wave was more lethal than is believed. Understanding and engaging with the data-based estimates is necessary because in this horrific tragedy the counting— and the attendant accountability—will count for now but also the future. DJ [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Partition_of_India#Independence,_population_transfer_and_violence[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Partition_of_India#Independence,_population_transfer_and_violence ; The partition displaced between 10 and 20 million people along religious lines, creating overwhelming refugee crises in the newly constituted dominions.[2][3][4][5] There was large-scale violence, with estimates of the loss of life accompanying or preceding the partition disputed and varying between several hundred thousand and two million.[1][a] The violent nature of the partition created an atmosphere of hostility and suspicion between India and Pakistan that affects their relationship to this day. This makes the present pandemic in India already more deadly in real numbers. Since British India around 1950 had 390 million population-now the Republic of India almost 1,4 billion in % the loss of life-so far-is more limited. India breaking up did kill around 0,5% of its population. Even if you would put the pandemic deaths for India today at 5 million it would be under the 0,5% of the population... But again-this pandemic is NOT over-Delta+ variant may still kill millions more in India...Most of them poor, proberbly Muslims over represented... |
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We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein |
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carbon20
Moderator Joined: April 08 2006 Location: West Australia Status: Offline Points: 65816 |
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From another news source..... The Associated Press: Research: India's deaths during pandemic 10X official toll. |
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Everything we hear is an opinion, not a fact. Everything we see is a perspective, not the truth.🖖
Marcus Aurelius |
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ME163
Admin Group Joined: September 16 2006 Status: Offline Points: 4552 |
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Talked to an old India hand the other day. He told me that his take on this was , of course it is grossly undercounted. He has family still in India and three cousins are already dead. He isn't going back any time soon. He talked to his brother in law yesterday and was told that at least 1.5 million have died from Covid alone. Josh, maybe you could do the math here. Pretty damming comment , " We have people dropping dead ". It is really bad, he fears 5 million deaths from Covid. |
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